🌏 Will Lebanon finally get a president?

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. Before we jump into today’s top story on Lebanon’s likely new president, it’s important to get ourselves familiarised with a couple of terms that describe the country’s political setup.

The first is ‘confessionals’, which refers to a system of government that’s a blend of religion and politics. It usually involves proportionately distributing power among religious communities.

The second is ‘consociationalism’ (say that quickly three times). This refers to a state which has major internal divisions among ethnic, religious, or sociolinguistic lines, but remains stable due to consultative power-sharing between the groups.

As Lebanon has seen, this last concept is often easier realised in theory than in practice.

THE HEADLINES

Biden declares state of emergency over fires.
California’s wildfires, burning since Tuesday, have now left at least five dead, neighbourhoods destroyed, and 100,000+ residents evacuated. The ongoing emergency response includes firefighting planes sent each year by Canada’s Quebec province.

China still struggling with deflation.
The consumer inflation rate hit its lowest point in nine months in December, its fourth consecutive monthly decline, as doubts persist around Beijing’s willingness or ability to stimulate the economy out of its current rut.

Venezuelan opposition calls for mass protests today.
The opposition has called on Venezuelans to take to the streets today (Thursday), as the Maduro regime ramps up security ahead of his purported re-inauguration tomorrow. Meanwhile the actual winner (ex-diplomat Edmundo González) is in Panama, transferring custody of Venezuela’s ballot tallies for safe-keeping in Panama’s central bank vault.

Global government bonds jump at sudden selloff.
The yields of US, UK, German, and Japanese 10-year bonds jumped yesterday as jittery investors sold off their government bonds (yields rise when bond prices fall). While there was no obvious trigger, investors have signalled unease at high debt levels and uncertainty linked to Trump 2.0.

A virtual briefing with Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi

Ever wondered what’s really driving US-China competition? Here’s your chance to get the inside scoop from someone who’s actually in the room. Join us for a candid conversation with Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, Ranking Member of the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party and member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

A few weeks ago, we saw footage of Aoun arriving at a local community to cheers and showers of rice from onlookers — a gesture of respect and celebration. Why?

He’s a hero to many, after expelling ISIS and al-Nusra Front from Lebanon’s border with Syria in 2017; maintaining the army’s integrity while other national institutions crumbled; and refusing to crack down when widespread anti-corruption protests broke out. To the contrary, he went viral with a speech channelling protestor frustrations.

And yet, several of our friends who’ve served in Lebanon surprised us with their reaction overnight — notwithstanding the situation above, they’re despondent. After all Lebanon has suffered over the decades, they’ll only believe this when they see it.

And see it, maybe they will.

Also worth noting:

• Aoun was due to retire last year, but Lebanon’s legislature has extended his term twice. He’s fluent in Arabic, French, and English.

• Lebanon’s 1943 ‘National Pact’ stipulates that the president and military chief must be Maronite Christian (like Aoun), the prime minister must be Sunni, and the speaker must be Shia.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: President Aliyev has accused Russia of orchestrating a “cover up” of the downing of an Azerbaijani airliner by Russian air defences last month. Relations between Baku and Moscow have always been tricky (Russia typically held closer ties with rival Armenia), but they’re now going south over this incident.

2. 🇮🇹 Italy: Iranian authorities have freed Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, after detaining her on unspecified charges since 19 December. We’ll be waiting to see whether Italian authorities now release Mohammad Abedini, after arresting him on a US request just days before Sala’s arrest above. 

3. 🇹🇭 Thailand: Bangkok has introduced a ban on the import of plastic waste, to address concerns around toxic pollution. Thailand became a top destination for plastic waste exports from the EU, US, UK, and Japan after China imposed a ban in 2017-18.

4. 🇧🇷 Brazil: According to Reuters, investigators have accused China-based EV company BYD of bringing hundreds of Chinese workers on irregular visas to build a factory in Brazil. Local authorities claim BYD was using over 150 such workers, hired via a contractor and placed in “slavery-like conditions”. 

5. 🇬🇭 Ghana: John Mahama has taken the oath of office to return as president for the third time, in a ceremony attended by around 20 African leaders. Mahama will now have to confront his predecessor’s legacy, including a deep economic crisis and debt default.

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EXTRA INTRIGUE

Diplomats on the move

• 🇺🇸 US President Joe Biden has cancelled an upcoming visit to Rome on 9-12 January as California’s wildfires spread. 

• 🇬🇧 UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will travel to China this week for finance-focused talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng.

• 🇮🇷 Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to visit Moscow on 17 January, potentially to sign some kind of comprehensive cooperation agreement.  

• 🇮🇩 Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is reportedly planning a visit to Saudi Arabia later this month to lobby for an increased quota for Indonesian pilgrims to Mecca. 

• And 🇨🇳 China’s foreign minister Wang Yi is in the middle of his yearly Africa trip, with stops in Namibia, the Republic of the Congo, Chad, and Nigeria.

MEME OF THE DAY

It’s an honour to represent your country in any form, right? Chess, sumo wrestling, diplomacy, whatever. But as the above pie chart suggests, that doesn’t necessarily mean diplomacy is:

1. Well paid (though sure, our salary report found that some diplomats do better than others)

2. Low stress (though sure, those freshly-made embassy reception dill-and-salmon canapés won’t eat themselves), or

3. Family friendly (though sure, your kids can vent to their therapists about it in several languages fluently).

DAILY POLL

Yesterday’s poll: How serious do you think Trump is about Greenland?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👀 Pretty serious, he'll make a move soon (22%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🤔 Eh, he's given it some thought (42%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🤣 Not serious, he's just trolling (32%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)

Your two cents:

• 🤔 S.G.G: “I think he fully believes in it, but it'll be another thing he says he'll do and doesn't follow through on.”

• 👀 W.H: “If Greenland indeed becomes independent, I could easily see Trump calling for a local plebiscite on a formal union with the US.”

• ✍️ B.G: “The ‘madman’ theory is at it again. Trump values his reputation as a guy who makes deals, not wars, too much to countenance invasion, but the crazy threats build pressure - the question is what Trump really wants out of Denmark. Probably preferential access to Greenland's mineral wealth for American companies.”

• 🤣 A.A: “How about we wait until he's actually in office? If we react to every speculative comment Trump makes, we're not going to survive the next four years.”