🌍 Israel and Hezbollah agree to a ceasefire

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. When I served in the Middle East, one of the responsibilities in my ‘patch’ was watching the Syrian Civil War. What that essentially meant was that I had to understand who the main players were, what their interests were, and how shifting facts on the ground impacted their hands.

In that conflict, the various parties’ fortunes waxed and waned with each development, be it major Western support for the Syrian opposition (and its associated rebel groups) or the game-changing entry of Russia in support of Assad’s regime (which ultimately regained the upper hand).

What I took away from that experience was that the pendulum can swing very quickly in times of conflict. With that in mind, let’s get you the latest on the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement, which kicked into force just hours ago.

PS - We’ll take a quick Thanksgiving break tomorrow (Thursday) and Friday, but we’ll be back in your inbox from Monday.

THE HEADLINES

China’s defence minister under corruption probe (again).
As Oscar Wilde might say, to lose one defence minister may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness. But three? According to FT, Beijing has now placed Admiral Dong Jun under investigation for corruption, following the same fate as Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe before him. There were already questions about Dong’s future after he was skipped over for promotion to China’s top military body earlier this year.

Mexico president warns of retaliatory tariffs. 
Claudia Sheinbaum has cautioned President-elect Donald Trump that slapping 25% tariffs on Mexican imports will do nothing to stem the flow of drugs and undocumented migrants, and she’s threatened to respond with tariffs of her own. Around 83% of Mexico’s exports go to the US.

Russia kicks out British diplomat accused of spying.
Moscow has accused a junior UK diplomat of providing false information when applying for diplomatic accreditation, flagging “signs of intelligence and subversive work”. The UK has denied all allegations and is threatening to “respond in due course”. Russia expelled six UK diplomats on similar espionage charges earlier this year. Meanwhile, Russia’s currency has hit a 31-month low after being hit with fresh sanctions.

Volkswagen sells controversial Xinjiang plant.
The German auto giant has announced it’ll sell its Xinjiang manufacturing plant to a Shanghai government-owned buyer. The announcement comes amid flagging China sales, new EU tariffs on China-made EVs, and criticism of China’s treatment of its Uyghur minority in Xinjiang.

EU parliament to confirm new Commission.
The EU Parliament is set to vote on President Ursula von der Leyen’s new team today (Wednesday), likely paving the way for it to take office on December 1.

In Focus: Global Plastics Treaty (Sponsored)

Focus at Global Plastics Treaty negotiations turns to health

As we head into day three of Global Plastics Treaty negotiations delegates are diving into discussions to agree, or disagree, on the Treaty’s text. Conversations will include addressing the impact of chemicals used in everyday plastics on human health.

Strong and compelling evidence links these chemicals with heart disease, neurodevelopmental issues and fertility issues. As recycled plastics have been shown to contain even higher levels of worrisome chemicals compared to virgin plastic, there will no doubt be opposition to calls that recycling is the solution to the plastics crisis.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

So what next? There are two big questions right now: first, can this ceasefire succeed where the 2006 one failed? One big factor here is really around enforcement:

• We’ve written previously about the difficulties UNIFIL faces in confronting Hezbollah, and it’ll need a major boost to turn that around.

• Then there’s the beleaguered Lebanese army, which can’t (even if it wanted to) stand up to Hezbollah without risking yet another civil war in Lebanon.

The second question is around what now happens in Gaza. And the Israelis have reportedly now reached out to Turkey (which now hosts some Hamas leaders) for help in getting the ~100 hostages released and ending that war. But it’s still hard to see Hamas giving up the one source of leverage it has left (hostages), or Israel halting its operation before achieving its other stated aim of removing Hamas from power.

Meanwhile, Iran will be watching all this nervously. This initial Hezbollah ceasefire expires five days into the second presidency of Donald Trump, who’s now openly threatening to bankrupt a regime that — with Hezbollah and Hamas both on the ropes — is now looking more vulnerable than ever.

Also worth noting:

• Both sides continued to trade fire right up until the ceasefire kicked in from 4am local time this morning (Wednesday).

• The only Israeli cabinet member to vote against the ceasefire (hard-line minister Itamar Ben-Gvir) has called it a “historic mistake”, though he isn’t threatening to pull his party’s support from Bibi’s coalition.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: Astana is welcoming Russian leader Vladimir Putin today (Wednesday) for Collective Security Treaty Organisation meetings later this week. The Moscow-led security group will pass the rotating presidency to Kyrgyzstan next year, though its influence has waned since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

2. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: London has reportedly deployed troops to protect US airbases across the UK after multiple reports of unidentified drones flying nearby, according to The Telegraph. It’s not clear who’s flying the drones, though UK military sources haven’t ruled out possible “sinister” intent.

3. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Local authorities have foiled a plot that would’ve seen over $1M in pangolin scales smuggled out of the country. The endangered pangolins, considered a delicacy in Vietnam and used in Chinese medicine, were set for transfer to China via Malaysia and Singapore. 

4. 🇨🇦 Canada: The local immigration minister has said the government is planning to reform Canada’s refugee system, looking to fast-track refusals in cases that are unlikely to be granted. The Trudeau government, which faces an uphill battle for re-election next year, has also said it plans to cut immigration more broadly.

5. 🇲🇱 Mali: The local ruling junta has pulled the plug on broadcasting network Joliba TV News after a politician used it to criticise neighbouring Burkina Faso’s own military government. The junta jailed the same politician back in 2021 after he criticized Mali’s own military regime on social media.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Some jobs brought to you by our friends at Political Risk Jobs:

• Business Development Director @ Mango Group in Tokyo

• Senior Economic Policy Analyst @ Mango Group in New York

• Associate Director of Sales @ Delectus Partners in London

• Geopolitical Risk Consultant @ Asia Trade & Risk Consultants in USA (Remote)

FLAG OF THE DAY

The Siberian town of Novy Urengoy is only home to 100,000 or so people but crucially, it’s also home to Russia’s gas giant, Gazprom. Settlement only began there in the 1970s, a few years after testing uncovered one of the world’s largest gas fields nearby.

And that might explain the town’s flag above, featuring a very Angry Birds-esque character guarding three flaming gas pipes.

DAILY POLL

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think Bessent's first task should be?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🔨 Tariffs (10%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💸 Sanctions (7%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🤝 Trade agreements (36%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⚖️ Cut the deficit (45%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write us!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• ⚖️ R.L: “Putting the US on a stronger economic footing gives it more leverage with economic manoeuvres for geopolitical interests.”

• 🤝 L.B.K: “After tarrif-ing the hell out of our biggest trading partners, might it behoove us to seek out fairer trade agreements.”

• ✍️ M.A: “What he ‘should’ do is to actually direct the US budget to the benefit of Americans and the creation of quality public services, but that is a whole other story.”