Today’s briefing:
— The message in China’s ballistic test
— New ancient city just dropped
— Yes, Your Excellency
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. It’s easy these days to get tinnitus from all the great-power shouting, so I was delighted to hear — in amongst all the dismay at China’s ballistic test — the quieter voice of Tuvalu.
The Pacific Island nation seemed almost as startled by the sudden global media frenzy as it was by the nearby ballistic splashdown that actually triggered it. But Simon Kofe, one of Tuvalu’s cabinet ministers I’ve known since we were both in Fiji, just shared some of his characteristic wisdom.
Back when the British parliament debated Tuvalu’s independence in 1978, a lawmaker remarked that if Tuvalu joined the UN, “the 10,000 people of Tuvalu will have a voice in the General Assembly equal, incredibly, to that of China.”
Reflecting on those words this week — his “frail and tiny ship of State” having long since joined the flotilla of nations — Simon notes the 1978 debate also carried a deeper promise: “that this small ship would sail as an equal, and that its size would never determine the respect it received or the consideration it deserved. That promise deserves to endure.”
Amen, Simon. So shall we see what all the fuss is about?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
20.74°C (69.33°F)
That was Western Europe’s average temperature last month, more than three degrees above the 1991-2020 average. According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, that makes it the hottest June ever recorded in Western Europe.
Testing the waters
It's an exciting day, because we've been leaked a draft of the opening scene for the next Bond film!
FADE IN: Somewhere beneath the waves off China's coast, a submarine lurks. A hatch opens. A nuclear-capable ballistic missile (with a dummy warhead… for now) erupts from the deep and arcs ~7,300km across the ocean, roughly the distance from Moscow to New York, before splashing down in international waters near Tuvalu, Nauru, and Kiribati.
CUT TO: Beijing, 59 minutes later. Xinhua declares success and celebrates its nuclear triad being "upgraded again". As the world's media begins to freak out, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson slyly tells them not to "overinterpret" the day's events.
ROLL THEME SONG: “For Your EEZs Only.”
Amazon's lawyers (yes, they own Bond now) can relax: that's no script. At 12:01pm on Monday, China really did fire its first-ever nuclear-capable submarine-launched missile across the Pacific (and its first announced submarine launch since 1988).
But you don't read Intrigue for fake entertainment-industry leaks, so let's take a look at what message Beijing's very real ballistic missile test was designed to send:
🇺🇸 To Washington
China's previous sub-launched tests were short lobs into its own coastal seas. A long-range shot across the Pacific sends a very different message: the submarine leg of China's nuclear arsenal works, and can credibly reach the US mainland.
Now to be clear, nuclear powers test missiles all the time. The US fired four Tridents in a single week last September. But the difference is process: for example, the US gives Moscow 24 hours' warning under a 1988-era pact.
China's only such pact is with Russia (a 2009 deal covering missiles fired toward each other); with the US it has nothing. One US official said Monday's heads-up came mere hours in advance, with detail "falling considerably short of standards adopted by all other P5 nuclear weapon states".
As for the timing? The test came right in the middle of RIMPAC (the US-led naval exercises desperately in need of a new acronym), and on the same day China kicked off its annual naval drills with Russia.
🇦🇺 To Canberra
Hours before the launch, Australian PM Anthony Albanese and Fijian PM Sitiveni Rabuka were in Suva signing two historic documents:
The Vuvale Union, ("Vuvale" is Fijian for "family") an A$1B+ (~US$690m) everything-treaty covering trade, climate, labour mobility, and more.
The Ocean of Peace Alliance, Fiji's first military alliance in its history and Australia's fourth ever, complete with an ANZUS-style mutual defence clause and an open door for Tonga, PNG, and New Zealand.
Ever since the 2022 China-Solomon Islands security pact set a cat among the pigeons, Canberra has been on a Pacific treaty spree, signing five Pacific treaties in 32 months, or roughly one every 200 days (pour one out for the sleep schedules of our friends in DFAT's Pacific Division)!
But here's the spicy bit: Fiji's defence minister told the ABC he'd warned China's embassy against the test. The test was long planned, but Beijing knew the signing date well in advance (diplomatically or espionage-ally), and fired that day anyway.
Beijing was clearly signalling its displeasure at a region that is seemingly tilting back towards Australia.
🏝️ To Pacific Island nations
The splashdown landed inside the Rarotonga Treaty's nuclear-free zone which is legally fine (the treaty bans nuclear explosions), but that's a relief only to the wonkiest of think tankers.
The Pacific's smallest states have spent years trying to build collective rules, culminating in the Ocean of Peace declaration, which asks every powerful country to keep their militarisations out of their moana.
To Beijing's credit, it softened the blow a little. When China last launched in 2024 (a land-fired test), no Pacific Island government got a heads-up (the Japanese and Philippine coast guards were apparently told to expect "space debris"). This time, several regional governments, Fiji among them, got advance warning.
That’s why their replies are so interesting:
Fiji merely "acknowledged" the Chinese notification.
PNG's Marape "respectfully appealed" that this be the last test by anyone, pointedly including the US, France, Japan, and the UK.
Vanuatu, which has friendly relations with Beijing, said it was "deeply troubled".
Tuvalu, right near where China aimed its test missile (hint: Tuvalu recognises rival Taiwan), registered its "grave and serious concern and disappointment."
And Solomon Islands PM Matthew Wale, this year's Pacific Islands Forum chair, and whose country signed the region's only security pact with Beijing back in 2022, said: "China's a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does."
The Forum's 18 members are now drafting a rare joint statement in response. The Australian ABC's Stephen Dziedzic predicts it'll get "watered down as consensus on this subject will be tricky."
Intrigue’s Take
China first fired a missile deep into the Pacific waaayyy back in May 1980 (with apologies to our older millennial Insiders). That test splashed down in roughly the same patch of ocean but the difference now is that Pacific Island nations have a far stronger and more sophisticated voice in regional affairs.
First, Beijing's notifications to the US, Australia, Japan and others, and its courtesy calls to Pacific Island nations, show China is keen not to look like a reckless 'superpower'. It cares what others, including small Pacific nations, think.
Second, notice that no one has run crying to Washington. That probably has a lot to do with USAID programming for five Pacific states now sitting at zero and new US embassies still being without ambassadors. But it shows "America First" messaging has been heard by Pacific Island nations and they're reacting accordingly.
Third, the day after China's test, Manila confirmed Japan will hand it five retired destroyer escorts (Tokyo's first transfer of complete warships since scrapping its lethal-export ban in April), while India signed missile, port, and critical-minerals deals with Indonesia, all aimed at diversifying away from Chinese supply.
None of the treaties, deals, or statements we've noted are a response to any single event, but rather sovereign nations acting to diversify their security arrangements, exactly as you'd expect in a multipolar world.
Which leaves the question Beijing's officials surely debated: what did the launch achieve?
Our experience as diplomats in China made us sure of one thing: when China doesn't like what's happening, they'll let you know about it. And sometimes, that's about as far as the strategic thinking goes.
Sound even smarter:
Pacific Islands Forum leaders will meet in Palau, Aug 30–Sep 4, where Taiwan also returns to the Forum dialogue after its 2025 exclusion.
One former PLA professor predicts (per The Economist) that China will test an air-launched ballistic missile within a year to publicly demonstrate the full ‘nuclear triad’.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — Bad neighbours.
Iran has just described its second consecutive night of missile and drone strikes (on Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar) as targeting “US bases and strategic centres” in response to US strikes. The unravelling of the fragile US-Iran ceasefire has sent oil prices back up into the high 70s. (BBC)
Comment: Iran is dusting off its horizontal escalation playbook — raising the costs on US allies and partners — to drive the US back to the negotiating table. With oil prices rising and US strategic petroleum reserves dropping to their lowest levels since 1983, the decisive factor could end up being closer to home.
🇮🇩 INDONESIA — Holding steady?
The IMF’s latest world economic outlook has held Indonesia steady at a projected 5% growth this year, amid mildly slower global projections over Iran, energy, and policy uncertainty. (IMF)
Comment: That’s solid news for Indonesia after a brutal few months of headlines, from a plunging rupiah to looming macro credibility concerns. The key Jakarta Composite index is also down 31% this year as both S&P Dow Jones and MSCI mull the possibility of an ‘emerging’ → ‘frontier’ downgrade over transparency concerns.
🇰🇪 KENYA — Dangote goes east.
Nigeria’s Dangote oil giant has announced plans to build East Africa’s largest oil refinery in Kenya’s Lamu, using a mix of cash, bonds, and an IPO to finance the proposed 700k barrels-per-day $17B asset. The move follows Dangote’s successful (if late and pricey) new massive refinery in Lagos. (Forbes Africa)
Comment: Lots of ambition on display here, with Kenya hustling to reduce its import dependencies, while Dangote races to build a pan-African refining footprint. The Lagos project shows the execution risks, and Dangote loves big announcements, but if successful, this could reshape regional energy security: shorter supply chains, lower logistical costs, and less exposure to international volatility.
🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA — Gulf payments freeze.
Businesses are reporting that the Saudi central bank has started randomly blocking payments to accounts based in the rival UAE. The bank itself denies this. (FT $)
Comment: It’s drawing attention because it suggests the Saudis are expanding the toxic Emirati rivalry, beyond the UAE’s shock exit from the Saudi-dominated OPEC, and even beyond their years of proxy war in Yemen, to now disrupt regular trade.
🇩🇿 ALGERIA — Apostille arrives.
The Hague Apostille Convention officially enters force for Algeria today (Thurs), enabling the rapid certification of corporate and other public documents in lieu of the more lengthy, bureaucratic, multi-step alternatives. (APS)
Comment: The treaty’s 128th member, it’s a small but practical win for anyone engaged in cross-border business, education, and migration with Algeria. But thoughts and prayers for Algiers embassies about to get swamped with apostille requests.
🇲🇽 MEXICO — You crossed a line.
President Sheinbaum has announced Mexico is investigating whether the US violated its sovereignty during the 2024 capture of Sinaloa cartel boss ‘El Mayo’. (Mexico ND)
Comment: We flagged at the time there was clearly something fishy about a top cartel boss landing at a Texas airstrip like some kind of Amazon package for waiting US law enforcement officials. Later plea deals revealed he was kidnapped and drugged by unidentified armed men. But the interesting thing for us is why Mexico wants to re-hash this now — we’ve always observed a degree of plausible deniability to protect Mexico’s successive administrations from political blowback around close US cooperation, but recent protests suggest maybe genuine lines are being crossed.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE — Patriot production.
To close the loop on yesterday’s NATO wrap, President Trump has agreed to grant Ukraine a license to make its own Patriot air-defence interceptors. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK (and popular former top commander) has published a spicy op-ed warning folks not to assume Russia has lost the war. (RFE)
Comment: The Patriots could eventually curb Putin’s long-range missile advantage plus Kyiv’s vulnerability to US bottlenecks, but it’ll take time and tech transfers to get meaningful numbers online. As for the op-ed, it’s spicy because a) it reiterates the stalemate view that got him exiled as ambassador back in 2024, and b) it matches reports in Ukrainian media that he’s told President Zelensky he’d run for the top job if elections were called. But neither leader would go easy on Russia, where the fuel crisis continues.
Extra Intrigue
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
Archaeology: Egypt’s Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities has announced the discovery of a Byzantine-era city replete with a church, watchtowers, and coins.
Biology: Researchers out of Cardiff University have found that lotion using the catnip herb is just as effective as Deet in repelling mosquitoes in Uganda.
Politics: If you’re feeling like an under-achiever, maybe don’t read this profile on how Kristrún Frostadóttir went from Yale grad to prime minister of Iceland in nine years.
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Meme of the day
From our resident meme-lord, @DickerPicss
Nothing quite hits like that first sip of the day — especially when poured by an assistant addressing you like minor royalty. Never mind that you’re a mid-bureaucrat back home, you just spent three hours getting your 90s-era embassy printer to work, and once had to settle a staff dispute on who was leaving phantoms in the restroom (all true stories btw).
Because the moment you step out into that sweet sweet formal context, you become Your Excellency, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary 🎩. Why?
‘Extraordinary’ is a throw-back to when there were two types of ambassadors: the ‘ordinary’ ones living in the host country, and the ‘extraordinary’ ones sent out on special missions (whether to negotiate a peace, or attend a royal wedding).
‘Plenipotentiary’ is the Latin flex for “I have full powers” to sign a treaty and bind a government, stemming from the days when awaiting HQ’s approval would take months (if the ship didn’t sink en route). And…
‘Excellency’ is a remnant of the old European royal court etiquette that became standard protocol after the Congress of Vienna (1815) — pure diplomatic frosting.
Plus don’t even get us started on how epic Chargé d’Affaires ad interim sounds, like you’re running some hot-sauce CIA mission, until you have to explain to dad that it literally just means you’re holding the fort while Excellency bronzes up in Bali again.
Today’s poll
What do you think about China's latest ballistic test?
Thursday’s poll: How do you feel about NATO?
⌛ It’s so over (34%)
💪 It’s so back (62%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
Your two cents:
💪 L.K: “As a European, I think NATO was basically dead on our side of the pond after the USSR fell. We simply had no reason to pay money for defense. Thanks largely to Trump (and Putin), us Europeans are finally taking defense seriously again.”
💪 J.L: “I suspect Europe has gotten the message, first expressed by di Lampedusa in The Leopard: ‘If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.’”
⌛ R.O: “The alliance will limp on, but it has been irreversibly weakened. Does any rational European think that the US will honor an Article 5 request?”
✍️ J.R: “It's Schrödinger's NATO - it is and isn't back until tested.”