Today’s briefing:
— Is NATO back?
— The US-Iran truce is “over”
— Why this station just went off air
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Your Insider’s briefing:
— Is NATO back?
— The US-Iran truce is “over”
— Why this station just went off air
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Spend enough time in San Francisco and someone will eventually drag you to Mission Chinese. My last visit there I somehow ended up with the cookbook, which opens with this Anthony Bourdain banger:
“What follows is not just a cookbook. … It’s also a story — a uniquely American one — of how to do everything wrong and have it end up brilliantly, gloriously right.”
Forgive the parallels, but this week’s NATO summit in Turkey is giving off some of that same chaotic American energy: rule-bending, tradition-defying, seat-of-the-pants improvising.
Whether it all comes together into something brilliant or just ends up a hot mess… well that’s what we’re here to find out.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
$1.4 trillion
That’s what tech giant Meta claims it could lose if four of the US states suing it on teen mental health grounds prevail in a federal courtroom from next month.
Tor-NATO
The NATO family photo. Look closely and you’ll legit see Macron rocking shades again.
Forget the usual joint communiqués and family photos. This year’s NATO summit in Ankara might’ve just hit peak “it’s complicated”. Here are 4 reasons why, starting with…
"It’s a great plane, it’s the best, currently the best plane by far and it’s certainly something we will consider.” - 🇺🇸 President Trump
Which plane? Not the Spruce Moose, but Lockheed Martin's F-35. And Trump issued that praise above while standing with Turkey's Erdogan, suggesting the US president could consider green-lighting F-35 sales to Turkey.
Why so spicy? It was actually Trump 1.0 who ousted Turkey from the F-35 program back in 2019, after the Turks ignored US warnings about buying Russia's S-400 air defences — there were fears Turkey’s S-400s could scan and map the F-35’s stealth profile for Moscow.
So… is Trump lifting his own ban because Turkey ditched its S-400s? Lol no.
He suggests it's about rewarding Turkey's — and Erdogan's — loyalty. Or if you want to read any strategy onto this, it might be a way to pull polyamorous Turkey westward, or throw shade at less-loyal Europe (though Turkey likewise curbed US basing against Iran).
Anyway, whatever the rationale, F-35 sales to Turkey would mean new drama with...
Congress, which holds the keys and has bi-partisanly objected until Turkey both ditches its S-400s and plays nicer with...
Israel, which views the sale as a direct threat to its own F-35 edge over a region that still only partly recognises its right to exist.
And of course, fellow NATO member (and Turkey rival) Greece is also peeved.
So then... why doesn't Turkey just ditch its S-400s, which have proven pretty weak-sauce for Russia? Well Turkey likes options (hence 'polyamorous' above), and there are rumours of some kind of loophole, like quietly transferring its S-400s to a third country. Plus Ukraine has been a vivid ad for the risks of relying on the US for air defence.
Speaking of which...
"This is Russia's last major advantage. Europe urgently needs its own capability to produce anti-ballistic systems and the missiles they require.” - 🇺🇦 President Zelensky
Ukraine’s Zelensky has arrived at this year's summit in a much stronger position: his long-range strikes (now on Russia's largest refinery) have triggered worsening gas queues, while the frontline barely moves — Putin just claimed a Donbas town, but we’ve seen this movie before: he also claimed Chasiv Yar last year and is still there bleeding troops today!
So with things curdling, Putin is now leaning into his one last advantage, which involves long-range missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in hopes folks will lose their will to defend. Zelensky pays for US air defences but production isn’t keeping up, so he’s asking for licensing to make more interceptors locally in Europe.
No word yet on Trump's response, but here's NATO's response to President Trump...
“NATO 3.0 is rising — and buying American.” - Mark Rutte
That’s NATO's chief (and former Dutch PM) in an opinion piece, arguing Europe is finally heeding years of US (particularly Trump) pressure for a stronger, more balanced alliance.
And by way of proof, allies have used this summit to announce $50B in new arms, but the sharpest proof might actually be NATO’s new Defence, Security & Resilience Bank. After months of rumours, eight nations have now joined Canada as founding members: Latvia, Luxembourg, Turkey, Albania, Belgium, Greece, and Romania, plus Ukraine.
The new bank aims to mobilise $130B in private capital to help turn NATO’s lofty spending pledges into actual production, while Ukraine's membership looks both practical (drone leadership) and symbolic (absent actual NATO membership).
"The Americans, we have heard them loud and clear: take more responsibility of your own defence." - 🇫🇮 President Stubb
Finland's well-groomed leader says the US message has been loud and clear, but the formal notification of a US planning drawdown across Europe actually came quietly back in May, when the Pentagon notified allies of a 5,000 cut to US troops, a one-third drop in US fighter jets, and a 42% drop in maritime reconnaissance aircraft!
It's about the US reprioritising towards China the Indo-Pacific, but the challenge is not emboldening an expansionist Russia in the process. Europe is racing to plug many of the gaps, but the reality is several US gaps are currently irreplaceable: think long-range strikes, aerial refuelling, and high-end ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance).
And if NATO's conventional deterrent gets weaker, the alliance realistically has to lean more on its nuclear deterrent. And absent full faith in US commitments, that realistically means more emphasis on French and British nukes as Europe's ultimate insurance policy.
Intrigue’s Take
So… did this chaotic NATO summit somehow still end up being brilliantly, gloriously right? At least two of the leaders might actually argue yes.
First…
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Intrigue’s Take
So… did this chaotic NATO summit somehow still end up being brilliantly, gloriously right? At least two of the leaders might actually argue yes.
First, Erdogan not only gets to play statesman-host for the alliance’s 32 world leaders (plus guests like Korea’s Lee), but he also gets the world’s main superpower hitting ctrl-z on a major arms block (the F35) in return for… not much? It’s hard to think of a clearer illustration of Turkey’s multipolar prowess: host West, buy East.
Second, President Trump gets to claim victory, too — his years of frustration towards European slow-walking continue to bear fruit (whether you find that fruit bitter or not): while the Pentagon converts his vibes into actual drawdowns, Europe continues to fill US gaps. Plus absent any Turkish concessions, we wonder if this F35 dangle is partly pressure on Israel to get it playing ball on US-Iran talks (which hinge on an Israel-Hezbollah truce).
But third, the bigger picture points to a NATO hurtling towards a more transactional, less predictable future: maybe the end result is a stronger Europe less beholden to a distracted America. But in the interim, there are gaps among NATO members feigning loyalty while practicing hedging, plus gaps between a US drawdown and Europe’s immediate ability to step up. And anyone trying to break an alliance always starts by testing those gaps.
Sound even smarter:
One of those US gaps we flagged above relates to deep precision strike capabilities. And in breaking news, the UK has just announced a new $50B 10-year program with a dozen NATO members to level up Europe’s arsenal.
As Putin’s fuel crisis continues, his government bond yields have spiked 200 basis points in a month, while Moscow’s benchmark MOEX is down 13%.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — Back to war?
Oil prices just spiked 6% after President Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire “over”, amid another round of strikes after the UAE blamed Iran for more hits on Hormuz shipping. The US has also suspended a temporary licence for Iranian oil sales. (Guardian)
Comment: We’ve long flagged the fragility and even implausibility of this truce, but time will tell if it’s now actually over or if the force-backed posturing continues. In the meantime, we’re struck by the resumed willingness of the Emiratis to publicly call Iran out, and wonder if it heralds another hardening back against détente with the mullahs.
🇮🇳 INDIA — Delhi goes electric.
Building on last month’s announcement of a new work-from-home order each summer, Delhi’s city authorities have now flagged they’ll also start banning petrol rickshaws and scooters to cut the city’s notorious smog. (Times of India)
Comment: A guru in Intrigue’s group-chat (thanks TC) recently noted that these kinds of measures, while headline-grabbing, will do little to address the core driver behind Delhi’s pollution, which is really more the crop burning out in the Punjab. We’d love you to join our chat — become an Intrigue Insider today!
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — Back in the game?
The same week Russian missiles demolish more apartment buildings in Ukraine’s capital, the International Olympic Committee has lifted its ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes, meaning they can now compete at the 2028 Summer Olympics in LA. A decision on whether they can fly the Russian flag is still pending. (NYT $)
Comment: What changed? Putin is still clearly trying to invade his neighbour, and his anti-doping agency is still suspended because of its role in… doping. Rather, the IOC a) accepted the Russian committee’s claims that it no longer covers Russian-occupied Ukraine, and b) changed the rules to hold that athletes shouldn’t be punished for their government’s actions. Or to put it another way, it’s prioritising inclusion over accountability, though that won’t help the Ukrainian athletes already killed or maimed in Putin’s invasion.
🇫🇷 FRANCE — Guess who’s back.
Populist-right opposition figure Marine Le Pen has reiterated she’ll run in next year’s presidential elections, after a court upheld her embezzlement conviction but ruled she remains eligible to stand. The court’s order for her to wear an electronic bracelet, however, is now suspended pending an appeal. (France24)
Comment: With her National Rally currently leading in the polls, this is arguably a dream outcome for Le Pen: it neutralises a big legal threat to her candidacy while still validating her own branding as a victim of the flailing establishment. While we’re on Europe’s right, UK firebrand Nigel Farage has announced he’ll resign then recontest his seat amid scrutiny of a $10M “gift” from a Bangkok-based crypto billionaire.
🇲🇨 MONACO — Bombing suspect found dead.
Ukrainian authorities have arrested two men — including a member of Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence — over the murder of a woman suspected in last week’s Monaco bombing targeting a Ukrainian-born oligarch. Interpol had just issued a Red Notice for the woman, who’d reportedly received crypto from the men. (FT $)
Comment: The timing (post-Red Notice) suggests someone wanted her silenced; the payment (crypto) suggests an attempt to avoid a paper trail; and the alleged role of an HUR officer points to a possible state-linked motive (the oligarch is Russia-friendly). The fact authorities have publicly arrested a serving HUR officer suggests it was either a rogue operation (eg, in service of a rival oligarch), or they’re throwing him under the bus to contain the scandal. Either way, it won’t help Ukraine’s EU bid.
🇨🇴 COLOMBIA — Transition suspended.
Populist-right president-elect ‘El Tigre’ has suspended his incoming transition process in response to the populist-left Petro’s refusal to accept the election results. El Tigre is now openly accusing President Petro of trying to cling to power, and has urged soldiers to ignore any unconstitutional orders ahead of next month’s inauguration. (AP)
Comment: Absent any evidence of electoral fraud, it’s all turning into a major test for Colombia’s institutions, and clips El Tigre’s momentum — presumably the point.
🇱🇾 LIBYA — Talk of talks.
According to Reuters, Pakistan has begun mediating between Libya’s two rival factions amid a wider US push to stabilise the country. (Reuters)
Comment: The US has long wanted to counter malign influences seeking to fill the voids in Libya — and both factions probably see Pakistan as a more credible regional mediator than (say) Turkey and Qatar, who openly back the Tripoli faction, or the Emiratis, who back the rival Tobruk-based faction instead.
Extra Intrigue
Meanwhile in other worlds…
Tech: Microsoft has announced layoffs affecting 4,800 employees, or roughly 2% of its global workforce.
Science: Researchers at the University of Minnesota say they’ve created a synthetic cell from scratch (though critics describe it more as an impressive chemical machine).
Film: Christopher Nolan’s screen adaptation of Homer’s ‘The Odyssey’ epic is reaping enthusiastic early reviews.
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Message of the day
Translation of a message broadcast on Hungarian public TV.
Normally when leaders interrupt your favourite program to deliver a message to the nation, it’s because they’re going to war, resigning in disgrace, or denying hanky-panky.
But not this time. Yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon, Hungary’s main public TV channel replaced its news broadcasts with the above message (in Hungarian obvs), apologising for the network’s role in pumping propaganda under the recently-ousted Orbán strongman.
The country’s new-ish centre-right leader Péter Magyar campaigned on a pledge to reform public media.
Today’s poll
How do you feel about NATO?
Yesterday’s poll: Which do you think Japan should tackle first?
📉 Interest rate gap (13%)
🛢️ Oil dependency (24%)
👶 Demographic decline (41%)
🔨 Manufacturing edge (11%)
💸 Fiscal pressure (10%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
👶 A.E: “Japan has resisted large-scale immigration, relying instead on automation, higher female workforce participation, and delayed retirement. But as the population shrinks and ages, those measures are becoming harder to sustain on their own.”
🛢️ D : “Japan’s reliance on foreign oil is a deadweight holding them back.”
👶 L.B: “All of these must be addressed and prioritized, beginning with demographic decline. Japan has long tried to keep out foreign influence, and will need to embrace a more international solution.”