Today’s briefing:
— Is the G7… back?
— INDOPACOM is back
— World’s funniest zoom call
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Is the G7… back?
— INDOPACOM is back
— World’s funniest zoom call
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Before we get to today’s briefing on Évian (more G7 summit than fancy bottled water), a heads-up — in a few short hours we’re recording our first monthly AMA with Intrigue’s ex-diplomats!
Sure, we’ll answer queries about Russia, China, diplomacy, and beyond. But anything could happen:
I might reveal the shocking true story behind my “ambassador wants a puppet show” meme
Our CEO John might reveal how diplomats stay shockingly calm amid all the global chaos (spoiler: it’s definitely the Old Fashioneds), and
Our co-founder Helen might be pouring the kind of piping-hot, weapons-grade diplomatic tea you only get from yeeeeeaars on the inside.
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Quote of the day
“I can’t give you any forward guidance about what we’re going to do next. The good news is we’ll be meeting in six weeks.”
That was newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh after presiding over a decision to hold rates steady. Nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers now expect at least one rate hike this year.
Summit’s gotta give…
There’s an interesting air of elation mixed with relief coming from the French town of Évian-les-Bains, where G7 leaders just wrapped their annual summit. Reminder, that’s the annual meeting of seven major advanced economies (🇺🇸🇨🇦🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇯🇵).
Why so happy? Let’s find out, in their own words.
“This G7 is objectively a success” - French President, Emmanuel Macron
There’s nothing surprising about a world leader who literally claimed his thoughts were “too complex” for journalists, also immediately declaring his own summit a success.
But in this year of our Lord, it’s genuinely impressive that nothing at this G7 went wrong! No public tongue-lashing, no mid-summit walk-out, no viral Trump vs the World pic (though this ‘Trump alone’ pic has done the rounds).
In fact, the group even managed to find enough common ground to issue joint communiques covering spicy topics like Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific!
As the sole German in the friends group (Chancellor Merz) put it, characteristically bluntly, “this is the first time since president Trump took office that we have issued a joint declaration at a G7 summit and found common language on the major foreign and security policy issues of our time.” Trump himself agreed, noting “we found a great deal of unity”.
“We commend Ukraine for its resilience and progress on the battlefield in recent months and emphasize there is now a new momentum.” - G7 statement on geopolitical issues
That’s a huge vibe shift from last year, when the G7 couldn’t even jointly utter the word ‘Ukraine’ amid strong Trump 2.0 pushback, which was ostensibly to protect the peace talks.
Why this vibe shift? It’s thanks partly to Ukraine itself, rapidly developing and deploying its own long-range missile and drone capability that’s now fried so much of Putin’s energy infrastructure, he’s now having to import seaborne gasoline from Asia!
Drone tech has also helped Ukraine rebrand as more of a free world asset than liability.
And maybe the White House is also processing the notion that Putin was only ever using those peace talks to distract and divide the West while continuing his attacks.
But does a G7 vibe shift really matter? Well yes in the sense that…
These key economies no longer see backing Ukraine’s self-defence as a lost cause
They’ve instead vowed to boost support while baking more Russia sanctions, and
Trump himself is also now pressuring Putin (not Zelensky) to make a deal, while hinting he might soon reimpose the Russia sanctions he waived amid Iran.
“Reducing global imbalances could facilitate achieving more durable and balanced growth.” - Leaders’ statement on resilient growth
This year, the G7 also pumped out a statement dedicated to “a more balanced, durable, resilient growth”. Translation? It repeats the word ‘imbalances’ 13 times (!), so it’s really all about China, whose epic overcapacity continues to rattle and divide the G7.
It rattles because no G7 factory can compete with China’s subsidised tsunami, and
It divides because the pain — and urgency to push back — hits Europe unevenly.
So… does this G7 statement solve that problem? No, but it’s still a big step, adding public momentum to what’s now emerging in private: rather than keep getting picked off alone via China’s threats to tariff cognac, cars, or whatever else, Germany is now reportedly backing France’s push for more of a US-style joint tariff and quota wall. That might enable the survival — and diversification — of Europe’s industrial base.
“We aim to significantly reduce our dependencies on a single supplier outside the G7 and partner countries for rare earths and permanent magnets to under 60 per cent by 2030” - Leaders’ declaration on critical minerals
Amid China’s quasi-monopoly over the supply of the critical minerals we need for energy, defence, tech, and beyond (leverage China has now flexed on several occasions), this G7 response is pretty remarkable. Sure, it pledges some familiar answers on the supply side: think more mines, plants, recycling, stockpiles, and diversification.
But it also pledges some big stuff on the demand side, flagging a willingness to actively tilt demand towards diversified and recycled supply, rather than just hoping the market sorts it out — it’s this that theoretically generates guaranteed offtake, the single biggest thing new mines and plants really need before they can get off the drawing board.
Intrigue’s Take
We were honestly joking internally about the inevitability of having to pen yet another G7 obituary this week, so we’re a little stunned to be here doing the Robert Redford nod instead. But it leaves us wrestling with two big downstream questions…
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Sound even smarter:
No global summit is complete without some spicy hot-mic moments. Our faves this year have included the WHO chief congratulating Italy’s Meloni for kicking her smoking habit; Brazil’s Lula flaming his FM for arriving early; and Meloni’s young daughter stealing the spotlight by actively avoiding it.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN - Signed, sealed (?), delivered.
President Trump has signed the interim peace deal with Iran at a sparkling ceremony at Versailles, building on an earlier e-signature (yay Docusign). The 14 points feature Iran pledging to reopen Hormuz and not to pursue nukes, while the US commits to ease sanctions and develop a $300B investment fund for Iran. (CNBC)
Comment: History buffs will recall Versailles is (ahem) hardly the most auspicious place to sign a peace treaty. There are still so many unknowns (including most of the ones we flagged Monday), a full assessment might not be possible for years. Until then, it seems pretty clear the world’s most powerful nation just embarked on a costly war only to a) fail in its stated aims (end the regime, its nuclear program, and its missile output), b) produce a *less*-free Strait of Hormuz (Tehran just reiterated it’ll now charge a ‘fee for service’), and c) get a deal that could be worse ($300B fund anyone?) than the Obama-era JCPOA that Trump spent years mocking (though he told G7 leaders “we’ll go right back to dropping bombs” if Iran doesn’t play ball).
Moments ago, Trump also just pointed to oil and stock prices as the real win, though that’s some vintage goalpost shifting. If DC wants a silver lining, maybe this deal frees it up to focus on even tougher challenges from China, though China might think it just got a vivid display of the limits of US power.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Nameplate diplomacy.
The Pentagon has officially dropped the ‘Indo’ from the name of America’s largest and oldest combatant command, restoring the Hawaii-based outfit to its original ‘US Pacific Command’ (PACOM) name. (Department of War)
Comment: You might be wondering… who cares? It has zero impact on PACOM’s size (375k military personnel) or coverage (52% of the Earth’s surface). But it does undo the INDOPACOM switch that actually occurred under Trump 1.0! So it’s got tongues wagging that if *adding* ‘Indo’ was reportedly a way to highlight India’s growing role in responding to China, then maybe *ditching* the ‘Indo’ is now a way to signal a quiet recalibration of the US approach after Trump and Xi committed to “constructive strategic stability” last month.
🇩🇪 GERMANY — BMW beeps the horn.
BMW has issued a brutal profit warning, implying a ~60% drop for the luxe giant’s core automotive segment. It’s citing a collapsing China market, where combustion-engine sales plunged 39% in May amid the Hormuz energy crunch. (BMW Group)
Comment: It’s not just BMW, of course. Europe’s entire luxury auto sector is getting crushed by competition from (and in) China. And yet it's not just China, either. BMW has made plenty of its own mistakes along the way, pivoting late to EVs and launching the occasional lemon. Still, it’s one reason why Germany’s Merz was so spicy at Évian (G7 briefing above), declaring (🇩🇪) "we are dealing with an economy whose currency is undervalued by between 25 and 30%. This is a massive competitive disadvantage that we must address, and we have agreed to do so".
🇧🇮 BURUNDI — Warning lights.
Speaking at a virtual summit of African leaders in Burundi, the head of the continent’s CDC has warned that the current Ebola outbreak in eastern DR Congo could become the worst in history. He’s warned of tens of thousands of untraced contacts, attacks on health workers, and major gaps in the response. (CNN)
Comment: This is Congo’s 17th Ebola outbreak since 1976, though already the worst ever for this Bundibugyo strain (which has no dedicated vaccine… yet). Conflict and underfunding are turning this one into a serious test for both regional coordination and international funding.
🇯🇲 JAMAICA — Please hold.
Jamaica is now in talks with the US to accept up to 25 third-country nationals deported from America every fortnight. (Independent)
Comment: Joining Trump 2.0’s expanding network of Caribbean transit partners (like St Kitts, Dominica) would give Jamaica a bit of financial relief and case-by-case control, while the US clears its backlog of unlawful arrivals refusing to return home voluntarily — the theory is they’re more likely to agree once the US door is closed. But of course, many locals aren’t thrilled at the idea of their island becoming a regional waystation for a Trump 2.0 deportation machine.
🇺🇿 UZBEKISTAN — Critical gold rush.
Tashkent has unveiled a major new $4.2B program of 120 projects to expand its critical minerals production and move up the value chain (more processing). (TCA)
Comment: This is one of the more serious diversification plays coming out of Central Asia right now, and the timing (see G7 briefing above) is impeccable for anyone trying to position themselves as a credible non-China supplier.
🇯🇵 JAPAN — Time for a rethink?
Following the government-owned Development Bank of Japan’s decision to lift its own restrictions last month, several major Japanese commercial banks are reportedly now rethinking their long-standing de facto ban on lending to arms-makers. (NikkeiAsia)
Comment: It’s another quiet but significant crack in Japan’s postwar pacifism amid China’s historic military buildup just over the sea. These banks will be weighing Japan’s security environment against their own reputational risks. But if they pivot, it could unlock serious capital for Japan’s growing defence sector.
Extra Intrigue
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
Energy: Total costs (LCOE) for battery storage stations have now fallen below gas-fired power plants for the first time, as a turbine crunch drives gas costs up while oversupply plunged battery prices 40% last year.
Music: South Africa’s jazz legend Abdullah Ibrahim, who famously played at Mandela’s historic 1994 inauguration, has passed away in Germany, aged 91.
Aviation: In a world-first, Australia’s flag carrier (Qantas) has announced it’ll start flying direct from Sydney to London via its new fleet of A350-1000ULRs next year, in a non-stop 22 hours.
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Zoom call of the day
We made this using screenshots from the original.
When your city needs more tourists, what do you do? Well South Korea’s seventh-largest city (Ulsan) decided to strap a junior official to its newest roller coaster, deploy a green screen behind him, and see if he could dial into a team zoom without anyone noticing.
And it worked! The resulting video has racked up tens of millions of views across multiple platforms, as young Nam Young-sik tries desperately to keep a straight face while being hurtled at 40kph (25mph) through the city’s new ‘Whales Cart’ ride.
By the time he starts getting thrown violently out of frame, his colleagues start to doubt his “I just opened a window” excuse, and the whole all-hands collapses into hysterics.
Our point? Other than ‘hah’, maybe we all need humble Ulsan to remind us that sometimes connecting with people is less about the latest stilted diplomatic grip-and-grin, and more about a junior official just getting absolutely rag-dolled on a whale coaster.
Today’s poll
Do you think this G7 harmony will last?
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think this Albania resort will happen?
🚧 Yes, too many powerful interests want it (47%)
🦩 No, too many locals oppose it (51%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
🦩 S.L: “Especially with pressure coming from the EU re: Albania’s bid to join, it’s not just protestors anymore.”
🚧 J.V: “They'll publicly apologize, wait for the attention to shift elsewhere, then resume building more quietly.”