Today’s briefing:
— So who won the US-Iran war?
— Snakes on a plane (Mexico edition)
— Italy’s hot new snack
Your Insider’s briefing:
— So who won the US-Iran war?
— Snakes on a plane (Mexico edition)
— Italy’s hot new snack
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. I’ve been out of the formal diplomacy game for three+ years, but my home is still adorned with a few reminders.
I only mention this because two of those quiet companions (both British nationals) recently shuffled off this mortal coil after an extraordinary innings. One was the legendary NYT correspondent Alan Riding (82), who penned a masterful portrait of Mexico (Distant Neighbours) the year I was born — it’s so good, it was still at the top of the foreign service reading list when I started as a baby diplomat in Mexico a quarter century later.
The other was from when I shifted back north for a few years in LA, and was lucky to see the quintessentially Californian A Lawn Being Sprinkled (1967) by pop art legend David Hockney (88): those perfect LA lawns, the bright spray of water, the pure California sunshine. It was on loan from the (now late) sitcom maestro Norman Lear, so I tracked down a humble museum print rather than somehow find a cool $30M to buy it.
Anyway, these are two different windows into two different worlds from two very different lives, each departed within a few days of the other. Vale Alan and David.
Shall we now look at the newly-announced US-Iran peace deal?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
~18,000
That’s now the margin held by Peru’s populist-right Keiko Fujimori, with 99% (~18 million) counted. Leftist Roberto Sánchez is contesting ballots, though seemingly not enough to halt a Keiko win (with a legislative majority), so markets are now pricing in her business-friendlier stance: stocks are up 8% for the week, and the sol has hit its highest since 2020.
Pens down.
After 107 days of will-they-won't-they, Iran and the US now say they just did. It’s all moving rapidly among heavy spin, so we’ve pieced recent days together to present...
🕊️ What we know
The US and Iran have agreed an interim deal to end their war, with a ceremony set for this Friday in Geneva. Until then, these two foes say a deal is already in force, including for an immediate end to the fighting, and an immediate end to the Hormuz blockade!
So that's that, right? Well maybe no, that's not that, because...
🇺🇸 The US also claims…
a) Hormuz now goes back to being "toll free"
b) "there will be no nuclear weapons in Iran"
c) there will be only limited sanctions relief for Iran, and
d) Iran will get no money (ie, no unfrozen funds) upfront.
And that's pretty intriguing because…
🇮🇷 Iran claims...
a) Hormuz will only reopen "under Iranian arrangements" (with Oman)
b) those "arrangements" mean Iran's "sword” will now hover over Hormuz forever while it charges
protection moneya fee for "services rendered"c) sanctions relief includes immediate oil revenues, an initial $12B in unfrozen funds, another $12B in 60 days, plus word of a $300B reconstruction fund, and
d) it also means an immediate end to Israel-Hezbollah fighting (though Israel has cautioned it’s not party to any US-Iran deal, and made this clear by launching more Hezbollah strikes just as Trump was drafting his big peace tweet).
So right there you can see some pretty, pretty, pretty big gaps between US, Israeli, and Iranian claims, or at least their domestic spin. And that's before we look at what we don't yet know, including on some minor issues, like, I don't know....
Nukes? Trump has warned the US will restart attacks if Iran doesn’t reach a nuclear agreement soon, implying there's no deal yet. But Iran is still only reiterating its long-running pledge not to get nukes, based on an old fatwa that was never written down and is still subject to the mullahs’ maslahat (‘greater good’) theology of regime expediency.
Oh, and as for a) how that pledge gets verified, b) what happens in a breach, and c) the fate of Iran's uranium enrichment and stockpiles? All deferred to talks within 60 days. Then what about…
Missiles? There’s also silence around Iran's missile range, stockpiles, and production, and Iran has long treated its entire program as non-negotiable anyway. Why? Ask its battered neighbours what the regime’s theoretical doctrine of deterrence has now meant in practice for the region’s airports, energy infrastructure, tourist attractions, national icons, desal plants, and general hub status. There’s also a big question mark around…
Proxies? The regime’s red-lines are similar to its missiles approach above: do as we say or our missiles friends will hit you. But is there anything stopping Iran from again using its oil sales and unfrozen funds to prop up and expand groups like Hamas (Gaza), Hezbollah (Lebanon), the Houthis (Yemen) or the dozen+ others across the region? That’s unclear.
So, all that to note… amid all the coming victory laps, keep in mind this entire announcement is still younger than Zendaya, shorter than DeVito, and hazier than Ye.
Intrigue’s Take
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Sound even smarter:
Israel’s Netanyahu has yet to issue a post-deal comment, though his defence minister (Katz) is reiterating Israel will hold “indefinitely” the Lebanese turf seized while pursuing Hezbollah, and his natsec minister (Ben-Gvir) is reiterating this US-Iran deal doesn’t bind Israel (though Ben-Gvir is from another party and has a history of rogue lines to rally his base).
Anger in India continues to swirl around last week’s US strikes that left three Indian nationals dead aboard a tanker seeking to break the US blockade. The foreign minister (Jaishankar) called Rubio about it on Friday.
Markets were already pricing in their deal hopes, but watch for lower oil prices and higher equities today (Monday) once trading resumes. Lower oil prices will also mean more pain for Putin ahead.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇫🇷 FRANCE — G7 kicks off.
World leaders are now descending on the French town of Evian-les-Bains for today’s G7 summit kick-off. Non-G7 guests include India’s Modi, Brazil’s Lula, Kenya’s Ruto, Korea’s Lee, and Ukraine’s Zelensky. (AP)
Comments: Based on the G7’s recent track record, the biggest ‘win’ for most leaders might simply be avoiding Trump’s crosshairs rather than solving any specific problem.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Not for you.
The Trump administration has used natsec export controls to order Anthropic to block all foreigners (including its own non-US employees) from its most advanced AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: Giving off major ITAR vibes (strict rules around US rocketry), the official reason is fear that foes could use this AI to exploit US vulnerabilities, though it’s reviving two other debates: first, whether DC is still punishing Anthropic for pushing back on the Pentagon; and second, what it means for US competitiveness — EU politicians are already citing this as more proof the bloc needs to curb its US reliance, while shares in China’s own ‘Zhipu’ AI pioneer just surged 48% today (thanks to a JP Morgan target upgrade, though investors saw this Anthropic news as a tailwind).
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA — Gang leader dead in US strike.
President Trump has announced a US airstrike in Venezuela killed Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, leader of the Tren de Aragua gang. (France24)
Comment: It’s notable that Venezuela is confirming it participated in the operation, revealing a new dimension to Caracas-DC ties in the post-Maduro era.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE — Putin attacks church.
Russia’s latest attacks on Kyiv have killed at least another four and damaged the UNESCO-listed Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra monastery, founded back in the 11th century. Meanwhile, President Trump has held separate calls with both Presidents Zelensky and Putin for his 80th birthday (Sunday), discussing how to end the war. (CNN)
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — Yoink.
The Brits have seized a tanker belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet as it was sailing through the English Channel. The tanker had been expelled from the Cameroonian registry, leaving it effectively stateless. (Guardian)
Comment: A single seizure might seem a drop in the barrel (~700 shadow tankers transport ~75% of Russia’s oil), but the goal is to raise the cost for owners who might increasingly wonder if it’s worth losing everything just to help Putin evade sanctions.
🇨🇭 SWITZERLAND — No population cap.
Initial results suggest a 53% majority of Swiss voters have rejected the big referendum proposal to cap the country’s population at 10 million. (EuroNews)
Comment: The result still seems close enough — and high-profile enough — to inspire a few copy-cats among other societies and governments grappling with how to optimise their immigration settings.
🇨🇩 DR CONGO — Trying to pull a fast one?
Security forces have dispersed a group of protesters opposing a feared attempt by President Tshisekedi to run for a third term. Lawmakers just passed a bill that’d allow constitutional amendments (such as on term limits) via referendum. (Reuters)
Comment: Tshisekedi has long been soft-launching the idea of hanging around, warning conflict in the east would make it impossible to hold elections by 2028, and flagging his openness to a third term if that’s what the people want. Hah.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
British road authorities have misspelled Worcester on a sign.
A Hong Kong high-rise has no elevator after someone stole its steel door.
Snakes on a plane, but this time for real on a Tui flight from Mexico to the UK.
Three Argentine football fans just biked 18,000 km (11,000 mi) to Kansas City.
And Canadian authorities have arrested a guy for kayaking under the influence.
Snack of the day
Original pic from Eurac Research, updated via our own bad photoshop.
It’s normal to be passionate about your hobbies, but we’ve always been suspicious of anyone passionately making their own sourdough, and now we’ve got the data to prove it.
An Italian/Egyptian-led group of scientists just baked a batch of sourdough using yeast scraped right out of Ötzi the Iceman’s 5,300-year-old mummified guts!
Why?? This particular cold-adapted yeast strain has survived and thrived in glacial temperatures for more than five millennia. That’s highly unusual, and potentially opens all kinds of more energy-friendly applications across dairy, biotech, cleaning products, and beyond (beer).
Today’s poll
Who do you think most 'won' the US-Iran war?
Thursday’s poll: Do you think President Xi will get his three wishes?
[to qualify, host, and win a FIFA World Cup by 2050]
⚽ Yes (38%)
🟥 No (60%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (2%)
Your two cents:
🟥 S.H: “2 out of 3 are possible. FIFA will want to grow their Chinese market so hosting makes sense. But winning?! Nope, that's not something even China can achieve by throwing money and people resources at.”
⚽ T.B: “The Olympics have shown that China can produce world-class athletes given enough time.”
✍️ S: “🤷Predictions are hard. Especially about 24 years into the future!”