Today’s briefing:
— Airline diplomacy
— Serbia’s musical chairs
— Singapore loves fines
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Airline diplomacy
— Serbia’s musical chairs
— Singapore loves fines
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. An ol’ friend was once appointed ambassador to Chile. Clutching a diplomatic passport still smelling of fresh leather, he boarded Chile’s sold-out flag carrier in business class feeling pretty pretty pretty pleased with himself.
That was right up until the jet crossed 30,000 feet, and a flight attendant emerged from the galley balancing a tray of freshly shaken pisco sours.
My buddy was already licking his lips, not just for this cocktail but the new ambassadorial adventure it heralded. But the jet caught a pocket of turbulence, sending that entire tray of piscos flying directly into seat 1A. That’s the seat where — profuse apologies and freebies notwithstanding — our newly minted ambassador then had to spend the next 12 hours soaked in sticky, citrusy humiliation.
To his credit, the ambassador — all class — took it as a well-timed splash of pre-posting humility, which brings us, naturally, to the geopolitics behind London’s big Skytrax World Airline Awards.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
1,500+
That’s how many shipping containers Pakistani authorities have placed around Islamabad in a bid to stop a planned protest calling for the release of opposition leader, former PM, and cricket star Imran Khan. He’s been imprisoned since 2023 on convictions (which he insists are political) around corruption and incitement.
Plane and simple.
Soft power used to be a panda and a concert pianist. But these days?
Look at London's Langham Hotel last week: industry insiders love to quip that the annual Skytrax World Airline Awards are "the Oscars of aviation", but that only makes sense if the CEO of Delta, like, slaps the event MC over a spicy legroom joke, or the chair of Cathay, say, crowd-surfs the banquettes like Roberto Benigni.
Rather, these airline awards poll 25 million passengers across 100+ nationalities about 300+ airlines, evaluating everything from boarding flow to cabin service.
And last week in that London ballroom, for the 25th year, the Skytrax founder opened an envelope to reveal that the year’s best carrier is...
🇸🇬 Singapore Airlines (#1)
Reclaiming the crown from the Qataris for a sixth win, this news is less about fast wi-fi or tasty satay, and more the fruition of Lee Kuan Yew's big bet back in 1975: that's when the city-state's founder overruled his own advisors and instead opted to sink a frightening 11% of his entire GDP into building what is now Changi Airport.
Why? He understood that a tiny island with no natural resources had its best shot if it could embed itself into global trade. So these days, Singapore handles nearly 2% of the world's international passengers, and the aviation sector underpins ~12% of Singapore's entire GDP when you include flow-on tourism, logistics, and the like.
That's really why this Skytrax award is a big deal for Singapore — yes, it collects rent on all that traffic, and treats each Airbus like a flying embassy projecting the national brand with every steamed towel, but that's all still really downstream of passenger preference, which Singapore still sees as a moat against...
🇶🇦 Qatar Airways (#2)
Unlike the Singaporeans, the Qataris are sitting on staggering natural wealth: we’re talking 11% of the world's proven natural gas, worth ~$12T at today's prices.
So why spend the last two decades and $100B+ building this vast new aviation empire? Yes, luxury cabins and mega-hubs are — like the 2022 FIFA World Cup — a prestige flex and a way to diversify away from gas.
But for Qatar, aviation is also an insurance policy in a ruthless neighbourhood.
How ruthless? Recall the Saudis, Emiratis, Bahrainis, and Egyptians only lifted their blockade on the Qataris in 2021, irked at how Qatar funds political Islam, wields Al Jazeera news, and ~cosies up to Iran. The Saudis reportedly even drafted invasion plans, and hinted at a massive new border canal filled with nuclear waste (!) to "transform the small terrorist state of Qatar into an island"!
So… how does champagne-on-takeoff help?
Funnelling 30 million foreigners through your peninsula is basically a way to hope the world becomes more aware of — and invested in — your survival. You’re almost buying witnesses, though weird how those witnesses can lose enthusiasm once you start strip-searching random women or fending off Iranian missiles.
Anyway, if Singapore and Qatar are two small states using aviation to project out, let's see what happens when a massive power uses an airline to project inwards...
🇭🇰 Cathay Pacific (#3)
Hong Kong's podium finish completes a remarkable comeback. Recall that the storied airline got caught in the crossfire back during the city's massive pro-democracy protests: when flight crews joined the march, Beijing threatened the carrier with crippling mainland bans unless it fell into line.
So as top execs then got purged and dissident staff were fired, Hong Kong plunged into strict Covid lockdowns and the chaos saw Cathay slide out of the top tier.
But after a few years of damage control, Cathay is now back, not so much as that same symbol of free-market Hong Kong, but as something closer to Beijing's commercial tether. By 2021, the Party's five-year-plans were formally designating Hong Kong as China's "international aviation hub".
Beijing didn't name-drop Cathay specifically, but it didn't have to: Cathay controls ~half of Hong Kong's seat capacity, and state-owned Air China owns a 29.99% stake in Cathay with four board seats — that’s effectively a veto over any major calls, even though British conglomerate Swire Pacific remains the controlling shareholder.
All that to say that, arguably, Cathay's role is now less about projecting Hong Kong to the world, and more about anchoring it into not just China generally, but its 86-million-person 'Greater Bay Area' specifically: aka, a trusted carrier to convince foreign capital you’re still open for business, just, you know... on mainland rules.
Then let's wrap with an airline helping project unapologetically outwards...
🇹🇷 Turkish Airlines (#5)
It's no accident the Turks now hold the record for flying to more countries than any other carrier on Earth: we're talking 130+ and counting. It’s the same reason Turkey also now has the world's third-largest embassy network.
That reason? It’s President Erdogan's attempt to reframe Turkey not as Europe's periphery, but as the world’s "Afro-Eurasian power": a central, non-aligned nexus between Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
So the Turks have now quietly built a spiderweb network connecting ~350 emerging world destinations direct to Istanbul, establishing Turkey as the primary broker for the Global South. It's almost like the foreign ministry itself is selling seats.
So all that to say that yes, soft power is still a panda, dear Intriguer. And sure, it’s also still about sipping vintage Krug between bites of Caspian caviar in a Qsuite getting hurled through the atmosphere at Mach 0.82.
But it's also a layover you cannot reroute. It's 30 million annual witnesses to whatever stunt the Saudis or Iranians might pull next. It's a commercial leash on a free market enclave. And maybe it’s even a land-grab for a modern empire.
Intrigue’s Take
For us, there were two big elephants in that London ballroom. The first was…
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Intrigue’s Take
For us, there were two big elephants in that London ballroom.
The first was vulnerability: these big national aviation strategies seem genius until the skies close down, something long unthinkable but now weirdly routine: ~20% of European airspace is now closed due to conflict, while Western airlines are shut out of another 30% of broader Eurasia.
And that’s just outright conflict, btw — look at how a single virus turned Changi into a ghost town, or how the 2017 Saudi blockade flipped Qatar’s profits into losses by forcing longer, costlier detours. If hubs hoped to build influence via indispensability, a more volatile world now risks transmitting more vulnerability instead.
Which brings us to the second elephant in that London ballroom, the absences: Western Europe (think Britain’s de Havilland Comet) and the US (Boeing) literally birthed the jet-age, and yet today these two poles are missing from the rankings with the noble exception of Air France at #7. Why?
It’s partly just because the economic centre of gravity has shifted East: gone are the days when the transatlantic New York to London route ruled the skies. Today’s high-growth, high-margin routes sit across places like South Asia, East Africa, and East Asia, leaving spots like Dubai or Doha the natural midpoints for 80% of the world’s population within an eight-hour flight.
But for legacy US carriers, competing for international traffic is also just a brutal, capital-intensive distraction from aviation’s most profitable gig on earth: milking their own monopoly over the world’s most profitable domestic market. When deciding where to deploy that next $200M widebody, another Dallas-DC run usually yields higher margins than a riskier 12-hour ocean trek against petrostates. There’s a similar dynamic for Europe’s airlines, by the way, though they also deal with more aggressive carbon mandates and fiercer labour disputes.
But maybe all that to paint a picture why ~seven of the top 10 are now state-backed. They can afford to wait 50 years, and are chasing a prize beyond shareholder returns. And yet, while that prize was a brilliant play amid hyper-globalization and open skies, it could now go either way in the decades ahead with neutral hubs either a) becoming more critical in a low-trust world, or b) getting squeezed from all sides.
But that’s not to endorse the US strategy, either. Sure, American carriers can ignore international prestige because their domestic fortress pays the bills. But while that size and insulation can keep the US industry more resilient to global shocks, it also suggests this superpower has quietly retired from the battle for the skies (among other domains) instead content to leave it to the statecraft of others.
Sound even smarter:
The top 10 airlines included 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇭🇰 Cathay, 🇯🇵 ANA, 🇹🇷 Turkish, 🇦🇪 Emirates, 🇫🇷 Air France, 🇨🇳 Hainan, 🇯🇵 Japan Airlines, and 🇰🇷 Korean Air.
Other notables include 🇬🇧 British at #23, 🇺🇸 Delta at #25, 🇪🇹 Ethiopian at #36, 🇨🇱 LATAM at #42, and 🇮🇳 Air India at #57.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇨🇳 CHINA — Summit dust settles.
The White House has clarified it has “no plans” to sell US arms to China, after Ambassador Perdue told Fox that President Trump floated the off-the-cuff (and unlawful) idea to China’s Xi during their DC summit. (The Hill)
Comment: Strip away the theatre and pandas (now lounging at Zoo Atlanta), and much as we foreshadowed, this summit delivered little beyond a brief trade truce extension which, to be precise, Bessent announced beforehand. Btw, that extension seems intentionally timed for January, right after their next chats at Xi’s APEC summit in November then Trump’s G20 summit in December. From our reading, it suggests a) a deal isn’t close enough to become announceable at either summit, and b) kicking the can to January maximises the likelihood each leader now attends — rather than boycotts — the other’s big day. The result is each now locks his leverage over the other (Trump’s tariffs, Xi’s rare earths) right through the end of the year. The other report that grabbed our attention involves claims that Xi tried to pry Trump away from backing US allies in Japan; even raising the idea suggests Xi feels pretty emboldened.
🇷🇸 SERBIA — The ol’ Vučić switch.
Embattled president Aleksandar Vučić has abruptly resigned ahead of next month’s high-stakes elections. But don’t mistake this for surrender: taking a page out of the Putin and Erdogan playbook, Vučić is termed out as president, so is basically shifting the seat of power back to the prime minister’s office to restart the clock. (France24)
Comment: Credible polling suggests it’s neck-and-neck, with a student-led opposition movement within striking distance of ending the ruling nationalist party’s 14-year grip on power. We wrote about Vučić’s balancing act here.
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — Terror plot thwarted?
British authorities have arrested five men near a Fairford airbase after intercepting three suspicious vans, now being examined for explosives. (Telegraph)
Comment: Given Iran’s prior warnings against bases (like this one) facilitating US operations, it raises the prospect of an Iran-linked plot that could make it trickier for the UK’s new PM Burnham to steer clear of the conflict. The other question is around intel: President Trump says these guys were firmly on the radar, but they only seem to have been picked up after a farmer spotted them en route home from a party! It all comes just as Brent crude spikes back to $107 on Trump’s announcement that he’s dismissed a ceasefire proposal that might’ve reopened Hormuz. Trump has reportedly told staff he’ll resume hits on Iran shortly.
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA — Tensions on the line.
Seoul’s joint chiefs and the US/UN Command are investigating whether an explosion that injured three South Korean soldiers in the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) was the result of newly laid North Korean landmines breaching the military demarcation line. (Reuters)
Comment: The DMZ is a powder keg at the best of times, but this comes just as the South’s President Lee describes as “deeply regretful” 🔥🔥🔥 the move by Ukraine’s Zelensky to reveal more captured North Korean soldiers just got transferred to the South; Seoul prefers to keep this stuff low-key to avoid giving the autocratic North a pretext for more escalation.
🇨🇭 SWITZERLAND — Neutral, but not that neutral.
More than 70% of Swiss voters have rejected a referendum that would’ve enshrined a stricter definition of neutrality into the nation’s constitution. The failed measure would’ve permanently banned Switzerland from cooperating with military alliances or joining non-UN sanctions. (DW)
Comment: Since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the Swiss have walked a fine line by mirroring EU sanctions beyond the UN (where Russia enjoys a veto). Hardline traditionalists had wanted to right that wrong and avoid getting drawn further into the conflict, but a 70% rejection suggests folks are choosing pragmatism over dogma in a volatile Europe.
🇧🇷 BRAZIL — Betting ban.
President Lula has abruptly banned all fixed-odds sports betting and online casinos. (Guardian)
Comment: He’s framing the move as an urgent moral and public health intervention to stop poorer households losing their welfare checks, but the timing is hard to miss — just days out from this Sunday’s high-stakes election, it’s a play for Brazil’s many evangelical voters who see gambling as a vice.
🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA — Massacres.
Police are investigating two separate mass shootings that’ve left at least 27 dead, just hours apart. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: You can guess the motives based on each location: the Wedela tavern attack might’ve been part of the turf war between illegal gold-mining syndicates, known locally as zama zamas. The Lwandle attack looks more like a turf war between rival protection rackets. But with South Africa’s murder rate now hovering near 20-year highs, public anger is now boiling over at what folks see as a deeper erosion of law and order.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
Netflix’s new animated show for kids has been a big hit… with dogs!
OpenAI has fired employees caught training ChatGPT with AI.
Asia Games organisers have apologised after playing the North Korean anthem for South Korea’s hockey team.
British MPs will investigate their country’s recent “dismal record” at Eurovision.
And an interactive art piece has transformed a Seattle store into an ‘inconvenience store’, featuring items such as pre-jumbled USB cords.
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Fine of the day
Singapore is known for many things: its incredible food, futuristic architecture, and yes, its love for fines. Forget to flush a public toilet? That’s a fine. Visibly walk around naked in your own home? Another fine. Feed wild pigeons? Fine. Selling gum? Fine. Sip of water on the subway? Fine. Flying a kite that interferes with traffic? Getting weird here but still, another fine.
It all gives off peak Larry David energy, but there’s now more: as of last week, if you place your feet on the bus seats or crank your tunes too loud? That’ll be a fine.
Today’s poll
What's your favourite airline?
Last week’s poll: Have you ever had an embarrassing incident at a high-stakes event?
🤢 Yes (tell us your story!) (13%)
😊 No, thankfully! (87%)
Your two cents:
🤢 E.K: “I once ended up in the background of an interview with Colombia’s former president Gustavo Petro, eating pasta while standing at the buffet and not even realizing I was in the frame. I still worry about this becoming a meme.”
🤢 T.V: “Got gassy while taking notes at my Director-General's bilateral with another country's ambassador. It was a small quiet room. Everyone heard it. Someone even stopped mid-sentence.”
🤢 M.D: “Working at a non-profit at the time, we held a fundraising event where then Mayor Rahm Emanuel was speaking. I was standing in an observation role near the breakfast buffet. As I moved, a woody flower arrangement on the buffet caught my suit coat, pulling the large vase with hundreds of glass beads over. The sound of the beads hitting the glass table and then the cavernous event space floor was unrelenting, and the spreading of beads everywhere, like ripples on the surface of water. Fortunately, no guests fell. Mortifying!”
PS — shout-out to the group-chat’s SzKB for today’s Receding airline subject 😄. Become an Insider and join the banter!