Today’s briefing:
— Serbia’s celebrated war criminal
— Germany’s shock election result
— Make Africa big again
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Serbia’s celebrated war criminal
— Germany’s shock election result
— Make Africa big again
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Philosopher and historian Ernest Renan once used his famous Qu'est-ce qu'une nation? (What is a nation?) lecture to describe nations as “daily plebiscites” that only work if we agree to remember some things, and misremember others.
That was back in 1882, and he was talking about his native France, but boy does it feel apt as we explore whether a big funeral might’ve just cost Serbia its EU membership bid.
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Number of the day
$54B
That’s how much capital Beijing is now pumping into eight state banks and insurers — mostly via special treasury bonds plus a cheque from the tobacco monopoly — to fortify balance sheets against a sputtering economy. Don’t confuse this for a 2008-style stimulus ‘bazooka’ — it’s more a defensive recapitalisation to absorb bad loans.
The procession harming accession.
The late Ratko Mladić during a hearing at The Hague.
Serbia's capital of Belgrade put on quite the show yesterday (Monday).
After an 84-year-old's flag-draped coffin arrived home on a government jet, troops marched his body to St Luke's, weaving through large crowds schlepped into town on free buses. Top government ministers — plus an honour guard, three-volley salute, and military band — were there to bid him zbogom via Serbia's biggest public funeral in decades, with even Serbia's top Orthodox patriarch giving his blessing.
So the deceased must’ve been a great guy…?
Well (ahem) it was actually Ratko Mladić, the 'Butcher of Bosnia' who’d been serving life in The Hague for leading Europe's first genocide since WWII.
And all the pomp around his funeral might've just cost Serbia its EU dream.
Why?
First, the crime: as Yugoslavia collapsed in the 1990s, Mladić orchestrated a campaign of ethnic-cleansing to carve out a 'greater Serbia', culminating in his brutal siege both of Bosnia's Sarajevo capital, while overrunning the UN's Srebrenica 'safe area': he reassured the town's mostly-Muslim refugees they’d go unharmed, but he then went and executed 8,000 men and boys over five days.
So... what's with Serbia’s hero treatment? That takes us to...
Second, the myth: many nationalist Serbs like to start the clock earlier with a highlight reel of Serb victimhood, first under the Ottoman empire then Croat fascists, until Yugoslavia's collapse risked stranding them as a minority in someone else's state. Against that backdrop, nationalists lionise Mladić as a defender, and skip his crimes via a mix of denial, gloss, and they-started-it (several Bosniak commanders also ended up in The Hague). But then...
Third, what's this got to do with the EU?
Serbia then spent 16 years pretending not to know where Mladić was hiding, even though he was getting schlepped to Belgrade football matches by state bodyguards, and paying weekend visits to his wife and kids.
As the bounties got higher (the US chipped in $5M) and his political protectors started losing power, Mladić's security got tighter. But in the end he got nabbed not by a bounty-hunter, but really by Brussels: the EU made clear that joining the bloc would mean handing him over, so in 2011, Serbian cops just followed Mladić's kids to a farm hideout where their old man was keeping bees!
After years of declining health, he died last month in a UN prison hospital in The Hague, still serving life for genocide.
But okay, then...
Fourth, why did Serbia just give him such a massive funeral?
Aleksandar Vučić, who has run Serbia since ~2012, is now walking a familiar line: he's terrified of alienating his own hardline base ahead of next month's elections.
But the EU is Serbia's biggest trade partner and official donor, with mere 'candidate status' enough to give foreign investors confidence. And yet while barely a ~third of voters now still even want to join the EU, ditching the bid altogether would not only cost him economically, but also politically (among Serbia's cities and youth).
And you can see that dilemma in the way Vučić just played Mladić's funeral: the president himself didn't attend, but everyone else did (including his own son); he insisted it was just a family-run affair, but it somehow got a state jet and full honour guard; he withheld official ‘state funeral’ status, but broadcast it live on state TV.
So...
Fifth, did Vučić's gambit work?
In Brussels, no. The EU's 'enlargement commissioner' (quite the title) flamed the whole spectacle as incompatible with European values and cancelled her scheduled visit, while other European capitals dunked on this insult to Mladić's many victims.
But the EU itself is caught in its own trap: it needs to keep dangling that sweet sweet membership carrot to pry Belgrade away from Moscow and keep the bloc's broader allure alive. And yet how much veneration of a genocidaire can a democratic bloc stomach, and at what point does all Serbia's nationalist pageantry just expose the hollowness of the entire candidate label?
Okay, but... did Vučić's gambit at least work at home in Belgrade? Well that's tbc — he literally just moved to call next month’s elections the same day as Mladić's funeral, presumably hoping for a nationalist bump in the polls.
And he'll need it — it depends which polls you want to believe, and who paid for them, but several suggest maybe he's no longer so untouchable.
Intrigue’s Take
Is it just us or does this whole episode feel…
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Intrigue’s Take
Is it just us or does this whole episode feel strangely familiar?
For years, Turkey’s Erdoğan played a similar game with Brussels (and Brussels played it back, to be clear): string those accession talks along just enough to retain those factories, funds, and a dash of extra legitimacy, while the democratic guardrails start wobbling at home. Maybe Vučić is just running the Balkan edition.
There’s a historical echo, too: Serbia’s Vučić acknowledges a “terrible crime in Srebrenica” but won’t utter the word “genocide”. Ditto, Erdoğan’s high-water mark in addressing the Ottoman empire’s ~million dead Armenians was his 2014 speech on the 99th anniversary of those deportations, lamenting the “inhumane” consequences but ultimately noting it was merely “our shared pain.”
Both men have hardened their instincts as nationalists and their scepticism as democrats, hastening — but also leveraging — the quiet demise of their EU bids. True integration would hurt (reform, transparency), but keeping the ‘candidate status’ zombie alive offers the best of both worlds: the German autoplants keep humming, the Brussels grants keep flowing, and the tariffs stay low.
It’s a cynical dance but again, the EU is a willing dance partner here, terrified of admitting its own enlargement fatigue, or acknowledging the chance its grand project might really be stalling, not just via gridlock back home but also a shorter queue abroad, if not just easier options being offered by the Kremlin or Beijing.
And is this cynical dance, dear Intriguer, not a solid preview of the multipolar years ahead?
Sound even smarter:
Vučić was a cabinet minister under Slobodan Milošević, the nationalist president who ultimately died in The Hague while fighting charges of genocide in Bosnia, and various other crimes across Croatia and Kosovo.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇦 UKRAINE — Morning after the ‘peace express’.
Trump envoys Witkoff (property tycoon) and Kushner (son-in-law) did Moscow on Saturday, Kyiv on Sunday (their first), then shipped out just as Putin resumed putting ballistic missiles into Kyiv apartments. (CBS)
Comment: Witkoff and Kushner cited “encouraging” progress, but they’ve been saying that for years. Putin meets them (and not the CIA’s Ratcliffe) because they bypass standard US institutions and thus caution, while enabling the Kremlin to play peacemaker. Putin’s more interesting move might be his reported parallel withdrawal from a big chunk of Ukraine’s Lyman — proof he (or at least his minions) will just back down when forced.
🇩🇪 GERMANY — Shock in the east?
The centre-right’s Chancellor Merz has ruled out any resignation talk after the populist-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) came first in Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt state elections, doubling its vote with a 44% result. Falling short of an outright majority, and with major parties ruling out a coalition, the populist-left’s small BSW might now emerge as kingmaker. (DW)
Comment: It’s a humiliation for Merz, whose Christian Democrats saw their share of the vote cut in half. But there’s value in looking beyond the shock headlines — one credible pollster found ~80% of AfD voters showed little or no extremist tendency, instead citing immigration, security, the economy, and an east-as-second-class rage. But that’s not to suggest the AfD is moderate — authorities have formally classified parts of the AfD as extremist. Rather, together with a solid haul of previous non-voters and even ex-CDU (Merz) voters, it suggests the AfD is connecting with folks beyond its traditional base. That’ll put further pressure on Merz to shift right and blunt the AfD’s appeal, just without alienating his own base.
🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA — Houthi attacks.
The Iran-aligned Houthis have just hit four Saudi cities, leaving several oil facilities damaged and more than 70 people wounded. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: Another escalation in the low-boil conflict that’s now pushed oil prices back close to $100, it leaves the Saudis in a tough spot — swallow this and advertise that the world’s swing producer can’t keep its own plants online, or retaliate hard but get pulled right back into the Yemen hole they spent years escaping.
🇨🇦 CANADA — Messy divorce.
Ottawa’s $20B in retaliatory tariffs went live just after midnight this morning (Tuesday), hitting US steel, aluminium, timber, apparel, appliances, farm kit, electronics, and more. (Globe and Mail $)
Comment: Canada clearly has some leverage and agency here, but following through on this threatened retaliation is still a spicy move for an economy shipping 70% of its exports south, and without the kind of rare-earth ‘kill switch’ that forced Trump’s back-down on China. Polling suggests America’s bruised Canadian neighbours and allies are ready to absorb pain to defend the flag, and no doubt Trump will ratchet that pain higher rather than watch Canada join China in open defiance. But Canada’s single largest (by far) export to the US is actually its unique oil and related products — and Trump can’t realistically tariff that without hurting refineries in Texas and Louisiana.
🇫🇷 FRANCE — Ladies first dispersed.
The Eiffel Tower has now reopened after staff walked out in protest over a weekend visit by one of India’s more conservative Hindu movements, which reportedly asked Tower staff to limit “interactions with women”. The ‘BAPS’ movement has apologised for the incident, which reportedly saw female staff pulled off Tower posts and swapped for men. (Le Monde)
Comment: BAPS is close with Prime Minister Modi, who just inaugurated the group’s new Paris temple this week! And Modi has in turn been the object of an Élysée balance away from the US and China. But even if just a one-off, this incident is arguably still a glimpse at the tension between Modi’s Hindutva and France’s laïcité. And it’ll be catnip for France’s populists claiming Europe has forgotten how to defend its values.
🇧🇷 BRAZIL — Judge v judge.
Two judges on Brazil’s all-powerful supreme court have turned on one another, with Mendonça demanding suspension for Moraes pending a probe into his links to a disgraced banker, while Moraes wants Mendonça investigated for his handling of the probe into Moraes! (Independent)
Comment: Nobody’s coming off well here, and the whole thing risks denting the court’s credibility and legitimacy *just* as Brazil’s institutions brace for a re-litigation of Brasilia’s 2023 storming, courtesy of next month’s elections again pitting Lula against Bolsonaro (junior). Moraes, already a polarising figure (recall his Elon spat, or his lead role in the Bolsonaro trial), is facing pressure to resign.
🇮🇩 INDONESIA — Volcanic ash clears.
Jakarta’s biggest airport and four others are now back open, three days after volcanic ash from Anak Krakatau filled the skies and grounded over 340,000 passengers. We might not be in the clear yet, as the volcano recorded another three eruptions earlier today (Tuesday). (CNA)
Comment: ‘Anak’ means ‘child of’, so ‘Anak Krakatau’ is basically the cone that grew from Krakatoa’s 1883 catastrophe. These eruptions are brutal for an archipelago like Indonesia. Ash is effectively just microscopic glass that melts in jet engines, which is why a volcano 150km away can still close the capital, with ripples not only across international tourism but also domestic supply.
🇩🇿 ALGERIA — Look at my subs.
The Algerian navy has posted an unusual promotional video of one of its Russia-built subs firing cruise missiles as part of a Mediterranean test. (BIA)
Comment: Sure — in this world of ours, it’s another day, another flex. But this is part of a long-running defence-spending spree by Algeria, now Africa’s top spender, as jihadis seize turf to the south, rival Morocco pushes its advantage in the west, and relative disorder still wracks Libya to the east.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
Hungary just held its annual grave-digging contest.
US scientists have developed underpants to track your farts.
Someone just stole the equivalent of 70,000 pints of Guinness in England.
Australia’s parliament just celebrated 125 years of the national flag by… accidentally flying the flag of New Zealand.
And while we’re Down Under, Aussie police are using footage of an emu chase to attract new recruits.
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Map of the day
The Equal Earth Map shows Africa’s true size relative to other continents.
The UN voted 164-1 last Friday in favour of Togo’s ‘Correct the Map’ resolution, which basically argues we should stop using Gerardus Mercator’s 1569 projection.
Fellow West Wing nerds will recall that, in a bid to maintain straight navigational lines, the Mercator projection makes Greenland look like a continent while Africa (14 times larger) comes off as a modest peninsula.
The truth, of course, is Africa is bigger than ~Western Europe, the US, China, Japan, and India… combined! So critics argue the old Mercator map ends up giving a smaller sense of Africa’s (and Latin America’s, South Asia’s) weight, needs, and potential, while over-indexing on Russia, which is actually half the size of Africa!
Friday’s vote doesn’t purport to ban Mercator, nor does it mandate that new Equal Earth (2018) map above. But it does “encourage” everyone to get on board.
So… who voted against? The US (which would cop ~1.5x shrinkage if ditching Mercator) dismissed the vote as the UN wasting time debating “map projects from the 16th century” instead of resolving actual global crises.
Six others abstained: Estonia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova, Serbia, and Ukraine. They’re all variously more focused on Putin’s war, with little interest in irking the US.
Maps are always political things, so maybe the real news here is that Friday’s resolution passed so easily?
Today’s poll
Do you think the EU will keep getting bigger?
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you think Bessent is overstepping in telling the BOJ to hike rates?
🏦 Yes, it's about sovereignty and central bank independence (75%)
🇯🇵 No, what happens in Japan affects us all (22%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
🏦 M.L: "Something can be true without justifying action — what happens in Japan affects us all, but Bessent involving himself is an overstep.”
🇯🇵 M.D.F: “If markets tank everywhere because the BOJ doesn’t raise rates, we all pay.”
✍️ C.N: “Bessent’s fixation on the BOJ along with the buyback of longer dated Treasuries makes it seem like he is starting to privately panic about the longer term rates. The pressure seems like it is probably going too far but also looking for a scapegoat for rising rates.”
PS — shout-out to ‘TC’ in the group-chat for today’s Serbia’s EUlogy email subject! 🔥 Become an Insider and join the chat today!