Today’s briefing:
— A Canada-EU marriage?
— Why Warsh hiked
— This auction is criminal
Your Insider’s briefing:
— A Canada-EU marriage?
— Why Warsh hiked
— This auction is criminal
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Someone made the joke that Canada joining Europe is giving major “cousin needs the spare room because things got weird back home” energy.
Not sure I can better that, so shall we explore what this headline is all about?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Quote of the day
“The inspiration I believe Greece can offer is that reforms may be painful at first, but they ultimately pay off — both politically and economically.”
That was Greece’s finance minister (Pierrakakis) in an interview with Germany’s Handelsblatt business daily, politely declining to offer any “advice” to Berlin, though still generating buzz in a country that was long the one forcibly “inspiring” Greece.
Will EU be mine?
Wait, Canada’s joining the EU??!!
Okay that’s just clickbait (did we do it right?), but something interesting is going on.
The Wall Street Journal ran a weekend exclusive claiming Canada had put out feelers among EU leaders on the possibility of closer ties. It’d even come with a high-sounding new name: ‘Associate Member of the European Union’ 🎩.
But the suspense was over by Wednesday, when the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen used her State of the Union address to tell Canada’s Mark Carney (sitting in the audience) that, “I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to be the first associate member of the EU”, prompting thunderous applause and a Carney hug.
So what — and we cannot stress this enough — is going on?
Chapter 1 - The perfect couple.
Canada once had it all: Céline on the radio, double-denim on a Saturday, and the exquisite luxury of living right next door to the world’s biggest customer and military power who also happened to be an ally and relatively benign superpower.
Canada’s export strategy was basically “point the truck at Michigan”, with three quarters of its stuff duly heading south, and turning the world’s longest undefended border into something more like a giant checkout counter. But…
Chapter 2 - Things head south.
While even the best neighbours can be annoying (leaf blowers), standard irritants like Canada’s dairy and timber rules soon got caught up in something much bigger: a US more prickly at feeling like the world’s mark, ushering in an America First pivot that’s recast allies as freeloaders and dictators as misunderstood uncles.
For Canada, that’s looked like random jibes as the 51st state, plus sky-high tariffs to tilt trade ties back towards what Trump 2.0 deems fair. But those talks have now again collapsed amid duelling claims that…
Canada sprung a last-minute demand for truck tariff exemptions, and
The US wanted a veto over Canada’s other trade deals, presumably building on USMCA’s Art 32.10 poison pill if anyone starts a “non-market” (China) FTA.
So we’re now back at duelling escalatory tariffs to maximise pain on the other (aka a trade war), which brings us back to our original story…
Chapter 3 - Canada branches out.
Carney, a former central and investment banker, is hardly naïve about what this trade war will cost Canadians, but he’s banking on a few cushions including…
US dependence on Canadian energy, potash, and auto-parts
National solidarity to absorb the pain and defend the flag, and
Some serious hustling to diversify Canada’s partnerships, asap.
On that last one, Carney just wrapped his country’s first Canada Investment Summit, is pushing what he bills as the rich world’s lowest tax on new investment, and has launched a Major Projects Office to unstick big mines and pipes.
But that’s also where this new EU headline comes in: details are scant, ‘Associate Member of the EU’ is not a ‘thing’, and European capitals are irked von der Leyen didn’t run it by them first. But it’s all looking like a new brand for various talks to…
Plug Canada’s energy and critical minerals into Europe’s industrial base
Cooperate more across visas (live-and-work?) and data centres, and
Just generally extend a polite, middle-power middle-finger to Trump 2.0.
So rather than marriage, it's a classic ‘friends with benefits’ situation — very 2026.
Chapter 4 — Happily ever after?
Not so fast.
A decade on, the existing Canada-EU trade deal still isn’t fully ratified because France, Italy, and others keep dragging their feet — those European farmers can sniff out foreign competition like truffle pigs. Plus Carney’s careful comments suggest he’s mindful not to appear to Canadians like he’s just swapping a DC veto for a Brussels directive.
But Europe and Canada can clearly also sniff an alignment here, both in interests (hedging against a moodier America) and values (democracy and rule-of-law), making them a natural pairing — it’s called a trauma bond, look it up.
So keep an eye on what comes out of their big Canada-EU summit in francophone Montreal next month — one early win could see the European Investment Bank moving to deploy part of its massive balance sheet into Canadian resources.
Meanwhile, President Trump is already calling the whole thing a possible “hostile act”, and threatening “very heavy tariffs on Europe” if the intentions are bad.
Intrigue’s Take
We’ve previously said that Canada trying to diversify away from the US is a little like you trying to diversify your solar panels away from the sun towards Alpha Centauri instead. Sheer commercial physics can be a brutal master.
But also…
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Intrigue’s Take
We’ve previously said that Canada trying to diversify away from the US is a little like trying to diversify your solar panels away from the sun towards Alpha Centauri instead. Sheer commercial physics can be a brutal master.
But also, doing nothing — and being seen to do nothing — while that massive sun suddenly starts withholding those sweet sweet rays? Clearly not a viable move either.
So if we’re going to torture this energy metaphor a little more (and you bet we will), maybe this chapter of EU-Canada flirtation is like a backup generator. Fine, let your Saskatchewan ball-bearing manufacturers keep aiming their trucks at Michigan. But it’s a good idea to ensure they have options — and maybe even a few phone numbers — for when they suddenly wake up to find the US market off limits.
For Europe, meanwhile, we only just explored the perils of the bloc’s own geography, in the form of an EU candidate country somehow holding a massive public funeral for a convicted genocidaire. In fact, it’s hard to think of a better example of the limits of running your bloc like some neighbourhood waiting room with a questionnaire. Rather than that old-school all-or-nothing approach to EU enlargement — with sheer proximity such a flawed screening test — why not see what’s possible with someone else offering more of what you need and value.
And maybe that “why not” is where we’ll leave things, because as the US steps back, we think you’ll see more “why nots” in response: a proliferating kind of à la carte alignment of capitals getting more flexible and targeted and even polyamorous as they try to shield themselves from our wild new world.
Sound even smarter:
Canadians see the US as a bigger threat than Russia, according to one poll.
Canada already has a series of pay-to-play arrangements involving the EU, including joint procurement financing under the $175B SAFE defence framework, and the $100B Horizon science and tech program.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Warsh hikes anyway.
Gold prices have eased 1% after Trump-appointed Kevin Warsh oversaw his first rate hike, with the Fed’s famous dot chart implying another before year-end. The unanimous move was the Fed’s first hike in three years. (Reuters)
Comment: So much for any expectation that Warsh might deliver cheap money to appease his White House benefactor. Faced with stubborn inflation and rising global yields, the Fed chose credibility over cover.
🇮🇱 ISRAEL — Treason at Venice Film Fest?
Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced two new government bills aimed at stripping citizenship from anyone who slanders Israeli soldiers, plus increasing defamation damages against them. It’s a response to directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor, whose NAZA documentary on mass Gaza casualties just debuted in Venice to critical acclaim. (Guardian)
Comment: President Herzog is already dismissing the revocation bill as a legal non-starter, but the announcement will be another classic Streisand Effect, simply drawing more attention to the film (… like this). So… why? It looks like classic Bibi politics ahead of next month’s high-stakes elections, tapping culture-war and existential talking points to animate his base.
🇹🇼 TAIWAN — Quick overseas visit.
The coast guard is planning Taiwan’s first government vessel trip to the Philippines since a naval goodwill visit in 1974 (before Manila cut diplomatic ties in 1975). Slated for October next year, it’s a signal of solidarity in the face of a more assertive China in their shared region. (Taiwan News)
Comment: This is Manila playing China’s own ‘grey-zone’ game: with full-blown Taiwan drills a non-starter, coast guards are the answer — not quite a navy, but more than a courtesy call, and precisely calibrated after years of China using its own white hulls for expansionist naval aims. Our only question is why Taiwan and Philippines gave so much notice: plenty of time and space for Beijing to now ramp up pressure in response.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Rumour mill.
Did Xi Jinping stroke out at the BRICS summit in Delhi?! Did Huawei’s billionaire founder skip town ahead of Beijing’s strict new exit controls?!! Did Xi’s old rival Bo Xilai escape prison?!!! There’s zero evidence for any of these claims, but they’re doing the rounds again. (India Today)
Comment: We’ll believe the Xi rumour when his DC summit with Trump gets delayed; as for the Huawei rumour, it lost whatever limited cred it ever had when Ren Zhengfei’s daughter (TV star Yao Anna) did a Beijing presser on Monday, rather than supposedly flee the country with her Party-loyal dad. So we more mention these rumours as the latest example of how nature fills the Party’s information void, rivals thirst for any whiff of weakness, plus there’s maybe a ripple of elite anxiety over Xi’s new exit ban.
🇽🇰 KOSOVO — Justice delayed.
A special EU-backed tribunal in The Hague just sentenced Kosovo’s ex-president Hashim Thaçi to 25 years in prison over war crimes during the Kosovo Liberation Army’s 1998-99 war against Serbian forces. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: It’s a massive fall for an independence leader who went on to serve as both PM and president with heavy Western backing. Many in Pristina now see betrayal, while more in Belgrade see belated justice. A genocidaire’s state funeral one week, a neighbour’s founding father in the dock the next; that’s how the region became a metaphor (Balkanisation).
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — Hit squad busted.
The US DoJ has unsealed charges against five operatives linked to Russian intelligence, allegedly recruiting local assets to surveil and assassinate a prominent Russian dissident in DC. All five remain at large. (Department of Justice)
Comment: Putin has a long record of attempted transnational repression across Europe (think Salisbury or Berlin), but attempting that kind of a stunt inside DC is a massive escalation. Europe at least expelled some Ruskies after Salisbury. Whether this White House does anything is another matter entirely.
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA — Pleading with you.
Alex Saab, Maduro’s longtime money man, has pleaded guilty in Miami to one US count of money laundering conspiracy, and has agreed to forfeit $195M and cooperate with federal investigators. (El Pais)
Comment: It’s bad news for Maduro’s own courtroom defence in New York, and a reminder how easily that close group of confidantes can go from a protective inner circle to a noose around your neck.
Extra Intrigue
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
Chemistry: researchers out of Cardiff and Newcastle (🇦🇺) Universities have corrected the foundational “inductive effect” concept that’s stood unchallenged in organic chemistry for nearly a century.
Travel: Hong Kong’s Rosewood just won world’s best hotel for the second consecutive year, at a ceremony in Paris (the event’s first time outside London).
Film: Spider-Man: Brand New Day just knocked The Force Awakens off the all-time North American box-office throne (~$937m and counting).
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Auction of the day
Some of the many Bearbricks seized in Singapore’s massive 2023 raid. Pic courtesy of the Singapore police.
If you’ve ever wondered what happens when the world’s most efficient city-state busts one of the world’s largest money-laundering syndicates, here’s your answer: Singapore’s cops have now handed a cool $1B (yes, B) in seized goods to Deloitte (yes, Deloitte) to sell via auction (not sure this last one is necessary but, yes, auction).
We’re talking…
250+ Hermès handbags (requiring a dedicated standalone auction)
80+ luxury properties (including a $20M Norman Foster penthouse), and
Several hundred Bearbricks (those collectible Japanese plastic bears that somehow fetch six figures).
So if you’ve got a spare $30k lying around for that Yayoi Kusama pumpkin handbag, bidding is now open.
Today’s poll
Do you think Canada will become an EU Associate Member?
Yesterday’s poll: Which theatre do you think will be most important for any future war?
💣 Land (7%)
🚢 Sea (8%)
✈️ Air (17%)
🚀 Space (16%)
💻 Cyber (50%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
💻 S.G: “Hitting more for less kinetic effort; impacting vast sectors: private, public and commercial, which will hit individuals as much as large entities (government, business, etc.)”
💣 T.R: “Any party in an armed conflict is going to need the equivalent of ‘boots on the ground’. Fancy aircraft and boats can project power, but can’t hold territory.”
✈️ A.A: “An Air x Cyber hybrid. Whoever has the best (and cheapest) flying drones and compute will prevail.”
✍️ S.F: “Resources. Specifically water.”
✍️ A: “The mind. Wars always start about notions, opinions, beliefs, perspectives and other thoughts.”
PS — shout-out to ‘Rosco’ in the group-chat for today’s Can-EU believe it?! email subject 😂. Become an Insider and join the banter today!