Today’s briefing:
— You can’t miss this in December
— Go work for the Brits in Bogota
— And the surprise Biennale rep is…
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. An early and very Happy Thanksgiving to our American readers — actually, to everyone.
I know the holiday’s origins are controversial; as a foreigner living in the US, I happily (and somewhat ironically) plead the fifth on that particular debate. But the spirit behind it? That’s something we can all get behind. Call it a once-a-year gratitude journal for people who find that stuff a little too “newfangled”.
My entry this year is simple: I’m thankful for every one of you who reads, shares, and supports International Intrigue. We’re going to need that energy in 2026 and beyond, so thank you.
To send you off into our brief break, we’re looking ahead to some of the most important stories and events we’re expecting in December.
See you Monday!
P.S: Join us for a DC happy hour with Leadership Connect, Thursday December 4th! Register here.
Number of the day
87%
That’s how much China’s war-related export prices to Russia have spiked since 2021, according to a new report out of Finland’s central bank. No favours among friends?
Calendar stuffing
Ahhhh, December — there are few better feelings than fobbing Barry-From-Finance off with your out-of-office autoreply, or telling Janet-From-HR to circle back in the new year.
But December can also throw curveballs — eg, this time last year, a UN-listed terrorist was stretching his hamstrings before coming in from the cold to oust Syria’s Assad regime.
So lest any Intriguers feel unprepared as we take a quick Thanksgiving break then return in December (aka Monday), here are some big dates marked in the Intrigue calendar.
5 December - FIFA Peace Prize
Thought Nobel was the only peace prize in town? Think again! The world’s FIFA football body is taking a well-earned break from rank corruption to give geopolitics a try.
Why? This new prize is on-brand for FIFA boss Giovanni Infantino, who’s helping the Saudis win the 2034 cup one day, then cosying up with the 2026 co-host (Trump) the next.
In short, the guy isn’t afraid to wield FIFA’s influence, whether pushing reconstruction in Gaza, or reconciliation between the Koreas (he once proposed they joint-host).
Anyway, word is not only that President Trump might be the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize winner, but that the prize was actually conceived in lieu of the president getting a Nobel.
And speaking of missed opportunities…
Early December - Jianxiawo lithium mine
Rumour is the world’s largest EV battery-maker (China’s CATL) might soon resume operations at one of the world’s largest lithium mines — its very own Jianxiawo site.
Global lithium prices are already slumping in anticipation given the mine accounts for ~3% of all supply. But we’re still intrigued why authorities shuttered the mine in the first place — the August announcement chalked it up as a permitting issue, but it’s odd for a mercantilist power to curb its own critical mineral supplies over a mere permit.
Our take is China’s authorities might’ve been using the lithium supply glut to further centralise control, trim inefficient operations, and stabilise prices. And speaking of China…
16 December - US public hearing on China trade
We were surprised when the Trump administration recently launched an investigation into whether China had complied with US trade deals from back in 2020. That’s years ago, and we already know the answer (no).
So why this public hearing? It’s probably to signal a tougher US enforcement posture, build leverage amid ongoing US-China trade talks, and show action after September’s reports that China bought zero US soybeans for the first time in seven years.
Meanwhile…
28 December - Myanmar election
Myanmar’s 2020 election delivered such a crushing defeat for the military’s preferred party, the generals threw their toys out of the cot and staged a coup three months later — and that fateful decision triggered a civil war that’s still tearing the country apart today.
But with China-Russia support now helping the junta stabilise its territorial control, the generals are hoping sham elections (with the 2020 winners banned) might quench foreign criticism, legitimise the regime, and pave a way back to international acceptance.
Ditto over in Guinea, where the same general who seized power via a 2021 coup is now hoping 28 December elections will legitimise his grip on power. And semi-ditto in the Central African Republic, where the president is gunning for a controversial third term the same day again.
Intrigue’s Take
Friday night is often when governments ‘take out the trash’ — ie, quietly release bad news in hopes everyone’s already too deep into their Buffy binge to care.
And December is kind of like the year’s Friday night, with history full of spicy pre-Christmas releases that leaders hoped we’d miss amid our turkey haze, whether…
The NSA’s massive 2014 dump of surveillance violations, or
The UK’s 2015 dump on everything from the Muslim Brotherhood to badgers.
So all that to say… while Barry and Janet can wait, it’s still worth paying attention!
Also worth noting in your diary:
3 December - NATO Foreign Minister meeting
6-7 December - Doha Forum (like a geopolitical Davos)
9-10 December - Fed policy meeting
14 December - Chile’s runoff election
17 December - EU Western Balkans summit
Mid December - China’s Central Economic Work Conference
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES - Russo-Ukraine peace?
US special envoy Steve Witkoff is now due to meet President Putin in Russia next week amid reports Ukraine has reached a “common understanding” with the US on a more balanced 19-point peace plan. Meanwhile, President Trump has defended Witkoff after a leaked October phone call with a senior Russian official suggested the US envoy was coaching the Russians on how to pitch Trump. (Bloomberg $)
🇨🇳 CHINA - Another mission.
According to Syrian TV via Cuban state outlets, China plans to reopen its Damascus embassy in early 2026, following a recent Syrian FM visit to Beijing. (Prensa Latina)
Comment: A year after Assad fled to Moscow, it’s arguably a classic Beijing caution play — wait and see how the new administration stabilises before committing.
🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION - Scratch my back.
The eurosceptic Patriots for Europe group is offering to support Roberta Metsola's bid for an unprecedented third term as European Parliament President in exchange for lifting a long-standing political firewall blocking them from power. (Euractiv)
Comment: Barely a year old, this populist grouping is now the third largest bloc in Europe’s parliament, and wants to push power back out to national capitals. For Metsola, it’s the ultimate devil’s bargain: to keep power, let them trim it.
🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES - Coup plot?!
In one of the wilder announcements you’ll hear today, the Philippine military spokeswoman has conceded that reports of plots to oust President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. are "not far-fetched", amid mounting public anger over mass corruption in the president’s flood funding. (SCMP)
Comment: Her intention was to assure everyone that the military remains loyal to Marcos Jr, after the leader of the senate sensationally revealed on Sunday he’s already getting texts from putschists offering him a seat on a junta. Marcos (whose own presidential parents were famously crooked) will need to uphold his promise to go after corrupt allies, or this thing will keep snowballing.
🇧🇴 BOLIVIA - Sound familiar?
Bolivia's new market-friendly leader Rodrigo Paz has announced plans to scrap several taxes, slash federal spending by 30%, and borrow up to $9B in an effort to stabilise the country's finances and course-correct its economy. (AP)
Comment: It’s no accident Paz is shaping up as Milei’s mini-me — while Paz avoids the Argentine leader’s antics, he campaigned on a similar platform, pledging a return to economic orthodoxy after years of socialist rule.
🇹🇿 TANZANIA - Party over!
Tanzania has cancelled its independence day celebrations, instead redirecting the funds to repair infrastructure damaged in recent election unrest. (Africa News)
Comment: Lest you think this is just good stewardship, keep in mind Tanzania’s opposition had been calling for mass protests on independence day (December 9).
Extra Intrigue
The Intrigue jobs board 💼
Specialist, Defense and Security @ McKinsey & Co in the USA
Policy Analyst @ OECD in Mexico City
Associate Fellow @ United Nations Staff College in Turin, Italy
Economic Diplomacy Officer @ British Embassy in Bogota
Art of the day
Credits: Alma Allen, Instagram
Capitals are now announcing who’ll fly their flag at the art world’s Olympics, aka the 61st Venice Art Biennale kicking off in May. And after months of speculation, the US has surprised everyone by going with Utah-born and Mexico-based sculptor, Alma Allen.
We say “surprised everyone” because even Allen himself was surprised, having not actually applied for the gig. With the traditional process reportedly hit by politics and the government shutdown, State’s announcement highlights Allen’s focus on “collective optimism and self-realization” — his relatively low profile might’ve helped, too.
Today’s poll
Do you think Ukraine and Russia will accept a peace plan before the end of the year?
Yesterday’s poll: If Jakarta is the biggest, which city do you think is the most underrated?
🇲🇽 Mexico City (39%)
🇵🇹 Porto (33%)
🇰🇬 Bishkek (11%)
🇸🇳 Dakar (8%)
🇰🇭 Kampot (5%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
Your two cents:
🇲🇽 D.D: “Mexico City by far. So much art, history, cuisine and culture. ”
🇵🇹 P.S: “Mexico City can’t be underrated - it’s currently experiencing backlash from locals against American transplants!”
🇰🇬 T.N: “Bishkek FTW. Sporclers unite on all things Kyrgyzstan! #BishkekOrBust”
✍️ G.C: “El Paso.”