Today’s briefing:
— Will the US kill the ICC?
— A spicy World Cup statement
— High-altitude art
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Will the US kill the ICC?
— A spicy World Cup statement
— High-altitude art
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. I’ve always loved that line from the late Desmond Tutu, who argued it’s one thing to keep rescuing folks from the river, but at some point you’ve really got to go upstream and figure out why they keep falling in.
As a young law student I always saw the International Criminal Court as part of humanity’s effort to head upstream. But a quarter century on, critics argue it’s lost its way, or even become part of the current.
Now enter the US, threatening to end the court altogether. Shall we look at why?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
Number of the day
66%
That’s the proportion of higher and middle-income countries surveyed by Pew Research that now have a more favourable view of China than the US, with respondents across 36 nations variously citing US meddling and backsliding.
The court is in session.
The meme is getting old but Marco Rubio just got another item on his infinite to-do list, which already includes viceroy of Venezuela, regime change in Cuba, slashing State costs, mediating DRC-Rwanda spats, DJ-ing weddings, and featuring in UFO documentaries.
Now this week, he’s announced he’s trying to dismantle the International Criminal Court.
But… can Rubio really kill the ICC? Should he kill the ICC?
It’s been around since 2002 and is designed to complement (not replace) national courts —the ICC only steps in if a national court can’t or won’t.
A quarter century later, it’s now got…
125 members (though not the US, China, Russia, India, Iran, or Israel), and
It can prosecute genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and aggression.
It’s also got a bit of a track record, issuing 61 arrest warrants, trying 34 cases, and convicting 13 (including on lesser crimes like witness-bribing):
Thomas Lubanga (2012) got 14 years for using child soldiers in the Congo
Dominic Ongwen (2021) got 25 years for war crimes in Uganda, and
Ali Kushayb (2025) got 20 years for his atrocities in Darfur.
Some other spicy cases are still ongoing today, like the one against Philippine ex-president Duterte over his deadly war on drugs. Plus others remain at large, like Joseph Kony (remember him?), Sudan’s al-Bashir, Russia’s Putin and… Israel’s Netanyahu.
So right there, you might have a sense of why the ICC has its critics, like…
It’s too slow (only 13 convictions in nearly 25 years?)
It’s too biased (all 13 convictions stem from Africa??)
It’s too weak (entirely reliant on members to arrest indictees???), and
It’s too political (eg Italy just released a Libyan fugitive, presumably to keep Libya helpful in stemming irregular migration to Europe????).
Then throw in that the court’s chief prosecutor (Khan) is now suspended amid claims he was sleeping with a subordinate — he denies her allegation things ever got non-consensual, but member countries are due to vote on his ousting next week.
So okay… circling back to where this all began, is the US now angry on behalf of Khan’s alleged victim? Or the victims of endless impunity? Or the entire continent of Africa? No.
Rubio is angry on behalf of America, warning the ICC’s entire raison d'être (very hard to say that out-loud without sounding smug) goes against the founding principles of a sovereign and free America built upon your own government, laws, and jury.
Now… you might recall the ICC is only meant to complement (not replace) national courts, precisely as a compromise to address US and other fears of ICC over-reach. The result (Art 17) is partly why so many other like-minded states eventually felt comfortable joining.
So… what’s now changed? Probably three things:
First, the ICC authorised a 2020 probe into crimes in Afghanistan (an ICC member) by the Taliban, local armed forces, and… the US! After the Taliban’s subsequent return, the court then de-prioritised alleged US crimes, but a US line had already been crossed.
Then second, the ICC famously issued arrest warrants not only for the (now dead) Hamas leaders responsible for the deadly 2023 attacks on US ally Israel, but also for both Netanyahu and Gallant (ex-defence) over Israel’s deadly response.
Then third, there’s Trump 2.0 — sharper in asserting US sovereignty back home, but also sharper in asserting US force abroad (Maduro, narcoboats, Iran). One former prosecutor has already described those narcoboat strikes as possible crimes against humanity.
So okay… that’s why the US is back dunking on the ICC. But can the US really kill it?
DC has already adopted measures to shield itself, like the Bush 2-era American Service-Members' Protection Act, dubbed the Hague Invasion Act for the way it authorises “any means necessary” to free US personnel from ICC custody. Bush also pushed 100 countries to pledge not to hand US citizens over to international courts.
Plus Trump 2.0 already went further, slapping individual ICC judges and prosecutors (plus their immediate families) with unprecedented sanctions after the Israel warrants.
But Rubio is now talking about going harder. How? The most striking focus in his remarks is on pressuring allies — and anyone else relying on the US — to reject ICC authority.
Could that work?
No country has ditched the ICC under US pressure so far, and 125 actually ended up joining the court despite US pressure. So this time around, most have laid low, but the EU has come out in support of the court, slamming Rubio’s latest remarks as “not acceptable”.
Intrigue’s Take
In a way, this fraught US-ICC relationship is just a new chapter in an old book: Clinton pushed back on pre-ICC negotiations, signed its weaker founding treaty, but never submitted it for Senate approval. Bush then un-signed it, but quietly started acquiescing to ICC probes if they didn’t target the US (eg, Darfur atrocities).
It was all part of a…
| Intrigue Insiders | Membership |
Our experienced, unfiltered takes on what's really going on.
| ✓Daily audio edition | ✓Completely ad-free |
| ✓Insider Telegram community | ✓Monthly AMAs |
| Start your free trial → | $14.99/mo · $149/yr 7 days free |
Intrigue’s Take
In a way, this fraught US-ICC relationship is just a new chapter in an old book: Clinton pushed back in pre-ICC negotiations, then signed its weaker founding treaty, but never submitted it for Senate approval. Bush then un-signed it, but quietly started acquiescing to ICC probes if they didn’t target the US (eg, Darfur atrocities).
It was all part of a modus vivendi strategy shaped by a State lawyer called John Bellinger.
Obama then built on it, offering multi-million dollar bounties for ICC-wanted warlords, and even helped deliver two of them to The Hague: Bosco Ntaganda ended up in ICC custody after mysteriously appearing at the US embassy in Kigali, and Dominic Ongwen actually got yeeted by US Special Forces in remote Central African Republic!
It ended up a pragmatic if inconsistent way to fill the gap between US unease and ICC utility. But while Rubio now says he wants the ICC gone, he’s not offering any suggestions on what (if anything) should fill that gap: is the US now going to Maduro every other warlord and genocidaire out there? Or just watch from afar like it did in Rwanda?
Neither option seems plausible, and yet the whole point of the ICC was arguably to fill that gap. So while his sovereignty concerns might resonate with some, we wonder how those same US audiences feel about, say, ICC-convicted jihadis like al-Mahdi (2016) and Abdoul Aziz (2024) walking free, or the countless other wackos out there maybe no longer having to worry about one day waking up deservedly shackled in some Hague cell.
That ol modus vivendi — cooperation when it suits, resistance when it doesn’t — was messy but at least it was functional and realistic. And sure, with a more interventionist US now operating in a more multipolar world, that wobbly tightrope gets tougher to walk. But it’s hard to see how Rubio’s nuclear option is now the answer.
Sound even smarter:
Guatemala became the first country to convict its own ex-president (Ríos Montt) of genocide in 2013, though the verdict was soon annulled on procedural grounds, and he died in 2018 before a retrial could conclude.
The above ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant is separate to South Africa’s International Court of Justice genocide case against Israel.
Some ~60 nations are reportedly attending (at varying levels) Rubio’s Resurgence of Political Terrorism summit in DC today (Thurs), with a particular focus on what State describes as transnational far-left terrorism.
Today’s briefing is sponsored by:
Better cap table management starts here
Cap table management doesn’t have to be frustrating. From issuing grants to 409A valuations or ASC 718 reporting Pulley can make it simple.
Just ask Linear. They knew they needed a partner who could handle the complexity of their equity management. That’s why they migrated to Pulley.
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — The latest.
In another round of tit-for-tat amid Trump’s resumed blockade, the US has hit a US-sanctioned oil tanker near Iran’s key export terminal of Kharg Island, after it reportedly ignored warnings to stop. Iran says it’s retaliated with drone and missile strikes — it’s unclear how much damage Iran is doing, though the US did quietly increase its reported number of dead and wounded on Monday. (Bloomberg $)
🇦🇷 ARGENTINA — More than just a match.
The British government has urged football governing body FIFA to investigate after Argentina’s team celebrated its World Cup win over England with a banner declaring the UK-run Falkland Islands (or Las Malvinas for Argentina) are Argentine. (Reuters)
Comment: An earlier FIFA case banned a South Korean player for two games after he held up a similar banner about a Japan dispute at the 2012 Olympics, but realistically it’s hard to see FIFA disrupting this Sunday’s Argentina-Spain final in New Jersey.
🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA — I got new (AI) rules, I count ‘em.
Prime Minister Albanese has used a landmark speech to flag plans to force AI data centres to minimise their water use, fund their own power supply, and respect artist copyright protections. He’ll announce specifics after a period of consultation, before introducing legislation to parliament next year. (ABC)
🇨🇳 CHINA — Growth scare?
China just posted one of its weakest quarterly growth figures in decades. Meanwhile in the US, Fed data suggests the US economy is picking up speed even as inflation eases slightly. (France24)
Comment: China’s immediate problem seems to be that its soaring (if increasingly problematic) exports aren’t enough to compensate for its continued property slump, sluggish domestic spending, record consumer debt defaults, and Iran war disruptions. But monthly data noise aside, we’re more intrigued to see one of China’s top economists (Tsinghua’s David Daokui Li) openly call for urgent responses to China’s challenges, including its total debt burden and resultant paralysis among the local governments traditionally fueling growth.
🇧🇷 BRAZIL — Tariff trouble.
Brazil has slammed the US move overnight to impose 25% tariffs on most Brazilian products from next week. These new s301 tariffs follow last month’s DC findings that Brazil benefits from unfair trade practices like deforestation, tariffs, and and its own popular ‘PIX’ payments platform. Goods the US doesn’t produce or doesn’t want to disrupt will be exempt (things like coffee, oranges, and certain aircraft parts). (Guardian)
Comment: What now? Lula says he’s authorised reciprocal tariffs, which you can expect will hit the politically-sensitive sectors dominating US exports to Brazil — think pharma, ag, and Boeing. Spicily, Lula has also reiterated his past accusations that this is actually a DC ploy to back his rival (Bolsonaro Jr) in this year’s elections.
🇮🇳 INDIA — Backing the tribunal.
We just flagged Indonesia’s notable absence from the list of nations marking 10 years since a Hague tribunal rejected China’s vast South China Sea claims. Now India has quietly voiced its own support for the ruling, describing it as “a significant milestone, and the basis for peacefully resolving disputes between the parties.” 🔥 (MFA’s weekly press briefing)
Comment: We say ‘quietly’ because India’s statement was verbal and responding to reporters, rather than (say) ninja-starring a written statement of its own volition. Still, it’s probably India’s sharpest solo intervention to date, and comes amid its own simmering border dispute with China in the Himalayas.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE — New face at defence.
Locals are now protesting after President Zelensky removed his popular, young (35), and tech-savvy defence minister (Fedorov), reportedly offering the role to his long-time interior minister instead (Klymenko). (Kyiv Independent)
Comment: Why ditch a guy whose tenure coincided with a pretty significant tech-driven turn-around in Ukraine’s battlefield fortunes? The two main theories are a) he was reforming too hard, too fast and drew the ire of Ukraine’s generals, and/or b) his resistance to wartime profiteering made him powerful enemies among Ukraine’s elite. His replacement has an anti-corruption background (plus a lower public profile to boot).
Extra Intrigue
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
Science: Researchers in Japan have discovered that ions almost flow like a liquid in certain “superionic” crystals, opening new possibilities for next-gen batteries.
Art: An Oslo museum has a new exhibition exploring Norwegian painter Edvard Munch (of ‘The Scream’ fame) and his foray into artworks for a chocolate factory.
From our sponsors
Nobody wants to say no to their team. Ramp does it for you with AI-powered cards that automatically block out-of-policy spend. Let Ramp be the bad guy.
Message of the day
Courtesy of @FlightRadar24
If you know any pilots, maybe give them a hug?
First there was that Austrian who traced the words “stay home” in the covid-era skies. Then there was the Finnish fighter pilot who fashioned a fully-franked phallus.
Now a young British pilot has used his two-hour test-flight to declare “I’m bored” in the skies up above Liverpool. He had no passengers, broke no rules, and — let’s be honest — rocked some solid flying skills there.
So okay, we hear you brother, but maybe pop on a poddy next time?
Today’s poll
Do you think the US will succeed in dismantling the ICC?
[We’d love you to join Intrigue’s group-chat — become an Insider today!]
Thursday’s poll: Do you think Israel really recruited Ahmadinejad?
💰 Yep, everyone has their price (24%)
⚡ Nope, it's a fake-out to sow elite division (74%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
⚡ M: “Loyalty among Iran’s powerful elite is unwavering.“
✍️ R.C.O: “There were probably some contacts, but after they went nowhere, the Mossad turned to a very effective plan B. After all, to be really effective, the burn needs to have some reality.”