Today’s briefing:
— Will Iran kill these foreign leaders?
— Zelensky shuffles his cards
— Politics is in the trash
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Will Iran kill these foreign leaders?
— Zelensky shuffles his cards
— Politics is in the trash
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. You’d think security was just about security, but it’s so often about something else. Some quick examples from my tour in Mexico:
i) I once watched a mid-level executive hire two burly bodyguards purely to impress a date.
ii) We used to joke you could judge the quality of a restaurant by the number of bodyguards loitering outside with earpieces and armoured SUVs. And…
iii) The one time I had bodyguards myself was when heading to speak to students in Tlaxcala (Mexico’s smallest state) — as our embassy vehicle crossed the state line, we were startled to suddenly find ourselves in a full-blown motorcade: trucks front and rear, balaclavas, mounted machine guns, the works.
This wasn’t because anyone seriously cared about some junior-burger diplomat off to greet some enthusiastic students, but rather because this small state was really trying to a) project a bit of strength, and b) signal respect for a relatively infrequent embassy visit.
So again, security ain’t always about security. Sometimes it’s also theatre: ego and optics. Keep that in mind as we examine who’s on Iran’s new ‘kill list’, and why.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
🎙️ PS — I was delighted to join Kit Conklin on the Exiger Exchange podcast, chatting about Intrigue, supply chains, and beyond. Give it a listen!
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Number of the day
13%
That’s how much stocks in Korean chipmaker SK Hynix jumped on its Wall Street debut Friday, raising over $25B. But today (Monday), Hynix stocks fell more than 15% in Korea amid leveraged investors realising their gains and uncertainty over AI chip demand.
Closed list.
Crosshairs, orange jumpsuits, and sniper dots: no, this is not a promotional still for John Wick 7, but actually the latest kill list just dropped in Iran. So shall we take a look?
First, who's on it?
The 13 faces include President Trump and Israel's Netanyahu (crosshairs on foreheads), followed by America's Rubio (State), Hegseth (Pentagon), Huckabee (ambassador to Israel), and Brad Cooper — no the mullahs are not upset with Bradley's portrayal of Rocket Raccoon in Guardians of the Galaxy — it’s the CENTCOM boss running the war.
Then there's Israel's Katz (defence), Sa'ar (foreign minister), and Zamir (IDF chief of staff), plus the UK's Starmer, France's Macron, Germany's Merz, and Italy's Meloni (yay for female inclusion in Iran).
Second, who wrote it?
The city of Tehran's flagship 'Hamshahri' (compatriot) newspaper took a break from reporting house prices and traffic jams to instead devote prime real estate to this hit list.
Municipality-owned and reliably pro-regime, Hamshahri acts as it a quasi-official mouthpiece — it echoes the regime line without quite reaching the foam-at-the-mouth level of hardline IRGC outlets like Kayhan. That makes it the perfect vehicle for plausible deniability: “Oh *that* kill list? Just a newspaper”.
Third, what's it mean?
This isn’t Hamshahri’s first "revenge list" — after Trump 1.0's assassination of General Soleimani, the paper added names like Mattis, Pompeo, Pence, Haley, and Bolton to its list, all nestled among soccer scores, weather updates, and fun vacation ideas for the kids.
But the exact authority behind these lists is murky. Sure, grand ayatollahs (like Shirazi and Hamedani) issued fatwas back in March, declaring "it is the duty of all Muslims to avenge the blood of their martyred leader", widely seen as covering both Trump and Bibi for their hit on Khamenei Sr.
But the other 11? It's unclear if they're also under some formal fatwa, an IRGC / Quds operational list, or if it's just bluster from another regime rag (in amongst updates on metro delays, health tips, and theatre showtimes).
So fourth, why drop the kill-list now?
Hamshahri published its glossy kill-list spread just hours after Khamenei Jr issued his first major statement since his father’s funeral, featuring spicy lines like “vengeance is the will of the nation and must inevitably be carried out.”
Leaving aside questions around whether Junior is even still alive, that timing looks like classic regime choreography: broad religious rhetoric up top, backed by the new supreme leader, then quickly amplified via meme-fresh visuals reaching everyday Tehranis.
The point here? Whether operational targeting or not, when your friendly municipal paper suddenly pivots from "best deals on cucumber" to "here's who we'd love to see dead", it's at least partly a propaganda flex. And the targets are clear:
Rally the hardliners
Intimidate the sceptics
Fire up those proxies abroad, and
Play tough as US talks continue.
Because nothing says “we’re open to talks” like sniper dots on half the West’s leaders.
Intrigue’s Take
The question now really becomes whether…
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Intrigue’s Take
The question now really becomes whether Iran’s regime is a) rational but using wild rhetoric as leverage for survival and concessions, or b) every bit as bonkers as it seems.
The answer matters, too: if this is mostly theatre to shape outcomes, it’s easier to shrug off and resume technical talks around the kinds of uranium enrichment and Hormuz arrangements Iran’s neighbours feel they can stomach given the regime’s history.
But if this regime’s ideology really has no natural off-ramp, then maybe any truce can only ever be tactical. Or to put it another way, if a regime’s entire legitimacy is built on an apocalyptic battle against The Great Satan and its Robin, you really expect to buy them off with a bit of sanctions relief and a new maritime protocol?
Sure, the earlier JCPOA nuclear deal showed you could sometimes corral these guys into a technical box with the right pressure, but maybe that was only ever hitting pause.
So… which is it? A lot of where you land depends less on Iran, and more on you: relatively secular Westerners often project their own “render unto Caesar” pragmatism onto a monist theocracy that barely recognises the distinction, and continues its regional hostility and nuclear opacity regardless.
And your answer aside, the immediate effect is the same anyway: higher tensions, harder diplomacy, and narrower options — so absent regime collapse, are we really looking at another half-century of containment, deterrence, and ‘lawn mowing’? Or to put it another way, are we left trimming the threat because we’ve run out of realistic options to end it?
Sound even smarter:
Clearly enjoying the buzz, the Hamshahri paper also did a glossy follow-up special highlighting all the Western headlines covering this latest kill-list.
In response, President Trump says he’s left orders to “bomb them at levels they’ve never seen” if he’s assassinated — that’s on-brand, though lends the threat more oxygen.
Broadening the kill-list to include Starmer, Macron, Merz, and Meloni (who weren’t even in the loop about the initial US-Israel strikes) looks like more horizontal escalation by the regime, to impose costs on any US alignment.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Tributes for Senator Graham.
Foreign condolences are pouring in for long-time Republican senator and Trump critic-turned-ally Lindsey Graham, who died suddenly of a ruptured aortic aneurysm on Saturday night. An old-school hawk, he was a vocal backer of Ukraine (where he’d just been), while Netanyahu has hailed him as “a true friend of Israel”. (NBC)
Comment: South Carolina’s governor now names a temporary replacement, who’ll presumably enjoy a leg-up in the August 11th primary to fill Graham’s place on the November mid-term ballot. Names doing the rounds include Lt Governor Evette, or even Governor McMaster himself before his own governorship ends in January. Rep Joe Wilson also wants the seat, though vacating his House seat would carry risks given the GOP’s narrow majority there.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE — Cabinet reshuffle (again).
President Zelensky has announced a reshuffle of his senior leadership, with PM Yuliia Svyrydenko stepping down just a year into her tenure. No word on her replacement just yet. (The Hill)
Comment: Even as Ukraine’s momentum improves, three reshuffles in 18 months points to the continued challenges of wartime governance and political stability.
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA — Missing seaman.
South Korean authorities have asked North Korea to assist in the search and rescue of a South Korean navy sailor presumed to have drifted across the Northern Limit Line. Interestingly, Seoul delivered the message via a text to reporters, as the two neighbours don’t currently have any working lines of communication. (Reuters)
Comment: Pyongyang will be weighing up whether to a) play the magnanimous neighbour, b) milk concessions out of his eventual return, and/or c) indulge its own notorious paranoia and assume this is all a capitalist plot.
🇮🇱 ISRAEL — Set date.
The Israeli parliament has set 27 October as the date for its next general election, the last possible day permitted by electoral law. (TOI)
Comment: It’s widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu himself, with polling suggesting he’s currently on track to fall well short of a majority. Even then, Bibi’s government would be the first to complete its full term in decades.
🇦🇴 ANGOLA — Reserve this.
Angola’s central bank has approved local commercial banks using China’s yuan to meet their foreign reserve requirements. (BIA)
Comment: Beijing-friendly outlets highlight this as proof of the yuan’s strength (which does continue to grow from a low base), but there’ll always be limits on the yuan’s appeal so long as China enforces rules around its convertibility. Rather, this news looks more to us like proof of how deep Angola’s China-dependence runs — it can realistically only use those yuan to buy more stuff from China.
🇵🇪 PERU — Friends like before?
Incoming right-populist leader Keiko Fujimori is seeking to reset ties with Mexico, months after Mexico’s left-populist government angered Peru by granting asylum to an ex-PM wanted over Peru’s attempted ‘self-coup’ back in 2022. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: It looks to us like a pragmatic pivot towards the centre after Peru’s polarising, razor-thin presidential elections. Keiko needs to broaden her appeal and stabilise the country, so mending ties with a regional power like Mexico makes sense.
🇲🇾 MALAYSIA — Coalition under pressure?
PM Anwar Ibrahim’s ruling coalition now looks a little wobbly after Malaysia’s long-time former ruling movement (BN) scored a resounding win over the PM’s own party in his home state of Johor. (The Diplomat)
Comment: Given the Malay-nationalist BN is nominally a federal ally, that outcome suggests Anwar’s ‘unity government’ might not be so unified after all — watch for whether BN now uses this result to demand more concessions (cabinet posts) and/or moves to stymie Anwar’s reforms (he’s been cutting popular but costly subsidies).
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
Police in Japan have arrested a man for allegedly pulling the plug at a massive public bath.
An angry bull has charged a cricket pitch in the UK, forcing the teams to abandon play.
Rotterdam’s Museum Boijmans Van Beuningen has unveiled 40 buckets of peanut butter spread across the floor.
And a US company has had to recall its fireworks due to explosion risks.
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Candidate of the day
Count Binface giving an interview. Credits: Count Binface via Twitter/X.
These are turbulent times in British politics, but maybe there’s a new dawn ahead. No, we don’t mean Andy Burnham’s likely ascension to the prime ministership next Monday.
Rather, we’re talking about the one and only Count Binface — if you’ve been around British politics long enough, you’ll recognise that name (or face?). Born as Jon Harvey, he’s a comedian and satirical candidate who’s faced off against several politicians over the years, including Andy Burnham, Boris Johnson, and Rishi Sunak.
Yes he also has a podcast, and yes it’s called ‘trash talk’.
Anyway, his next opponent is… Nigel Farage! That’s because the right-populist Reform leader has resigned his coastal seat so he can win it again on 13 August, in an attempt to beat the scandal around the handsome $6M “gift” he received from a crypto billionaire.
As amusing as this might all sound, Binface has now emerged as Farage’s only opponent, and a recent poll found Brits would rather hand the victory to Count Binface than Farage.
Perhaps folks are swayed by Binface’s appeals to “build at least one affordable house”, cap kebab prices at £2, and nationalise the singer Adele. But lest you think his win is binevitable, only Clacton folks get a vote, and they’re a safe Reform seat these days.
Still, even the hint of Farage himself getting Faraged is a reminder how populism can eat its own.
Today’s poll
What do you think Iran's latest kill-list means *most*?
Thursday’s poll: What do you think about China's latest ballistic test?
🥱 Chill, powers test missiles all the time (20%)
😒 Okay, but proper notice would've been nice (42%)
😲 This is a major escalation for the region (36%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (2%)
Your two cents:
😒 E.B: “It’s as much about safety as courtesy. Remember when Space X debris diverted commercial jets?”
✍️ J.E: “Nicely timed sabre rattling, but beware, it may backfire.”
🥱 J.B: “Anything to do with China seems to get spun as a bigger deal than it actually is for all kinds of political reasons.”