Today’s briefing:
— Why Israel hit this empty base
— This trial is so Meta
— Don't call this Spanish consul
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Why Israel hit this empty base
— This trial is so Meta
— Don't call this Spanish consul
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. It was 17th-century Dutch philosopher Baruch Spinoza who quipped that peace is more than just the absence of war.
Three centuries later, Norwegian researcher Johan Galtung sharpened that distinction further between a “negative peace” (when the guns fall silent) and a “positive peace” (in which societies actually thrive).
Well today’s briefing is about a land (Syria) now seemingly stuck between the two, all now laid bare by an intriguing hit on an old airbase. Let’s take a gander?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
$5.47
That’s now the per-gallon pump price for diesel across the US, up 8% in a month and edging closer to 2022’s all-time high of $5.82, in a possible midterms curveball.
Road to Damascus
Picture this: it's just before dawn on Tuesday, high in the dry rolling hills of Syria's eastern Idlib right up near the Turkish border.
The area is home to an abandoned ol' Assad-era airbase that hasn't seen action for a decade: a sprawling, half-forgotten complex of cracked concrete, empty hangars, and training sheds that repeatedly changed hands during Syria's civil war.
But then the silence and tumbleweed is punctured by Israeli fighter jets over the horizon, some 300km (190mi) from home. They strike the base's empty runway junctions and storage sheds — no casualties — then fly home.
So what's going on here, and what might it reveal? Let’s start with…
🇮🇱 Israel: sending a message
The Israelis almost never claim these strikes, let alone explain them.
But this time, they did both! Later on Tuesday, Netanyahu's office issued a rare public statement arguing Syria was — despite repeat warnings — on the verge of breaching an agreed status quo by permitting Turkey to deploy troops to that defunct base (which had just hosted a Turkish delegation on Monday, btw).
So Bibi is basically saying the Turks — who already operate 100+ military outposts across northern Syria and hold a privileged role within the al-Sharaa administration they helped usher to power — have now reached Israel's red line.
Meanwhile...
🇹🇷 Turkey: rejecting the premise
Ankara came out swinging (in the pugilist rather than amorous sense), with the foreign ministry condemning Israel’s strikes as a violation of Syria's turf. Erdogan's comms team then went harder, painting the Israeli claims as "frivolous allegations" designed to legitimise unlawful attacks and serve Bibi's "expansionist and destabilizing policies" ahead of Israel's high-stakes elections in October.
Translation: there was no imminent troop deployment, and Turkey will keep cooperating with its Syrian friends (who of course also condemned Israel’s strikes).
A little more intriguing, however, was the response from...
🇺🇸 The United States: taking a side?
The US — a formal ally to both Israel and Turkey — is now notably peeved at Israel, with Trump's envoy (tycoon Tom Barrack) issuing a spicy statement arguing Syria's new government has "repeatedly indicated a preference for de-escalation with Israel", which has now responded with this "unnecessary escalation"!
He also vented to Reuters how Israel’s move could’ve ignited a war, noting Turkey "observed the aircraft heading north towards its territory and therefore could have reasonably prepared its own response". 🌶️
And even allowing for Barrack’s dual hat as ambassador to Turkey (Trump’s Israel envoy has stayed silent), this public scolding joins a growing list of US-Israel spats, whether over the West Bank settler siege or the stalled peace deal in Gaza.
But to tie all these threads together? This ultimately now feels less about cratered runways or duelling messages, and more another live reminder of the way Syria’s neighbours are actively scrapping to shape the region’s entire post-Assad order.
Intrigue’s Take
This is really…
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Intrigue’s Take
This is really one heck of a stress-test for the region’s entire post-Assad order.
For years, Israel enjoyed a near-monopoly on pre-emptive strikes inside war-torn Syria, citing Iranian proxies or Hezbollah weapons transfers. And Turkey likewise spent those same years turning northern Syria into its own strategic depth (over Assad objections), citing Kurdish groups and related border security.
Those two neighbourly instincts were always going to collide once Damascus stopped being a Russian-Iranian protectorate and started morphing into more of an acceptable, Turkish-backed project. So you could argue this airbase was simply the first place that this inevitable collision has now really become visible.
But with that regional chessboard now getting completely rearranged, what’s so striking is how quickly the old rules now seem to be breaking: Israel abandoning its usual stony silence, the US ditching its usual muted shrug, and the Turks now explicitly linking it all to Bibi’s own electoral vulnerability this October. That framing, btw, arguably gives Turkey cover to deepen its Syrian footprint even further, under the guise of defending its neighbour rather than pure self-interest.
As for the Syrians themselves, they realistically need Turkish muscle and money to consolidate territorial control, and yet in this game, every visible new Turkish footprint just becomes another potential pretext for the Israelis to hit again.
All the while, sure, it leaves al-Sharaa talking about sovereignty. But he must be starting to twig that his two biggest neighbours might now have more agency inside Syria than he does. The whole thing feels dangerously precarious.
Sound even smarter:
Israel has cited President al-Sharaa’s al Qaeda roots — and bouts of sectarian violence by his forces — among its reasons for continued distrust with Syria.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Trial of the century.
A landmark trial against Meta has kicked off, with 29 US states accusing the tech giant of making its social media platforms deliberately addictive and targeted at children. The attorneys-general are seeking $200B in damages, equivalent to Meta’s 2025 full-year revenues. (Guardian)
Comment: Zuck himself is expected to take the stand in this 6-8 week trial focused on Meta’s core algorithms, with huge implications for broader Big Tech
🇺🇦 UKRAINE — Popular ex-minister calls for elections.
Former defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, the popular and tech-savvy young figure whose ousting triggered protests earlier this summer, has now called for wartime elections in a clear challenge to President Zelensky. (Politico)
Comment: This is arguably Ukraine’s first major political figure to publicly call for wartime elections, and he’s coined a clever way to frame it: Putin should not dictate when Ukrainians vote (he ignored earlier election-ceasefire proposals). Fedorov is popular with young Ukrainians, but it’s unclear how much that support would translate to the rest of the electorate. Plus we explored the difficulties (which Fedorov believes can be managed) of holding wartime elections in Ukraine here.
🇹🇴 TONGA — New UN candidate just dropped.
The Pacific Island monarchy of Tonga has now nominated Ecuador’s Ivonne A-Baki as the eighth candidate (and second Ecuadorian) hoping to become the next UN secretary-general in the new year. (Reuters)
Comment: She’s a former trade minister and ambassador to the US, France, and Qatar, clearly hoping last month’s inconclusive straw-poll opens up a path for another dark-horse candidate. But why would Tonga do the nominating? It’s a low-cost, high-visibility way for a small nation to make a splash and potentially have a bit of leverage with the next UN boss.
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA — All the tea in China.
China’s foreign minister Wang Yi is travelling to South Korea today (Wed) for his first official visit there in five years! (Japan Times)
Comment: Why now? We wonder if it’s to capitalise on the perceived US-South Korea alliance friction we explored on Monday, though it might also just be a prelude to President Lee’s trip to Shenzhen for APEC in November.
🇳🇬 NIGERIA — Cruising on.
12 years after introducing it, the US Coast Guard has now ditched an extra security screening for ships coming from Nigeria, citing significant improvements in the country’s maritime security. (BI Africa)
Comment: In practical terms for Nigeria, this means lower shipping costs, faster turnaround times, better schedule reliability, and improved port competitiveness vis a vis other West African gateways.
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA — We’d like that back.
With a bit of US cajoling, Venezuela’s government and opposition now have some rare common ground: they’re lodging a joint request for the Bank of England to return $4B (31 tonnes) of gold now earmarked for reconstruction after June’s twin earthquakes left more than 6,000 dead. (EuroNews)
Comment: The Brits froze that bullion after Maduro stole the 2018 election, triggering years of UK court battles around which Venezuelan body actually controls the gold. The Venezuelans are now suggesting routing the cash back via the US Treasury (with international audits) in hopes the Brits might feel comfortable enough to fast-track it all, but London is still awaiting a British court’s final decision.
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — Burnham catfished?
Newly installed Prime Minister Andy Burnham has exchanged texts with somebody pretending to be Susie Wiles, President Trump’s chief of staff. Andy boy insists the brief conversation was “of no significance”, while the White House has denied initial claims Susie’s phone was hacked. (Politico)
Comment: It’s surprising how often world leaders still fall for this — a pair of Russian pranksters have similarly embarrassed several Western leaders over the years, and that was pre-AI voice!
Extra Intrigue
Intrigue’s commodities corner
Gas: Europe’s gas storage is now above 60%, but still its lowest pre-winter level in five years.
Oil: Brazil’s President Lula has hailed another big oil discovery off the Amazon as “a passport to this country's future” (good timing for his re-election bid).
Mining: A US-Australian firm has started drilling at one of Greenland’s big new rare earth deposits.
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Snafu of the day
We don’t know what Tasha looks like, but with some AI image help, we’re confident that’s the look on her face.
Sometimes you just fall into things, like that time you were somehow convinced to sign up for Samba class after walking into the wrong room at the gym.
But it’s not every day you just fall into becoming a diplomat… let alone for another nation?
And yet that’s roughly what happened to Tasha, a Kiwi who now receives numerous calls a day from Spaniards looking to contact their local diplomatic service. Here’s the kicker: Tasha doesn’t work for the Spanish foreign ministry, is not Spanish, doesn’t speak Spanish, and certainly isn’t a consul — not even an honorary one.
So… what’s going on? Simple administrative inertia, it turns out. After Spain’s previous honorary consul passed away, the number got reassigned to Tasha, but nobody bothered updating the various online directories still listing it as Spain’s official local contact. So the calls just keep coming.
Today’s poll
Who do you think will have the most influence over Syria in 10 years?
Yesterday’s poll: Two months out from the Brazilian election, who do you think will win?
🔴 Lula (70%)
🟢 Bolsonaro Jr (29%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
🔴 M.S: “Bolsonaro's brand is still too toxic. Sins of the father, etc.”
🟢 E.K.H: “I think the global anti-incumbent sentiment still has some juice.”