Today’s briefing:
— Who’s really running the SCO?
— Is that container ship spying on us?
— A reverse Atlantis in Canada
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Who’s really running the SCO?
— Is that container ship spying on us?
— A reverse Atlantis in Canada
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. You might think the world’s foreign ministries are busy solving stubborn problems like world peace. But one of diplomacy’s truly intractable problems is frequent-flyer airline miles.
In theory, they belong to the taxpayer. In practice, they still accrue to the exhausted first secretary who just did Johannesburg-Frankfurt-Astana in coach.
And so, dear Intriguer, I have seen airline statuses you would not believe: diplomatic couriers hitting god-tier after a year lapping the world. Ambassadors who’d rather connect in Doha than fly direct, for reasons that are not geographic.
And my favourite: a junior diplomat dispatched, business class of course, to the other end of the earth for one meeting in Bishkek, then coming home as lifetime platinum.
He has since left the service, but there is a non-zero chance that, as you read this, the guy is washing down another salmon-and-dill canapé with Laurent-Perrier La Cuvée in some random airline lounge he actually has no flight to leave.
I mention all this because you too are now joining us for a trip to Bishkek, dear Intriguer. We can’t promise any airline miles, but we do have some thoughts about the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that just wrapped there. Strap in?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Year of the day
1996
That’s the last time Japan’s 10-year bond yields hit 3% — they did again on Tuesday as investors price in stickier inflation, rising debt, and an expected BoJ rate hike.
SCO much intrigue
L-R, the heads of the SCO secretariat, Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and the SCO’s top anti-terrorism official
If your family dinners feel tense, take some comfort from the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, which just took place in Bishkek.
Founded in 2001 by China, Russia, and four Central Asian neighbours, the SCO started out as a pact to stamp out the "three evils" of terrorism, separatism, and extremism.
Fast forward a quarter century, and it's now billing itself as a 10-member heavyweight representing a quarter of global GDP, 3.4 billion people, and four nuclear powers, all as Eurasia's answer to a Western-dominated world.
Their joint declaration adopted 28 documents (!), but here are the five lines you really need to know, starting with...
🇨🇳 "The SCO should step forward to shoulder its historic responsibility and steer the course for the future" — Xi Jinping
Translation? Xi actually then offered his own blunt translation, arguing the SCO should help build an "equal and orderly multipolar world" — ie, an end to any US-led hierarchy. He offers some familiar steps to get there, too, including his flagship Global Development, Security, Civilization, and Governance Initiatives.
Or to put it all another way? He wants the SCO to matter more, and it should matter more in ways that sound a lot like China’s own vision for the world.
Xi got an amen from...
🇮🇷 "An SCO Bank would be an effective step to reduce the vulnerability of trade and supply chains" — Masoud Pezeshkian
Translation? Drowning in sanctions, Iran needs a bank the US can't switch off.
He also wants an export-insurance union and an energy consortium for similar reasons. And of course, the top supporters are those also drowning under sanctions: Putin and his Belarusian puppet. China has also been pushing the idea since 2010.
So... why's it not up and running? Some (Uzbeks) are trying to balance world powers rather than jump deeper into bed with Beijing. And others (Kyrgyz and Kazakhs) are squabbling over who gets to host.
But the biggest hurdle is probably...
🇮🇳 "Reliable and inclusive connectivity must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries" — Narendra Modi
Translation? India is wary of rival China using the SCO generally and any SCO Bank specifically to further its own regional dominance.
Modi has always bristled at China's big 'Belt and Road' infrastructure projects through neighbouring rival Pakistan, but particularly in disputed Kashmir.
And while we’re on Modi’s dunking on Pakistan...
🇮🇳 "Terrorism should never be treated as a strategic asset" — Narendra Modi
Translation? Stop it, Pakistan.
Modi's price for playing along in the SCO has always been to milk tough SCO text on Pakistan-based Islamist groups hitting India. This time, interestingly, he got the SCO to adopt his "no double standards on terrorism" language, which looked a lot like a jab at China (it routinely blocks UN terrorist designations that could be embarrassing for Pakistan).
Anyway, Modi also had a pretty blunt message for Putin...
🇮🇳 "We must move from endless war towards an end to war" — Narendra Modi
Translation? Wrap it up, Vlad.
Dropped during a one-on-one, and in front of the cameras, it was a spicy moment that made Putin visibly squirm. And Delhi might well argue that this is the value of Modi keeping his Putin ties warm: the tsar has no choice but to cop it.
What nobody mentioned was that maybe this war would've ended years ago if India (with China) had stopped financing it via energy deals. Plus the final SCO resolution found plenty of room to condemn strikes on Iran, but only more silence on Ukraine.
As for Putin's response? The next day he warned (with a straight face) that "we must do everything in our power to prevent a return to the global practice of instigating armed conflicts” — still framing his decision to roll tanks across Ukraine's borders and slam missiles into Ukrainian homes as someone else's fault.
Quite the move from a guy who treats NATO's voluntary eastern democracies as casus belli, but the SCO's westward expansion (hi Belarus) as mere multipolarity.
Intrigue’s Take
The SCO is famously good at…
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Intrigue’s Take
The SCO is famously good at allowing India to talk terrorism, China to talk multipolarity, Russia to talk de-dollarisation, and Iran to talk sanctions-busting.
And that’s not nothing. In a fragmenting world, there’s value in middle powers getting a space to hedge and even flip the bird, while heavyweights get to project influence without having to make any meaningful commitments.
But right there, you can already see the SCO’s weakness: Xi’s exhortation to “steer the course of history” only works if the others are rowing in the same direction. And yet did you notice who uttered three of those five spicy quotes above?
Yes, India’s Modi. Not because Delhi runs this club, or even really cares about it, but because of the way he values his SCO seat as a path to veto rather than accelerate its progress. It’s a masterclass in participating just enough to harvest value (security, Central Asian access), while systematically tapping rival Beijing’s brakes from within.
You can also see it in what the final SCO declaration doesn’t mention — sure, it condemns hits on Iran, but there’s zero reference to the actual hitters, precisely because India is always happy to hedge, but has no interest in torching its DC or Israeli channels for the sake of a paragraph in Kyrgyzstan.
Anyway, far be it from us to forecast the future, but it seems unlikely history will be steered by a group that can’t name the wars, let alone fund the bank.
Sound even smarter:
Amusingly, Pakistan initially cropped India’s Modi and others out of its version of the official ‘family photo’, moving PM Sharif closer to the centre.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — The latest.
The US and Iran have again exchanged fire in the most intense bout of fighting in weeks, with Tehran targeting more US sites in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq, while the US has resumed direct strikes on Iran’s mainland. Both foes are now warning they’ll escalate further. (BBC)
Comment: Some had hoped DC’s ‘Economic D-Day’ might somehow end the tit-for-tat, but the problem with tit-for-tat is neither side can afford to let the other get the final tat. Meanwhile, the free world’s free press means the regime is perfectly aware of DC’s reported munitions constraints.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Two birds, one ship.
Beijing is rejecting US allegations that China’s state-owned shipping giant COSCO hides surveillance equipment to intercept rival military comms across Europe, North America, and Asia. The US flagged COSCO’s military links back in January 2025. (Independent)
Comment: That countries spy on one another is nothing new. That they use civilian fronts as cover is also nothing new. But that doesn’t make these claims any less spicy: COSCO is one of the world’s largest liner fleets, with a hall-pass to strategic Western ports every week. The timing is interesting too, just ahead of Xi’s planned trip to the US — these kinds of pre-visit leaks can be a way to build leverage and shape the narrative.
🇸🇾 SYRIA — Nuclear suspicions confirmed.
It turns out the old Assad regime was indeed building a nuclear reactor in Deir el-Zour, according to a new UN report. Israeli airstrikes levelled the suspicious site back in 2007, and new IAEA verification work greenlit by Syria’s post-Assad government seems to have confirmed those fears. (AP)
Comment: These findings now open up two new fights: first, who was building this secret nuclear site? The long-standing suspicion (backed by design similarities) is North Korea. Second, what happens to any remaining nuclear material? Damascus is playing nice with the UN watchdog, though has also flagged any nuclear material remains under Syrian control, hinting at a possible civilian nuclear energy programme under international safeguards. It’s hard to see Israel liking that.
🇨🇺 CUBA — Unpaid lawyers quit.
The regime’s London solicitors have quit a years-long UK case after going more than a year without fees. The fight is with a Cayman fund that bought defaulted 1980s Cuban loans on the cheap. Havana claims the paper was never validly assigned, and the issuing bank is no longer Cuba’s central bank, though UK judges are increasingly leaning the other way. (Bloomberg $)
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA — Record budget.
Seoul has unveiled a record $597B budget for 2027, a ~13% increase largely funded by a ~doubling of corporate tax receipts amid the AI boom. (Reuters)
Comment: President Lee is spending some of that AI windfall on even more AI to keep the good times rolling, plus helping cohorts (like youth and regions) most vulnerable to AI’s disruptions. He’s effectively stuffing another $76B chunk under the mattress for if/when the AI boom ends. A pretty adult approach to a windfall by world standards, notwithstanding some opposition grumbling that he should’ve paid down more debt (which is relatively low and falling).
🇩🇪 GERMANY — Guess who.
Berlin has now officially blamed Moscow for last month’s discovery of explosive-laden drones at Leipzig airport, including one near a cargo plane carrying arms for Ukraine to defend itself against Putin’s attacks. The Germans have now announced a series of retaliatory diplomatic actions, including the closure of Russia’s consulate in Bonn. (Politico)
Comment: A faulty detonator seems to be the one reason anyone is still describing this as a mere ‘hybrid’ attack worthy of a mild diplomatic response. The free world should probably start thinking very carefully about how it’ll respond when Putin’s detonators start working.
🇸🇳 SENEGAL — Hidden-debt hangover.
The IMF has announced a new $2.2B, three-year deal with Senegal and is formally parking the old deal after it emerged that the previous government was under-reporting its debt. (France24)
Comment: It’s still just a staff-level agreement (ie, pending board approval), but might be an elegant solution to this mess. The fact Senegal’s bonds just hit record new lows hints at the tougher reality: markets were lending against fake numbers that are now getting priced in, with official debt now at ~132% of GDP once you include those missing loans.
Extra Intrigue
Intrigue’s commodities corner
Oil: Brent has jumped more than $4 a barrel to briefly clear $95 after the US and Iran resumed retaliatory strikes over the weekend.
Wheat: Prices have hit three-year highs amid Russo-Ukrainian hits on Black Sea port infrastructure and ships.
Lithium: Spot prices in some markets have climbed 22% in the first half of the year, amid another AI-fuelled demand boost for batteries.
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Mystery of the day
Satellite imagery confirming the island’s existence / disappearance. Credits: B.C. Hydro.
When you misplace your keys or lose your phone, there are proven techniques: retrace your steps, check under the couch, or pray to St. Anthony.
But what’s the protocol when an entire island appears and then… disappears? We’re asking for a friend: specifically, authorities in western Canada were startled earlier this summer when boaters on the massive Williston Reservoir posted footage of a 70m x 140m (~two US football fields) forested island bobbing around in open water!
Satellite images confirmed the island’s existence in July, but when officials went searching, it had vanished. It’s now back in the news again because the local power utility just found it again, but bobbing 30km (18mi) away in a remote bay!
Like a reverse Atlantis, researchers think a decade of rotting driftwood might’ve fused together into a kind of giant floating mat, which then popped free when water levels hit a 14-year high.
Boaters are now under strict instructions not to attempt a landing, mostly for safety reasons, but also how do you explain to your insurer that you got shipwrecked on a floating forest?
Today’s poll
Germany's response to Russia's drones at Leipzig airport is...
Thursday’s poll: Have you ever been caught in a natural disaster?
🖋️ Yes (tell us your story!) (25%)
⛔ No, thankfully (73%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your stories:
E.C: “Haiti. 2010. I was working in the bateyes on the DR border ~175km from Port au Prince. We felt it and went to higher ground concerned about a tsunami. Comms gone. That night we made a run for Santo Domingo. It was chaos. I've never talked about this with anyone. I still need time.”
G.L.K: “Loma Prieta earthquake in October 1989. I worked at a 27-story hotel in downtown San Francisco that was 100% occupied. No power for days - we found ONE working bakery in Chinatown that had coffee brewing so we filled up one of those 5-gallon urns to bring to our employees - people were chasing us down the street trying to buy it from us.”
P: “I was at the Boy Scout World Jamboree in Japan in 1971, camping when Typhoon Olive struck. It was a great adventure for a bunch of teenagers floating each other on our air mattresses back and forth inside our tents as rivers of water ran through them.”
S.F: “I was in an underground party during the 2010 Chilean earthquake, which hit sometime around 3:00 am. At first, I honestly thought the rumbling was caused by the dancing crowd.”
Editor’s note: Thank you all so much for sharing your stories of serendipity, resilience, and community! We couldn’t fit them all here, but will share more (anonymised) with our Intrigue Insiders. Don’t miss out — become an Insider today!
And… shout-out to ‘SB’ for today’s ‘SCO much intrigue’ subtitle 😄. Become an Insider and join the group-chat!