🌍 What Trump wants from the Gulf

Today’s briefing:
— What Trump wants from the Gulf
— Why Dominicans are googling their ex-leaders
— World’s sexiest passport

Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. President Trump has set off on the first official trip for his second term, touching down in Saudi Arabia. You’d be forgiven for getting a sense of déjà vu — Saudi Arabia was also Trump’s first pit stop back in 2017.

If we’re to assess a president’s foreign policy priorities by their first trip abroad, then Trump 1.0 would have spotlighted NATO, the G7, and the Middle East peace process.

As for Trump 2.0’s priorities? We’ll dive into them in our top story today.

Number of the day

54%

That’s President Trump’s new ‘de minimis’ tariff on goods from China worth less than $800 (often dubbed the Temu tax). These packages were duty-free until Liberation Day, when they copped a 120% tariff, now lowered to 54% following US-China trade talks in Geneva.

Jets, crypto, and hostages – Trump’s Gulf trip

President Trump has just kicked off his first official trip abroad (RIP Pope Francis), with pitstops in Riyadh on Tuesday, Doha on Wednesday, and Abu Dhabi on Thursday.

Turkey’s President Erdogan might also be ironing the bedsheets, as Trump has flagged the possibility of swinging past Istanbul if the Russia-Ukraine talks proceed.

Meanwhile, if Israel starred in an award-winning but commercially underperforming drama starring Diane Keaton, it might now forlornly be blowing out candles and scraping its prepared meal into Tupperware, because Trump isn’t visiting. There are rumours it’s due to Trump-Netanyahu tensions over how to approach Iran and the Houthis, plus Israel is unlikely to offer the same splashy headline potential (absent any Gaza ceasefire deal).

Anyway, here’s what to look for at each stop —

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

The last time Trump was in town (2017), the Saudis pledged to buy $110B in US arms. Most of that never actually eventuated (ditto under a similar Obama-era offer), but it was a sexy headline, and now there’s talk of making the headlines even sexier with numbers like $1T (Saudi’s entire GDP). But let’s focus less on the numbers, and more on the issues:

Nuclear tech. There’s speculation Trump might announce a civil nuclear deal, which the Saudis want because a) regional rivals Iran and the Emiratis are already nuclear, and b) it’s on-brand for the Saudi pivot away from its petrostate roots. Intriguingly, there are also reports Trump might now ditch the US requirement for the Saudis to recognise Israel before getting US nuclear tech. Why…?
Competition. The Saudis just signed a vague nuclear deal with China, in what looked a lot like a flex aimed at the US: “we have options”. So with the Israel-Hamas war leaving Saudi recognition unlikely, Trump is likely charging ahead to carve out deals for US nuclear firms and associated US leverage in the region, while nudging US allies to counter Iran themselves.

🇶🇦 Qatar

Jets. Doha is offering a luxury 747 until Boeing’s delayed new Air Force One arrives in 2029. And ethics aside, national security circles are buzzing over a) surely it’s bugged b) maybe it’s remote controlled, and c) what do the Qataris want in return for this half a billion dollar flying palace? White House lawyers say it’s a gift to the Pentagon (not Trump), and is not conditional on any official act.
Hostages. Long side-lined for its Hamas links, Qatar has now become a critical conduit for Hamas negotiations, including the terrorist group’s latest release of US-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander after 580 days. That’s a timely win for Trump.
Syria. The Qataris and Saudis also just paid off Syria's World Bank debt, and Trump is now hinting he could ease US sanctions, too (essential for anyone to do business there). Both the Qataris and Saudis will likely raise this with Trump, as they see a thriving Syria as a) good for regional security and b) good for business.

🇦🇪 UAE

$1.4 trillion. That’s how much the Emiratis have already pledged to invest in the US over the next decade. Meanwhile, Trump 2.0 has since lifted Biden’s pause on UAE arms sales (due to Yemen war concerns), but the Emiratis will also want Trump to unwind Biden’s curbs on accessing advanced US chips and AI (word is this is indeed in the works).
Crypto. This one isn’t on the official agenda, but it’d be weird for the Emiratis to close a $2B deal with a guy one week, then not mention it to his dad the next.

Intrigue’s Take

It’s no surprise Trump 2.0 is again making his first international trip to the Middle East, particularly given it plays so neatly to his brand: big transactional headlines and spectacular red carpets, rather than (say) lectures on human rights.

But he can’t ctrl-c → ctrl-v this visit, because the region and the world have changed a lot since 2017. The Saudis have spent a trillion or two on modernisation and diversification efforts, the Qataris have hosted a FIFA World Cup, and the Emiratis have chaired a successful UN climate summit.

So they’re more confident, and less hesitant to chase what they want, whether that’s the Saudis signing massive oil deals with Beijing or brutally murdering a US-based journalist; or the Emiratis rolling out the red carpet for a warmonger like Putin; or the Qataris hosting the political bureaus for groups like the Taliban and Hamas.

And to boot, our world is also now way more multipolar, meaning if these Gulf states don’t get what they want out of Trump, they’ve got no shortage of other cards to play.

Sound even smarter:

OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Fidelity’s Jane Fraiser, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, and Blackrock’s Larry Fink are also due in Riyadh today for the US-Saudi Investment Forum.

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Meanwhile, elsewhere…

🇨🇳 CHINA - Beijing’s latest national security white paper just dropped.
Six years on, China’s cabinet just released a new national defence white paper amid a “world of change and disorder”. Its familiar themes include ‘global stability’ (with China providing the ballast), and ‘holistic security’ (drawing on Xi’s ideology and China’s national strengths). (Gov.cn)

Comment: This text focuses more on continuity than any bold new claims, but its timing (amid US-China trade talks) and doubling-down (see familiar themes above) probably suggest an intent to project strength into what it sees as the new era.

🇹🇷 TURKEY - PKK officially disbands.
75 days after the jailed founder of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) called on his group to disband, they’ve now heeded the call, ending over 40 years of conflict with Turkey. The group now wants Kurdish rights protected via democratic means. (RFERL)

Comment: This is a big deal, but it’ll take a generation to address the conflict’s underlying drivers, and just as long for Ankara to gain Kurdish trust.

🇪🇸 SPAIN - Top defence firm pivots to tanks.
The head of Spain’s biggest defence contractor (Indra Sistemas) wants his country to become a major tank-maker for the EU. It’d be a big move for Indra, which is better known for electronic systems like radars and sensors. (Bloomberg $)

Comments: There’ll be more pivots like this as Europe re-arms, both to face off an aggressive Russia in the East, but also to hedge against a wavering US in the West.

🇨🇴 COLOMBIA - Bogotá to join China’s BRI.
In China for a state visit, President Petro has announced plans to join China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative on infrastructure. (Reuters)

Comments: Colombia has long been a top US partner, but this likely reflects: a) ideological differences (leftist Petro vs MAGA Trump); b) policy differences (Petro was humiliated by Trump’s deportation flights); and c) Petro’s desire to counter his mounting domestic woes with a VIP appearance in Beijing.

🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES - Ex-president wins mayoral race from ICC jail.
Former leader Rodrigo Duterte has won election as mayor of Davao despite being detained in The Hague for alleged crimes against humanity. It’s all part of mid-term elections that’ve become a battleground between the country’s top two political families, who hold the presidency and vice-presidency respectively. (Guardian)

🇦🇪 UAE - Kids as young as four to learn AI.
The United Arab Emirates will roll out AI classes as part of its state school curricula from primary onwards. The Gulf state’s education minister is vowing not to repeat the error of its slow adaptation to social media. (FT $)

🇲🇳 MONGOLIA - Krispy Kreme to open in Mongolia.
The iconic American doughnut will soon be available in Mongolia, reflecting both Mongolia’s opening up, and the brand’s broader strategy to tap new markets. (VFS)

Extra Intrigue

What people around the world are googling

🇦🇹 Austrians looked up ‘bombendrohung haid ansfelden’ (Haid Ansfelden bomb threat) after police responded to a threat at a local middle-school.
🇰🇭 Folks in Cambodia googled ‘Apple iPhone 17 pro max’ for the latest rumours on Apple’s new phone launch expected around September.
🇩🇴 And netizens in the Dominican Republic searched for ‘Leonel Fernández’, after news broke that he and other ex-presidents are in talks with the current administration on how to tackle growing insecurity next-door in Haiti.

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Passport of the day

Credits: Retinaa.

Not only is the Swiss passport one of the world’s strongest (meaning its holders can travel visa-free almost anywhere)… let’s be honest, it’s also objectively beautiful.

The travel document merges cutting-edge UV-sensitive security features, Tron-like graphics, and beautiful topographical art evoking the mountainous Swiss landscape. The cover also features a hidden portrait of Pizzo Rotondo, the mountain at the intersection of Switzerland’s linguistic regions. Scroll through some more pics here.

Today’s poll

Which part of Trump's trip do you think matters the most?

Yesterday’s poll: Who do you think holds more cards?

🇨🇳 China (66%)
🇺🇸 The US (30%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)

Your two cents:

🇨🇳 R.C.O: “Xi has much more to lose if he is perceived to have caved to the US. His own political survival means he'll play his hand longer.”
🇺🇸 B.G: “China needs the U.S. to buy its cheap goods in massive quantities. Without those dollars, their ever-enlarging military is adversely affected.”
✍️ M: “Today it could still be, marginally, the US. But the Chinese economy and companies are moving ahead at such speed and with such a coherent and comprehensive strategy that the US' unpredictability is just killing its advances.”
✍️ S.M: “China may have more cards, but some US cards have higher value due to US specialization in key areas.”