Today’s briefing:
— What’s with all these M&As
— Would you dare to visit?
— A global city’s secret tunnels revealed
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Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. It’s not regime change unless it’s from the Régime region of France. Otherwise it’s just sparkling instability.
Now, today’s briefing gets you up to speed on the geopolitics of some juicy mergers and acquisitions (M&As). So let’s hop to it, shall we?
PS - Don’t miss our chat with fellow Intriguer Casey Handmer (as seen in The Economist), who’s now making fuel out of thin air! He’ll be with us online, Thurs July 10. Join here!
Number of the day
1/3
That’s (almost) the proportion of Tuvalu’s population who just applied for an Australian climate visa, the first of its kind. The Pacific archipelago, home to around 11,000 people, rests just five metres above sea level.
Finance watch
It’s Friday, it’s hot up north, and we don’t want to stand between you and the weekend.
So let's cut right to the chase: there’s been a lot of intriguing M&A activity we think you oughtta know about (though our titles get progressively worse — the heat’s getting to us):
Oil me up! Shell and BP keep it low-key
Fleece vests paused everywhere on Wednesday, after the WSJ claimed British oil giant Shell is now in early talks to acquire its British rival BP.
But in a riveting twist (at least by finance standards?) Shell then denied the reports, labelling them nothing but “market speculation”. And BP’s share price has been on a real trip as a result, soaring 10% on the initial reports then fading on the denial.
But given a) BP’s rough year (losing almost a third of its value over external shocks plus internal missteps), and b) Shell’s record profits, the match-up has logic.
Still, it's early days, and the latest rumours suggest maybe it’s less a full buyout (the hurdles would be intense), and more a BP split-and-sell to multiple rivals.
Either way, it’s another example of the energy sector consolidating and pivoting as boardrooms hustle to adapt to a complex transition and broader global environment.
Godzilla smash: Japan crushes it
Meanwhile, Japan said “hold my Asahi” and notched up $232B in M&A deals in the first half of the year, 3x-ing this time last year. And it might just be getting started. Why?
It’s a mix of low rates, low valuations (partly a product of Japan’s corporate culture), and an economy relatively well insulated from the outside world.
Change your tune: China’s new Spotify
Apparently podcasts are a thing now? China’s tech giant Tencent already got the memo, buying one of China’s biggest podcasting startups Ximalaya for ~$2.4B.
And sure, it’s fascinating to get a window into how podcast culture is evolving in other languages — one local smash-hit is Kou Aizhe’s Story FM, featuring everyday folks telling true stories from China.
But the intriguing thing about this deal is the implication that maybe China’s Big Tech is finally out of President Xi’s political freezer — if Tencent is out there spending again, it must feel safe again. But abroad, the US-China tech war is still taking its toll: just look at the recent merger between local computing players Hygon and Sugon, a sign China’s tech sector is consolidating as external pressure mounts.
Snack on this! US-EU spat over Pringles?
A US regulator just greenlit the Mars family’s $36B acquisition of Pringles, but EU regulators are investigating whether that’d drive snack prices higher. Europe gotta snack.
Is this a bargaining move by Brussels to build leverage ahead of President Trump’s 9 July tariffs deadline? Perhaps. Or a vivid illustration of the differing antitrust philosophies between a more business-leaning Trump 2.0 and consumer-leaning EU? Definitely.
Intrigue’s Take
For the second time this week, we’ve rounded up a wild array of tales across distinct markets and sectors, but three big picture observations emerge:
First, there’s clearly an opportunistic element to this M&A boom — it’s always been a part of the creative destruction at the heart of the free market philosophy.
But second, we’d argue these M&As are also a barometer for global uncertainty: amid wars, disputes, and disruption, boardrooms are prioritising resilience and scale to hedge against a splintering world.
And third, these M&A tales also reveal something about cabinet rooms, too: technical topics like competition or energy policy are now getting wielded like cudgels in a broader race for geopolitical influence.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES - Mass diplomat layoffs today?
There’ve been growing rumours of significant layoffs at the US State Department today (Friday). And rather than using traditional metrics like performance or skillset, word is hundreds of US diplomats will be on the chopping block based on the job they happen to be in right now (diplomats shift roles a lot). (Intrigue’s rumour mill)
Comment: It’s presumably part of the administration’s efforts to cut costs and get the department more onboard with the president’s agenda. But thinning the ranks of your diplomats might complicate any efforts to achieve peace through strength.
🇮🇱 ISRAEL - More aid halts.
Israel has halted aid deliveries in the north of Gaza, after images emerged of armed men sitting atop aid trucks. Local clan chiefs say these men were protecting the aid, not Hamas members stealing it. Meanwhile, Hamas has claimed responsibility for planting a bomb that killed seven Israeli troops in Khan Younis. (The Guardian)
🇨🇩 DR CONGO - Peace at last?
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and neighbouring Rwanda are expected to sign a truce in Washington today (Friday) to end years of conflict. (East African)
Comment: We’ll take any good news, but the pact seems pretty vague on key details, like the timeline for any withdrawal of Rwandan troops from DRC turf.
🇨🇳 CHINA - Neighbooouuurs, unite!
Just as NATO wrapped its summit, China answered by hosting the defence ministers from the 10-member Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), including China, Russia, India, Iran, and several of the ‘Stans. China used the gathering to call for a joint response to “hegemonic behaviour” (ie, the US). (Strait Times)
Comment: The SCO isn’t exactly known for its joint responses — several of the Central Asian members are seizing Russia’s distraction to chart a more independent course, while India continues to strike a balance between wanting a seat at the table, yet also using that seat to halt consensus lest its rival China gets too much done.
🇮🇪 IRELAND - Vaccines ahoy.
The same day the US health secretary (RFK Jr) announced a halt to support for the international ‘Gavi’ vaccine alliance over what he described as safety concerns, Ireland was one of several Western governments pledging a ramp-up in funding, guided by Ireland’s “principle of reaching the furthest behind first.” (Euractiv)
🇲🇲 MYANMAR - Elections, finally?
The ruling junta has announced plans to hold elections later this year or early next. (CNA)
Comment: Our working assumption is any elections would be a sham given how many contenders are in jail, but it might be an attempt to ease international pressure and explore a way out of the brutal civil war the junta’s 2021 coup triggered.
🇬🇹 GUATEMALA - Deal or no deal.
There are differing reports on what agreements Guatemala and Honduras might’ve signed during a visit by US homeland security chief Kristi Noem this week. Noem says she signed deals allowing the US to deport asylum-seekers, whereas Honduras and Guatemala have each issued varying denials. (AP)
Comment: It’d be politically touchy for these two left-leaning governments — and from countries already seeing emigration to the US — to then sign these kinds of deals with the US. Our guess is they both did deals, but are managing the optics.
Extra Intrigue
In other worlds…
Fashion: Anna Wintour is giving up her coveted title of Vogue’s Editor-in-Chief, though she’s ✌️handing the reins✌️ to an underling still reporting to her.
Museums: London authorities are opening a vast secret network of tunnels to the public, with plans for an underground bar and an intelligence museum.
Corporates: The administration is ditching the ‘revenge tax’ in president Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’, which critics feared could’ve spooked foreign capital.
From our sponsors
In the final episode of None Of The Above’s ‘90s Rewind, Mark Hannah is joined by Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group and the Institute for Global Affairs. Together they explore the geopolitical legacy of the 1990s, including souring US-Russia relations and the rise of China, and why it still matters today. Listen wherever you find podcasts!
Resort of the day
Bro is absolutely flying. From North Korean state media
Aaahhhhhhh. Is there anything more relaxing than putting on a dark suit and observing sternly as some guy absolutely launches himself from a yellow water slide?
We might have to ask North Korea’s Kim Jong Un who, after nearly eight years of construction, decided to launch a massive water resort rather than ballistic missiles this week. His special guest? None other than the Russian ambassador to Pyongyang.
Now, before you go jump online to book that weekend girls’ trip to Wonsan, it’s unclear which or even if any foreigners (beyond Russians) will be allowed in. So why build this thing at all? It’s a flex to project internal stability, keep the local elites happy, and deepen alignment with Russia.