1️⃣ Tense moments at this year’s G20 | 2️⃣ The Intrigue jobs board | 3️⃣ Embassy of the day |
Hi Intriguer. China hosted the 2016 G20 Summit in the beautiful lakeside city of Hangzhou. I was in the Australian delegation to that G20 and I remember in the weeks leading up to the meeting, China essentially emptied the city of people in the name of security — nine or ten million people were given tickets to a local scenic mountain and told to lose themselves in nature for a few days.
The summit itself was a once-in-a-lifetime experience, but it’s not quite as glamorous as it sounds. I spent the best part of three days stuck behind a computer screen, drafting, re-drafting, and re-re-drafting paragraphs that never got close to seeing the light of day.
I learned there that what doesn’t make the final joint communique is often the most interesting — the less the document says, the more disagreement we can assume there was. Bear that in mind as you read our key takeaways from the G20 Summit in Rio this week.
US to send Ukraine anti-personnel mines.
The Biden Administration has reportedly agreed to send Kyiv ‘non-persistent’ anti-personnel land mines to slow the advance of Russian troops in the east. Russia has made inroads recently, capturing almost six times as much territory in 2024 as it did last year. Meanwhile, several Western embassies in Kyiv are closed today (Wednesday) after the US received "specific information of a potential significant air attack" on the capital in retaliation for Ukraine’s missile attack inside Russia on Tuesday.
Hong Kong media mogul testifies for the first time.
Pro-democracy activist and media mogul Jimmy Lai took the stand for the first time in his national security trial today (Wednesday), the first time he has spoken publicly in four years. Lai faces charges of colluding with foreign forces and conspiring to publish seditious materials, which he denies. If convicted, Lai could face a life sentence.
Cautious optimism over an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
The US senior envoy to the Middle East Amos Hochstein has stayed overnight in Beirut ahead of a second day of talks about a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hezbollah. Hochstein said on Tuesday that the differences between the sides had “narrowed” in discussions in recent weeks.
Food crisis in Gaza deepens after aid trucks looted.
Nearly 100 UN aid trucks were looted by armed men over the weekend, leading to a spike in prices in the already food-deprived Gaza. The amount of aid entering Gaza has dropped to an 11-month low, according to Israeli data.
Danish Navy detains suspected Chinese sabotage ship.
A Chinese bulk carrier called Yi Peng 3 was stopped in the Danish Straits last night after it came under suspicion of sabotaging several key telecom lines connecting Finland to Germany, and Sweden to Lithuania earlier this week. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called the incident "deliberate sabotage."
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While northern hemisphere leaders will have been delighted to escape their frosty capitals, we can assure you that it is simply a coincidence that the APEC Summit last week and the G20 Summit this week were held in the balmy cities of Lima and Rio de Janeiro, respectively.
As always, we’ve parsed the meetings, the statements, and the final G20 communique so you can get on with your day (oh and if you missed our readout of APEC, go ahead and treat yourself!).
The intriguing bits of the final communique
🇺🇦 Europe disappointed by Ukraine statement. The US, UK, EU, and Australia all wanted the “strongest possible” stance on Ukraine, calling out Russian aggression. But China and Russia teamed up to ensure there were only vague references to “human suffering and the negative added impact of war” in the final document. A Downing Street spokesperson called the statement “disappointing,” while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, "It is too little when the G20 cannot find the words to make it clear Russia is responsible [for the war in Ukraine].”
🇦🇷 Milei keeps Trump’s seat warm. Intriguingly, Argentinian President Javier Milei seemed to be representing his good friend, US President-elect Donald Trump: "I'm not a politician, nor do I aspire to be one. Just like President Trump I had to step into this putrid swamp as an act of self-defence." Milei and his diplomats played the role of spoiler during the summit, almost scuttling the final communique over disagreements on issues of gender equality, taxation of billionaires, and sustainable development.
🍃 A message to climate negotiators in Baku. The final G20 statement called on negotiators at the UN climate summit COP29 to reach a deal on a new financial goal. Determining how much wealthier nations must give to developing nations has been one of the main sticking points in the climate talks.
💸 Taxing the ultra-rich? Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hoped to push through an agreement to increase taxes on the global super-rich. While tax-advocacy groups are celebrating the fact that G20 leaders endorsed a statement made by their finance ministers back in July, the US, Germany, and Argentina indicated they’re not likely to support any concrete action to increase taxes on billionaires.
UK’s Starmer raises human rights issues with China’s Xi
Britain's new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose approval rating has crashed a historic 49 points since Labour’s landslide election victory in July, raised several human rights issues with China's Xi Jinping during a bilateral meeting on Monday, just as Hong Kong prepared to sentence more than 45 pro-democracy activists.
Starmer specifically raised the case of Jimmy Lai, a British citizen of Hong Kong descent facing trial in Hong Kong, before broadening the conversation to focus on Taiwan, as well as Chinese sanctions against British parliamentarians.
Having already floated the possibility of either visiting Beijing himself or hosting Chinese Premier Li Qiang in London, Starmer expressed his "concern" about Lai's "deteriorating" condition. Xi's team responded predictably by promptly ushering British journalists from the room. So, it’s reasonable to assume Starmer won’t be getting the red-carpet treatment in Beijing anytime soon.
Putin rattles his nuclear sabre again
While most G20 members sent their leaders, Russia's Vladimir Putin—who remains the subject of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant—sent Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov instead.
But Putin nonetheless made his presence felt on Tuesday, dropping the policy bomb that Russia had amended its nuclear doctrine to allow nuclear retaliation against a conventional attack. Essentially, an attack by a “non-nuclear power but with the participation or support of a nuclear power” will be seen as a “joint attack” on Russia.
Just as we were hitting send on yesterday’s edition of International Intrigue, news broke that Ukraine had launched six US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles at a military facility in Bryansk. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed yesterday that these kinds of strikes could allow Russia to respond with nuclear weapons under its newly revised doctrine.
And it was with Russia’s now-familiar nuclear threats hanging in the air that Brazil handed the G20 baton to South Africa, who will host next year’s summit.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
So what to make of Rio 2024? Well, not much - with host Lula trying to push through a politically divisive agenda, a lame-duck US president, and wrecker-in-chief Javier Milei playing his role to perfection, people we’ve talked to in Rio said there was palpable disorganisation and division in the negotiation rooms.
The problem is, big global summits like the G20 are most useful when they end with a clear, organising message about the priorities of the world’s most powerful governments. The ‘perfect’ summit statement would give businesses and bureaucracies the confidence to make strategic decisions for the long term.
Instead, we got a summit during which President Lula grew so sick of the infighting that he published the final communique early, much to the chagrin of the delegates who were still trading barbs behind the scenes.
Also worth noting:
US President Joe Biden did not talk to the press pool once during his six-day trip to South America.
Brazilian police arrested five people on Tuesday morning accused of planning to assassinate then-President-elect Lula in 2022, days before he took office.
🇨🇳 China: China’s historical CO2 emissions surpassed Europe’s for the first time ever last year, making it the second-largest polluting country in the world. The US is still by far the globe’s biggest total emitter of CO2.
🇸🇪 Sweden: Authorities in Sweden have started disseminating new pamphlets advising citizens on what to do in case of war or another unexpected crisis. Norway and Finland have taken similar steps recently, following a decline in their security outlook due to the Russo-Ukraine war.
🇳🇿 New Zealand: Around 40,000 people joined a protest march on Tuesday against a proposed bill that critics say will dilute indigenous Maori rights in New Zealand. A majority of parties have vowed to vote against the bill.
🇨🇦 Canada: Authorities foiled an Iranian assassination plot to kill former Canadian justice minister and Tehran critic Irwin Cotler. Cotler retired from politics in 2015 but has remained active in human rights organisations.
🇨🇩 DR Congo: Plastic waste at one of the country’s biggest electric dams is causing regular power cuts in cities. The government is currently in talks with the World Bank to fund a mega hydroelectric dam project that could produce up to 44,000 megawatts of power.
Butler @ the US Ambassador’s residence in London (that’s Winfield House!)
Risk Analyst @ XL Catlin in Singapore
Senior Disaster Risk Reduction Officer @ International Rescue Committee in Pattani, Thailand
Procurement Lead @ Samsung in New York
Credit: Russian consulate building in Poznań via Facebook
Pictured above: the Russian consulate in Poznań, a historic gem of a city in Poland. But don’t get too attached to that tricolour flag — its days are numbered. According to Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, the lease on the consulate is up, and Warsaw has new tenants in mind. Starting next month, the building will be flying the Ukrainian flag.
Yes, you read that right. Kyiv pitched the idea of taking over the space, and Poland gave it the thumbs-up and this diplomatic outpost will soon switch hands between the two warring nations.
What skill do you think world leaders attending international summits should brush up on? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory will be a game changer?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🚀 Yes, it'll increase costs for Russia and strengthen Ukraine's position in future negotiations (40%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 💥 Yes, but it'll end up escalating the conflict further (35%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤷 No, it won't matter that much (20%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)
Your two cents:
🚀 B.J: “It doesn't make sense that Ukraine has its hands tied while Putin and strike anywhere he wants. Must we always remind folks that Putin invaded Ukraine?”
💥 S.L: “It will basically force Russia to increase the number of rockets fired at Ukraine. Enough rockets can overwhelm the defence system”
🤷 E.K.M: “The real game-changer (for better or worse) takes office in January. This is all set up for whatever comes next.”
✍️ G.P: “So, approval for their use BUT strict restrictions on where they can be used is not allowing Ukraine to fight the war. It is trying to micro-manage the battle. Limiting use to the Kursk region has more to do with a measured response to the use of NK troops'“
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