🌍 The Russo-Ukraine war: a winter deal?

Plus: Breakthrough of the day

December 11, 2024

IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ A Russo-Ukraine deal?
2️⃣ A bombshell report in Hungary
3️⃣ Breakthrough of the day

Hi Intriguer. I reckon one of the best courses I took while at grad school was the negotiations course. It was truly an eye opening experience into both human nature and the ‘tradecraft’ of how to negotiate on your terms.

The lecturer, the legendary Brian Mandell, is well known for his multiparty negotiation prowess and sharing insights like “the art and science of negotiation is letting others have it your way”; and “the key to winning a negotiation is anchoring high”.

I wonder if these are some of the thoughts swirling around the heads of the negotiators dealing with the Russo-Ukraine conflict right now. As we’ll see in today’s top story, everyone is vying to figure what the other wants as we look towards a potential peace deal.

THE HEADLINES

Ukraine helped Syria’s rebels topple Assad.
According to The Washington Post, Ukraine provided the rebels with 150 drones and 20 experienced trainers to help topple Assad in an effort to undermine his Russian backers. Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader has blamed the US, Israel, and Turkey for Assad’s fall, while Israel has confirmed it’s virtually destroyed Assad’s entire naval fleet.

Police raid President Yoon’s office.
South Korean authorities have raided President Yoon’s office as part of their probe into his short-lived martial law attempt last week, while his implicated defence minister has attempted to take his own life in detention. Interestingly, North Korea has now finally made public comments on the scandal, accusing Yoon of using the “gun and knives of dictatorship” — what’s that saying about the pot and the kettle?

French military withdraws from Chad.
France has begun pulling its troops from Chad, two weeks after its former African colony announced it was ending their long-running security agreement. Senegal has recently demanded the same, as France’s influence in the region continues to wane.

Netanyahu takes the stand in corruption trial. 
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has appeared in a Tel Aviv court to testify in a long-running trial against him. Netanyahu faces charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, which he’s rejected as “excessive and delusional”.

TOP STORY

The Russo-Ukraine war: a winter deal?

Clockwise from top-left: NATO’s Rutte, Poland’s Tusk, Russia’s Putin, France’s Macron, Ukraine’s Zelensky, and America’s Trump.

French President Macron unveiled the newly restored Notre Dame Cathedral over the weekend, but many eyes were on two guests sitting in the pews — Donald Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.

There were photos and handshakes, but the two offered little insight into their 40-minute chat before the service, so let’s look at the key question: what do they want?

Sure, everyone says they want peace. But what does everyone really want?

  1. Zelensky 🇺🇦 

President Zelensky turned heads on Monday when he said there’s “no doubt, a diplomatic resolution would save more lives. We do seek it." There’s been some breathlessness that maybe this signals an easing in his position, but it’s equally possible this was just a shift in rhetoric to avoid being painted as the problem ahead of Trump 2.0. Still, one reason his choice of words was notable was the fact he’s not alone: just hours ago, his neighbour, backer, and the EU’s next rotating president (Poland) hinted negotiations could start this winter.

So, what else do we know?

  • Zelensky has made clear he wants a permanent solution to the conflict rather than a ceasefire that simply allows Moscow to regroup then attack again.

  • For Zelensky, that means some form of military deterrence, whether joining NATO, deploying strategic arms, and/or hosting Western troops. There are varying degrees of viability at play here, but his core point is that, for Ukraine, this invasion is itself evidence of Russia breaching past commitments (1975, 1994, 1997, etc) that weren’t backed by hard power.

  • As for territory, Zelensky has shifted a little here too, acknowledging last week that "our army lacks the strength to do that [retake all lost land ], that is true. We do have to find diplomatic solutions."

Of course, he’s also under huge pressure, with Trump 2.0 flagging possible cuts to US support, while Russia makes grinding gains, which all takes us to…

  1. Putin 🇷🇺

President Putin’s stated goals have long been Ukraine’s “de-nazification”, de-militarisation, and neutrality. And he’s gone further, even describing Ukraine as “not a real country”.

But what does this really mean? At face value, it means replacing Ukraine’s elected (Jewish) president, hamstringing its military, and banning it from NATO. Zooming out, that means a weak and unstable Ukraine beholden to Moscow. And zooming out again, that means a world based not on sovereign states and international law, but on self-defined ‘spheres of influence’ — major powers running their own ‘hoods.

Of course, there’s a spectrum of possible options along each aim, plus his persistent calls for sanctions relief and keeping his spoils (including land he hasn’t even seized yet). So how do we know where Putin’s real lines are? It’s a guessing game in autocracies, but his spy chief just claimed (🇷🇺) Putin is close to winning, while his own office says his goals “will be exactly what Putin considers necessary to declare his victory”.

You could interpret this circular reasoning as standard bluster. Or you could interpret it as Putin’s proxies shifting his goalposts closer given the pressures he’s facing: humiliation in Syria, staggering losses in Ukraine, and elites starting to say the quiet bits out loud back home — his record 21% interest rates to hose down inflation have triggered public bankruptcy warnings across retail, industry, and even arms manufacturers. But this also makes it harder for Putin to stop: can he justify it all for only the 20% of Ukraine he’s got?

  1. Trump 🇺🇸

He’s not president yet, but Trump’s moves will already have the biggest impact on how other players read the room: not just Putin and Zelensky, but their respective backers.

So where is Trump at? There are mixed signals: several of his key national security picks have been relatively establishment figures who’ve publicly backed Ukraine’s self-defence. And whatever is happening behind closed doors — plus Trump’s tweet highlighting Russian weakness over the weekend — there’s relief coming out of European capitals that maybe he doesn’t want to risk his own Saigon or Kabul moment by abandoning Ukraine.

But he’s still saying (as recently as Monday) that he’s open to reducing aid to Ukraine and even pulling the US out of NATO. Maybe that’s another classic ‘threaten then negotiate’ Trump move, like he just pulled against Mexico and Canada? Maybe.

Meanwhile, the outgoing Biden administration continues to rush its remaining security assistance to Kyiv, and just transferred $20B generated from seized Russian assets.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Some of the most interesting thinkers on Russia come from places it’s previously occupied, like Estonia. And one example is its former PM (Kaja Kallas), who just became the EU’s top diplomat. She often quotes a Soviet foreign minister (Gromyko) when describing the Russian approach to negotiation:

  1. Demand something that’s not yours (Ukraine, in this case)

  2. Make threats (including nuclear), then

  3. Don’t give an inch in negotiations, because in the West there’ll always be someone willing to offer you something, and you’ll end up with a third or even half the thing you didn’t have before (see step 1 above).

So how to respond? Negotiation guru Herb Cohen actually wrote a whole chapter about this in his book, and his conclusion is as simple as it is difficult: never play that game. To be clear, his point wasn’t to never negotiate. Rather, it’s to be clear-eyed about the game your adversary is trying to play, then go ahead and play your own.

Also worth noting:

  • Trump’s rapport with Zelensky looks to have improved: he seemingly wore Ukraine’s blue and yellow to their Notre Dame meeting, then went for a second chat after attendees gave Zelensky a standing ovation.

  • Ditto, Zelensky tweeted yesterday that he appreciates Trump’s “decisiveness”, describing it as “exactly what can help”.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

  1. 🇨🇳 China: According to Politico, European airlines flying to Asia are losing market share to rivals from China, after Russia banned Western airlines from crossing its airspace. At least five European carriers have now stopped offering direct services altogether, while China’s airlines have expanded their routes.

  2. 🇭🇺 Hungary: Hungarian outlets have published a bombshell report claiming local intelligence services spied on visiting EU anti-fraud officials, including by wiretapping their phones and searching their hotel. At the time, the investigators were looking into a company owned by Prime Minister Orbán’s son-in-law.

  3. 🇹🇴 Tonga: Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni has abruptly quit his post shortly before he was due to face a no-confidence vote. Sovaleni didn’t offer a reason, but he’s long been at loggerheads with Tonga’s king, who retains powers to dissolve parliament and veto laws. 

  4. 🇧🇷 Brazil: President Lula da Silva (79) has undergone emergency brain surgery following a head injury he suffered from a fall back in October. Brazil’s VP is temporarily assuming Lula’s duties while the president recovers in an intensive care unit.

  5. 🇬🇳 Guinea: The West African nation is planning to use profits from the world’s largest iron ore deposit to create a sovereign wealth fund. Meanwhile, China hopes this vast ‘Simandou’ mine, which is due to start production by 2026, can help it diversify away from its dependence on Australian and Brazilian ore.

Unlock the power of AI without sacrificing your data.

  • Completely Private

  • No data exploitation or surveillance

  • Intelligent insights, yours alone

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on in the 📅 next few days

  • 🇫🇷 France’s Macron is due in Warsaw for meetings with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. 

  • 🇷🇺 Russian President Vladimir Putin is meeting with his own ministers today, after hosting India’s defence minister yesterday, Rajnath Singh.

  • 🇬🇧 UK parliamentarian and Trump supporter Nigel Farage will travel to the US on Sunday to headline a MAGA event.

  • 🇶🇦 Qatar has suggested it’ll shortly reopen its embassy in Damascus now that the Assad regime has collapsed.

  • And outgoing 🇺🇸 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Ankara to meet his Turkish counterpart on Friday, presumably to discuss a post-Assad Syria.

BREAKTHROUGH OF THE DAY

Google made an exciting announcement yesterday. Well, exciting for nerds like us.

The company claims its new quantum computing chip called Willow performed a computation (i.e. a very hard calculation) in under five minutes, that would otherwise take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years. That’s older than our universe, and even longer than it takes to read an edition of The Economist.

While the chip is a long way away from commercial applications, Google is hoping quantum computing will be able to solve problems in medicine and artificial intelligence.

Yesterday’s poll: Who do you think the US-China tit for tat will hurt most?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇺🇸 The US (19%)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇨🇳 China (24%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💼 Multinationals (12%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🌎 The world at large (42%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

  • 🌎 V.R: “Both the US and China have massive economies and will do ok. Multinationals always find ways to ensure self-interest and profit prevails. It’s developing economies and the vulnerable who will be impacted the most.”

  • 🇨🇳 E.K.H: “China will hurt most, in the short term at least. But if the new US administration goes forward with some of its more aggressive moves, and we can't rebuild domestic manufacturing fast enough (both pretty likely), then the US is in for a world of long-term hurt.”

  • 🇺🇸 B.K: “With the US trying to strongarm allies into not supporting Chinese chip manufacturing, it has only forced China to innovate and potentially outsell the US.”

Was this forwarded to you? We're a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 100k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.

Reply

or to participate.