Today’s briefing:
— Venezuela’s geopolitical aftershock
— A mysterious package bomb in Monaco
— This country thinks ninja turtles are real
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Venezuela’s geopolitical aftershock
— A mysterious package bomb in Monaco
— This country thinks ninja turtles are real
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Years ago I spent my first night in Caracas at Hotel Odeon in the capital’s Sabana Grande district. I can still remember the way the creaky elevator would stop for its occasional philosophical pause — you’d then hear merengue thumping in the distance, and smell fresh arepas wafting up from the street.
Some of the earliest grim footage from last week’s devastating twin earthquakes in Venezuela came from that same dense, urban, and lively Caracas district.
While the full human toll is still emerging, the political and geopolitical ramifications are already coming into sharp focus. It’s time we took a look.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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🍸 Heads-up we’ll take a quick break this Friday!
Number of the day
1986
That’s the last time the yen traded this weak (162.20) against the USD, despite Japan’s central bank raising rates to their highest since 2008. The rate differential with the US is one of the main drivers here, sparking speculation the BoJ might intervene again.
Venezuela strong.
Six days on from the dual 7.2 and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes that hit northern Venezuela, the sheer scale of devastation is now emerging: entire neighbourhoods in La Guaira (the port supplying Caracas) have been ruined, with tens of thousands still reported missing.
So with these sobering stats as context, let’s look at what this might all mean for…
🇻🇪 The Venezuelan government
Nicolás Maduro’s veep (Delcy Rodriguez) has been running the show ever since US special forces seized her dictator boss in January. And while she’s been adept at consolidating power and keeping her US patrons on-side, this disaster will make or break her.
A successful response could help bolster her legitimacy, unify her people, and side-line the opposition. But a poor response could erode whatever legitimacy she still enjoys, expose her regime’s fragility, and fuel the opposition’s rallying cry. So… which is it?
Right now, our money is on option b: after decades of decay under her authoritarian party, she’s already getting jeered in the streets as communities still await first contact, while overwhelmed hospitals openly rely on BYO bandages and other supplies.
But there’s also outrage amid claims she’s exploiting the crisis. Eg, folks are angry at…
Of course, regime supporters argue it’s the opposition trying to politicise a tragedy, and point out that Rodriguez has (unlike her forerunner Chavez after the 1999 landslides) now accepted help from ideological rivals, like El Salvador’s Bukele and Argentina’s Milei.
Either way, the real test might come longer-term as alleged scandals come into focus — locals are already venting that many of Venezuela’s collapsed buildings were the product of notorious Chavez/Maduro-era housing projects rushed by corrupt insiders.
So okay, if the Rodriguez regime is already under pressure, then what about…
✊ The opposition
Pro-democracy opposition figure María Corina Machado has been exiled since December, when she evaded Maduro’s bogus arrest warrants to make a surprise Oslo appearance for her Nobel Peace Prize. Maduro actually cancelled her passport!
But even with Maduro gone, his security apparatus (SEBIN) is still in place, so there are still credible fears for her safety — she claims Delcy has already blocked her return twice.
More intriguingly, there are reports DC actually discouraged her from returning via neighbouring Curaçao, warning it’d be risky and divisive at a critical time.
It’s all a tricky dilemma for the opposition: aside from naturally wanting to help your compatriots, there’s the politics of being abroad during the country’s worst disaster.
But even if folks assign Delcy blame for the disaster still unfolding, there’s a parallel fear she’ll use the crisis to postpone elections and further entrench her own power.
Anyway, we now have Corina Machado’s answer — the opposition figure is now in Panama, pledging to return home imminently, which brings us to another key power…
🇺🇸 The US
Within hours of the quakes, US Secretary of State Rubio was already pledging support: “It'll be big; it'll be fast; and it'll be effective.” And there are indeed now 100+ US disaster responders on the ground, while DC pipes $50M to various in-country aid groups and temporarily exempts relief efforts from US sanctions.
Why…? Beyond obviously just being the humane thing to do, particularly after you’ve just ousted the previous dictator, there’s also…
The broader credibility of US alignment (everyone’s better off being our friend)
The imperative of boxing out rivals like China, Russia, and Cuba, and
The self-interest of preventing more destabilising emigration and armed groups.
Most of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is far from the epicentre. But then there’s the…
🌎 Rest of the world
Exploring the geopolitical dimension of aid and disaster relief isn’t meant to take away from the dangerous and difficult work of the thousands already there on the ground — beyond the heroism of Venezuelans themselves, Rodriguez has thanked the 24 countries who’ve already sent 521 tons of aid, 86 canine units, and 2,700 specialists.
Intrigue’s Take
One of the more remarkable trends now playing out amid this tragedy is the way locals are openly condemning this regime: one friend of Intrigue just…
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — The latest.
President Trump has sent envoys Rubio and Witkoff to Qatar to continue peace talks with Iran, amid Tehran’s denials any such talks are even scheduled. (Independent)
Comment: This looks like familiar shadow diplomacy, with both sides leaking just enough to push their narrative while maintaining plausible deniability at home. What feels new this time is the rising cross-party rancour in DC, where critics from both sides are questioning if this is a real deal or another cycle of concessions for a pause.
🇦🇷 ARGENTINA — Top aide resigns.
President Milei’s powerful cabinet chief and longtime spokesman, Manuel Adorni, has resigned over a growing corruption scandal. (AP)
Comment: Aides come and go, but this one hits different — Adorni was one of Milei’s most effective media operators and public defenders, and Milei initially stood by him. It all now risks further damaging the “clean break from old politics” image that’s underpinned Milei’s rise to power and his ongoing ability to reform the economy.
🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION — More China trade talks.
The EU has reopened high-level trade talks with China, setting a three-month deadline for progress to re-balance China’s massive trade surplus. (Politico)
Comment: Beijing is pretty experienced at forcing Europe to blink by picking off member states one-by-one. Will this time be any different? Germany’s continued industrial bleed (VW is mulling another 100k job cuts!) is pushing Berlin closer to Paris’s tougher trade stance, but we’ll believe any shift when we see it.
🇨🇩 DR CONGO — ICJ escalation.
The DRC has filed a case at The Hague’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) holding Rwanda responsible for decades of violence in eastern Congo, including by supporting the M23 armed group. (BBC)
Comment: We at Intrigue ditched the “allegedly” around Rwanda’s M23 links years ago, but any ICJ case will now take years. In the meantime, it’s a Congolese attempt to internationalise pressure on Rwanda and shape the regional narrative.
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA — Trillion dollar question.
President Lee has unveiled Korea’s largest investment package in history, pledging $1.2T over the next decade towards chips, AI, batteries, biotech, and defence. (CNA)
Comment: It’s a familiar strategy — massive state-backed bets on tech, executed by the chaebol (Korea’s family-run conglomerates). But what’s new is both a) the scale (more than half Korea’s entire GDP), and b) the timing (barely days after Japan’s Takaichi unveiled a similar package). Amid real debt and execution risks, it seems these two US allies are now embarking on a subsidy arms race to protect and expand their foothold in the free world’s broader tech stack.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Guo gets 30 years.
A federal court has sentenced exiled Chinese billionaire and vocal CCP critic Guo Wengui to 30 years in a US prison for a massive scam that defrauded investors (often inspired by his anti-CCP crusade) out of hundreds of millions. (ABC)
Comment: Beijing is already using Guo’s conviction as vindication of something the ruling Party has claimed all along: its loudest critics are grifters.
🇲🇨 MONACO — Trouble in paradise?
A parcel bomb has rocked a luxury residential building in central Monaco, injuring Russia-linked and Ukrainian-born oligarch Vadym Yermolaiev and two family members. Local authorities say the unnamed suspect has fled to France. (AP)
Comment: It’s a rare security breach in a tax haven that markets itself as a safe port for the world’s rich. Prosecutors are staying tight-lipped, but Yermolaiev had no shortage of enemies, whether rival oligarchs, Ukraine’s security services (over his Russia links), or even Putin’s hitmen (some claim Yermolaiev played both sides).
Extra Intrigue
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Managing Director, Risk Management @ EBRD in London
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Spy of the day
Intrigue’s impression of the new spy-turtle.
We’ve tracked various alleged spy-animals over the years, whether Russia’s spy-whale in Norway or China’s spy-pigeon in India.
But according (🇨🇳) to China’s Ministry of State Security, a new spy-animal just dropped, and it’s waging an “invisible secret war”: the spy-turtle.
Leaving aside the obvious question whether it’s named James Pond, China’s lead intel agency claims it’s found a few of these creatures roaming stretches of China’s coastline kitted out with sensors to beam temperature, salinity, and ocean current data abroad.
Who would want that kind of top sea-cret fin-tellligence? Sure, it could be useful for a rival navy to map China’s coastal defences and submarine acoustic signatures. Or… it could just be marine biologists doing what they’ve done for decades: tagging sea creatures to study migration and climate change.
The difference? One of those theories is important but boring science. The other is something a security state might blast across the world’s largest stand-alone social platform to justify its own domestic control.
Today’s poll
Who do you think is behind the Monaco parcel bomb?
Yesterday’s poll: With US-Iran talks (and attacks) continuing, do you think oil prices will end the year higher or lower than they are now?
🛢️ Higher (tell us why...) (60%)
⬇️ Lower (tell us why...) (38%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
🛢️ G.M.G: “General inflationary pressures internationally + US recent poor international negotiation tactics vs Iran’s control of traffic confidence boost.”
✍️ J.W: “About the same. The risk of major escalation is mitigated. Remaining risk is pretty much baked into current prices.”
⬇️ F: “Election pressure.”
✏️ Corrections corner
Our thanks to those Canucks who clarified that 24 Sussex Drive is ordinarily the PM’s residence, while Rideau Hall is ordinarily the governor-general’s residence! 🤦