Today’s briefing:
— US-Iran talks in 4 numbers
— Orbán out
— 6,800 kilos of guac
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Imagine this: it’s the year 1600-and-something, and foreign invaders are threatening your valley, so you have to delay your vineyard harvest — by the time you can pick those sweet sweet grapes, they’re all shriveled with some strange botrytis rot, but you use them anyway because yolo.
Well somehow, you’ve just accidentally created one of the world’s first great botrytized wines, which Louis XIV later anoints “the wine of kings, and the king of wines”. It’s such a big deal, in fact, the local emperor (Franz Joseph) later sends Queen Victoria a dozen bottles for every year of her reign (unclear how many she downed), while Peter the Great famously has to deploy Cossacks to defend his own vast annual shipment of the stuff.
I’m talking, of course, about Hungary’s famous Tokaji (pronounced tok-eye), which I’m guessing has flowed like the Danube this weekend as voters — happy or sad — end 16 years of Orbán rule in favour of his former protege, Péter Magyar. More below.
But first, let’s check in on the weekend’s collapsed US-Iran talks.
Number of the day
18,000km (11,185mi)
That’s the length of Pope Leo XIV’s first Africa trip, covering 11 cities across four countries (Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea). More than a fifth of the world's Catholics now live across the continent.
Stalk the talk.
With the deluge of headlines after US-Iran talks collapsed in Pakistan over the weekend, here are the four numbers you need to know, starting with...
1977
That's the last time we saw direct US-Iran contact this senior (VP Vance vs Speaker Ghalibaf). And yet that 1977 contact wasn't even with this regime, but its beleaguered pro-US predecessor — in Tehran, President Carter famously toasted the Shah's "island of stability", a week before seminary students started the protests that ousted him!
Our point? This weekend's sheer seniority suggests, for all the bluster and blockading, there's at least a sliver of political will to talk. Maybe more than ever? But…
21 hours
That's how long these Vance-Ghalibaf talks lasted. In one sense, it’s a marathon, reflecting genuine dialogue rather than pointless monologues. But in another sense, 21 hours is laughably little when you recall it took two years for foreign ministers Zarif and Kerry to hash out the Obama-era JCPOA, or 12 years if you want to start the timer back when the world first discovered Iran's secret enrichment facilities in 2002.
Our point? As we've long flagged, these two sides are far apart: Vance insisted the regime ditch its nuclear, proxy, and Hormuz ambitions (aka Iranian capitulation), while Ghalibaf demanded sanctions relief, enrichment rights, plus Hormuz control (aka US capitulation).
And that takes us to...
10am ET today (Monday)
That's when President Trump's new Hormuz blockade enters force, citing Iran's refusal to give up its nuclear program. Trump warned he'd stop every vessel, but CENTCOM later clarified non-Iranian ports are exempt.
It's all an attempt to squeeze the regime's revenue at home and blame it for energy chaos abroad, though in practice it means tanker captains now have to choose between exiting the Strait in defiance of either a) Iran, or b) Trump. Most will have no choice but to go with c) none of the above, staying put and exacerbating the energy crisis in the short term.
Our point? This is now a standoff between assumptions: either higher energy prices will tame Trump, or collapsing energy revenues will tame the regime. But...
70+
That's how many heavy US military air transports entered the region in the ~48 hours after these talks collapsed, tripling last week's rate. Combined with DC's usual calibrated media leaks, it suggests Trump might pair this blockade with a round of targeted strikes to test Iran's red lines. That’d also mightily test the definition of this whole ceasefire, while the Iranians will of course now realistically re-arm, potentially with the help of China.
Our point? This is unleashing an entirely new gyre of unknowns: might a China-bound tanker test this US blockade? Would the US really seize another China-bound tanker? And faced with risks to 13% of its oil imports (painful but hardly existential), might China in turn consider reviving some of its own leverage (eg rare earths) against the US?
Anyway, even with the seniority and substance of the weekend's talks, their collapse means our fragile two-week ceasefire looks even more fragile, with no round two in the calendar (yet).
Intrigue’s Take
The thing about playing your big 'or else' card is that as soon as you play it, it loses its magic. The US always warned the regime better ditch its nuclear ambitions, or else (war). And the regime always warned the US better stay away, or else (Hormuz stranglehold). But both foes have now played their big card, and here we are: Iran's regime is still standing (if with a limp), while the global economy is still moving (if with a cough).
That brings us to today, with even less trust, but also less fear about what the other might do. The result is a complete mismatch in each side's assumptions about the other: it turns out the regime doesn't (yet) feel defeated, and the US doesn't (yet) feel cowed.
So — still sitting on more (if risky) options, the US has now played its blockade ‘or else’ card in an attempt to get the same outcome as its foreshadowed Kharg Island option (capitulation) but maybe without many of the same risks (casualties). We might not know the outcome until the two sides inevitably meet again for round two.
Until then, it seems both foes still see the political costs of a deal as higher than the military and economic costs of defiance.
Today’s briefing is presented by…
Go from AI overwhelmed to AI savvy professional
AI will eliminate 300 million jobs in the next 5 years.
Yours doesn't have to be one of them.
Here's how to future-proof your career:
Join the Superhuman AI newsletter - read by 1M+ professionals
Learn AI skills in 3 mins a day
Become the AI expert on your team
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇭🇺 HUNGARY — Strongman down!
Moscow-sympathetic populist strongman Viktor Orbán (62) has conceded defeat after 16 years in power, handing the reins to the centre-right’s Péter Magyar (45), whose opposition party has romped home to a two-thirds supermajority. (Euractiv)
Comment: Many will celebrate the ouster of Orbán, whose ‘Hungary first’ approach has often come at the cost of EU/NATO unity on existential questions like how to counter Russian aggression — Orbán has also arguably been Beijing’s friendliest face in the EU. But this election ultimately hinged more on local issues like political corruption and entrenchment, rather than any pledge to suddenly pivot hard-West.
🇵🇪 PERU — Delayed results.
Keiko Fujimori (daughter of the late polarising Alberto) appears to have carved a small lead in the weekend’s presidential elections, though well below the 50.1% she’d need to beat her 34 (!) opponents outright. We might know today (Monday) which two candidates face off in June’s second round. (EuroNews)
Comment: We explored the crowded race in this copper and silver powerhouse here, with the main front-runners giving pro-business and pro-US vibes.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Thanks for stopping by.
Beijing has announced a 10-point package of economic incentives for Taiwan, like more market access, support for SMEs, and the resumption of direct flights, after Xi Jinping hosted Taiwan’s more mainland-friendly opposition leader. (NHK)
Comment: China’s message to Taiwanese voters is clear here: vote for Taiwan’s more autonomy-seeking ruling party again, and you get more sticks; but vote for the more reconciliation-minded KMT, and you get more carrots. Taiwan’s presidency has already rebuked the package as “poisoned pills” and “economic coercion”.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE — Ceasefire?
Russia and Ukraine have accused one another of hundreds of ceasefire violations during their short Easter truce. (BBC)
Comment: Just as we flagged last week, this was always a question of when — not if — the ceasefire would stumble: Putin likes cosplaying as the saviour of civilisation, then blaming his own breaches on the smaller neighbour he’s still struggling to invade.
🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA — Joining forces.
The US and Australia have offered up to $600M in potential export credit agency financing to back a rare-earths refinery project spanning Western Australia (feedstock) and the US (downstream processing). (Bloomberg $)
Comment: One look at the end output (light and heavy rare earth carbonate) and their shared goal becomes clear: these niche products are a critical input for defence and clean tech, but they’re currently dominated by China. It’s one of the biggest steps so far in the US-Australia critical minerals pact leaders signed last October.
🇭🇹 HAITI — Shock.
A stampede at the UNESCO-listed Laferrière Citadel has left at least 30 dead, after the onset of heavy rains saw large crowds push through the entrance during an annual Easter celebration. (BBC)
Comment: The whole tragedy carries extra weight because the Citadel, built by revolutionary Henri Christophe, has long been a symbol of Haitian independence.
🇳🇬 NIGERIA — A deadly error?
Nigerian air force officials say they’ve hit a jihadi target, but they’ve launched a probe amid reports they also/instead hit a market and killed 100+ civilians. (NBC)
Comment: Wayward airstrikes have killed a reported 500 civilians in Nigeria since 2017, and risk playing into jihadi hands as local anger builds.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly wrap-up of the world’s lighter news…
Folks in Mexico have whipped up 6,800 kilos of guac in an attempt to break a Guinness World Record, though awkwardly, it’s unclear if they won!
Researchers say Uganda’s chimpanzees have been in a civil war for eight years.
A New Zealand sushi shop has accidentally sold a Coke bottle full of soy sauce.
Baseball’s hall of fame has accidentally snapped the bat off an Ichiro Suzuki statue during the grand ceremony to unveil it.
And researchers have had to concede that the fossil of the world’s oldest octopus isn’t even an octopus.
Gift of the day
Credits: @RosslynVA
Many DC visitors will know about the famous cherry blossoms Japan gifted the US in 1912.
But fewer these days seem to know about the 110,000 tulip bulbs the Dutch sent the United States after World War II — a colourful thank-you that still blooms every spring, right next to the Arlington National Cemetery.
With a cold snap cutting the cherry blossom season short this year, those Dutch tulips are now really stealing the show — and still quietly making their point, some 80 years on.
Today’s poll
With this new Hormuz blockade now entering force, who do you think will blink first?
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you think this US-Iran ceasefire can survive without an Israel-Hezbollah truce?
⏸️ Yes, both the US and Iran need a pause (14%)
💥 No, too much at stake (84%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
💥 S: “For it to survive we'd have to assume that Iran is abandoning its proxies, which seems unlikely.”
💥 A.G: “Does Bibi retain office once the conflicts are over?”
✍️ S.A.K: “There was never a ceasefire, just an excuse to cover up TACO.”