🌍 Turkey plans new offensive in northern Iraq

Hi Intriguer. Two of the most visible ways a country typically ‘projects’ its power abroad are through its diplomats and its troops - though not always in the same direction.

Turkey, for example, now has the world’s third-largest diplomatic network, with 40% of it (or 102 missions) in Europe - that’s also where 40% of its exports go (and most of its diaspora lives).

For today’s lead, we’re headed in the opposite direction, and with the blunter arm of state power, as Turkey plans to push its military further into northern Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish separatists.

- Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor

P.S. - We’re running a giveaway for two tickets to the hit show Lovett or Leave It in D.C. on April 25! How do you enter? Simply refer a friend using your unique link down below.

TODAY’S NEWS

The CIA’s influence operation against China. Then-President Donald Trump authorised the CIA to launch an influence operation on Chinese social media and through overseas news outlets in 2019, aimed at turning local and international sentiment against the Chinese government, according to a Reuters exclusive. The CIA reportedly promoted allegations of Communist Party officials hiding fortunes in secret offshore accounts, and criticised China’s Belt and Road Initiative as corrupt and wasteful.

Hamas presents new ceasefire proposal. Hamas has presented a new proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release deal with Israel, which would see the initial release of women, children, and elderly hostages in exchange for 700-1000 Palestinian prisoners and (after the first exchanges) a timeline for Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office said on Thursday that the new truce proposal it had received was still based on "unrealistic demands."

Biden opposes Nippon Steel deal. US President Joe Biden has said he opposes the planned $14.9B takeover of US Steel by Japanese company Nippon Steel, arguing the company should “remain domestically owned and operated.” While not formally blocking the deal, the move will please some blue-collar voters ahead of November’s election, though could create tensions with ally Japan. The CEO of US rival Cleveland-Cliffs says he’d consider making another bid to acquire US Steel, though at a lower price.

US Democratic Senate leader calls for fresh Israeli elections. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate majority leader, has called for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to step down and hold fresh elections. Schumer accused Netanyahu of being “too willing to tolerate the civilian toll” in Gaza, and of “pursue[ing] dangerous and inflammatory policies that test existing US standards for assistance”. In response, Israel’s ambassador to America said it was “unhelpful” to comment on “the domestic political scene of a democratic ally”.

Russians head to the polls. President Putin is running against token opposition in Russia’s tightly controlled presidential election, which runs for three days from today (Friday). There’s little doubt about who’ll win, though dissidents have urged Russians to show up en masse at the polls at noon on Sunday to display their discontent.

TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

We mentioned yesterday how the debate around TikTok looks like an early test of what it means to be a sovereign state in the 21st century.

Today’s briefing is a reminder that, while we grapple with these new-fangled tech challenges, we’re still also grappling with what it meant to be a sovereign state in the 20th century, as borders continue to blur behind a bewildering network of alliances, rivalries, dependencies, ambitions, and grievances.

Also worth noting:

• Turkey and Iraq just released a joint statement in which Iraq says it’s listing the PKK as a banned organisation for the first time.

• The US and Iraq are in talks about a potential withdrawal of the ~2,500 US troops still on Iraqi soil. 

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Every week, Lykeion sends out investment-grade research and insightful commentary on macro-trends and thematic analysis that focuses on the intersection of financial markets and geopolitics. Check out these recent pieces:

• Peak China and the Likelihood of War

• Uranium is Having a Moment 

And, for a limited time only, they're giving Intriguers 2 months free of Lykeion Plus: deep dive editorials, macro research, and thematic overviews, all at the intersection of financial markets and geopolitics.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇰🇷 South Korea: Seoul says it might ban the sale of certain equity-linked investments after an investigation found local banks misled folks about their risky nature. The complex China-linked products, which have recorded $4B in losses this year, have been popular among older Koreans grappling with limited pensions and rising living costs.

2. 🇫🇷 France: A Swedish think tank says France has now become the world’s second-largest arms exporter, with India its top customer. The US remains the top arms exporter, while Russia dropped from second to third place after its exports halved in a decade (partly due to reduced orders from India).

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: China’s foreign minister will next week make his first trip to Australia and New Zealand since 2017. China imposed restrictions on Australian exports in 2020 after ties frayed over multiple issues, but it’s now unwound limits on Australian coal, timber, and barley, with wine likely next.

4. 🇭🇹 Haiti: Local gang leader Jimmy ‘Barbecue’ Cherizier has issued an audio message threatening local politicians who are set to join a new transitional council. Separately, the UN has said it’s now establishing an aid airlift to Haiti, while the US Senate just voted to confirm career diplomat Dennis Hankins as ambassador to Haiti (the role was vacant for 2.5 years). 

5. 🇪🇬 Egypt: EU leader Ursula von der Leyen has pledged greater support for Egypt as Brussels pushes for a deal similar to the aid and migration pact signed last year with Tunisia. The EU sees both countries as key to halting irregular migration flows from North Africa to Europe.  

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Some weekend suggestions from Team Intrigue if you’re in 🇧🇷 Rio de Janeiro

• Eat: Swing by ‘Cafe Ao Leu’ for a legendary cup of specialty coffee.

• Activity: Hire a bike and cruise around the Lagoa (lagoon) Rodrigo de Freitas, with views of the famous Christ the Redeemer statue above.

• Visit: Check out Casa Roberto Marinho, which currently has a collaboration with several significant private art collections, all set in the neo-colonial residence of Brazil’s late media mogul.

DEAL OF THE DAY

French media outlet Le Monde and Spain’s Prisa Media have signed deals allowing US-based OpenAI to train ChatGPT with their content. The deal, which involves undisclosed payments by OpenAI, comes as the AI pioneer faces several lawsuits from news organisations accusing it of copyright violations. 

FRIDAY QUIZ

On this day in 44 BC, Roman dictator Julius Caesar was assassinated by his fellow senators. Today’s quiz is on famous historical deaths.