🌎 Canada hurtles towards a post-Trudeau world

Plus: Emblem of the day

January 07, 2025

IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ A post-Trudeau Canada?
2️⃣ A spicy gaffe in Uganda
3️⃣ Emblem of the day

Hi Intriguer. Folks might recall our ‘2024 in review’ edition just before the break featured a ‘flag of the year’, referring to the curious tale of Kyrgyzstan ever-so-slightly tweaking its flag (basically making the sun’s waves straighter).

Well, I was delighted to then hear from an Intriguer serving as a diplomat there, who kindly pointed out that we actually shared the wrong version of the new Kyrgyz flag! But plot twist: we’re in good company, because even the Kyrgyz government itself initially shared the wrong version of its own new flag. Kinda impressive, really.

The detail seems minor (the new version has four criss-crossing lines at the centre, not three). But the symbolism is beautiful: according to our esteemed Intriguer, if you’re ever lucky enough to sleep in a yurt on Lake Issyk-kul, the first thing you’ll see when waking in the morning is the sun pouring through the circular hole in the tent roof, causing the support beams to project that very same criss-cross pattern. Love it.

Anyway, enough day-dreaming. Let’s have a think about what Trudeau’s resignation now means for Canada and the world.

PS - Join us for a candid conversation on China with Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, Ranking Member of the Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the US and the Chinese Communist Party. It’ll be online, 10am ET on Tuesday 21 January. Register here!

THE HEADLINES

US Congress certifies Trump win. 
Vice-President Kamala Harris has presided over the certification process, which went off without a hitch.

US designates China’s Tencent as a military company.
The US has added Chinese gaming and social media giant Tencent (think WeChat) and battery maker CATL to a list of businesses it says cooperate with China’s military. Appearing on the Pentagon’s Section 1260H list doesn’t automatically ban a company or its products, but in practice it can raise pressure on the US Treasury to consider sanctions.

Indonesia joins BRICS.
The Southeast Asian powerhouse has officially become the tenth full member of the loose grouping of emerging economies, often projected as offering an alternative to Western-led multilateral organisations.

Nvidia CEO unveils new products.
Superstar CEO Jensen Huang has unveiled a slew of updates at this year’s Las Vegas CES (formerly the ‘Consumer Electronics Show’), including a next-gen gaming chip, a desktop PC, and a new partnership with Toyota on self-driving cars.

Macron accuses Musk of interfering in European politics.
The French president has joined Norwegian and British leaders in criticising the Tesla CEO and soon-to-be US official for his recent string of fiery tweets and political endorsements.

Dozens dead in Tibet earthquake. 
At least 90 people are dead after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck a remote region of Tibet close to China’s border with Nepal.

TOP STORY

Canada hurtles towards a post-Trudeau world

Walking down his front steps at Rideau Cottage yesterday (Monday), Justin Trudeau finally announced he’ll be stepping down as leader of his ruling Liberal Party and therefore as Canada’s prime minister, just as soon as his party chooses a replacement.

We say ‘finally’ because it was inevitable — much of his own party even wanted him out. So now, after a nine-year run and a stint as the world’s longest-sitting G7 leader, Trudeau has bid adieu, closing a political chapter that’s really defined Canada’s image abroad.

What happened?

By any definition, Trudeau was a certified ‘nepo-baby’ (his dad was a storied PM) who enjoyed a dazzling rise to power in 2015, pole-vaulting his Liberals into government from third place. But after starting out as a progressive hero to millions, the wheels soon started to wobble as the scandals accumulated: ‘ElbowGate’, Aga Khan, that India visit, blackface, WE Charity, Bohemian Rhapsody, you name it.

He returned from a Costa Rica vacation in January 2020 rocking a new beard, which many took as heralding a new Trudeau. But then Covid hit, and the data really started to speak for itself: by then, it already took an average income-earner three decades to save a deposit for a house in many cities, while Canadian incomes lagged well behind the US. For those and many other reasons, 73% of Canadians eventually just wanted him gone.

So what’s next? 

Rather than call an election, Trudeau has effectively hit pause on the current parliament until March 24th, giving his Liberals time to choose a new leader for the next elections which are due no later than October this year (likely sooner).

And who’s next? For Trudeau’s liberals, the various names in the mix include:

  • Chrystia Freeland, his former deputy PM, foreign and finance minister who spectacularly resigned last month (she hasn’t yet signalled her plans), and

  • Mark Carney, Canada’s highly regarded former central bank chief (and the godfather to Freeland’s son), who’s now quietly sounding out his party support.

But no matter who replaces Trudeau as party leader, the polls suggest it’s less a question of whether they then win the general election, and more about how badly they’ll lose to…

  • Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who’s enjoying a 24 point lead in the polls. That’s partly a rejection of Trudeau, but also partly because of Poilievre himself, merging an aspirational story (adopted out by his teen mother) with promises to unshackle Canada’s freedoms and thereby its economy.

And what does this all mean for the world?

Poilievre is promising to focus on everyday issues impacting Canadians, and that includes the prospect of US tariffs which threaten to disrupt most of Canada’s export base. So he’s promising he can negotiate with Trump to deliver “a great deal that will make both countries safer, richer, and stronger”.

More broadly, Poilievre has also promised more energy exports and more defence spending, paired with less foreign aid and less of what he’s described as Trudeau’s grandiosity. He’s also voiced full-throated support for Israel, and has vowed to withdraw Canada from the China-led Asian Infrastructure Development Bank.

As for India? Poilievre has been notably low-key in response to the extraordinary allegations that Delhi assassinated Canadian citizens on Canadian soil, instead simply pledging to restore ties if he’s PM.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Remember 2016? That’s when Trudeau attended his first G7, along with America’s pre-Trump Obama, Germany’s pre-malaise Merkel, and the UK’s pre-Brexit David Cameron, all hosted by Japan’s late Shinzo Abe. And if you must know, Justin Bieber held the top two spots on the US charts, with the rather cross-purposed ‘Love Yourself’ and ‘Sorry’.

Anyway, even after France’s 39-year-old Macron then yoinked the title as the G7’s youngest leader, Trudeau remained a summit superstar for a while. We saw it in person as he stopped with a smile when exuberant foreign officials asked for a selfie.

But we’ve since seen that summit stardom fade, partly due to sheer familiarity, but also partly as Trudeau’s approach grated more on capitals abroad: whether it was trade partners watching him almost tank the revived TPP trade pact; or allies watching him go slow on NATO commitments; or even his fans watching him send mixed messages by approving a major oil pipeline the day after declaring a national climate emergency.

Anyway, the world has changed radically since 2016, and Trudeau’s exit really feels to us like the end of an era that goes well beyond his own beautiful, snowy capital.

Also worth noting:

  • Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly is also being floated as a possible Liberal Party replacement.

  • Trump has named former US ambassador to the Netherlands, Pete Hoekstra, as his next envoy to Canada.

  • Canada is due to host the G7 in June.

TOGETHER WITH MASTERWORKS

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

  1. 🇹🇯 Tajikistan: Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian is set to visit Tajikistan later this month, seeing an ongoing opportunity to reduce Iran’s isolation on the global stage. The two countries share close cultural, linguistic, and economic ties, but fell into a decade-long spat including over allegations that Iran was assassinating prominent Tajik figures.

  2. 🇮🇹 Italy: Rome is reportedly in advanced talks with SpaceX for a $1.6B deal aimed at providing the government with encrypted internet and telephone lines. The deal has been under review since 2023, but has encountered opposition over the feared impacts on domestic carriers.  

  3. 🇲🇲 Myanmar: The ruling military junta has released some 6,000 prisoners as part of a mass amnesty event to mark the country’s independence day. But the gesture doesn’t appear to have included former democratically-elected leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

  4. 🇬🇹 Guatemala: Over 100 Guatemalan security personnel have now arrived in Haiti to supplement a Kenya-led and UN-authorised peacekeeping mission in the country, which remains overrun by armed gangs. A smaller contingent from neighbouring El Salvador also joined the mission in Haiti. 

  5. 🇺🇬 Uganda: The local military chief and son of long-time President Yoweri Museveni has retracted a statement indicating that he wanted to behead the country’s opposition leader. Widely seen as the heir apparent, Muhoozi Kainerugaba is known for his odd statements, including a threat to invade neighbouring Kenya and an offer to marry Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. 

EXTRA INTRIGUE

What the world’s been googling lately

EMBLEM OF THE DAY

The former royal Danish coat of arms (L) and its new version (R).

This year is starting out with a vexillological bang: the Danish king has just unveiled a revamped royal coat of arms, featuring some key differences (no, the buff semi-nude guys are still there). 

In its new version, the coat of arms features more prominently the ram (representing the Faroe Islands) and the polar bear (representing Greenland), while removing the three crowns (symbolising a centuries-long alliance between Denmark, Norway, and Sweden). 

Some are speculating the changes intend to highlight Denmark’s sovereignty over both autonomous regions above, amid Donald Trump’s continued references to buying Greenland.

DAILY POLL

Do you think Trudeau's party stands a chance at this year's elections?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Yesterday’s poll: Which Russo-Ukraine factor do you think will buckle first?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🪖 Russia's military (8%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 💸 Russia's economy (35%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🎖️ Ukraine's military (7%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇺🇦 Ukraine's political will (8%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🤝 Ukraine's Western support (39%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

  • 🤝 W.H: “It's unfortunately the most likely scenario given political uncertainties in Germany (new elections), France (unstable coalition), and the US (Trump factor).”

  • 💸 D.N: “Revolutions often happen because the wealthy are fed up with losing money or power. Putin is destroying huge chunks of established wealth and these people will be plotting his downfall.”

  • 🎖️ B.W: “At the end of the day Ukraine is already low on able bodies. Russia, while not in an ideal state, was always best positioned to outlast Ukraine in a war of attrition.”

  • ✍️ C.D: “This war has produced a lot of surprises, so predicting what will happen feels like betting against the house in Vegas."

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