IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ Will Turkeyโs arch-enemy lay down its arms?
2๏ธโฃ Whatโs going on with commodities
3๏ธโฃ Coat of arms of the day
Hi {{ First name | Intriguer }}. I was at the Australian embassy in DC last night, speaking alongside Australiaโs ambassador to the US (and former prime minister) Kevin Rudd for a fireside chat.
Weโll share a link to the recording when itโs ready, but for now Iโll pass on this nugget of wisdom from Rudd. When asked about his thoughts on the #vibes of the international order, he described his early years as a junior diplomat during the tail end of the Cold War, when the world faced multiple crises and looked uncertain. But fast forward just a few years โ that conflict ended and the Berlin Wall fell.
Why do I share this, dear Intriguer? Itโs to leave you with some sliver of optimism during these turbulent times. And with that, letโs dive into our top story today on a possible historic peace in Turkey.
THE HEADLINES
Trump halts military aid to Ukraine.
The US president has suspended all security assistance to Ukraine, days after Fridayโs disastrous meeting with Zelensky. Trump continues to pressure Ukraine (rather than its Russian occupiers) to make concessions in hopes of securing some kind of deal.
Canada and China retaliate as US tariffs hit.
New US tariffs kicked in today (Tuesday), including 25% on Canada and Mexico and another 20% on China. China is responding with additional 10-15% tariffs on US agriculture, while Canada has slapped 25% tariffs on an initial $30B worth of US goods, with another $125B to be hit if the US levies are still in place in 21 days. US and Asian stocks fell on the news. Mexico is expected to unveil its own response later today.
TSMC announces $100B investment in US.
The US president has announced the worldโs leading chipmaker (Taiwanโs TSMC) is pledging to invest $100B in US manufacturing over the next few years. Trump has been arguing lately that Taiwanโs chip success has been at Americaโs expense.
Austria gets a new leader.
After months of deadlock, Austria has finally sworn in a new three-party government. Christian Stocker, leader of the Conservative Peopleโs Party, has emerged as PM to govern alongside his centre-left and liberal coalition partners. The political manoeuvring is intended to keep the populist-right and Russia-friendly Freedom Party from power.
Arab states to present Gaza plan.
Several Arab states led by Egypt will present their proposal for Gazaโs post-war future today (Tuesday). An early draft suggests they might be proposing to replace Hamas with interim bodies jointly controlled by a steering board of Arab, Muslim, and Western states.
Japan battles biggest wildfire in decades.
Authorities have evacuated thousands as a wildfire โ dubbed Japanโs worst in half a century โ rages in the northeast.
TOP STORY
Did Turkey just make peace with its arch-enemy?
Thatโs Turkeyโs Erdogan (foreground) and the PKKโs รcalan (background)
Turkeyโs President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fresh off a string of diplomatic wins, just stepped up to the mic with a speech (๐น๐ท) leaving even the most diligent of listeners winded. From reminding Europe about Turkey's long-stalled EU bid, to lecturing Israel on its regional moves, Erdogan really had a spring in his step.
And thatโs no surprise given Erdogan might now be resolving Turkeyโs longest-running conflict: the Kurdish question.
Hereโs what you need to know.
Abdullah รcalan,ย the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK),ย issued an historic order last Thursday calling on the group he founded to disband and disarm.
Just to clarify the magnitude of this call โ the PKK has been fighting for what itโs variously described as more Kurdish autonomy for half a century, and รcalan himself has been jailed on Imrali Island (off Istanbul) over treason charges since 1999. Turkey and several of its allies (including the US) have long listed the PKK as a terrorist organisation.
And sure, รcalan has pushed for truces before, but this is the first time heโs explicitly called for the PKK to dissolve itself. Youโll forgive us for our ultra-flawed choice of analogy for illustrative purposes, but we wouldโve been less startled if Ronald McDonald disbanded the Golden Arches.
It all started in Octoberโฆ
Thatโs when one of Erdoganโs ultra-nationalist allies shook hands with pro-Kurdish lawmakers in parliament, and really set rumours running that something was up.
But then a PKK attack on an arms manufacturer in Ankara flipped the table at home, and Assadโs ouster in neighbouring Syria (with its own large Kurdish presence) flipped the table for the broader region. And yet somehow, quiet talks continued, with pro-Kurdish figures generating more headlines when they visited the jailed รcalan in January.
Then on Thursday, his emissaries emerged from another prison visit and read รcalanโs historic 1.5-page statement aloud, broadcast live across the country.ย His key points?
The PKK was born out of Turkeyโs initial โdenial of Kurdish realityโ, but Turkey has since taken democratic steps to address those grievances, and so
โAll groupsโ (possibly including PKK offshoots across the region) must dissolve.
So, why now?
Time: Ankara has hounded the group since the 80s, weakening a) its capabilities, b) its motivation, and therefore c) its ability to carve a Kurdish state out of Turkey
Pressure: Ankaraโs advanced drone and surveillance developments have isolated PKK cells in northern Iraqโs mountains, cutting off key supply routes, and
Alliances: While neighbouring Kurdish groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have enjoyed US backing against ISIS, recent US moves to pull back have limited a key source of international support for the Kurds.
So, will the PKK disband?
There are still generations of bad blood at play here, while Turkeyโs pressure has contributed to PKKโs splintering into factions that may not all now agree to disband. Meanwhile, itโs also unclear what exactly the PKK leaders get in return.
Andโฆ why does this matter to anyone else?
For Europeโฆ Intriguers will recall that when Sweden wanted to join NATO after Putinโs invasion of Ukraine, Erdogan tapped the brakes due to Sweden protecting certain Kurds.
But if these Turkish-Kurdish fundamentals improve, that source of leverage for Turkey could dry up, with Ankara instead focusing on supplying Europeโs defence ramp-up (in his same speech above, he described European security without Turkey as โunimaginableโ).
For Washingtonโฆ With the PKK potentially folding and the US-backed SDF weakened, Erdogan gets to rewrite the narrative. And while Europe and the US can grumble about his authoritarian vibes, theyโll still need him to run point in Syria, curb irregular immigration, and act as a bulwark against broader regional instability.
As for Erdogan himself?
Erdogan has kept a relatively low profile on this, letting his nationalist allies and state media do the heavy lifting. And of course, there are sceptics in both his and the PKKโs hardliner camps. But for now, Erdogan holds the cards, and might be on the cusp of achieving something his predecessors only dreamed of, while leaving behind a key source of criticism against Turkey generally and Erdogan specifically.
With all that at stake, itโs only a matter of time until Erdogan emerges to claim full credit.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
Of course, itโs not all Efes beer and baklava for Erdogan.
The Turkish lira keeps sliding, putting pressure on his popular support
Arguably Turkeyโs most popular journalist (Nevลin Mengรผ) just got slapped with a suspended jail sentence for merely interviewing a Kurdish leader, and
Abroad, Israel is pushing Syria to stop the Turks from building more bases.
And yet still, no one at home realistically dares to say anything. That all contributes to an information space where itโs hard to really tell how folks feel about this possible historic moment with the PKK, and whether itโll deliver the domestic win Erdogan wants.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
๐ฏ๐ต Japan: Judges on the International Court of Justice (ICJ) have elected their own Yuji Iwasawa (a citizen of Japan and former law professor) as the ICJโs new president. The appointment is just to complete the term of the courtโs former president Nawaf Salam, who left in January to become Lebanonโs prime minister.ย ย
๐ฌ๐ง UK: The British data protection watchdog has launched an investigation into whether TikTok misuses information on children to serve them up inappropriate or harmful personalised content. Authorities will also look into popular forum Reddit and image-sharing platform Imgur.ย ย
๐ฒ๐ฒ Myanmar: The head of Myanmarโs military junta is in Russia for an official visit including talks with Vladimir Putin. Russia has (along with China) long been a top arms supplier to Myanmar, and has moved to fill the diplomatic void since the West downgraded local ties following the juntaโs 2021 military coup.ย
๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico: The US Supreme Court is today (Tuesday) due to hear opening arguments as Mexico seeks $10B in damages from US gun manufacturers for the havoc caused by Mexican cartels using US weapons. The case has emerged as a bargaining chip between Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum, with Sheinbaum warning she could expand the suit.ย
๐จ๐ฉ DR Congo: President Felix Tshisekedi has seemingly taken a page out of his Ukrainian counterpartโs book, offering mineral deals to the US and EU in exchange for their intervention in the regionโs ongoing conflict. The DRC military has recently lost ground to the M23 rebel group backed by neighbouring Rwanda.
FROM OUR FRIENDS
How the Hollywood-China love affair went south
Face-Off: U.S. vs. China takes an inside look at the turbulent relationship between the worldโs two superpowers, the two men in charge, and the vital issues that affect us all. In this weekโs episode, host Jane Perlez describes the love affair between Hollywood and China, and how it went south. We love this podcast, and so will you.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Hereโs whatโs going on in commodities
Coal: The worldโs largest coal exporter, Indonesia, has moved to wrest pricing control back from independent agencies, triggering higher prices and frustration from Indonesiaโs largest buyer (China).
Listings: Torontoโs status as the worldโs top mining hub could be under threat, with insiders pointing to industry consolidation, tougher fundraising conditions, and tighter government rules on foreign investment.
Timber: Donald Trump has directed federal agencies to examine ways to source more timber locally, partly as a way to reduce US dependence on Canada (Americaโs top supplier) for whatโs a critical housing input.
Copper: Trumpโs commerce department is also investigating whether to slap tariffs on copper imports, citing familiar national security justifications.
Oil: Libyaโs state oil company has just announced its first oil and gas exploration tender since 2008.
COAT OF ARMS OF THE DAY
Weโre not sure whoโs more surprised, dear Intriguer: us or the salmon.ย
Featuring a startled-looking fish with antlers, the coat of arms of the Finnish municipality of Inari is definitely a conversation starter. Maybe bring it along on your next first date. The mythical-looking creature is a visual representation of the importance of both salmon fishing and reindeer herding in the very north of Finland, and weโre all for it.ย
Intrigueโs rating: 9.7/10.
DAILY POLL
Do you think Turkey's peace at home will bolster its standing abroad?
Yesterdayโs poll: What do you think about the Trump-Zelensky-Vance argument in the Oval Office?
๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ง Zelensky should've kept his cool and showed more respect -- his country depends on US support (15%)
๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ ๐ฎ Trump and Vance went too far on Zelensky, while still silent on Putin (79%)
โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (6%)
Your two cents:
๐ฎ A.S: โThis was clearly an ambush that Zelenskyy could not have avoided, not by wearing a suit, nor by acting more deferential. Trump wanted an excuse to justify cutting aid to Ukraine, painting Zelensky as ungrateful when he is anything but.โ
๐ง W.G: โOther leaders have sat in that chair through uncomfortable speeches by Trump (ie. King Abdullah). Zelensky should have learned from them, held his tongue, and gone back to Kyiv with a win.โ
โ๏ธ C.D.B: โLindsay Graham gave Zelensky good advice about how to handle that meeting, which he chose not to follow. Either he canโt read the room or feels he doesnโt have to, or he intentionally alienated the U.S. administration to galvanize support elsewhere.โ
โ๏ธ B.T: โThis was not a negotiationโit was an attempt to force Zelensky into accepting terms beneficial to the US but potentially fatal for Ukraine.โ
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