🌎 Trump’s ambassadorial line-up

Plus: Photo of the day

December 16, 2024

IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Trump’s ambassadorial line-up
2️⃣ When you shouldn’t smile in Czechia
3️⃣ Photo of the day

Hi Intriguer. Anyone who’s visited Dubai or Abu Dhabi will have noticed that if you’re a serious player in either town, there’s simply one car you’ve gotta have in your garage: the Nissan Patrol (an off-road SUV made in Japan).

Now, nothing against Nissan Patrols, but if I had absolute Scrooge McDuck quantities of cash like an Emirati royal, I might treat myself to something else. So what’s with the Patrol obsession? I asked a friend who served there, and apparently years ago some clever Japanese auto-executives gifted a whole fleet to the UAE royal family when first trying to crack the market. Once the royals started rolling around town in their shiny new Patrols, everyone else wanted one. And now it’s consistently a top-selling vehicle.

That old story came to mind today as an example of how individual decisions can have long (long!) tails in this world of ours. And today’s briefing leads with an update on dozens of them: Donald Trump’s ambassadorial line-up.

THE HEADLINES

Impeachment review against Yoon begins.
South Korean lawmakers successfully voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol on Saturday, a week after his brief flirtation with martial law. The country’s constitutional court now has six months to decide whether to remove Yoon from his post, with the prime minister (Han) acting as president in the meantime.

China’s demand slows unexpectedly.
Retail sales grew by 3% last month, down from October’s 4.8% and below 5% forecasts, highlighting Beijing’s persistent struggle with weak demand. Meanwhile, China’s property market is showing some semi-positive signs, with prices still dropping but at a slower rate, for the third straight month.

New Syrian leaders not looking for conflict with Israel.
HTS leader Mohammed al-Golani has condemned Israel’s airstrikes on ousted dictator Assad’s military assets, but says his priority is rebuilding a more united Syria rather than getting drawn into regional disputes. Ditto, Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu says he has no interest in a conflict with Syria, though he just announced plans to double the Israeli population in the Golan Heights (widely recognised as Syrian territory). Meanwhile, Israel has decided to close its embassy in Ireland citing “anti-Israel policies”.

UK officially joins Indo-Pacific trade pact.
Britain formally joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP for friends) on Sunday, becoming the group’s 12th member. It’s London’s biggest post-Brexit trade deal, though Brexit’s impact still dwarfs the CPTPP.

Alleged spy for China was close with British royalty.
An alleged spy for Beijing has lost an appeal against a UK decision to bar him from the country. The evidence presented in the case included the man’s close links to disgraced royal, Prince Andrew.

Deadly cyclone hits Mayotte.
Authorities fear hundreds could have died after the most powerful cyclone in 90 years hit the overseas French territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean. Paris has mobilised its military to help.

TOP STORY

Trump’s ambassadorial line-up

Trump has named investment banker Warren Stephens to head up the US embassy in London (pictured above).

The world now greeting Trump 2.0 is much messier than the one awaiting him back in 2017: more distracted allies, more volatile foes, and more lacklustre Marvel sequels.

So let's get you up to speed on what Trump's initial ambassadorial picks might mean for the next four years:

  1. 🇨🇳 China

Trump wants former senator for Georgia and CEO David Perdue in Beijing, a critical posting as US-China competition heats up. So what's Perdue like on China? Well, he's a mixed bag, which might be the point: his decades in business included stints in Hong Kong and Singapore helping US firms outsource to Asia. He also ran brands that sell into China. So he’s seen some of the upside from engagement with China.

But once he entered politics from 2014, Perdue styled himself as more of a hawk on China and even angered Beijing with a visit to Taiwan. And sure, he penned a warmer article back in 2019 citing "cooperation" with China as Washington's core goal, but just weeks ago he penned a lengthy piece describing the Communist Party's "new war" with the US.

So overall, Trump's message with Perdue seems to be that, without softening some of his even hawkier picks like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, he still wants some kind of pragmatic dialogue with China. Whether Beijing sees things that way is another story.

  1. 🌎 Latin America

With Rubio as his secretary of state and Trump's former ambassador to Mexico (Landau) as his deputy, Foggy Bottom will now have Spanish speakers with real Latin America experience at the helm. And that's won a few high-fives (including from Mexico's President Sheinbaum) given the region’s long-running claims of US indifference. But not everyone will like what Trump’s renewed attention brings — Rubio, for example, is a fierce critic of the region’s autocrats, and Central America will feel the heat over migration.

As for Mexico? Trump has picked former Green Beret and CIA veteran Ron Johnson. He was ambassador to El Salvador under Trump 1.0, and became a staunch backer of its effective (if controversial) tough-on-crime approach — but the US has much more at stake with Mexico, which in turn seems relieved it’s Johnson and not the hawkish Kari Lake.

  1. 🌍 Middle East

When it comes to the Middle East, Trump's initial picks really confirm what we already knew: he's avowedly pro-Israel, and that's clear whether in his choice for ambassador to Israel (former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee), ambassador to the UN (New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik), or his envoy for the region (real estate mogul and long-time golfing buddy, Steven Witkoff).

The bigger question is around who he’ll send to represent him with other key US partners and allies in the region — like the Saudis, Jordanians, Emiratis, and Qataris — who’ve already flagged doubts around US commitment.

  1. 🇪🇺 Europe

US presidents often save plum European postings for their donors and inner circle: many of these allied capitals are traditionally high-prestige and low-risk postings — an easy way to say thanks. But of course, Europe has changed — there's a war on its doorstep, indecision in its response, and wariness towards what Trump 2.0 might bring.

Against that backdrop, Trump has announced investment banker Warren Stephens for London; his own daughter's father-in-law (real estate mogul Charles Kushner) for Paris; and his son's ex-fiancée and former Fox personality Kimberly Guilfoyle for Athens.

The Brits look content with Stephens, seen as a serious player and an upgrade on Trump's last envoy (the billionaire co-owner of the New York Jets). But as for folks in Paris and Athens? Nnnnnnnnot so much. One senior Greek diplomat told us the decision to nominate Guilfoyle as ambassador suggested Greece and its neighbours won’t be a Trump priority; the diplomat assessed it could also be because Trump wants only a light touch there given his family’s business ventures in nearby Albania and Serbia. As for Paris, it's Kushner's colourful criminal convictions that've raised most eyebrows.

But in all three cases, locals are also noting that having an ambassador from Trump's inner circle is an opportunity for more access and influence over his decisions.

Anyway, there's a quick snapshot for you. We'll keep you posted on who else Trump sends to key allies, partners, and foes.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Leaving aside the above personalities for a moment, there’s a long-running political vs career appointees debate that basically boils down to presidents either wanting:

  • a) political appointees who'll focus on carrying out their electoral mandate, or

  • b) career appointees who'll bring relevant expertise and sharp advice.

Some have summarised that debate as essentially one of control vs competence. Good diplomats however — whether career or political — should really be able to tick both boxes. It really comes down to the individual, though yes, too many political parachutes can get demoralising for career diplomats over time.

But there's a broader issue at play, too: leaders will appoint more political ambassadors as they lose faith in their foreign services, whether for reasons of control, competence, or both. And that's something we're detecting across several capitals, not just DC.

Anyway, let’s end on a positive note, shall we? There’s one thing foreign capitals hate worse than getting sent an unorthodox US political appointee: getting sent nobody at all. And yet, it’s become increasingly common thanks to political gridlock in the US confirmation process, often ceding local influence to rivals like Russia and China as a result. So maybe, just maybe, with Senate margins not so tight under Trump 2.0, the US might not leave so many ambassadorial positions vacant.

Also worth noting:

  • The Foreign Service Act of 1980 requires that a) most ambassadors should be career diplomats; b) political appointments should be a rarity; and c) all appointees should be fully qualified. 25-35% of modern US ambassadors have been political appointees. Trump hit a new record of 45% during his first term.

  • Trump has also just announced his former ambassador to Berlin (Ric Grennell) as a new envoy for "special missions", including Venezuela and North Korea.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

  1. 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan: Ashgabat is imposing strict rules against New Year’s Eve celebrations, even requiring students to sign pledges to abstain from partying. It likely reflects the more austere vibes of President Berdimuhamedov, who’s taken a pretty restrained approach compared to his more extravagant father.

  2. 🇲🇩 Moldova: The local parliament has declared a state of energy emergency, warning that Moscow could cut gas supplies to its largest power plant. The plant is located in the country’s Transnistria region, which gets Russian gas and is held by Russian troops, leading to fears Moscow could weaponise supplies.

  3. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Indonesia’s new president (Prabowo) is set to pardon some 44,000 prisoners, ranging from Papua activists to those arrested on government defamation charges. The country’s law minister says the pardons will be given on humanitarian grounds and will help relieve the country’s overcrowded prisons.

  4. 🇧🇴 Bolivia: Bolivia held judicial elections yesterday (Sunday), the only country that holds ballots for all top judges (though campaigning is prohibited). Mexico is soon set to join Bolivia in that club, after the former president (AMLO) pushed through constitutional reforms despite mass protests.

  5. 🇲🇺 Mauritius: Authorities have issued an arrest warrant for the country’s former central bank governor on fraud allegations. The new prime minister (Ramgoolam) has accused the outgoing government of falsifying the country's GDP, budget deficit, and public debt figures for years.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Credits: Yasin Kaan, Navy Petty Officer 3rd Class, Turkish Naval Forces Command.

NATO has announced its 2024 Photo of the Year, chosen from among pics sent in from the French Alps, Norway’s Finnmark region, and even one from Sweden’s armed forces taken just minutes after Stockholm first joined the defensive alliance. The winning photo (above) shows Turkish naval units in the Neptune Strike amphibious assault exercises across Europe in late October, featuring 15,000 NATO personnel.

NATO HQ releases its top four favourites each year, and then leaves it up to the public to vote for the winner. The photos across the decades are really worth a look, featuring an opera house (2006), a naval sunset (1998), a situation room (1975), and more.

Last Thursday’s poll: If you had to debut your company on a stock exchange, which would you choose?
(listed in order of global IPO rankings) 

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇺🇸 USA (76%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇳 India (7%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇨🇳 China (2%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇭🇰 Hong Kong (1%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇦🇪 UAE (2%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇯🇵 Japan (2%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia (2%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇪🇸 Spain (5%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

  • 🇺🇸 C.C: “Stable government. Well-defined property rights. Established rule of law. Stable currency.”

  • ✍️ T.R: “I'm from Europe, and my company deals within the EU. DAX, LSE or Dublin would be a natural choice for me irrespective of geopolitics.

  • 🇺🇸  M.R: “Access to capital and favorable tax treatment to corporations.”

  • ✍️ P: “The ASX! Australia is insulated against long-term corrections due to the resource sector and skilled migration.”

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