Today’s briefing:
— Three high-stakes elections
— Dolce & Gabbana now just Dolce?
— A map app surprise
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Sometimes high-stakes elections might mean blowing $11B on ads and cramming a dozen cable channels with breathless anchors dissecting terms like “binders full of women”.
But they can also be like this Sunday’s intriguing votes hitting Hungary and Peru, offering me an excuse to open with two quick tales:
First, there’s a story about legendary Hungarian-US screenwriter Joe Eszterhas (Basic Instinct) trying to get a film made with Vaclav Havel, the famous dissident playwright who had just become Czech president in 1989. When the president found out the screenwriter was Hungarian, he couldn’t resist responding with this old joke: “If you ever see a Hungarian on the street, go up and slap him — he’ll know why.” Before you write me hate-mail or slap a Hungarian, the joke is an ode to Hungary’s famous resourcefulness that, sure, might bruise the odd ego, but it also comes with enough grace and humility that a random unprovoked street-slap later still gets met with ‘yeah ok, I probably deserved that’.
Second, it’s exactly a decade since I was in Lima working for the Peruvian government (a rare exchange between diplomatic services). To my surprise, Peru’s president at the time ended up honouring me with a medal, shortly before he was charged with corruption (a coincidence I swear), unleashing a decade of political volatility that still plays out today.
Anyway, both amazing places — visit some time, after reading today’s cracker briefing.
Jitters of the day
Claude Mythos
That’s AI pioneer Anthropic’s new cybersecurity tool, now available only to a handful of tech giants so they can patch all the vulnerabilities it’s found. The news has reportedly prompted Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Bessent to call an urgent meeting with Wall Street chiefs on the “systemic risks” ahead once bad actors get access to similar tech.
Elect this!
It’s April, which means about three years have passed since January 1st 2026.
And because we may or may not be binge-rewatching F.R.I.E.N.D.S eps to cope, we’ve used the F.R.I.E.N.D.S episodic style to label April’s three big elections, starting with…
The one where the US and Russia are on the same side: 🇭🇺 Hungary (Sunday)
Hungary (pop. 10 million) might not ordinarily dominate your front pages, but this election is different for three reasons:
First, the stakes: as a member of both NATO and the EU, this central European power can (and does) veto or slow-walk support for neighbouring Ukraine’s self-defence, or sanctions on Putin’s aggression, or calls like whether to let Finland and Sweden join NATO.
Second, the margin: after ~16 years in charge, Hungary’s Euro-and-NATO-sceptic populist, Viktor Orbán (62) is now polling a full 10 points behind the centre-right’s more EU-friendly Péter Magyar (45). This challenger is also Orbán’s own ex-protégé! Et tu, Péter?
Mix those stakes, margins, and egos together, and you get…
Third, the tactics: wow, where to start. Someone has tried a honeytrap against the resurgent Magyar, only to catch the telegenic bachelor on video with… *checks notes* his own ex-girlfriend? Nice try Vlad, but isn’t kompromat meant to be embarrassing?
Meanwhile, Western spooks have led the way, burning Putin’s preferred PM (Orbán) via a) an intercepted call between his foreign minister and the Kremlin, and even b) a leaked proposal by SVR (Putin’s CIA) to stage an assassination attempt and fire up Orbán’s base!
But history might show the most remarkable tactic has been all Orbán’s endorsements from sitting world leaders: traditionally a no-no, not just out of courtesy, but also common sense — how do you work with the winner if you backed their rival? But times have changed, and these kinds of endorsements (from fellow populists like Meloni, Bibi, Milei, JD Vance, and even Rob Schneider!) often signal more to a home base.
So… where’s the intrigue? If those polls are right (a massive ‘if’ these days), both Trump and Putin are now openly backing a guy who seems likely to lose power this Sunday.
Speaking of mindboggling elections, let’s take a quick look at…
The one with the dictator’s daughter: 🇵🇪 Peru (Sunday)
Peruvians are now due to elect their ninth president since 2018! That’s a higher cast turnover than Grey’s Anatomy, and if that weren’t enough, a record ~35 contenders will appear on Sunday’s ballot! Two obvious questions:
Why so much turnover? It’s about party fragmentation in a dysfunctional congress using impeachment to dominate a weak executive
Why so many candidates? It’s about a low barrier to entry + deep popular distrust, eroding traditional parties and fuelling outsider candidates
This vote will go to a 2nd round in June, but the head-turning top names include…
The conservative heiress Keiko Fujimori, pledging to recreate her divisive late father’s fast-growth, low-crime success (just without the crimes against humanity)
The comedian Carlos Alvarez who, citing Ukraine’s Zelensky as inspiration, hopes sheer name recognition can deliver a win for his centre-right platform, and…
The hotel tycoon and mayor Lopez Aliaga (nicknamed Porky!), pledging straight-talking results as ‘Peru’s Bolsonaro’ (just minus the coup attempt)
So… where’s the intrigue?
Based on polls (see epic caveat), one way or another, Peru seems likely to join the region’s broader trend via a conservative president pledging a pro-business, tough-on-crime, US-friendly way to stabilise. All front-runners are hoping it’s enough to attract investment back into the massive copper and silver deposits fuelling the global energy transition.
Then let’s wrap with…
The one where nothing changes: 🇩🇯 Djibouti (today!)
Ismail Omar Guelleh has been president since 1999, and he’ll be darned if he’s gonna let frivolous things like elections, civil liberties, or term limits change that. He’s effectively running unopposed, either because of a) his superior abilities, or b) his tight control?
Here’s the Intrigue: despite its small size, Djibouti has a welcoming spirit, hosting US, Chinese, French, Japanese, and Italian bases at the mouth of the strategic Red Sea. That’s one reason why few capitals will bother muttering about Guelleh’s latest inevitable win.
Intrigue’s Take
Here we’ve got three elections on three continents, but there are common themes if you squint hard enough: first, they’re all making waves beyond their borders because they each sit on a chokepoint in a deglobalizing world: whether it’s NATO/EU vetoes (Hungary), endless critical minerals (Peru), or the mouth of a major shipping lane (Djibouti).
Second, with those stakes, great-power meddling is no longer subtle: whether the outright endorsements and hacks in Hungary, a big scandal around secret foreign investor meetings in Peru, or (inversely) all the great-power silence around Djibouti’s non-election, it’s all because the prize (see point one above) is too valuable to leave to chance.
And… maybe combined, that’s all a reminder that in a fragmenting world, size is only one factor in national power, alongside quirky new players like location and leverage.
Sound even smarter:
India is currently also running a handful of major state elections, with results not due until next month.
Today’s briefing is presented by…
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — Ceasefire?
The two-week ceasefire is still technically holding between the US and Iran, though it looks fragile both on Israel-Hezbollah (where hits continue) and Hormuz (mostly at a standstill). But President Trump says he’s optimistic, amid reports he’s asked Israel to cool it, while reiterating his demands for Iran to reopen the Strait. (NBC)
Comment: As we explored yesterday, the sides are still far apart, making a sustainable long-term agreement still seem pretty tough to reach.
🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES — What’s mine is not yours.
The Philippine coastguard has opened its first dedicated district command on Thitu Island, which China still claims via its unlawful ‘nine-dash line’. (NBC)
Comment: As these two frenemies continue to harden their ‘mixed-use’ facilities on disputed islands, it’s a reminder that even as the energy crisis forces them to re-examine overlapping South China Sea oil and gas claims, any substantive rapprochement still feels far off.
🇰🇬 KYRGYZSTAN — All in favour.
In a Brussels courtroom, Kyrgyzstan’s Bakai Bank has won its high-stakes defamation case against a Poland/Belgium-based NGO that accused the bank of helping Russia evade Western sanctions. (The Times of Central Asia)
Comment: Zooming out beyond this specific bank, the Kyrgyz numbers are pretty damning — since EU sanctions blocked direct routes to Russia, ‘high-priority’ exports to Kyrgyzstan have soared 800%, while related ✌️Kyrgyz✌️ exports on to Russia have soared by a similar amount. So this court case isn’t about whether sanctions evasion is happening, but rather about backing any specific accusations with evidence.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE — An Orthodox pause?
Russia’s Putin has taken up Ukraine’s Zelensky on his offer to pause the fighting for 32 hours to observe Orthodox Easter this weekend. (Guardian)
Comment: Call us cynical, but this lets Putin play his ‘defender of civilisation’ card while buying time for his failing invasion and shifting blame when (not if) this pause breaks.
🇮🇩 INDONESIA — Bargains.
More Singaporeans are doing their shopping on Indonesia’s adjacent Batam Island to avoid price surges back home caused by the Iran war. But plot twist: the ferry between the two islands is having to cut back on routes amid soaring fuel prices caused by… yes, the Iran war. (The Straits Times)
Comment: It’s actually a neat little illustration of the way energy-driven stagflation eventually even eats its own loopholes.
🇻🇪 VENEZUELA — Welcome capitalism!
Venezuela’s legislature has approved changes that’ll allow private and foreign investment in the country’s vast mining resources. (AP)
Comment: Subject to promulgation (a formality at this point), it’s evidence of continued US-pushed liberalisation of the economy, though it’s still unclear whether even that’s enough for foreign capital, long spooked by Chavista politics.
🇹🇿 TANZANIA — Cutting back.
Tanzania’s authoritarian president (Hassan) has had to trim back her famously-long presidential convoy amid surging fuel prices, with her trailing entourage now forced to follow along in “small buses” to reduce costs. (BI Africa)
Extra Intrigue
In other worlds…
Fashion: Stefano Gabbana has resigned as chair of Dolce & Gabbana, as the Italian fashion house confronts losses amid fading interest in luxury goods.
Art: The UK has blocked US rapper Kanye West from entering the country to perform at a concert, citing his unhinged antisemitic outbursts.
Tech: Florida is launching an investigation into OpenAI as a national security risk, amid reports a deadly campus shooter used the chatbot to plan his attack.
Map of the day
Courtesy of Apple Maps!
Germans love to joke that Spain’s Mallorca is Deutschland’s 17th Bundesland (state), given five million Germans visit the Spanish island annually. Still, you can imagine the surprise when travellers recently opened Apple Maps only to see Mallorca’s famed ‘Playa de Palma’ had been renamed “Betrunkene”, the German word for “drunkards.”
It’s a fun prank via the app’s user submission function, but it also carries a couple of tongue-in-cheek political messages about both a) the type of tourists the area attracts, which actually is quite political for b) Spaniards already bristling at overtourism!
Politics 🤝 Jokes, you don’t have to tell us.
Friday Quiz
Test your knowledge of this week’s news!