Today’s briefing:
— The US-Iran ceasefire is almost done
— Bulgarians go to the polls (again)
— Pothole vs transport secretary
Sponsored by:
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Back in ~2018 I was diagnosed (by me) with early-onset mid-life crisis, and so was dutifully prescribed (by me) a therapy Porsche.
And lest you get any ideas, I was on a meagre diplomat salary so this thing was like 14th-hand and cost a fraction of a used Camry. But it ran. Boy did it run.
That’s my happy place right now — wind in my hair drowning out the existential bleating of a neglected 2001-era beast — as we chin-dive back into what — and I cannot stress this enough — is happening between the US and Iran.
Number of the day
557%
That’s how far tungsten prices have soared since February last year, when Beijing slapped export controls on the metal, famed for its ultra-high melting point. These and other attributes make it nearly irreplaceable across defence, tech, and space.
T-minus 72 hours?
We've had another big weekend of Iran confusion, so here are the four numbers you need to know, starting with…
3
That's how many days are left in this 14-day US-Iran ceasefire, which expires Wednesday night. So there's a bit at stake in the second round of talks purportedly due in Pakistan from tonight (Monday). But...
Iran's regime has flatly denied these talks are even happening, blaming DC's "excessive demands". And that might explain why...
Trump just hit ctrl-z on even sending VP Vance at all, instead leaving lower-ranked (in theory) envoys Witkoff and Kushner to jet over to Pakistan.
The regime didn't specify which specific US demands are excessive, though we've long flagged the two sides are in complete opposition over nukes, proxies, and Hormuz.
And speaking of Hormuz...
10
That's how many international vessels just tried to break through the regime’s Hormuz blockade over the weekend before pulling a rapid U-turn amid Iranian radio warnings, plus even live fire from two regime gunboats! Yes, the regime still has gunboats.
The next day (Sunday), a regime-linked cargo vessel tried to defy the US blockade — a US destroyer gave the Iranians six hours of warnings before blowing a hole through the engine room and deploying Marines to seize the bridge.
The end result of these duelling enforcements is that Hormuz traffic is now effectively back to zero.
How'd this happen?
8 hours
That was the gap between Iran's foreign minister tweeting Hormuz is open, and a regime naval unit then reportedly radioing that “the Strait of Hormuz is still closed — we will open it by the order of our leader Imam Khamenei, not by the tweets of some idiot."
Officials later claimed the 'idiot' referred to Trump, but the timing and parallel dunking on the FM's "poor judgment" make it realistically a reference to Iran’s own FM.
And we don't usually care about name-calling, other than in this instance, it hints at the regime's own spicy internal dynamics: playing hardball on the Pakistan talks, opening fire on Hormuz shipping, then publicly calling your own foreign minister an idiot, all hints at regime hardliners (like IRGC boss Ahmad Vahidi) now openly vying for control.
And we only care about that because it shapes a) what flexibility the regime is willing to show, and b) whether Iran’s negotiators can even guarantee compliance with any deal!
Maybe that's why...
~8%
That's how far US crude oil prices have spiked in recent hours (back around $90), as markets process the fact that…
So… here we are, back to where it all began. And yet a ceasefire, a “we're open” tweet, and a radio roast later, there are ~zero ships transiting Hormuz, and 72 hours left on the clock. From here, we either see another TACO, another vexed deal, or another war.
Intrigue’s Take
To file this all away as mere bluffing or tactics might be giving everyone too much credit. Rather, maybe this weekend's chaos just exposes the deal's underlying cracks:
Trump can't accept a nuclear-ambitious and Hormuz-controlling Iran then expect to survive November's mid-terms, and yet…
The mullahs can't cede their nuclear and Hormuz leverage then still expect to cling to power.
This partly all goes to goals — the regime entered this conflict with two low-hurdle goals: regime survival, and rival deterrence. With the regime still standing and global energy markets still bruised by the retaliation, both goals still seem intact.
As for DC's goals? They were clear at first (bomb Khamenei, anoint a Delcy), but not so clear now. And two parts of any realistic deal are worth understanding clearly:
There's talk of Iran ceding its highly-enriched uranium, but recall the Iranians could only build that stockpile because Trump ditched the JCPOA deal; and…
There's also talk of Iran re-opening Hormuz, but recall it was open until this war.
Our point? Absent regime collapse or some further US escalation (a third US carrier group is due to arrive within days), the US now needs to burn a chunk of any leverage just to get things back to where they were: with an open Hormuz and a regime negotiating the terms (not existence) of its nuclear program.
Today’s newsletter is sponsored by Mode Mobile
Apple’s Starlink Update Sparks Huge Earning Opportunity.
Apple just secretly added Starlink satellite support to iPhones through iOS 18.3.
One of the biggest potential winners? Mode Mobile.
Mode’s EarnPhone already reaches 490M+ users that have earned over $1B, and that’s before global satellite coverage. With SpaceX eliminating "dead zones," Mode's earning technology can now reach billions more in unbanked and rural populations worldwide.
Their global expansion is perfectly timed, and investors like you still have a chance to invest in their pre-IPO offering at $0.50/share.
With their recent 32,481% revenue growth and newly reserved Nasdaq ticker, Mode is one step closer to a potential IPO. Tap into a $1T opportunity — invest now at just $0.50/share and get up to 20% bonus.
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇧🇬 BULGARIA — Eurosceptic in the lead.
Former president (and ex-fighter pilot) Rumen Radev looks set to emerge victorious from yesterday’s parliamentary elections, Bulgaria’s eighth in five years! (Guardian)
Comment: The easy headline is that, just as Hungarians oust one Kremlin sympathiser, Bulgarians elect another. The more interesting line is that both railed against corruption and elite entrenchment, with foreign policy playing second fiddle. Still, given Bulgaria is both an EU and NATO member, Radev’s rise will make waves.
🇦🇪 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES — Currency swap.
The Emiratis have reportedly sought a currency swap line with the US Fed as a wartime financial lifeline, warning they might otherwise have to settle trades in China’s yuan if the war drags much longer. (WSJ $)
Comment: It’s hard to even conceive of a situation in which the oil-rich Emiratis would run short of dollars, so this is probably best understood as a signal of frustration at US actions and related costs in the Gulf.
🇯🇵 JAPAN — Aluminium shortages.
Japanese companies are scrambling to secure alternative aluminium supplies amid a Hormuz-induced shortage. Middle East aluminium accounts for ~70% of imports for Japan’s auto industry, which is now sounding the alarm. (Japan Times)
Comment: Btw, in breaking news, authorities have issued a tsunami warning after a 7.5 magnitude earthquake hit off the country's north-east. It’s the same seismic zone that produced Japan’s devastating 2011 quake — keep an eye on any disruption to Japan’s LNG import terminals in the area given energy supplies are already tight.
🇰🇵 NORTH KOREA — Missile bonanza.
The regime has launched another ballistic missile — we say ‘another’ because it’s the fourth such test in a month and the seventh since January. (CNBC)
Comment: Kim testing missiles is nothing new, but his launch rate is increasing — it might be an attempt to normalise his antics, exploit the Iran distraction, and rattle the sabre ahead of Donald Trump’s highly-anticipated visit to China next month.
🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA — Japanese warships.
Canberra has agreed to pay $7B for Japan’s first three upgraded Mogami-class stealth frigates, with plans to then build another eight Down Under. (Reuters)
Comment: This is a big deal: first, it’s Japan’s largest-ever postwar defence export (legalised in 2014), and second, it aims to modernise and expand Australia’s stretched surface fleet with a kind of swiss-army-knife of the seas.
🇨🇺 CUBA — International solidarity.
The leaders of Spain, Brazil, and Mexico have issued a joint statement voicing concern about the US fuel embargo on Cuba, while calling for a “sincere and respectful dialogue” with the Cuban regime. (Spain’s foreign ministry)
Comment: They issued the statement from a Global Progressive Mobilisation summit co-hosted by Spain’s Sanchez and Brazil’s Lula, and attended by other left-leaning leaders like Mexico’s Sheinbaum and South Africa’s Ramaphosa. The statement is a counter to recent right-leaning moves (eg from Quito, San Jose) to sever Cuba ties.
🇳🇬 NIGERIA — Defence agreement.
Turkey has signed a deal to help Nigeria subdue a long-running jihadi insurgency, training 200 Nigerian special forces and collaborating on military tech. (New Arab)
Comment: Turkey is snapping up defence deals like Pokémon thanks to its high-performance drones, plus its positioning as a third way amid East-West competition for influence across the continent.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news…
A massive pothole has wrecked the British transport secretary’s car.
There’s now a site where you can pretend to be an AI chatbot.
Californian cops have arrested someone for replacing $30k of Lego with pasta.
A Chinese carmaker has patented an in-vehicle toilet.
And a cruise ship has surprised its passengers with a last-minute switch to visit Canada instead of Bermuda.
Workout of the day
Credits: Twitter / Anna Felicia Bajo / GMA News Online
If there’s one thing world leaders have taught us lately, it’s that exercise isn’t just good for your health, it’s also good for your image: whether it’s Brazil’s Lula live-streaming his pipes, or Finland’s Stubb lacing up for some ice hockey with Canada’s Carney, it’s game on.
But c’mon presidents, you’ve got to dress the part! Just look at Manila’s Marcos Jr, who tried to dispel health rumours with a short jog plus a set of half-assed jumping jacks. He challenged anyone to “come and exercise” with him, but it didn’t quite carry the same punch rocking polished dress shoes and a full barong tagalog (traditional dress shirt).
Today’s poll
What do you think is most likely before this US-Iran ceasefire expires Wednesday night?
Thursday’s poll: Do you think more firms will follow Allbird's hard pivot to AI?
👍 Yep, it's where the future is headed (46%)
🤷♂️ Nope, it makes no sense (51%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
🤷♂️ T.S: “Maybe it'll work in the long run, but in the short and medium term it’s a highly volatile strategy with little payoff. Not to mention a betrayal of Allbird's core mission.”
👍 A.N: “More companies will pivot. But that does not mean more companies will succeed in said pivot.”