Today’s briefing:
— The truth about Flight FZ1073
— So Iran was behind the Fairford plot?
— How to score a date in Singapore
Your Insider’s briefing:
— The truth about Flight FZ1073
— So Iran was behind the Fairford plot?
— How to score a date in Singapore
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Today’s briefing gets you the latest on this wild FlyDubai story, but every tale has a detail you just couldn’t make up.
Today’s comes from a plumber called Yaniv Hayoun, who just described to Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu how he helped rush the cockpit and pull the flight back out of its dive. Asked how he knew what to do, Yaniv referred to a documentary on The History Channel: “I watch Air Crash Investigations, Mr Prime Minister.”
As if that weren’t enough, a Tel Aviv professor then chimed in with this classically wry line: “180 people were saved because there is nothing to see on Israeli TV.”
So with that light (and much-needed) palate-cleanser out of the way, let’s dive in?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
PS — 🇧🇷 Intrigued by Brazil’s high-stakes elections this Sunday? Our Insiders will soon get an exclusive briefing from the award-winning Gustavo Ribeiro. He’s co-founder of The Brazilian Report, the insider view on Brazilian politics, business, and society, twice awarded Best Newsletter of the Americas. So become an Insider now!
PPS — Heads-up this is our last briefing for the week, but we’ll be back Monday!
Number of the day
8%
That’s now the percentage of air freight entering the US from Asia that’s purely components for data centers, according to Flexport’s Ryan Petersen.
Hijack averted.
What started out as a routine FlyDubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv quickly devolved into a nightmare near Jordan, as the Boeing 737, carrying 180 souls, plunged 14,000 feet in under 30 seconds — wild enough to rip its tail rudder.
The jet then stabilised and sent out a ‘squawk 7700’ emergency, followed by a ‘7500 ’ signalling ‘unlawful interference’ (which can mean a hijacking). Less than an hour later, it returned to its less spicy ‘7700’ before making an emergency Saudi landing.
So what — and we cannot stress this enough — is going on?
Thanks to the startled passengers gradually sharing their ordeal, we ‘know’…
The unnamed Omani co-pilot, a new hire, brandished an axe/knife, stabbed the Indian captain (Smit Machchhar), grabbed the controls, and started the plunge
The wounded captain managed to unlock the cockpit door and call for help, and
A mix of off-duty aircrew and passengers then tackled the attacking co-pilot, choked him out, and bound his hands with headphone wires!
Off-duty pilots then stabilised and landed the flight, with an apparent assist from the plumber who says he religiously watches air crash documentaries!
Down on the ground, the Saudis arrested — and are still interviewing — the Omani co-pilot, and are urging patience.
In the meantime… why’d he do it?
While Reuters initially quoted Israeli security officials downplaying this incident as “something else”, the lead theory quickly became terrorism: that’s the cold arithmetic of adding the target (an Israel-bound jet with ~160 Jewish passengers), the method (a stabbing), the location (right on the doorstep of Israeli airspace), the timing (amid a surge of shootings, stabbings, and arson against Jewish targets worldwide), and the history (Palestinian-linked groups have hijacked or attacked airliners ~28 times since 1968, though the last was in 1996, and not kamikaze-style).
Now, we say that’s the lead theory because, pending any pilot confession or Saudi confirmation, the other plausible theory is murder-suicide. That’s rare, though not as rare as you might think: in fact, a Bloomberg investigation found it caused ~18% of aviation deaths in Western-built jets between 2011 and 2020!
But keep in mind those stats are warped both by a) a low denominator (aviation deaths are rare), and b) three mass-casualty numerators: 2013’s deliberate LAM Mozambique crash into Namibia, 2014’s mysterious MH370 disappearance, and 2015’s deliberate Germanwings crash into the Alps.
Plus the facts (if not yet the formal conclusions) are increasingly pointing to at least another two examples over the past four years: 2022’s China Eastern crash in Guangxi, and maybe Air India’s 2025 crash near Ahmedabad.
Throw in the fact aviation gurus like Dr Alejandra Gentil were already warning about the operational and mental pressure on non-unionised Gulf crews, and maybe the guy snapped? That could also fit with the fact he didn’t seem to be targeting any particular building (though the Israeli passengers alone could’ve been the target).
Or… this could also be a combo of both theories: a radicalised pilot snapped?
But while we await clearer answers on the above, the regional ripples are already, um, rippling — as we’ll explore below.
Intrigue’s Take
While investigators in Tabuk, Dubai, and Tel Aviv piece together the pilot’s state of mind, the geopolitical fallout isn’t waiting for a formal report. Here are the five big dynamics to track, starting with…
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Intrigue’s Take
While investigators in Tabuk, Dubai, and Tel Aviv piece together the pilot’s state of mind, the geopolitical fallout isn’t waiting for a formal report. Here are the five big dynamics to track, starting with…
First, Israel’s hardline defence minister (Katz) has described the incident as a foiled jihadi attack, while Prime Minister Netanyahu blames "fanaticism", but adds it’s "too early to say" who or what was behind the attack. In the meantime, it’s a pre-election boost for their surrounded by enemies message, rallying their base.
Second, this incident risks quiet but severe strain on the Abraham Accords between Israel and the Emiratis: recall this is a state-owned Emirati airline, meant to be a foundational pillar of post-Abraham normalisation (direct flights), instead potentially being used as a weapon against Israelis. That possibility might explain why the Emiratis are being very cautious in their initial statements, and have now quickly approved a Shin Bet intel visit to inspect Dubai airport’s security protocols.
Third, it’s forcing some awkward choreography between Israel and the Saudis, who (like many others in the region) don’t actually recognise the state of Israel. For now, the footage of Saudi medicos treating Israeli passengers is giving hopeful humanist vibes, but that’s wobbling amid reports the Saudis rejected Israel’s request to collect the passengers (FlyDubai soon ended up collecting them instead) — it’ll wobble more if the Israelis and Saudis end up disagreeing on the pilot’s plot.
Fourth, the heroic captain’s Indian nationality is already playing out as a dramatic, real-world manifestation of the Bibi-Modi bromance and broader Israel-India alignment. Conversely, the attacker’s Omani nationality risks wobbling the sultanate’s long, quiet role as a trusted regional mediator, though that risk fades if it turns out the pilot was a lone-wolf or not even radicalised.
And fifth, there’s the broader possible risk to the Gulf’s entire aviation business model, which rests on seamless connectivity and elite safety — hard to square with this seeming failure in pilot vetting. Though again, that risk fades if this ends up looking more like a Germanwings 2.0.
All taken together, this whole wild incident is — at the very least — already shaping up as a reminder how fragile the region’s post-Abraham security architecture has become.
Sound even smarter:
FlyDubai has announced it’s temporarily halting flights to and from Israel.
Dr Alejandra Gentil is one of several aviation gurus we’re fortunate to have in the Intrigue group-chat. Become an Insider and join the conversation.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — Losing its grip?
We flagged yesterday the degree to which the Middle East’s oil exports have now bounced back to 80%+ of their pre-war average, but the plot has now thickened further: Iran’s own exports out of Hormuz are now near zero. (OilPrice.com)
Comment: That combo (Iran down, others up) paints a compelling picture that Iran’s grip over Hormuz might be weakening, not to mention the resulting pressure on its own oil-dependent economy and regime apparatus. If Tehran can no longer choke the world’s crude, it loses its primary bargaining chip. Way too early to declare where this ends, but watch for any shift in IRGC bravado.
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — The Fairford plot thickens.
PM Burnham now says there are “strong indications” Iran played a part in Sunday’s strange security incident near a Fairford airbase, used by US heavy bombers against Iran. (CNBC)
Comment: It’s shaping up like the Sydney-style IRGC operation we flagged yesterday — ie maybe Iran was using an encrypted app to recruit local crims, and pay them some crypto to carry out arson or some other intimidation tactic. These cut-outs often don’t realise they’re working for Iran — such a realisation might explain why one of them apparently called in a tip-off. While we’re with Burnham in the UK, he’s now enjoying a polling bump after a landmark speech pledging water renationalisation, deep housing reform, and — in a huge political gamble — ending London’s sacred ‘triple lock’ designed to preserve the pension’s real value. Brits can evaluate each idea, but we at least applaud the rare sight of a British leader ditching the “we-can-muddle-through-business-as-usual” status quo.
🇧🇷 BRAZIL — Quit yer meddlin’.
Brazil’s ‘Abin’ intelligence agency has reportedly briefed French and German diplomats that both Russia and the US (!) are actively attempting to interfere in Brazil’s high-stakes, neck-and-neck elections this Sunday. (Reuters)
Comment: Aside from the grim optics of being lumped together with a despot like Putin, plus the sheer plausibility (POTUS has openly and actively backed the conservative challenger, Bolsonaro Jr), it’s worth asking who might’ve leaked this, why, and why *now*. The likely answer is Abin itself leaked it — the story further frames Bolsonaro as the favoured candidate of foreign actors, and rallies nationalist and non-aligned voters in a nation with deep memories of US support for the 1964 military coup.
🇨🇱 CHILE — Triple threat?
JPMorgan’s commodities desk has issued a blunt warning that the world’s copper supply now faces a “triple threat” via “diesel availability in South America, El Niño weather risks, and Chilean strike potential.” (GoldFix)
Comment: The world’s mining giants can absorb higher operational costs at current prices, but for the wider market, JPMorgan’s warning comes right as copper prices already hover near historic highs, while energy-transition supply chains already grapple with paper-thin margins.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Inland airbase?
China’s military has opened a new logistics and support base at an airport in Laos, insisting it’s a jointly-run facility that’s “not directed against any third party”. (The Diplomat)
Comment: Expanding air logistics into landlocked Laos gives the PLA a new foothold in continental Southeast Asia, potentially diluting its reliance on maritime chokepoints like the Malacca Strait. It’ll generate more quiet unease for frenemy Vietnam, now squeezed by PLA bases in Laos, Cambodia, and the South China Sea.
🇸🇴 SOMALIA — Siege in Baidoa.
Heavy urban fighting and mortar fire has erupted across southern Somalia’s heartland city of Baidoa, as Somali federal forces try to hold the city against fighters loyal to an ousted regional leader — Mogadishu claims local Islamist group Al-Shabaab has joined the assault on Baidoa. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: Al-Shabaab has been trying to strangle Baidoa (a humanitarian hub hosting ~800,000 displaced) since as far back as 2008, even seizing the city for three years until federal troops ousted them. This latest siege seems more nakedly political, with opposition groups penetrating urban centres and potentially cracking the entire African Union-backed security transition.
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — Baltic standoff.
NATO has condemned Moscow’s latest “irresponsible nuclear rhetoric” after a Kremlin non-paper threatened to use its “entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons” against NATO if it ever blockades Putin’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad (an idea that emerged via British media). (Japan Times)
Comment: Putin is so touchy about Kaliningrad not just because it’s his only ice-free naval base on the Baltic, but also because it exposes his own perverse logic — it was ~German turf for 700 years before Stalin yoinked it in 1945. The Baltic neighbours and US allies, however, are touchy because by Putin’s same perverse logic, he’s more likely to try consolidating his hold over the enclave by seizing the Suwalki Corridor*, than returning what by his own Crimea/Donbas logic is really Germany’s own “primordial historical lands”. (*Suwalki is the 100km stretch along the Poland-Lithuania border between Kaliningrad and Putin-loyal Belarus, and provides the only Baltic land link to the rest of NATO)
Extra Intrigue
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
Quantum: IBM’s Nighthawk r2 just completed in 19 seconds a benchmark task that’d ordinarily take the world’s fastest classical supercomputers 110 years.
Art: Visionary artist and filmmaker Sir John Akomfrah is showing his multi-screen immersive Arcadia installation at London’s Natural History Museum, exploring the historic trade routes of global commodities, microbes, and ideas.
The environment: Olive ridley sea turtles have successfully nested on Southern California beaches for the first time in recorded history, an expansion biologists are attributing to sustained warming in coastal ocean temperatures.
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Swipe of the day
From the official website.
Like most other wealthy nations, Singapore is battling a historic drop in fertility.
But unlike most others, Singapore's government just launched a dating app to help! Called FirstDate, aspiring lovebirds (for now, public workers only) fill out a detailed questionnaire on values, habits, and deal-breakers.
Singapore's tech agency then verifies that via the Singpass national digital platform to filter out any scammers, bots, or (ahem) married people posing as singles.
It then runs the profiles through the Gale-Shapley algorithm, the mathematical matchmaking formula supposedly so good, it won a 2012 Nobel Prize!
Proposed matches (only one at a time, btw) then get 72 hours to accept, complete "Date Quests" to break the ice, or use free meal vouchers to try new restaurants.
Because nothing says steamy Singaporean love quite like two civil servants optimizing key performance indicators over state-subsidized chicken rice.
But hey, if a Nobel-winning economic algorithm finally gets folks to stop ghosting, who are we to judge?
Today’s poll
What do you think happened on flight FZ1073?
Yesterday’s poll: How do you think South Korea should respond to this DMZ incident?
😎 Let it go, not worth the escalation (27%)
🔥 Impose costs, or Kim will do it again (72%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)
Your two cents:
🔥 I.H: “SK already has an unreliable ally. It isn't worth giving the DPRK more uncertainty about pushback if they just goose-stepped across the border.”
😎 B.P: “The DPRK has a long history of escalation.”
✍️ E.C: “ The notion that 'payback' will modify Kim's behavior is laughable.”