1️⃣ The latest COP’s 3 key takeaways | 2️⃣ The hamburglar hits Spain | 3️⃣ Snafu of the day |
Hi Intriguer. After some serious will-he-or-won’t-he vibes, Donald Trump has named Wall Street titan Scott Bessent as his treasury secretary. And that oozes international intrigue, not just because of the starring role any US treasury secretary now plays in US diplomacy (particularly with China), but also because of Bessent himself.
He started out working for a billionaire Saudi family, then engineered a huge (and profitable) bet against the British pound in 1992. But the trade that really put him on the map? That’d be the same 2013 bet that saw him dubbed “the man who broke the Bank of Japan”.
For his part, Bessent says he was merely betting that the late Shinzo Abe would do exactly what he was promising to do in his second stint as prime minister: radically transform Japan’s trajectory. But however you want to dub it, Bessent’s trade was a wild ride he’s written about, all culminating in a monthly Tokyo-NYC shuttle (and a few billion dollars in profit) as Tokyo and its citizens sought to reinvigorate a nation.
Anyway, there’s also some juicy drama out of Baku we need to catch you up on, so let’s charge right on ahead.
PS - We’ll take a quick break this Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving, but will be back in your inbox from Monday!
Pro-Russia candidate takes surprise lead in Romania.
Hard right dark-horse candidate Calin Georgescu, who has promised to reduce Romania’s reliance on exports and criticised both the EU and NATO, has now taken an unexpected lead in Romania’s presidential elections. He’s now set to face centre-left Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu in the runoff election on December 8.
Hezbollah and Israel trade barrages.
Hezbollah launched a reported ~250 rockets and other projectiles into Israel yesterday (Sunday), wounding at least seven people. The attack came a day after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed at least 29 people, according to Lebanese authorities. As hostilities intensify, reports continue to emerge of a possible US-brokered ceasefire.
Ukraine retains 800 sq km of Kursk land.
The Ukrainian military still controls around 60% of the ~1,300km it seized in Russia’s Kursk province in August, according to a senior Ukrainian source quoted by Reuters. Putin likely wants to wrest back control before any negotiations kick off under Trump 2.0. Meanwhile, the Russians continue to make grinding gains in Ukraine’s east.
Opposition candidate wins in Uruguay.
Uruguayans have continued the worldwide trend against incumbents, with left-leaning opposition figure Yamandu Orsi winning a runoff election for the presidency. Along the way, Uruguay has won plaudits for the refreshingly peaceful and unifying process.
Authorities investigate death of Israeli-Moldovan rabbi in UAE.
Emirati authorities have arrested three people they say are connected to the death of Zvi Kogan, a rabbi Israel says was abducted and murdered in the UAE, where he lived. Israeli authorities branded his death an “antisemitic terrorist attack”.
DHL cargo plane crashes in Lithuania.
Just hours ago, a DHL-chartered flight crashed into a house as it made its approach to land in Lithuania’s capital of Vilnius, killing one person and injuring three others onboard. The incident comes weeks after Lithuanian police arrested a suspect over an alleged Russian plot to send incendiary devices to the West via DHL — a local spokesperson is saying there’s nothing to suggest an explosion preceded today’s crash.
TOGETHER WITH CAP PLASTIC NOW
Negotiators will gather in Busan, Korea this week for INC-5, the final round of talks for a Global Plastics Treaty. Plastic has been found in the furthest reaches of our planet and there is mounting evidence that plastics are harming human health. Arguably the most contentious issue is whether countries should be forced to reduce plastic production. Ambitious states want drastic cuts, while petrostates are firmly opposed. It promises to be another gruelling fight at the end of a long negotiation season.
This year’s COP logo in front of the Baku skyline.
Just before the sun began to rise over Baku yesterday morning (Sunday), nearly 200 countries finally 'agreed' on a deal to wrap this year's rather shouty COP climate talks. And even that single introductory sentence needs a quick glossary:
The deal arrived 'finally', because the summit was due to end ~30 hours earlier
The sassy air quotes around ✌️agreed✌️ are because major players like India and Nigeria say they never even got a chance to speak on the final draft, and
It was all rather 'shouty' because this Cop was marked by boycotts, walk-outs, boos, near-collapse, and our personal favourite: passive-aggressive coughing.
So what was all the drama about? Climate talks can seem dull at times, so we hereby present to you the three key issues from Baku, structured (because why not) via some choice Tom Cruise quotes:
"Help me, help you" - Jerry Maguire (1996)
The biggest argument this Cop was around a New Collective Quantified Goal, to replace the 2009 pledge rich countries made to put $100B each year towards helping poorer countries cut their emissions (by building out more clean energy, for example). That pledge is already due to expire next year, so the debate in Baku? What comes next:
Poorer countries wanted to quintuple the last deal to $500B per year or more, citing research that the full scale of the task needs at least $1T each year
But richer players said this wasn't realistic given everything going on (debt, deficit, wars, etc), plus major players like China and the Saudis had to chip in, too.
The result? Negotiators agreed on “at least” $300B per year by 2035, and they only got that over the line by a) adding the words "at least" (to keep poorer countries happy), while also b) skipping key details (like who pays what) to keep the richer countries happy.
That's a tripling of current arrangements, but many developing and island nations aren't happy. The final text also includes a loose call to raise $1.3T each year by 2035, though it's vague on where the cash comes from (everything from loans to investments).
"Max, I do this for a living" - Collateral (2002)
You might recall last year's COP talks in the UAE made history when the world committed to "transition away" from coal, oil and gas. This year, the idea was to flesh out that commitment a little more.
But the result? The final text barely makes the meekest reference to last year's pledge, and with absolute Swiss levels of neutrality. What happened? The Saudis are the world's top oil exporters, so they were peeved about last year, which also happened to be hosted by their key regional rivals, the Emiratis. So this year, the Saudis blocked any real reference to the 2023 deal. As finicky as this seems, it matters: a year after pledging to “transition away” from fossil fuels, the world (via Riyadh) has now seemingly pretended it never happened.
"Mission accomplished" - Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol (2011)
There’s far too much punctuation and self-referentiality in a single 2000s-era movie reference here, but it’s necessary for what was arguably the biggest success of this Cop, from way back on day one: countries finalised Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. But… didn't countries sign the Paris Agreement a decade ago, you ask? Yes. But they couldn't agree on some details, including around carbon markets, which basically allow firms to keep polluting if they buy permits that then help finance other green projects:
Critics have long argued carbon markets have been too opaque and full of loopholes, allowing dirty corporates to greenwash themselves, but
Advocates say they offer a debt-free way to finance the world's mass transition to green energy.
Article 6 was meant to resolve this debate by agreeing on some basic carbon market rules, but negotiations kept stalling. So the Azerbaijanis rammed a final text through on day one, meaning the Paris Agreement is now fully agreed, just a casual decade or so after the world first signed it.
So to conclude? Don’t let any of this get you down, dear Intriguer. As Tom Cruise says in Vanilla Sky (2001), “every passing minute is another chance to turn it all around.”
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
This has all played out in a year that’s already been historic for a few reasons:
First, researchers say we're now on track for our hottest year on record, with a global average temperature of 1.54C above the pre-industrial baseline. That means we should expect more of what we’ve already seen this year, whether it’s Spain’s worst-in-memory floods, Latin America’s worst-ever drought, or beyond.
But second, our world is also on track to exceed $2T in total clean energy investment for the first time ever. That's two thirds of all energy investment, and it's largely happening because it just makes sense (though big Cop pledges also send a meaningful signal for investors to keep going), and
Third, there’s also the return of a Cop-sceptic Donald Trump to the White House, which, yes, has nudged some major players to tap the brakes this Cop. But others (like the EU, Norway, Mexico, and beyond) have responded by committing to new emissions cuts in an effort to fill any US leadership void. And interestingly, some poorer countries even seem to have eventually accepted this Cop’s final ‘take it or leave it’ deal, precisely because they were persuaded that these talks will only get tougher under Trump 2.0.
Also worth noting:
Next year's COP host is Brazil.
For 2026 hosting duties, there's still a duel between Australia (together with Pacific Island nations) and Turkey. Australia argues it's time for a change, given four out of the last five Cops have been in the Middle East / Central Asia, and 23 out of all 29 have been in the northern hemisphere. Turkey agrees it's time for a change, but says Australia would add to the string of Cop hosts doubling as major fossil fuel exporters (after Egypt, the UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil).
🇹🇼 Taiwan: The office of President Lai Ching-te has announced he’ll soon travel to Marshall Islands (pop 40,000), Palau (pop 18,000), and Tuvalu (pop 10,000), Taiwan’s three remaining diplomatic allies in the Pacific. Taiwanese presidents often use these visits to make ‘unofficial’ stopovers in the US, though there’s no official word on a US leg, nor any inevitable angry response from China.
🇩🇪 Germany: It’s semi-official — Chancellor Olaf Scholz will lead his Social Democratic Party in February’s election now that his more popular defence minister (Boris Pistorius) has made clear he’s not throwing his hat in the ring. Scholz is due to lay out his plans before his party faithful this weekend, before a party convention gathers on January 11 to approve his candidacy.
🇵🇭 Philippines: The drama of Philippine politics continues, with Vice-President Sara Duterte declaring she’s instructed someone to assassinate the president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, in the event of her own assassination. Duterte and Marcos (both the children of former leaders) were initially allies, but are now in a wide-ranging family feud that’s exacerbating divisions in the key archipelago.
🇳🇮 Nicaragua: President Daniel Ortega has proposed more constitutional changes to further entrench his family’s grip on Nicaragua, after a court stacked with loyalists loosened term limits 15 years ago. His proposed amendments include elevating his wife as co-president (she’s already the power behind the throne) and extending presidential terms from five to six years.
🇲🇦 Morocco: China’s leader Xi Jinping made a brief visit to Morocco last week on his way home from the G20 in Brazil, in a stopover that wasn’t pre-announced by China’s state media. Reflecting Xi’s efforts to boost China’s influence, the visit also comes as China seeks to establish a battery supply chain through Morocco (which has trade deals with both the US and the EU).
Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan has sold an artwork consisting of a banana stuck to a wall for a cool $6.2M.
A tiny AI robot has seemingly “kidnapped” 12 larger robots from a Shanghai showroom after convincing them to follow it outside.
British authorities have fined a UK man $250 after neighbours complained his noisy pet cockerel was waking everyone up with its squawking.
A church in Switzerland is using an AI Jesus to help answer its congregation’s faith questions.
And thieves have stolen 400 legs of festive ham worth an estimated $210k from gourmet suppliers in Spain’s tiny mountain village of Corteconcepción.
A USS Virginia class submarine. Credits: the US Navy.
Imagine the tale these Norwegian fishermen told once they hit the pub after work: earlier this month, a small Norwegian fishing crew managed to catch a 115-metre (377-foot), 7,800-ton US nuclear-powered submarine in their nets.
These types of incidents are unusual but not unheard of. The secrecy surrounding submarines and their missions means fishing fleets tend not to get a heads-up…
What do you think this latest Cop climate outcome means? |
Thursday’s poll: Which of the following cultural exports is the most powerful?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🎤 Music (32%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🎥 Movies (44%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📕 Literature (11%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🎭 Theatre (2%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🎨 Art (3%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👚 Fashion (5%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (Write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
🎥 E: “Complete culture in 2 hours transporting you to a different existence in another time, location or fantastical dream.”
✍️ N.F: “Food! Japan and Mexico for example are loved in so many parts of the world for their food. It is a way to reach every individual. Even my parents who grew up in rural Australia, the local Chinese restaurant still leaves an impression.”
🎤 B.C: “Music speaks to everyone no matter the language.”
✍️ R.J.W: “Social media. It doesn't fall neatly into any of these categories, but it influences younger generations at a rate most of these other cultural exports can't meet.”
✍️ A: “I'd argue that sports count as a cultural export. If you go anywhere in the world, people know who Messi and Ronaldo are.”
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