Today’s briefing:
— The Pope-Trump-Italy intrigue
— Now that’s an entrance (in Hungary)
— New embassy just dropped
Sponsored by:
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. A trombone. A treasure chest. Ballet shoes.
The common link? Not my latest ill-disciplined trip to Aldi, but rather some of the new emojis released by the San Francisco-based Unicode Consortium.
Okay now try this one: Donald Trump. Giorgia Meloni. Pope Leo.
The common link? We’ll answer that and more in today’s bumper edition of Intrigue.
PS - ¿Hablas español? ¡Check out our weekly edition in Spanish!
Ranking of the day
7th
That’s now Taiwan’s share market world ranking after overtaking the UK. It’s AI-driven, with the TSMC chips giant alone accounting for ~60% of Taiwan’s total market cap.
You gotta have faith
You may have noticed Pope Leo is having his moment in the sun this week — both literally in the Algeria-Cameroon-and-Angola sense, but also figuratively in the Trump Tirade™ sense. Since Italian journalists are on strike, we’re in the pulpit to fill you in.
First, the cast of characters:
While the Vatican is the world’s smallest sovereign state by population and size, the Pope’s ‘pastor in chief’ influence extends to 1.4 billion baptised Catholics around the world, plus many more folks among the Catholic-curious.
Then there’s Italy’s conservative prime minister and famed Trump-whisperer, Giorgia Meloni. Italy’s PMs often comment on papal matters, given a) the Vatican is literally inside Rome, and b) Italy is Catholic-majority, but also c) Meloni in particular has connected with a more conservative and devout base across Italy.
We’re going to assume you don’t need a primer on President Trump or VP Vance. Now…
Second, the plot:
This particular pope has been weighing into political issues for decades, and many would say that’s kinda the job of a preacher: speak truth to power, be a voice for the voiceless.
He’s weighed in particularly on migration, not just per his church’s teachings on welcoming the stranger, but also reflecting his decades serving among Peru’s poor.
And maybe that’s why this Chicago-born preacher’s politics rarely generated many headlines over the years — because it generally wasn’t too surprising.
But that all changed once Leo emerged as our world’s surprise new pope: by November, he was openly calling for "deep reflection" on Trump 2.0’s treatment of migrants, and then days after Trump’s big Maduro operation in Venezuela, the pope used his annual State of the World address to dunk on what he termed a "diplomacy of force".
So by Easter, things were already pretty tense with the White House, when the pope…
Cautioned that “God does not bless any conflict”
Labelled Trump’s threat to destroy civilization in Iran as "truly unacceptable”, and
Added that God doesn’t listen to the prayers of those who wage war (read: Trump 2.0).
So that’s how we got to, you know, a sitting US president calling the pope “weak on crime”, arguing the pontiff “wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon”, then posting/deleting an image depicting himself in a Christ-like pose.
It’s also how we got a Trump-friendly Meloni then a) siding (🇮🇹) with the Vatican, b) criticising Trump's remarks, and c) defending the principle of religious independence: “I would not feel at ease in a society where religious leaders are expected to follow political direction”.
Third, the scheduling:
The pope now has ample time to get quizzed for more comment, because 70 journalists are now accompanying him on the papal plane for his 11-day apostolic journey around Africa. So there’s no shortage of fuel for the media fire. And that leads us to…
Fourth, the location:
Having the pope’s Africa headlines dominated by a US spat plays rather bluntly to a continent already feeling forgotten by the West. So… what is the pope doing in Africa?
a) As the world’s fastest-growing, youngest, and poorest continent, the Vatican has long seen Africa as a priority not just for the Church, but the world.
b) A fifth of the world’s Catholics (288m) are already in Africa, with that number now growing faster than anywhere else — it’s dubbed the hope of the Church.
c) This pope belongs to the Order of Saint Augustine, who spent most of his life in what is now Muslim-majority Algeria, hence history’s first-ever papal visit. And…
d) The pope seems to be focusing on conflict and reconciliation, urging peace via diplomacy in (say) Cameroon’s troubled city of Bamenda.
Given the epic crowds turning up at each stop, it’s a message that seems to be resonating.
Intrigue’s Take
Counterintuitively perhaps, this whole spat has given the pope’s Africa trip more coverage than it might’ve received otherwise. And that context also means that a very standard pope line (peace is cool guys?) now seemingly boosts his stature in a world already asking questions about US power. It’s giving Streisand Effect.
It also hints at a longer-term realignment we’re seeing around the world: his Algeria stop had the personal angle we explored above, but it’s bigger than that — amid creeping scepticism towards the West, his Algeria visit looked to us like an attempt to reframe the Church not as some vexed Western import, but rather a 2,000-year-old tradition resting on deep, African foundations.
Sound even smarter:
Africa’s country with the largest population and largest Catholic community is Nigeria, which hasn’t had a papal visit since 1998.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — Latest developments.
China’s foreign minister (Wang) has sounded upbeat about his latest call with Iran’s FM, arguing “a window of opportunity for peace is opening”. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s powerful military chief is in Tehran for consultations towards a possible second round of US-Iran talks. (China’s foreign ministry)
Comment: The diplomacy sounds positive (the markets certainly think so), though the US and Iran still seem far apart on the key issues like nukes and proxies.
🇭🇺 HUNGARY — Fast and furious.
PM-elect Magyar isn’t wasting any time: he’s used his first appearance on national public media since 2024 to accuse Hungarian outlets of spouting propaganda for the outgoing Orbán administration, then called for Hungary’s president (a symbolic / constitutional post) to step down for similar reasons, arguing “he is unworthy of embodying the unity of the Hungarian nation”. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: Magyar is running against the clock to unlock billions in EU funds with an August deadline, currently frozen due to Orbán-era rule of law concerns. Given Magyar’s new supermajority, he could push for constitutional changes to ditch the president and other Orbán appointees, and is already warning of exactly that.
🇯🇵 JAPAN - Spend money to earn money.
Tokyo has pledged $10B in financial assistance to Southeast Asian nations now struggling with a Hormuz-linked energy squeeze. (AA)
Comment: It’s a strategic move on several levels: a) good PR for Japan’s competition with China, b) it also counters a regional reliance on China, and c) it helps shore up regional supply chains Japan itself needs (eg medical supplies).
🇮🇹 ITALY - Israel deal suspended.
Prime Minister Meloni has declined to renew a decades-old defence agreement with Israel regulating the exchange of military kit and defence research. (Politico)
Comment: As always, timing is everything: the decision comes after a) the IDF shot warning rounds at an Italian peacekeeping convoy in Lebanon, b) Italy protested the barring of Cardinal Pizzaballa from an Easter holy site in Jerusalem, and c) Meloni herself just emerged bruised from a referendum defeat last month, and seems to be tacking closer to public opinion on this (plus the Trump spat we explored above).
🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES - Cyanide?
Manila is accusing China-based fishermen of dumping cyanide near the contested Spratly Islands, in an attempt to poison the local fish helping sustain Philippine troops in a nearby outpost. Beijing has dismissed the accusations. (BBC)
🇵🇪 PERU - Left-field candidate.
Defying the polls, leftist candidate Roberto Sanchez looks poised to clinch second place in last Sunday’s presidential election, taking him to June’s runoff against the conservative-populist Keiko Fujimori. Sanchez, a former minister under jailed ex-president Pedro Castillo, has picked up Castillo’s mantle and promises to change the constitution. (France24)
Comment: The possibility of a Castillo 2.0 will rattle investors in Peru’s vast minerals sector, potentially pausing new projects until after June’s dust settles.
🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA - New man in town.
South Africa has appointed high-profile Apartheid-era negotiator Roelf Meyer as its new ambassador to the US in an attempt to reset tense DC ties, after the Trump-era spat over South Africa’s approach to white citizens. (Guardian)
🇺🇦 UKRAINE - Killer robots.
President Zelensky has claimed his troops seized an enemy position using only unmanned arms (drones and ground systems), while his defence minister has credited drones for inflicting a record 35,000 casualties on invading Russian troops last month. (Euractive)
Comment: This conflict will be studied through history but a few early lessons include a) the way Ukraine is using tech to mitigate Putin’s manpower advantages, and b) the way Putin’s invasion has ended up leaving a tech-advanced military power — not a vassal state — on his doorstep.
Extra Intrigue
Meanwhile, in other worlds…
Energy: A fire has shut one of Australia’s two operating refineries, exacerbating energy stress in a country that imports ~90% of its liquid fuel needs.
Tech: Remember Allbirds, the shoe brand that had tech employees in a chokehold? After losing 99% of its value, it’s now pivoting to sell AI!
Entertainment: A South Korean court has jailed US YouTuber Johnny Somali for inappropriately touching a statue commemorating WWII-era ‘comfort women’.
Embassy of the day
Credits: Ireland.ie
We’ve written extensively about the retrenchment of diplomacy as capitals tighten their belts and lose trust in traditional channels, but today we’ll be doing the opposite.
That futuristic building above? It’s Ireland’s shiny new embassy in Abuja, Nigeria, located on the EU mission compound.
And it’s part of the ‘Global Ireland’ project, which aims to “double the scope and impact of Ireland’s global engagement”. It’s already opened 25 new missions since 2018, with another two (Málaga, Melbourne) due this year. Believe us when we tell you that in diplomacy, this is warp speed.
Today’s poll
Do you think more firms will follow Allbird's hard pivot to AI?
Yesterday’s poll: Which quirky indicator do you think best measures geopolitical influence?
🛍️ Luxury brand exports (27%)
🧑⚖️ Citizens running key international bodies (17%)
🎥 TV show streams abroad (24%)
✏️ Foreigners learning your language (29%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
✏️ E: “Learning a language can be an indicator of all the other things happening. When your language is the one to learn, it means it’s best for business, politics, entertainment, etc—and that means your influence has permeated far and wide.”
✍️ N.F: “Food trends - Matcha being an ongoing one.”
✍️ D.L: “Frequency of direct flights to major cities and financial centers.”
🎥 S.K.P: “Korea's Hallyu Wave kicked off in a lot of countries with K-drama viewership, both before and in the age of streaming services.”