1️⃣ One year on | 2️⃣ A Meloni-themed restaurant in Albania | 3️⃣ Speech of the day |
Hi Intriguer. In addition to Peking duck, Sri Lankan crab, and cheeseburgers (I won’t add to global tensions by specifying which cheeseburgers), I also really love hearing from the growing community of 110,000 folks around the world who read our Intrigue briefings each day.
And you didn’t disappoint after Friday’s briefing, dear Intriguer, about some of the most intriguing military installations across the Indo-Pacific. That’s because several of you kindly reached out to note that, despite our comically long list of food options available at the world’s largest US base abroad (Camp Humphreys in Korea), we somehow still missed a second Popeyes, a Quiznos, a Texas Roadhouse, and many more.
Anyway, I confess I needed that little dose of levity as I (like many others) have reflected on where we are now, a year on from the Hamas attacks of October 7. That’s our lead for today.
Hezbollah and Israel continue trading fire.
Hezbollah-launched rockets have just hit the northern Israeli city of Haifa for the first time, while Israel has continued its strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Meanwhile, there’ve been reports of intensified Israeli operations in northern Gaza, potentially seeking a breakthrough ahead of today’s October 7 commemorations.
Bomb attack kills two citizens of China in Pakistan.
The Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA), an armed group fighting to secede from Pakistan, has claimed responsibility for a deadly suicide bomb attack on a convoy carrying Chinese engineers and investors. The BLA has previously targeted China’s interests in Pakistan as the two countries grow closer.
Rio Tinto makes acquisition bid for Arcadium Lithium.
Continuing a trend of consolidation within the sector, British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto has made a non-binding takeover offer for US-based Arcadium Lithium, one of the world’s largest lithium producers with operations across Argentina, China, Canada and Australia.
UK government hits early turbulence.
Less than 100 days after taking office, newly-installed Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer has replaced his chief of staff Sue Gray after controversy swirled around her high salary and alleged poor performance. Starmer has replaced her with Morgan McSweeney, who led Labour's general election campaign.
Low turnout in Tunisian election.
Less than 28% of eligible voters participated in yesterday’s (Sunday) presidential election, which featured no real opposition to incumbent Kais Saied. In recent years, he’s concentrated power into his own hands and hobbled any opposition.
Clockwise from top centre: Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu; Iran’s Ali Khamenei; US president Joe Biden; recently assassinated Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah; and Hamas figure Basem Naim
It's now been a year since the Hamas attacks on Israel left 1,200 dead, so let's take a look at how our world has changed since October 7, through the eyes and words of some of the main protagonists who've all made public statements in recent days.
"We will return our hostages in the south, return our residents in the north, and ensure the eternity of Israel" - Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel
Netanyahu made that pledge yesterday (Sunday), and it not only summarises his continued aims, but also his current vibe: confident. Why? He's now landed a string of blows against Israel's foes, and that seems to have rehabilitated his standing back home, with Israel's Channel 12 just releasing polling suggesting he's now the preferred PM again.
You can also see that confidence not only in his dismissal of various ICJ and ICC proceedings, but also in his dismissal of Western backers who've criticised the way Israel has gone about defending itself: leaving rubble that might take 15 years to clear; 80,000 homes destroyed; 2.3 million Gazan lives disrupted; countless lives gone.
Looking ahead, key questions on Bibi now include: a) what happens with his criminal charges at home (he's due in court in December); b) where his next moves against Iran and Hezbollah might lead; c) the fate of the ~100 hostages still held in Gaza a year later; and d) whether Netanyahu comes up with viable answers on Gaza's future.
That’ll partly determine whether he can avoid any of his recent tactical wins giving way to longer-term strategic defeats: eg, more regional hostility and international isolation, all translating into more insecurity for Israel.
"Hamas is still in a very good shape" - Basem Naim, Hamas head of international relations
Naim just made this claim on state-run Saudi TV, and it's interesting for three reasons. First, Naim is one of the dwindling number of Hamas leaders still alive for comment (his boss Sinwar is in hiding); and second, because Hamas sources themselves say all but one of their combat battalions are now gone. But also third, because Naim is the same guy who claimed Hamas didn't kill civilians, despite it livestreaming hours of proof to the contrary.
In his interview this weekend, Naim went on to describe the Hamas goal for October 7 as putting the Palestinian cause "back on the table". But when asked about the costs of the resulting war, Naim accepted no responsibility and declined to renounce his group's long-held goal of destroying Israel.
As for what's next? Naim went on to acknowledge the possibility he may be assassinated and that Hamas may be dismantled, but he expressed defiance that others will replace Hamas, just as Hamas replaced others before it.
"The group’s missile force is still striking various targets deep within northern occupied Palestine" - An unnamed Hezbollah commander
That appeared in Hezbollah's latest statement, and it's interesting for three reasons: first, the "occupied Palestine" line seems to be a reference to northern Israel, and is a reminder that Hezbollah, together with Hamas and their shared sponsor Iran, have long sought Israel’s destruction. Second, because notwithstanding the elimination of much of its leadership and arsenal, Hezbollah is still striking a defiant tone.
And third, that might be because, while some of Hezbollah's local rivals will welcome the listed terrorist group's demise, Israel’s role - and the displacement of 1.3 million people in the process - all risks uniting pan-Lebanese sentiment against Israel again.
"And God willing, this too will not last for long" - Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran
This line is interesting for a bunch of reasons: first, it appeared in Khamenei's first public sermon in five years on Friday. Second, he spoke both in Farsi (for a domestic Iranian audience) and Arabic (for the broader region), seeking to bolster teetering domestic and regional support for his regime.
But third, it's also interesting because when he refers to "this" not lasting long, he's referring to Israel. But rather than use Israel’s name, he calls it the "Zionist regime", "the US's rabid dog", "plundering devils", and so on - a reminder not just of his own refusal to acknowledge Israel's existence, but also his own long-held aim to seek its demise.
"Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel" - Joe Biden, the US president
Biden reiterated his support after last week’s Iranian missile attack on Israel, but that support has come against a backdrop of increased social and political divisions across the West not seen in response to other conflicts like (for example) the Syrian civil war that's left half a million people dead, or the Sudanese civil war that's displaced ten million.
Meanwhile, Washington’s moves to back Israel, deter Iran, and broker a ceasefire in Gaza have also complicated US efforts to 'pivot' to challenges closer to home (like China’s rise), or respond to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And you can see that in the numbers: there were 30,000 US troops in the Middle East on October 6th last year; that number now exceeds 43,000.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
There are several other big issues also playing out. Here are two:
Key regional players like the Saudis have now paused their moves to recognise Israel, absent any two-state solution, and yet
While international support for a two-state solution has increased (eg, ~145 out of 193 countries now recognise a Palestinian state), support has decreased where it arguably matters most: polls suggest that, amid all the fighting, only minorities of Palestinians and Israelis now support a two-state solution.
So a year on, the Hamas attacks and Israel's response have seemingly left a weaker Iran and its proxies, a relatively stronger Israel, a region still counting its dead, and any kind of sustainable political solution looking even further out of reach.
Also worth noting:
Our very own John and Jeremy will be appearing live on the next episode of 2WAY to chat more about the Middle East. The conversation is scheduled for 6pm later today (October 7) in New York, which is 11pm in London, 6am on October 8 in Singapore, and 9am in Sydney. You can join the discussion here.
🇰🇵 North Korea: Supreme leader Kim Jong-Un has again threatened to use nuclear weapons against democratic South Korea, in an apparent response to President Yoon Suk Yeol saying the North Korean regime would collapse if it attacked the South. These kinds of diss battles aren’t new, though the latest round comes just after both Kim and Yoon unveiled new weapons capabilities.
🇪🇺 EU: The EU’s top court has ruled that the EU-Morocco fishing and farming deals struck in 2019 were invalid due to the lack of consultation with the inhabitants of Western Sahara, a vast territory claimed by Morocco. The US, Spain, and France have moved to recognise Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in recent years, though it remains a hotly contested issue.
🇳🇿 New Zealand: The Kiwi navy has lost its first ship at sea since WWII after one of its specialist diving and ocean imaging vessels ran aground off the Pacific Island nation of Samoa. Amid rough weather, the ship caught fire before capsizing, but all 75 crew made it off safely.
🇭🇹 Haiti: Armed gangs have killed at least 70 people during an attack on a town in central Haiti, in another indication the country’s gang violence is spreading beyond the capital of Port Au Prince. The UN Security Council renewed the Kenya-led security mission to Haiti just last week, though progress has been slow.
🇲🇺 Mauritius: This year’s lengthy list of elections just got a little longer after the president of Mauritius announced the country will now hold its general elections on 10 November. The announcement came just a day after the UK agreed to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.
A burglar in the UK has hung out the washing, brought out the bins, and even tidied up the house he broke into.
An unauthorised viral cookie pop-up has landed in deep doo-doo after convincing Australians to pay US$12 for a single stale cookie.
Thousands of parrots have invaded an Argentinian town after deforestation drove the birds out of their own homes in the surrounding hills.
A Meloni-themed restaurant has opened in Albania, featuring over 70 portraits of the prime minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni.
And the Alaskan national park behind ‘Fat Bear Week’, where folks can vote for their favourite chunky bear, has delayed proceedings after the official livestream showed a bear killing one of its competitors (!).
The president of Argentina, Javier Milei. Photo credit: REUTERS/Mike Segar.
Okay, do you recognise this line?
“We’re for freedom of speech everywhere. We’re for freedom to worship everywhere. We’re for freedom to learn… for everybody… That most fundamental idea cannot be met with merely our support. It has to be met with our strength. Diplomatically, economically, materially. "
Yep, it’s one of many cracking lines dropped by the fictional former president of the United States in the hit TV show, The West Wing (1999 to 2006).
But if you said you heard it during the president of Argentina’s speech at the UN in New York last month, you might be right too. That’s because Javier Milei is now facing accusations he plagiarised bits of his speech from The West Wing. Word out of Buenos Aires is that one of his top advisors is a massive fan of the show.
When do you think the Israel-Hamas war and wider conflict will end? |
Last Thursday’s poll: What do you think this joint Russia-China patrol through the Bering Sea means?
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🥱 Nothing, chill (9%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👉 It's a (limp) show of force (64%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 😮 The tides are turning (25%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
👉 S.L: “Sailing in international waters is a right for everyone. China and Russia have done little more than low-level posturing.”
😮 M.D: “Slippery slope. Russia and China are testing the waters. They have made it very clear their ultimate ambitions and they will keep pushing along paths of least resistance.”
🥱 C.D: “In the early 90s, one of my military colleagues went to China on a mil-to-mil exchange. She observed a map on the wall of ‘Historic China’ that extended north to the Arctic (including Siberia!). So, they may look to be buddies now, but don't look for the marriage to last...”
✍️ D.K: “We patrol theirs (eg, Taiwan Strait) so now they patrol ours…”
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