Today’s briefing:
— The IMF wants its money back
— ASML's monopoly under threat?
— Aerial pic of the year
Your Insider’s briefing:
— The IMF wants its money back
— ASML's monopoly under threat?
— Aerial pic of the year
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. If you ever score an invite to one of Argentina’s famous asados, the correct answer is yes: your tastebuds haven’t lived until they’ve tried slow-smoked vacío with a generous pour of Malbec amid a soft crackle of woodsmoke and laughter in the evening air.
But if you ever get an invite to underwrite a $60B loan for Argentina? I’m bullish, but (ahem) first maybe take a quick look at today’s briefing on the IMF’s historic and high-stakes visit to Argentina?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
🏖️ Heads-up: we’ll be on our annual August summer break next week, but the world will probably stay pretty chill in our absence right?
Number of the day
10.84%
That’s how far Korea’s benchmark Kospi stock index just fell today (Tuesday), amid continued high leverage, jitters around tech valuations, and concerns over intensifying competition from China. More on that below.
Loan on me.
That’s the IMF’s Georgieva greeting Argentina’s Milei
It’s a busy time to be president of Argentina. When not batting away his inner circle’s corruption scandals, or hopping across the border to campaign for ideological allies, Javier Milei is rolling out the red carpet for dignitaries back home.
We’ll lean into that last point today, because Milei is now hosting International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva. Who cares, you might ask?
Well Argentina and the IMF have more history than a guided tour at Hampton Court: decades of populist politics and boom-bust economics have seen Argentina lean on the IMF a record 23 times, culminating in 2018’s historic $57B bailout that’s now left Argentina the fund's top borrower, by far.
And that all set the stage for boofy-haired, chainsaw-wielding libertarian Milei to sweep to power in late 2023, pledging economic shock therapy to end the cycle.
So with that backstory, it’s worth a quick look at what’s now behind Georgieva’s trip: yes, she’s there to check in on Argentina’s economy, a little like John Gotti turning up with a baseball bat “just to see how the business is doing…”.
But it turns out Georgieva can leave the bat in the Cadillac because Milei actually has plenty of good news to share:
Annual inflation is now at 33.5%, down from 2024’s peak of over 200%
He just scored Argentina’s third credit rating upgrade in three months
Argentina’s US bond spread is now at its lowest in eight years, and
He’s doubled Argentina’s gross central bank reserves to ~$49B.
That’s partly why Georgieva just appeared next to Argentina's central bank chief and declared “Argentina today is in a strong position”, adding “I’m not worried”. We like to think Milei, the self-described anarcho-capitalist who famously campaigned on a pledge to torch Argentina’s entire monetary system, blinked back a manly tear.
So then what’s with Georgieva’s Cadillac and baseball bat out front?
Milei’s wins notwithstanding, it’s not all Malbec and empanadas in Argentina.
First, there’s still the economy itself, with Milei’s budget-balancing welfare cuts also fuelling a cost-of-living crisis while household loan delinquencies soar. Growth is also uneven, plus tax revenues (real terms) actually fell the first half of the year, though it’s worth noting this initial fall is partly by design — Milei ditched distortive but revenue-raising taxes in hopes of more growth and investment longer term.
Second, look at Georgieva’s itinerary: that ominous Cadillac is now rolling into Vaca Muerta for a look at one of the world’s largest shale reserves. Long stalled by years of macro chaos and currency controls, Milei has now hit the gas with his new ‘RIGI’ law pledging regulatory and FX stability, in turn attracting the capital for Argentina’s final missing piece: a 437km (270mi) export pipeline out to the Atlantic. Output is already surging, surpassing Colombia as South America’s #4 oil producer.
The hope is it’ll all help Argentina accumulate the foreign reserves it needs to stabilise its economy, repay its loans, and finally escape its debt-and-default cycle.
The third and final driver behind Georgieva’s visit relates to timing: wouldn’t you know it, but Buenos Aires is actually due to start repaying its principal IMF debt next month with an initial $800M, ahead of another $7B due across next year.
Seems doable, right? But the IMF isn’t Argentina’s only lender — throw in the private bondholders, other multilaterals like the World Bank, and a few bilateral lenders like China, and the total amount owing next year comes to a cool $23B.
Then throw in the fact this is all while Milei is up for re-election in October 2027, and you’ll feel a familiar pressure: translate those macro wins into voter benefits, or risk both his second term and repayment plan sliding back into the danger zone.
So that’s why Georgieva just showed up with a smile and a baseball bat: Argentina’s recovery is real, but the hardest test — political and fiscal — is somehow still ahead.
Intrigue’s Take
To paraphrase the ol’ banking adage…
| Intrigue Insiders | Membership |
Our experienced, unfiltered takes on what's really going on.
| ✓Daily audio edition | ✓Completely ad-free |
| ✓Insider Telegram community | ✓Monthly AMAs |
| Start your free trial → | $14.99/mo · $149/yr 7 days free |
Intrigue’s Take
To paraphrase the ol’ banking adage: if you owe the bank $60k, that’s your problem. But owe the bank $60 billion? Well that’s the bank’s problem. And while the IMF is hardly a commercial operation, this all still hints at the broader rationale behind Georgieva’s warm praise and big itinerary: the IMF just can’t afford for Milei to fail.
Sure, there’s the fiscal reality that Argentina’s debt alone is roughly double the IMF’s entire $25B ‘precautionary balance’ safety net. If Argentina enters its 10th default — or 24th bailout — that risks blowing a hole in the IMF’s balance sheet and triggering more awkward funding conversations with member states (plus the US Congress) already laser focused on their own balance sheets. Others (like China) would sense an opportunity to build their own lending footprint and leverage.
But there’s also the reality that the IMF’s entire global authority rests on the idea that its programs eventually work. And this is not just any old IMF program we’re talking about, but the largest in history (by far). So in that context, Milei is not just running a live stress test on whether market shock therapy can survive a modern democracy. Rather, it’s a high-stakes referendum on whether our world’s most critical economic institution — and the theory behind it — is still even fit for purpose.
That’s why a DC-based Bulgarian economist is now in town, doing whatever she can to ensure political patience won’t snap before those sweet sweet shale dollars really start flowing.
Sound even smarter:
Argentina famously used foreign reserves to repay an earlier ~$10B in 2006, and free itself from IMF oversight. But expansionist money-printing and a subsequent market panic then obliterated its dollar reserves, bringing Argentina back for history’s largest IMF loan just 12 years later.
The IMF also wants Argentina back in global credit markets so investors can take the baton, but Milei’s economy minister (Caputo) prefers to hold out for cheaper borrowing costs rather than rush back to Wall Street at a premium.
Today’s briefing is sponsored by:
Cap table tools founders and finance teams love
As you grow, you need a cap table management platform that you can trust to keep up.
From issuing grants to 409A valuations or ASC 718 reporting, Pulley gives you the tools to manage equity. Experience a platform built for you: transparent, reliable, and designed to put your company first.
[👋 Prefer ad-free reading? Sign-up to Intrigue Insiders today!]
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — The latest.
A fragile and unofficial US-Iran pause is still holding, with President Trump reporting the US is “having good talks” with Tehran. For its part, Iran still says it’s in control of Hormuz, and is rejecting claims of any direct US talks, while seemingly testing the truce: US partners Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia have all reported drone attacks on their territory, possibly from proxies. (Reuters)
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Open model crossfire.
After his absence from Friday’s big Silicon Valley open letter against bans on open AI models, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei has argued that while open models do foster innovation, unchecked releases pose unique risks. The answer, he says, is to curb authoritarian access to advanced chips, crack down on mass distillation (copying), and ensure every capable AI model — open or not — goes through mandatory safety testing. His critics argue he’s just fearmongering to get competitors hit by regulation. (Anthropic)
Comment: This whole US fight is happening while its AI giants feel the heat from all directions: enterprise buyers at home are getting stingier with their token spending, while China’s Kimi K3 just shared its own weights for free; meanwhile, China’s CXMT chipmaker just surged ~500% on IPO, Beijing just rejected DC’s distillation claims, and (per below) the West’s lithography moat might already be leaking. And that’s just one day!
🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA — Refined tastes.
Canberra has announced a feasibility study for a new refinery in the state of Western Australia. If greenlit, Australia’s third oil refinery would be its first new one in 60 years. (gov.au)
Comment: To be clear, it’s just an announcement — of a study — and Australia would still rely on imported crude inputs for any new refinery. But add it to the list of capitals rethinking every energy vulnerability in the wake of the Hormuz squeeze.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE— Capital call.
In DC to pay tribute to the late Senator Lindsey Graham, President Zelensky is due to see President Trump at the White House later today (Tuesday). He’ll hope the recent warming of Trump ties and broader easing of MAGA sentiment might pave the way for Senator Graham’s long-planned sanctions to further cripple Putin’s war machine. (BBC)
Comment: Israel’s Netanyahu is also in town for Graham’s tribute, so keep an eye on any outcomes from his own White House meeting — Bibi will want to stop Trump from a) going soft on Iran, b) pressuring Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon and Syria, and c) granting US nuclear tech to the Saudis without Riyadh finally recognising the Jewish state.
🇫🇷 FRANCE — “Worst since WWII”.
President Macron has visited frontline emergency crews in southwestern France, after mobilising military reserves and requesting EU air support for what he’s declaring France’s worst wildfires in the post-war era. Next door, Spain is also battling its own record-breaking blazes, pushing combined evacuations across both countries past 330,000. (France24)
Comment: We explored Europe’s heatwaves last week.
🇨🇲 CAMEROON — Pay up.
An International Chamber of Commerce arbitration tribunal in Paris has ordered Yaoundé to pay Australian miner Sundance Resources $616M in damages after Cameroon’s government unlawfully handed the firm’s Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore rights to a China-backed rival. (mining.com)
Comment: It’s been a bitter six-year saga for Sundance, but this ruling is half the battle — actually collecting that $616M will be another headache. Combined with word South Africa’s Impala Platinum has now had to pause operations following a deadly accident, it’s been a day for recalling that Africa’s huge and fast-growing resource sector still carries risk.
🇳🇱 NETHERLANDS — Lithography breakthrough.
Shares in Dutch chip-machine pioneer ASML tumbled almost 8% intraday on Monday following reports a state-backed consortium in China is now making its own immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography tools. (Barrons)
Comment: Output remains modest for now, and this is not ASML’s *extreme*ultraviolet tech (EUV) crown jewel. But it’s still an example of the exact outcome US tech controls were meant to prevent: by curbing China’s access, the US just spurred Beijing to chase import substitution instead. Even these inferior DUV machines put China on a path to self-sufficiency in what’s really the workhorse for global chipmaking, posing risks to ASML earnings. That’s why investors have wobbled, though the scale suggests many are still selling the headline.
Extra Intrigue
💼 The Intrigue jobs board is back! (AI edition)
Intern (AI & Smart Cities) @ Int’l Telecommunications Union in Geneva
NatSec Policy Lead (Biotech) @ Anthropic in Washington DC
EU Policy & Partnerships @ OpenAI in Brussels
Government Affairs @ Tesla AI in Palo Alto.
[Psst — want to highlight your vacancy to 160k+ Intriguers? Hit reply!]
From our sponsors
You're Invited: Tax-Smart Investing webinar, August 6. Range's CFPs and CPAs reveal the moves that help you keep more of your returns — join live with Q&A.
Pic of the day
That’s 'Harvesting Red Chillies’ by Azim Khan Ronnie of Bangladesh.
Diplomats can spend wild amounts of time staring out jet windows. But as the world shrinks to a patchwork of fields, rivers, and cities below, sometimes — if the light is just right, and the pilot plays ball, and Crazy, Stupid, Love is not available via in-flight entertainment — the view can be worth the jet lag.
So quick shout-out to Azim Khan Ronnie, the France-based Bangladesh national who’s now been crowned the 2026 International Aerial Photographer of the Year for his portfolio, including the above snap of red chilli peppers drying in his home country’s second-largest city of Bogura.
For a team of ex-diplomats usually trafficking in debt walls and nuclear brinkmanship, there’s something comforting about the idea maybe someone is looking down through a wide lens and finding order, colour, and even beauty amongst it all.
Today’s poll
Do you think Argentina will finish repaying its IMF debt on time?
Thursday’s poll: Why do you think those 77 US tech companies opposed bans on open AI models?
🛡️ Because they suck at closed AI (54%)
👐 Because they believe in open AI (45%)
✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)
Your two cents:
✍️ S.D.B: “Varies by the company: Most are trying to keep their costs lower since they can see how the end of token subsidization is working out for them in their monthly bills. Some want to host open models on their infrastructure or sell hardware. (Microsoft, Google, HuggingFace, Dell for example.) Others are terrified of any restrictions on "AI" that could bounce back on them. (OpenAI, Meta might land here.)”
✍️ E.K: “Because they recognize that if DC can shut down other AI operations, it can shut down theirs, too.”
😎 We’d love you to join our group-chat — become an Insider today!