Today’s briefing:
— The geopolitics of a funeral
— Iran rejects an Omani deal
— Epic interview cameo
Your Insider’s briefing:
— The geopolitics of a funeral
— Iran rejects an Omani deal
— Epic interview cameo
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Long-time subscribers might recall we used to contrast the way different headlines around the world would frame the exact same events but for their own respective national audiences. Never conclusive, often directional, always intriguing.
So before today’s briefing on Senator Lindsey Graham’s funeral, join me for a quick world-tour, starting with…
Ukraine’s UNN: ‘Warrior poet, warrior comedian’: Graham admired Zelensky and the courage of Ukrainians — Fox News Host
Russia’s RIA: Zelensky was moved away from Trump at Graham’s funeral
Taiwan’s Taipei Times: Graham a ‘true friend of Taiwan’, President Lai says of late US senator
China’s SINA: With Graham's sister taking over as ‘warmonger’, can the ‘China hawks’ still influence the White House?
The Times of Israel: ‘He loved Israel’: Lindsey Graham eulogized by Trump and other dignitaries at DC funeral, and…
Iran’s IRNA: Trump says Lindsey Graham was extremely warmongering.
Onwards?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
🏞️ Heads-up: we’ll be on Intrigue’s annual August break next week, but we’ll still be exploring world events in the group-chat, so become an Insider today!
Number of the day
9,000
That’s how many jobs — one in five — Porsche is now cutting over the next decade after the legendary German automaker sold ~42k cars in China last year, less than half its 2021 peak. US payments giant Visa is also laying off 7% (2,600 jobs), following a similar move by its rivals at Mastercard (4%) amid AI efficiencies.
End of an era?
The late Lindsey Graham.
17 days after Senator Graham (71) died of a sudden aortic tear, his nation has now laid him to rest via two invite-only, heavily-fortified events in DC: a morning tribute in the Capitol Rotunda, followed by a 2pm service at the National Cathedral.
But behind all the solemn protocol sat a startling array of international dignitaries. Why were they there, and what does this reveal about our world? Let’s start with...
🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelensky
It’s no secret how Graham felt about Putin's invasion — the Republican lawmaker had only just returned from his 10th visit to Kyiv since 2022, as one of America's last high-profile Senate hawks still reliably flexing bipartisan muscle for Ukraine.
And sure enough, just hours after the funeral, the Senate held an initial symbolic vote on Graham’s cherished sanctions bill to hit Putin's top energy-buyers and further choke the Kremlin's war machine: China now buys half Russia's crude, and India another 36%. Guess who still buys 49% of Russia's LNG? Europe.
But that buyer list hints at why there's still a bit of unease on the Hill amid fears of more energy chaos, or irking swing players like India (a balance against China).
Anyway, Zelensky used his White House meeting to keep President Trump engaged, and now returns home with news Trump's envoys (Witkoff and Kushner) will finally visit Kyiv after eight (!) Witkoff pilgrimages to Moscow — another sign Trump’s orbit (and Putin’s leverage) might be softening.
Then barely six minutes after Zelensky departed, another motorcade pulled into the South Portico, and out hopped...
🇮🇱 Benjamin Netanyahu
We actually just saw a rare Bibi-Zelensky chat in the funeral pews: Israel has long been wary of publicly backing Ukraine for fear of both a) inviting Russian hostility, and b) diluting US support. That’s why this funereal chat, plus notable new bonhomie among their two foreign ministers, has fuelled speculation of a possible Ukraine-Israel rapprochement. But we'll believe that when it goes beyond words.
As for Bibi's funeral attendance? That's no surprise — Israel’s security was Graham's other foreign policy passion. But the timing is precarious: a record 60% of Americans now have an unfavourable view of Israel; barely one in three Americans now support Trump's war on arch-rival Iran; and half of Americans now believe the US should actually arrest Netanyahu over Israel's actions in Gaza!
You can see that shift in Trump too: the White House has been rebuffing Bibi's recent meeting requests, and Trump himself just used a Fox appearance to dunk on the Israeli leader: responding to reports Netanyahu would bring intel that Iran is rebuilding its Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility, the US president was dismissive, warning "Bibi's telling me that because he wants me to stay involved."
Meanwhile, Iran itself might've just done a better job at keeping Trump engaged: just as DC’s mourners were filing home, the mullahs launched a surprise ballistic attack targeting US forces in Jordan (which says it intercepted them all).
And sitting just a few rows back was the man hoping to replace that regime entirely...
🇮🇷 Reza Pahlavi
Iran's exiled crown prince has faded from the headlines, both as Iran's regime-collapse scenarios appear more distant, but also as some of his own émigré supporters baulk at his silence on (say) Trump’s “back to the Stone Age” rhetoric.
But Senator Graham was always one of Pahlavi's most prominent congressional backers. And Pahlavi has now used a WaPo oped to argue the feeling was mutual, describing the senator’s Amoo Lindsey (Uncle Lindsey) nickname among Iranians as evidence of their high regard for his long-standing opposition to the regime.
But with this war clearly not going to plan (assuming there still is one at this point), Pahlavi’s attendance at Graham's funeral is also now a low-cost way to keep the "friend of the Iranian people" narrative alive until local fortunes change.
Now from Iranian opposition dreams to NATO's northern flank via...
🇫🇮 Alexander Stubb
Finland's well-groomed leader ended up not just a friend of Graham (Stubb played college golf in the senator’s native South Carolina), but it was actually Graham who fostered the famous Stubb-Trump golf bromance. And we flag this not because we care about their handicap, but because that's really how Stubb became a critical, pro-NATO confidant countering some of DC’s more Moscow-accommodating voices.
The Finn’s presence back in DC now comes at a crucial time, giving him another shot at highlighting recent European burden-shifting successes, right as Trump 2.0 continues to openly mull America’s longer-term presence across the continent.
Now several pews back, and from one theatre of competition to another...
🇹🇼 Alexander Yui
Taiwan's de-facto ambassador was there to pay respects to a senator who famously declared that, "to abandon Taiwan would be to abandon freedom itself" — that was while co-leading a bipartisan co-del for his third and final Taiwan visit in 2022.
But with Trump 2.0 now giving increasingly transactional vibes on Taiwan, the democratic island is finding itself more reliant on congressional champions to safeguard the US commitments enshrined in DC's 1979 Taiwan Relations Act. Graham’s absence will hurt.
Then sitting right there next to Yui was...
🇸🇦 Yasir al-Rumayyan
The head of Saudi Arabia's $1.2T sovereign wealth fund just hosted Senator Graham in February, though the senator actually had a pretty volatile relationship with the kingdom: excoriating its 2018 assassination of Khashoggi and publicly scolding the Saudis over their escalating spat with the Emiratis, but then heavily pushing a US-Saudi defence pact tied to Saudi recognition of Israel.
So Al-Rumayyan's attendance on behalf of his own crown prince? It’s another low-cost way for the kingdom to keep the channel warm while (like the rival Emiratis) exploring a possible rapprochement with a resilient Iran amid US fatigue.
Anyway, if the pews offered a snapshot of a US-led world Graham fought to uphold, maybe the corridors offer a glimpse into how rapidly that world might now get rewritten.
Intrigue’s Take
Love him or otherwise…
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Intrigue’s Take
Love him or otherwise, that’s one heck of an innings: 31 years in Congress, from McCain’s hawkish wingman to his party’s lead never-Trumper, to somehow ending up the world’s Trump whisperer — a kind of bridge between America’s old-school “light unto the nations” internationalism and this more transactional America First.
For years, when allied capitals panicked over a late-night Trump tweet or early-morning Fox & Friends dunk, Senator Graham was the man on the other end of the line whispering, don’t worry about the noise, America’s still here.
But with Graham now gone, and that line now cold, the world will be wondering whether the America he represented — for good or for ill — is now gone with him.
If those Cathedral pews are anything to go by, however — and for all the talk and action around hedging, diversification, and multipolarity — this is a world that still clearly wants American air defence, sanctions muscle, and even presidential backing, perhaps because US support now appears more contingent, personal, and temporary.
And so maybe that’s how we view all the foreign dignitaries sitting there in those pews: they came to honour a senator who bridged two eras of American power; then they stuck around to figure out a bridge to the next one.
Sound even smarter:
Graham’s sanctions bill would target the top five individual nations (rather than any bloc like the EU) buying Russian crude and natural gas. Capitals can avoid the proposed gas-related sanctions if their imports are <15% of Russia’s total sales, and are taking “significant steps” to reduce that dependency.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇴🇲 OMAN — Throwing its hat in the ring.
Iran has dismissed an Omani proposal to split Hormuz control evenly, insisting all inbound and some outbound maritime traffic should transit through Iranian-controlled lanes. (WSJ $)
Comment: Tehran’s refusal — plus its surprise overnight targeting of US forces in Jordan — casts even more doubt on any current US-Iran talks, though both sides have a habit of escalation to build negotiation leverage. But what’s *Oman’s* deal here? Sure, it could be a naked profit-grab amid a regional war, but the sultanate’s close US ties leave us wondering if it could be part of a wider effort to try scaling back or undermining the regime’s demands.
🇵🇪 PERU — Fujimori Jr. inaugurated.
Conservative-populist Keiko Fujimori has used her inaugural address to pledge an “iron fist” against crime, higher minimum wages for workers, and a better climate for businesses, plus new contingency plans for the impending El Niño weather phenomenon. Extending her late father’s (controversial) dynasty, she’s now the country’s ninth leader in 10 years. (MercoPress)
🇯🇵 JAPAN — Deadly earthquake.
Yesterday’s 7.1 magnitude quake has collapsed a shopping centre in south-western Japan, leaving several dead, 300,000+ evacuated, and widespread power outages. (Japan Today)
Comment: Takaichi will need an effective and visible government response to avoid her approval ratings slumping further. The domestic bond market already seems to fear she’ll further ramp up public spending to win back support, putting more upward pressure on rates.
🇭🇹 HAITI — Elections?
Haiti’s electoral authorities have scheduled a presidential election for December, the country’s first vote in a decade. (Haitian Times)
Comment: It might be too early to celebrate given the years of earlier ballots getting postponed for political security reasons. And on that political-security dynamic, a key question is how Haiti’s all-powerful gang leaders like ‘Barbecue’ play their hand: run candidates, veto the whole process via violence, or manoeuvre to cut deals behind the scenes.
🇫🇮 FINLAND — Close the airspace.
Helsinki has closed parts of its airspace and maritime traffic near Russia, citing drone incursion risks. Meanwhile, fellow NATO ally Romania has summoned the local Russian ambassador after three more Putinist drone incursions over the weekend. (Reuters)
Comment: Any drone damage is still more political than physical at this point (eg, collapsing Latvia’s government back in May). It’s a low-cost way for Putin to fan fears of the war’s widening fallout, and test NATO unity and responses. Iran is now running a similar playbook in the Gulf, using drones (and proxies) to probe US partners amid the fragile ceasefire.
🇲🇾 MALAYSIA — Sepang is the new Bahrain.
The F1 has confirmed it’ll hold October’s Bahrain Grand Prix at Malaysia’s Sepang circuit instead, citing the continued war in Iran. Two other races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi could also be relocated later this year. (Autosport.com)
Comment: There’s a non-zero chance sporting bodies now have a better feel for Middle Eastern geopolitics than oil markets, which are still pricing in some kind of off-ramp for hostilities well before October.
🇲🇦 MOROCCO — Trump highway.
President Trump has thanked Morocco for naming a new highway in his honour, running from central Morocco down to Western Sahara. (AA)
Comment: It’s not a random gesture, but aimed at a) thanking Trump for his earlier recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the contested Western Saharan turf, and probably b) a gentle ‘push’ to accelerate US mediation efforts with rival Algeria, which prefers Western Saharan independence over Moroccan dominance.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Robot ban.
The FCC has announced a ban on humanoid and quadruped robots from China, citing the national security risks posed by their data collection and remote-control capabilities. Beijing has slammed the move as a smear campaign against China’s more competitive firms. (Guardian)
Comment: By extending DC’s ‘Covered List’ tool from telecom gear into embodied AI and robotics, Trump might hope it provides some breathing room for America’s own emerging robotics firms. But only time will tell whether the benefits (reduced competition) outweigh the costs (limited access to new tech, plus pricier inputs for American industry).
Extra Intrigue
What folks around the world are googling…
🇮🇳 Indian football fans searched for ‘FIFA’ amid reports the football body plans to sell minority stakes in its biggest tournaments — including the World Cup — to raise billions for member associations.
🇨🇦 Canadians googled ‘auto tariff impact’ after President Trump held a rally just over the border in the key auto-state of Michigan, already feeling the pain from Trump’s tariffs on Canadian parts.
And 🇦🇺 Aussies looked up ‘best block cheese’ after Cracker Barrel’s cheddar got crowned the country’s best supermarket block cheese. The more you know!
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Interview of the day
Credits: Chris Philp via Twitter/X
Most TV interviews end with an awkward wrap-up or ad-break, but British opposition MP and would-be home secretary Chris Philp just got something a little livelier: 17 gunshots from the French navy!
Exsqueeze me, y0u might ask? Yes, Philp was aboard a fishing boat recording a BBC piece on unlawful Channel migrant crossings, when a French warship made a spectacular cameo via a live-fire drill!
Philp is suggesting it might’ve been intimidation to stop him shining a light on migrant crossings from France, while Paris says it was just routine training, safely out of range.
Either way, if cable news keeps delivering live naval warning shots, we might tune right back in.
Today’s poll
What do you think of this new US ban on robots from China?
Thursday’s poll: Do you think Argentina will finish repaying its IMF debt on time?
👍 Yes, the trajectory is positive (24%)
👎 No, the recovery is too fragile (74%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
👎 J.G: “Short of Milei cancelling elections, the Argentine gains are only one election from backsliding.”
👍 H.M.R: “This time is really different, in a country so inclined to wrong solutions. Its people learnt the lesson, bloody lesson. Argentines voted twice for the hard way, as Milei clearly proposed.”
✍️ A.Z: “Argentina will begin payments but negotiate a kinder, gentler repayment schedule to allow for further recovery before bleeding off foreign currency reserves. Probably along with a guarantee to return to Wall Street’s debt market within ‘X’ months.”