Today’s briefing:
— South Korea wants peace
— Kushner meets Hamas
— A 600-year jam
Your Insider’s briefing:
— South Korea wants peace
— Kushner meets Hamas
— A 600-year jam
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. In case your weekend felt a little light on high-stakes drama, a Canadian pipe band also just marched into Scotland and strutted off with the World Pipe Band Championship title.
I like to think that somewhere in the Highlands, a Scottish grandfather is now quietly reassessing everything he thought he knew about excellence.
Which is to say: if you enjoy high-stakes tension, century-old rivalries, and unyielding noise (good bagpipes give goose-bumps btw), you’ll love today’s briefing on two surprising developments out of the Korean peninsula.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
75%
That’s roughly the proportion of active stock-picking fund managers that failed to beat the S&P 500 over the past 12 months, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Seoul mates
That’s Trump with North Korea’s Kim (L) and South Korea’s Lee (R)
Some of us leave dishes in the sink overnight. Others leave entire catastrophic wars unfinished for seven decades.
Today's briefing falls more in that second category, with two big announcements around the Korean War. By way of casual recap on that catastrophic conflict…
It started back in 1950 when the North (backed by Stalin) invaded the South to unify the peninsula under communist rule, and almost succeeded until...
A massive US-led response pushed the commies back, until...
Mao's China poured hundreds of thousands of troops over the border and fought the US to a stalemate that — three million dead later — continues today.
We've had a ceasefire since 1953, but never a formal peace treaty.
So... what's now changed?
First, South Korea's Lee Jae Myung just used Saturday's Liberation Day formalities (marking the 1945 end of Japanese colonial rule) to suggest (🇰🇷)...
a) direct talks to formally end the war
b) new safeguards to stop accidental border clashes, and
c) practical discussions to halt the North's nuclear build-up.
The big picture? Lee says he hopes the two can finally "sit face-to-face for peaceful coexistence and mutual growth".
But then second, President Trump tweeted overnight that he'll "substantially reduce" the joint US-South military drills due to kick off today (Monday).
Why? He lists a few reasons, including not just his "very good relationship" with the North's dictator (Kim), but also that the drills are a) costly, b) "hostile" to a "respectful" North, and c) harder to justify given the South didn't help on Iran.
And... how has the autocratic North responded to all this? Complete silence so far, unless you count yet another ballistic test, plus the North's first violation of the DMZ dividing line this year (drawing warning shots from the South).
So what’s going on here?
Maybe the North’s initial silence is because Kim is busy counting his lucky stars: the US would ordinarily only trade drill reductions for Northern concessions, but here those US reductions are seemingly arriving not only free of charge, but paired with a dunk on America's own allies, right as they were extending an olive branch!
It also comes just as Kim sends yet another batch of troops and missiles to help Putin's flailing invasion of Ukraine, while Kim’s own home economy booms with Russian payments, and all amid persistent rumours the US president actually wants to take another stab at Kim-Trump summitry.
Or to put it another way... go help invade Europe, cash the Russian cheques at home, then watch while your rivals dangle even more concessions plus maybe even the prospect of yet another US presidential summit further legitimising your own regime.
Perhaps the hope in Seoul and DC is that if you throw enough carrots Kim's way, it might coax him towards dialogue and even restraint. And yet history suggests dictators are always happy to eat carrots and smile for photos, but they’ll eventually start demanding dessert.
Intrigue’s Take
Trump (re)entered office on the notion that personal chemistry and sheer force of will might unlock stalemates that decades of diplomacy had left frozen or worse. But history might conclude that this approach has delivered something else entirely…
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Intrigue’s Take
Trump (re)entered office on the notion that personal chemistry and sheer force of will might unlock stalemates that decades of diplomacy had left frozen or worse. But history might conclude that this approach has delivered something else entirely.
First, the dictators themselves have not offered any meaningful concessions. To the contrary, they seem to view the free world’s instincts for de-escalation and compromise as a weakness to exploit rather than an olive branch to accept, with Trump’s transactionalism merely the latest incarnation. Putin’s war is now worse, Kim’s nuclear program is now accelerating, and the two US foes are now openly helping one another while Trump fishes around for more carrots.
Second, other US rivals are taking careful notes: yes, Trump 2.0 has now deployed more US muscle into that first island chain as part of a “deterrence by denial” strategy on China. But China will be weighing that sharper US posture against an apparent weakening in another US advantage: its alliance network now looks more conditional, and therefore more brittle. Or to put it another way, any sharper US posture is now resting on a wobbly alliance foundation. And you can see that in…
Third, other US allies are taking careful notes, too — when the price of American protection starts to include unpredictable loyalty tests, or a public rebuke for staying out of a distant war the White House never even ran past you, the rational move increasingly becomes to diversify: yes, that looks like more hedging with powers like China. But it also means more flirting with other insurance policies like nukes, an idea getting less fringe in Tokyo and Seoul with each passing year.
Now to be clear, the fundamental problem here still remains the Kim family’s repressive dictatorship and hostile worldview. But a DC treating personal chemistry as a substitute for coherent strategy, while dissing its own allies as optional extras, simply risks making that core problem even harder to solve.
Sound even smarter:
A North Korean soldier seemingly defected across the DMZ in June.
There are still around 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea, home to America’s largest overseas military base.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Kushner meets Hamas.
President Trump’s envoy and son-in-law (Jared Kushner) has held a rare meeting with the Hamas political leader in Egypt, pushing the US-backed Gaza roadmap that requires Hamas to disarm. (Axios)
Comment: Kushner is hoping he can tackle this Israel-Hamas standoff as a classic sequencing dispute — he’s now due to see Netanyahu in Israel today (Monday) for a parallel push on Bibi’s phased drawdown in Gaza (something he’s freezing until Hamas disarms). But with only a couple of months until Israel’s high-stakes elections, it’s hard to see Bibi offering any hint of conciliation.
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — Drone warfare.
A Spanish fighter jet on NATO deployment has shot down another suspected Russian drone in Romanian airspace, Russia’s fourth such incursion this year. Meanwhile, Ukraine has launched one of its biggest counter-attacks on Moscow this year, with confirmed hits on yet another logistics hub for Wildberries (Russia’s Amazon). (EuroNews)
Comment: The mutual crisis underlying both examples is now air defence, with Putin stripping S-400s and Pantsirs from elsewhere to defend Moscow, while US Patriot production won’t match rising demand until at least end of the decade.
🇮🇩 INDONESIA — Earthquake.
A 7.7 earthquake in eastern Indonesia — the country’s biggest quake in years — has left more than 50 dead, 1,350 homes damaged, and thousands more evacuated. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: The relatively remote location has left export industries unscathed for now.
🇩🇴 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC — Adiós.
Some 21 Cuban diplomats and family members have now left the Dominican Republic after Santo Domingo’s expulsion order last week. A furious Havana is blaming US pressure. (AA)
Comment: The Dominicans haven’t offered an explanation (nor does international law even require one), but it’s the latest in a string of conservative, US-friendly capitals cutting ties with the Cuban regime. It does increasingly look part of a US regional isolation strategy.
🇲🇽 MEXICO — Visa drama for ex-president’s son.
President Sheinbaum has criticised a US decision to cancel the visa for the son of her left-leaning predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (aka AMLO), calling the decision “essentially political in nature”. The US hasn’t provided public reasons for the revocation. (ABC)
Comment: We’re just speculating here, but this is either a) a continuation of that above Trump 2.0 visa strategy to pressure leftist administrations in the region (particularly amid US-Mexico trade and security talks), or b) AMLO Jr is caught up in something shady (pics of the erstwhile party official exiting a Prada store recently went viral). He denies wrongdoing. We’ll see.
🇮🇱 ISRAEL — US pressures Bibi on West Bank siege.
The US is pressuring Israel’s Netanyahu to publicly condemn an ongoing siege by Israeli settlers against Palestinian families in the West Bank village of Qusra, with even the staunchly pro-Israel US ambassador (Huckabee) calling it a “horrific act of terror”. (CBC)
Comment: This settler siege is becoming a problem for Netanyahu: his coalition will need hard-right support if he wants any chance of surviving October’s elections, and yet that support has long been conditional on his late-2022 pivot to make the expansion and legalisation of outposts Israel’s official policy. But four years later, that same political base is now producing scenes that are not just drawing condemnation (plus renewed attention on the ICJ opinion rejecting Israel’s policy), but even getting a guy like Huckabee now wielding the T-word against Israelis.
🇲🇦 MOROCCO — Mass arrests at Spain’s Ceuta border.
Moroccan police have arrested over 100 would-be migrants (and dozens of alleged facilitators) after social media posts reportedly encouraged another mass rush on the Spanish exclave of Ceuta. (Reuters)
Comment: The last big surge two weeks ago saw 70,000+ folks enter the Spanish territory, effectively doubling its population while 100+ lost their lives. Nearly all have now returned, with many telling international outlets it was actually the Moroccan authorities themselves encouraging the rush (in presumed retaliation for Spain’s rapprochement with rival Algeria next door, á la 2021 Ceuta crisis). This time around, it’s unclear who’s behind all the social media incitation. Anyway, if the earlier rush was indeed a product of hybrid Moroccan statecraft (claims angrily denied in Rabat), it’s worked, creating a lingering crisis for Madrid not to mention divisions across Brussels.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
Someone has stolen two-thirds of the 320 miniature Mozart statues dotted around Salzburg in honour of his 270th birthday.
Passengers in Northern Ireland were left stranded after their train arrived late at a station already shuttered for the night.
Australian police say a body found in a suitcase was actually just a lifelike doll.
A South Korean rescue pug has won the annual ‘World’s Ugliest Dog’ contest.
And an adult toy outside a fire station has shut down DC traffic for two hours.
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Concert of the millennium day
Credits: Haupt & Binder.
Thought the Lord of the Rings films were long? Wait until you hear about the Halberstadt organ.
Nearly a millennium old, the St. Burchardi church in Germany’s Halberstadt already has a colourful CV, from medieval monastery, to getting sold off by Napoleon’s brother, then used as a pigsty for almost two centuries.
These days, it’s famous for something even stranger: inside sits a purpose-built organ quietly performing John Cage’s ORGAN²/ASLSP (“As Slow As Possible”) — a piece deliberately stretched to last 639 years! That timing is a nod to the 639 years between Halberstadt’s first modern organ (1361) and the turn of the millennium.
Anyway, the rendition kicked off on 5 September 2001 with a full 17 months of pure silence (just humming bellows), with the first actual notes then arriving in 2003. The latest chord change just dropped earlier this month, with another not due until 2027.
The whole thing is due to finish in *checks watch* 2640!
And if you’d like your great-great-great-grandchildren to catch the finale, inheritable tickets are already on sale for around $3,000.
Today’s poll
Do you think these latest efforts will deliver peace between North and South Korea?
Our last poll: Why do you think Putin released the former US marine?
🚑 Humanitarian gesture (2%)
🎖️ Didn't want a Marine to die on his watch (63%)
😶 Secret prisoner swap (32%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
🎖️M: “Death of a US Marine held captive would activate more Americans to hate Russia and Putin really does not want an incident that would increase political pressure for Trump to supply Ukraine with more air defense.”
😶 J: “He does nothing for free, I'm sure he got someone in return.”
✍️ G.G: “Obtain some favourable optics with Trump.”
PS — Shout-out to ‘KS’ in the Intrigue group-chat for today’s ‘ROK & roll’ email subject 😄. Become an Insider and join the banter!