Today’s briefing:
— Something's moving in Myanmar's forests
— Iran reviews the latest US peace proposal
— Pre-fab homes cookies
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Years ago during Myanmar’s tentative move towards democracy, I ended up travelling with a senior Myanmar official for a week: we ate duck, saw the sights, and chatted about the country’s exciting journey ahead.
It was the classic “influence the next generation” attempt at diplomacy, but the two of us honestly got on great and I admired this person’s courage and commitment.
We then lost touch over the years, and today’s briefing on Myanmar’s regime makeover reminded me to google this person’s name, hoping against hope they might’ve survived the coup and civil war. Instead, I was a little stunned to learn they’ve not only survived Myanmar’s years of turmoil, but are now a senior cabinet minister in the military junta!
I don’t know how to square the idealistic person I saw cuddle a koala (long story), versus their decision to now serve generals with so much blood on their hands, though I don’t know what (if any) choice was even available. So let’s take a peek in their in-tray, no?
Number of the day
481m (1,578ft)
That’s how tall last year’s Alaskan mega-tsunami was, according to the most recent estimates. Triggered by a rockslide, it’s the second-biggest wave ever recorded.
Extreme makeover: regime edition
Myanmar’s general-turned-president, Min Aung Hlaing
There are corporate glow-ups, like when BackRub became Google. There are celeb rebrands, like when Snoop Dogg became Snoop Lion. And there are even national revamps, like when Swaziland became Eswatini.
But can dictators do a makeover? Let’s ask the place formerly known as Burma (Myanmar).
It’s been in a brutal civil war since the generals snatched power back from the elected Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021. The junta then crushed protests, only to lose ~half the country as ethnic groups took up arms in a war that’s displaced millions, destabilised the region, and left power vacuums that human traffickers and cyber-scammers still exploit today.
Nice move, generals.
But with arms and intel support from Moscow and Beijing, the junta has since managed to stabilise the front and regain turf, bringing us back to a ~year ago today: that’s when the junta’s top general scored a very special handshake in Moscow with… China’s Xi Jinping! He even scored an invite to see Xi again in Beijing, three months later.
The significance: a top leader? Shaking hands with General Min Aung Hlaing himself?
C’mon. This was China signalling to the world that the junta is now Myanmar’s legitimate government, and it’s time for everyone else to get on board. The junta then went on to…
✌️hold elections✌️, and
✌️reach out to the opposition✌️.
It was enough for China, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Cambodia, Thailand, India, and Laos to send congrats when General Min swore himself in as president last month.
But nobody else was buying the regime’s Botox until this week, when Thailand announced it’s now pushing to bring Myanmar’s foreign minister back into the regional ASEAN fold.
So… Myanmar’s back on the path of democracy, all good?
Not quite. Those sassy air quotes above are because the regime only…
a) held elections in regime strongholds
b) with regime-approved candidates, and so…
c) the ASEAN regional bloc has refused to recognise the result.
Those air quotes are also because of the mystery around Myanmar’s democratically-elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi (80). After more than five years, the generals finally moved her from prison to house arrest, but her family says nobody’s actually seen her!
So it’s now shaping up as a fork in the world’s Myanmar road, with the Philippines (as ASEAN chair) demanding the bloc’s special envoy get to meet her in person:
👌 If the regime agrees, it’ll bolster those (like Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia) arguing the junta is playing ball, and it’s therefore time to let them back in.
⛔ If the regime refuses, it’ll bolster those (like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore) still rejecting this regime’s attempt at a makeover.
BackRub becoming Google was a genuine upgrade. Swaziland to Eswatini was more cosmetic. But this junta rebrand in Myanmar? It still feels very beta.
Intrigue’s Take
This regional dilemma reveals some interesting insights that are relevant everywhere.
Like… why are some so keen to make up with Myanmar? One common denominator is exposure: the two nations keenest to normalise are also the two with the longest Myanmar borders — Thailand (2,400km) and China (2,200km). With five years of isolation achieving little, they argue it’s time to move on, hoping to stabilise their borders against irregular migration, transnational crime, and even junta-rebel clashes.
Another related driver is supply chains: Thailand relies on Myanmar for a ~sixth of its natural gas, which is now in higher demand amid the Hormuz energy squeeze. And China relies on Myanmar for two-thirds of its heavy rare-earth-element feedstock (even higher for niche inputs like dysprosium and terbium). So that’s a near-existential vulnerability for China’s dominance of things like EV magnets, wind turbines, and defence applications.
But the cause-effect isn’t one-directional: while Xi was shaking junta hands, his spooks were quietly engaging (and sometimes coercing) the junta’s rebel foes who actually control most of the border-region mines China needs.
So a big part of this story is not so much about any junta transformation, so much as it is about pragmatism in 2026, with geography and resources increasingly trumping all else.
Sound even smarter:
Federal filings in the US appear to show the Myanmar junta hired Trump-linked Roger Stone as a DC lobbyist for $50k a month to rebuild ties.
Today’s briefing is presented by…
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Every bulldozer, crane, and military vehicle on earth still runs on hydraulic fluid invented before your grandparents were born. RISE Robotics is the company finally replacing it with a patented electric system already trusted by the U.S. Air Force.
Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN - Considering it.
Iran has confirmed it’s reviewing a US peace proposal, though there are conflicting reports on what it says. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes have killed another Hezbollah commander in Beirut’s south, as this fragile ceasefire wobbles again. (Bloomberg $)
Comments: Some suggest the US is now demanding an enrichment moratorium (rather than full dismantlement) in return for sanctions relief, with possible silence on Iran’s proxies and missiles. If that’s true (still a big if!), it’s getting rather close to the Obama-era deal that Trump himself axed. Iran’s economy is a mess, but the regime is still there, and US allies like the Saudis are reportedly pushing Trump to take an exit.
🇰🇵 NORTH KOREA - Separate forever.
The autocratic North has formally dropped its constitutional goal of reunification with the free South, an aspiration that’s been around since the split of 1948. (DW)
Comment: It’s formalising something Kim already did back in 2024 (declaring reunification “impossible”), and it aligns with the majority of South Koreans who tell pollsters unification isn’t necessary anyway. But reframing the South not as lost brothers but permanent enemies helps Kim justify his military buildup, his closer Russia ties, and his continued repression at home.
🇨🇳 CHINA - Value me.
Hangzhou-based AI startup DeepSeek could be valued at ~$50B in its first external funding round, a 5x jump from estimates circulating just last month! (WSJ $)
Comment: Why the massive whipsaw? It’s not necessarily performance — DeepSeek’s latest V4 model is solid but still lags behind competitors (including in China). Rather, the spike likely stems from China’s state-backed ‘Big Fund’ entering as lead investor, signalling the kind of Beijing backing that can make or break fortunes, and triggering a feeding frenzy from other local giants like Tencent and Alibaba.
🇫🇷 FRANCE - Just airing out the aircraft carrier.
Paris has moved its carrier strike group to the Red Sea amid talks of a potential international mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz post-ceasefire. (Independent)
Comment: Moving your Risk pieces on the board might seem like a big deal, but it’s hard to see France (or anyone else) risking assets in Hormuz until after the war.
🇳🇿 NEW ZEALAND - Storage solutions.
Wellington is looking for commercial fuel storage solutions in Singapore and Malaysia to bolster NZ’s energy security and meet its IEA obligations. (IDN)
Comment: The Kiwis already store fuel in Italy, not because the other side of the world is practical, but because it was long a cost-effective way to comply with broader International Energy Agency rules (tapping reserves to smooth markets). But the Hormuz energy squeeze has been a wake-up call, putting a premium not just on collective action, but also on direct and physical access.
🇬🇹 GUATEMALA - See ya later.
Halfway through his four-year term, anti-corruption crusader-turned-president Bernardo Arévalo has finally managed to appoint a new attorney-general after a protracted struggle with the old one (Consuelo Porras), who’s long been sanctioned by 40 countries. (Yahoo)
Comment: The old A-G’s exit weakens entrenched elites and opens the door for genuine reform plus more foreign support, though she’s still got powerful friends across the judiciary, security forces, and private sector, so the fight ain’t over yet.
🇪🇷 ERITREA - Things change.
The US is preparing to undo Biden-era sanctions on Eritrea in a bid to improve ties with the strategically-located (Red Sea) nation. The original 2021 sanctions related to Eritrea’s role in the Tigray civil war in neighbouring Ethiopia. (Reuters)
Comment: Needless to say (but we’ll say it), Ethiopia is pissed, particularly given this US announcement came barely hours after Tigray rebels restored their own pre-war regional government, further wobbling an entire 2022 peace accord. In this new multipolar world, it seems strategic geography still trumps old war crimes.
Extra Intrigue
In other worlds…
Tech: Some kids are bypassing online age-verification checks with a fake moustache.
Media: CNN founder Ted Turner has died, aged 87.
Sports: Iran’s football boss has demanded assurances the US won’t insult the country’s regime during the upcoming FIFA World Cup in North America.
Dessert of the day
Credits: Chemnitz Ostmodern
Cities have a way of weaving food through the cultural memory and out onto tourist tables — Turkish delights, Parisian croissants, Macau bean cookies.
Some cities, though, have to get creative. So when Germany’s Chemnitz (formerly Karl-Marx-Stadt) emerged as Europe’s official Capital of Culture last year, its greatest minds came together to make a cookie (pictured above) in the form of… an exterior wall panel?
Plattenbau, or concrete builds, are famous nationwide, but have become synonymous with former East Germany’s communist days: easy, quick, and cheap units for the people.
Of course, folks in Germany have all kinds of mixed feelings about (and experiences with) these prefab structures, but they’re now part of not just German history, but cuisine!
Today’s poll
Do you think it's time to just engage with Myanmar's junta?
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think billionaires should stay in their lane?
🖐️ Yes, too much power in too few hands (78%)
✖️ No, it's a free world (20%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (2)
Your two cents:
✍️ M: “It's the government's job to put in checks, balances, sticks, and carrots to protect their citizenries and the environment from the chicanery of corporations and their titans.”
✖️ T.S: “Billionaires are the latest boogeyman. Easy to identify, easy to blame.”
✍️ S.G: “What is ‘their lane’?! Most of them are billionaires because of diversification across several ‘lanes’… What needs to be minimized is the crossover between what used to be governance and commerce.”
✍️ Corrections corner
Thanks to those Intriguers who pointed out that yesterday’s short Thailand/Myanmar sidebar used a Thailand headline but dropped a map pin on Myanmar! And thanks to Tanya for clarifying that India’s Johar rocked some fashion but is himself a filmmaker! 🤦♂️