Today’s briefing:
— Secret UN vote revealed
— That’s not a real map
— Guess who wants a back-up capital
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Secret UN vote revealed
— That’s not a real map
— Guess who wants a back-up capital
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. On a recent episode of our monthly Ask Intrigue Anything with our team of ex-diplomats (become an Insider to listen!), we flagged the surprising importance of being properly drink-fit in certain countries.
Yes, we used a spicier term, but it’s about having to put your liver on the line in service of country because, like it or not, that’s how some places do business.
So it’s with that little bout of throat-clearing that I share my delight at a recent note by American executive Mitch Presnick, who spent decades in China repping big brands like Bud and Super 8 Hotels. Reflecting on his own experiences with China’s heavier-drinking culture, he even recalls having to spend “two full days recovering from a single dinner with the Vice Governor of Shandong.” Chef’s kiss.
Anyway, Presnick now applauds this particular drinking culture’s decline, arguing “we should preserve what works and adapt what no longer does.”
Amen, not to mention a neat little segue into today’s spicy update on the race to run the UN.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
🏄 This is our last briefing until after next week’s annual August break, but we’ll still be exploring the world in Intrigue’s chat-group so become an Insider!
Number of the day
1.5%
That’s America’s Q2 economic growth (annualised) compared to expectations of around 2%, as a slowdown in government spending, investment, and net exports offsets a boost in consumer spending.
Straw poll.
That’s the top 3 in order: Costa Rica’s Grynspan, Guyana’s Rodrigues, and (half of) Argentina’s Grossi
You would not believe the extent to which diplomats are now frothing in New York, and we're duly frothing to share why: the world just got the leaked results of the UN Security Council's first 'straw poll' in its effort to anoint the next Secretary-General of the UN (Portugal's Guterres wraps on Dec 31st).
The hustle is just beginning, but basically the three frontrunners are now i) Costa Rica's ex-veep (Grynspan), ii) Guyana's ex-FM (Rodrigues), and iii) the Argentine diplomat running our world's nuclear watchdog (Grossi).
So what happens next, and why does this matter?
The UN Charter says nothing useful here, other than that it's the UN General Assembly (193 nations) that rubber-stamps the ✌️recommendation✌️ of the all-powerful 15-member Security Council. That’s where the all-the-more-powerful permanent five (P5) members have veto powers: the US, UK, France, China, Russia.
Everything else has just kind of evolved, including this strange straw poll process that emerged from an epic deadlock back in 1981: that was when China repeatedly used its veto to block a UN boss from pursuing an unprecedented third term.
The straw poll solution came from Uganda's then ambassador (Otunnu): the idea was to get a feel for how everyone was feeling about the candidates, but without all the drama, confrontation, veto threats, and ego. This left space for manoeuvrability and quiet negotiation until a consensus candidate finally emerged.
That’s the process we still have today.
Or to put it another way, the whole goal here is to find the ultimate Matt Damon candidate: easy enough to like, but really hard to hate. Like come on, he's Matt Damon! Because the moment you really irk one of those P5 players, you're finished.
So okay, how did this field of seven candidates do in last night's straw poll?
Costa Rica's Grynspan (long a #2) is now ahead, with 10 votes in favour (you only need nine), and just one mystery country casting a vote 'discouraging' her candidacy. At this stage, we have no idea if this was a P5 veto (game over?) or one of the other rotating 10 (don't write us angry letters, but realistically meh if so).
She's an impressive candidate, and clears two unofficial but important hurdles: she's from Latin America / the Caribbean which, by tradition, is due to provide the next UN boss. She's also a she, at a time when many are declaring maybe it's time to end the UN's 80-year sausage-forest at the top.
So then who’s that sole vote against? Three theories: first, as a top UN trade official, she famously negotiated part of the Black Sea grain export deal amid Putin’s invasion. An angry Putin later withdrew, so it's possible Grynspan is now collateral damage, though the Kremlin has never openly blamed her (and it wasn’t her fault).
Second, the Russians often flex their veto early as a way to signal that their support is conditional — it's an attempt to milk concessions from the candidates, whether around sanctions, policy priorities, or key appointments in the UN system.
Third, maybe one of those weaker 10 cast a vote against her. But who would do such a dastardly thing? Don't write us angry letters, but our money is on Colombia or Panama, perhaps because they prefer someone else in the top job:
Left-leaning (for a few more days) Colombia loves Chile's left-leaning Bachelet, so might've put a speedbump in front of Grynspan to help. And...
Panama is actually neighbours with Grynspan's Costa Rica, and they get on fine, but every neighbour occasionally uses the leaf-blower too early, right?
Or maybe (say) Somalia, Congo, or Liberia voted against Grynspan out of solidarity with the Caribbean, which has never held the top job. Which brings us to...
Guyana's Rodrigues, who pulled 9 votes (but two 'discourages'), an impressive haul given she only just Hail Maryed herself into this race last month. She might be the ultimate Matt Damon candidate: well regarded for her hyper-effective style as UN ambassador, but without some of the polarising baggage of her bigger rivals.
Those two votes against her? Our money is (sorry) on Panama and Colombia, protecting Latin America’s traditional weight over the Caribbean. Given the scale of US investment in Guyana’s energy sector, and related shows of US military support, it’s possible she also copped strays from rival Russia and/or China.
And then limping into third place is Argentina's Grossi, the erstwhile frontrunner who only got seven votes, but two discourages. And as we've flagged before, and notwithstanding the remarkable work he’s done to keep a Russian-occupied nuclear plant in Ukraine from disaster, there's a real risk these are vetoes by China and/or Russia. Why? It’s possible they’re both still smarting at the way he blew the whistle on Iran's secretive build-up of near-weapons-grade uranium (a whistle the US and Israel then cited when hitting Iran's nuclear sites).
The rest? Three should probably bow out: Senegal's Sall (7 discourages!), Chile's Bachelet (5!), and Uganda's Otunnu (5! And yes, the same guy of 1981 straw poll fame). Ecuador's Espinosa got two mystery discourages, but might stick around in hopes she can come through the middle as a consensus candidate later.
Speaking of later... over the coming weeks, the Council will start making those powerful P5 cast their votes via red paper. That way we'll start to know which of these 'discourage' votes really risk being deal-breakers, until we get our Matt Damon.
And... that's why we're frothing.
Intrigue’s Take
Whoever eventually emerges as winner of this opaque beauty contest inherits…
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Sound even smarter:
Besides the big 5, the 10 other elected UN Security Council members include (until Dec 31) Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, Somalia, plus (for a year longer) Bahrain, Colombia, DR Congo, Latvia, and Liberia.
If you want to nerd-out on the full results (e = ‘encourage’, d = ‘discourage’ and n = ‘no opinion’: 🇨🇷 Grynspan (10 e, 1 d, 4 n); 🇬🇾 Rodrigues (9 e, 2 d, 4 n); 🇦🇷 Grossi (7 e, 2 d, 6 n); 🇨🇱 Bachelet (6 e, 5 d, 4 n); 🇸🇳 Sall (6 e, 7 d, 2 n); 🇪🇨 Espinosa (5 e, 2 d, 8 n); and 🇺🇬 Otunnu (2 e, 5 d, 8 n).
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇪🇸 SPAIN — Ceuta surge.
Prime Minister Sánchez is — along with border reinforcements — due in Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta today (Friday) after 49,000 undocumented migrants suddenly swam across from neighbouring Morocco — up to 15 died en route. Italy’s Meloni is now mulling the possibility of limiting arrivals from Spain unless Sánchez can get the situation under control. (El País)
Comment: Once the dust settles, the 84,000 residents of Ceuta (not to mention broader Spain) will want to understand what just happened. The interior ministry is accusing human traffickers of exploiting a recent court decision preventing immediate returns to Morocco; plus Madrid had just received ~1.2 million responses to Sánchez’s offer of legal status (though only for those already in Spain before 2026). Morocco also has a history (eg 2021) of relaxing border controls as political retaliation, and sure enough, Sánchez was only just next door buttering up Morocco’s arch-rival Algeria, though Madrid is insisting Morocco is cooperating. Either way, it’s ammo for Sánchez’s conservative opposition.
🇨🇭 SWITZERLAND — Europe draws a line.
All 55 European soccer football associations have now unanimously agreed to boycott FIFA events if Gianni Infantino pushes ahead with his polarising plan to sell parts of the World Cup to private investors. It comes as the Asian Football Confederation and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF) likewise come out against the Infantino plan. (ESPN)
Comment: It’s hard to see how his plan for the world’s biggest sporting event survives in the face of a full boycott by Europe, heart of the sport’s history, talent, and cash. But Infantino is vowing to press on, which might be why we just profiled him as arguably the world’s most hated man.
🇯🇵 JAPAN — Backup capital city?
Cities across Japan are competing to become the official ‘backup capital’ in case Tokyo ever gets knocked out by a major disaster. (Japan Today)
Comment: It’s not only about the glory and prestige. The new secondary capital law also pledges to create a second economic engine, though delivering that will be far tougher than winning the title.
🇵🇱 POLAND — Russian missile hits Poland?
Polish authorities believe the explosion that left a 10m (32ft) crater deep into Polish territory was a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile that crossed into Polish airspace during Putin’s latest attacks on Ukrainian cities. (EuroNews)
Comment: Coming after last year’s big drone incursion into Poland, this latest missile incident raises familiar questions about NATO’s unity and preparedness, which might’ve (again) been Putin’s aim all along.
🇨🇲 CAMEROON — Where’s the president?
Folks are starting to think President Biya’s “brief” Swiss vacation might be a cover-up for something else, with the 93-year-old leader now missing for more than 50 days. The government has banned speculation, but we’ll gladly speculate that maybe he’s there for medical reasons. (Guardian)
Comment: He’s got a record of lengthy vacations in Switzerland, hence netizens dubbing him their ‘remote-work president’.
🇲🇲 MYANMAR — Sentences.
The ruling military junta has approved the death penalty for anyone caught using forced labour in the notorious cyber-scam hubs that’ve flourished in the country’s conflict zones. But before you nod in approval, the regime has also sentenced nine protestors to up to 37 years in prison for protesting the country’s recent sham elections. (Al Jazeera)
🇨🇱 CHILE — Killer, caught at last.
After three years on the run, police have apprehended Nelson Haase, a former military officer convicted in 2023 over the 1973 murder of folk singer Victor Jara. Pro-Pinochet figures killed Jara for his opposition to the general, shortly after he seized power via a coup. (CBS)
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Hamas signals disarmament.
President Trump says he has reached an agreement with Hamas to disarm under his proposed Board of Peace initiative. Under the plan, Israel would withdraw from Gaza. (BBC)
Comment: Call us sceptical, but both positions (Hamas disarms, Israel withdraws) appear to require significantly more goodwill and trust than currently exists between the two parties.
Extra Intrigue
In other embassy-related news…
The 🇺🇸 US is going ahead with plans to reopen its embassy in strategically-located Libya after 14 years of rivals like Russia seeking to fill the vacuum.
🇨🇦 Canadian authorities are investigating after someone opened fire outside the US consulate in Toronto for the second time this year.
🇧🇾 Belarus’s planned embassy in fellow Russian ally Pyongyang is expected to open next month.
And… 🇨🇴 Colombia’s right-populist president-elect has announced he’s closing 14 embassies, including in ideological rivals like Cuba and Nicaragua.
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Snafu of the day
Credits: Emily Bass via Substack.
Everyone makes mistakes, including us, though ours are hopefully more because we’re rushing each day to pour our piping hot takes directly into your inbox.
But with that disclaimer out of the way, notice anything weird about the infographic above? No, not the font choice, nor the criminally pale world map.
The slide, part of a US State Department presentation at the AIDS 2026 conference in Rio de Janeiro, is actually wrong on many levels:
The colours don’t match their country or label shades (forgivable)
The labels are incorrect (since when was the Ivory Coast landlocked?), and
Some borders are just… made up, Berlin Conference style. Eg, there is no country shaped like that “Malawi” above.
The obvious explanation is this map is probably AI-generated, hence the whole ‘drew-this-while-on-shrooms’ vibe. But that’s no excuse: nobody thought to check the deck before projecting it before the world’s health envoys?
The US State Department says it takes full accountability for the mistake, but then in the same breath blames an unnamed team member for a last-minute slide change. It’s probably also not a good look after shrinking the US diplomatic corps by 20%…
Friday’s quiz
Yesterday was the International Day of Friendship.