Today’s briefing:
— The Trump-Xi summit in 4 lines
— Who’s lying here?
— A chocolate company did what?!
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Having previously worked behind the scenes on events like the Trump-Xi summit that just wrapped in Beijing, I still find it a little wild to reconcile all the public toasts with the games in the shadows:
You can bet the hosts have rigged every nook (and probably cranny) with hidden cameras, mics, gadgets you wouldn’t believe, plus a honey-trap or two, and…
The visitors will have used burner phones, installed a SCIF in the president’s suite (for secure chats), and maybe even issued the same warning once infamously delivered to a British PM: get dressed under the sheets rather than on-camera?
And yet maybe that uneasy balance — public smiles vs private paranoia — is a pretty, pretty, pretty good distillation of the current state of US-China ties, too.
Number of the day
2027
That’s when the UAE is hoping its newly announced West-East pipeline will come online, doubling the amount of Emirati oil already bypassing Hormuz.
That’s what Xi said.
After getting the full imperial treatment — cheering kids with US flags, a feast in the Great Hall, and the People's Liberation Army band playing a traditional rendition of… The Village People’s YMCA — President Trump is now aboard Air Force One en route back stateside.
So... was the visit a success? Here are the four key quotes you need, starting with...
"The Taiwan question is the most important issue... if not handled properly, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts" — Xi
That's apparently (per Beijing) how President Xi opened his first closed-door chat with Trump Thursday, sprinkling it with some classic red-line language that Taiwanese independence and peace go together like fire and water (missed opportunity to slip in Rob Schneider's "lamb and tuna fish" line).
Our take? Xi was sending a blunt if familiar message: his top priority isn't trade or Iran, but Taiwan. Trump's public response? Something relatively rare for him: silence. Marco Rubio later clarified that “the US position on Taiwan has not changed.”
So what's going on? DC probably saw that combo of presidential silence + ministerial affirmation as the best way to preserve America's "strategic ambiguity"* on Taiwan without torpedoing broader ties. Plus it's important to see that silence in the context of Trump's actions, authorising more arms sales to Taiwan than any US president in history.
“We’re going to have a fantastic future together" — Trump
Interestingly, Xi responded to that classic Trump line with “we must make it work and never mess it up” — pragmatic, if anxious? Later, Xi’s foreign ministry and state outlets painted a three-year future of US-China ties being "constructive, strategic, and stable".
Our take? That last word (stable) has long been Xi's priority, both generally because authoritarians abhor unpredictability, but also specifically because Xi wants breathing-room to i) get tech self-reliant, ii) address his economic challenges, and iii) shape events around Taiwan. And our sense is Trump also prefers stability right now, for surprisingly similar reasons (particularly amid the Iran war).
"He’s going to order 200 jets… that’s a big thing” — Trump
We always flagged this summit might produce a 'Boeings, beef, and beans' headline that Trump could sell ahead of the US midterms, and that's how it's shaping up.
But how did Boeing's share price react to this '200 jets' news? With a 5% drop! Why? Compare that 200 haul to...
a) competitors: France's Macron left China with an order for 300 in 2019, but also...
b) expectations: insiders had hinted at something closer to 400 or even 500 jets!
There are similar mixed feelings around the US approving advanced Nvidia H200 sales to ten of China’s big AI labs — a move both sides are awkwardly framing as a concession, in part because on both sides again, security hawks hate it, while the firms need it.
Our take? To be clear, China’s first major Boeing order in nearly a decade is clearly some kind of win, but still not super helpful in any "sell the news" play.
As for the broader trade war? Diplomacy 101 says if you can't fix the problem, announce a new process to keep talking about it: so they’ve revealed a new 'Board of Trade’ paired with a 'Board of Investment'. To put it another way? The tactical truce continues.
“China will not provide military equipment to Iran… and is willing to help broker an end to the war” — Trump
That's Trump summarising what he framed as Xi's views, before the White House later sprinkled more spice, reporting that a) “both countries agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon”, and b) Xi opposed “any effort to charge a toll” for transiting Hormuz!
As for China's readout? It merely notes the two "exchanged views on the Middle East"…
Our take? By staying quiet on Iran, Xi is almost mirroring Trump’s stance on Taiwan — and in both cases, that silence is partly about controlling the narrative back home: look strong on your priorities (Taiwan for Xi, Iran for Trump), without looking weak on anything secondary (Iran for Xi, and Taiwan relatively for Trump).
But if true, this 'no nukes or Hormuz toll' alignment suggests some basic agreement on the endgame for Iran, weakening the regime’s cards — ie, even Iran’s top (and almost only) oil customer doesn’t want the mullahs getting nukes or tolling Hormuz.
Though… semi-shielded by China’s own energy diversification and epic oil reserves, Xi still fundamentally sees Iran as more Trump's problem.
Intrigue’s Take
For a system as opaque and rigid as China’s, there’s naturally a cottage industry that parses every little visit detail: eg, the fact China sent its most senior-ever tarmac greeter (VP Han Zheng). But there’s also really nothing surprising about China a) playing to Trump’s eye for pageantry, nor b) signalling the importance Xi places on his visit.
Rather, any value out of this summit is in the bigger picture. And after months of protracted Bessent-He talks, this was never going to deliver a grand bargain to resolve their underlying issues, whether China’s overcapacity, their mutual supply entanglements, the status of Taiwan, or their broader race to reshape their regions if not our world.
As worthwhile as any superpower summit might be, this one was really only about managing — not resolving — the structural problems at the heart of US-China ties.
Meanwhile, the bigger game remains whether (and if so, how) these two powers might manage to compete on this planet without breaking it. And rather than some grand bargain or catastrophic war, history might just reveal the answer via endless truce extensions and tweaks, with this visit yet another dot in some painting we can’t yet see.
Sound even smarter:
*America’s ‘strategic ambiguity’ (refusing to clarify if the US would help defend Taiwan) aims to preserve the fragile status quo by deterring both a) Taiwan from declaring independence (triggering an invasion), and b) deterring China from invading (because maybe the US steps in).
If you’d like to dive deeper on Taiwan, check out our special edition on the fraught history, plus the briefing we prepared on China’s legal claims.
In the final hours of Trump’s Beijing visit, Putin announced he’ll soon visit China. That timing was likely to a) steal Trump’s thunder, and b) reiterate that the China-Russia ‘no limits’ partnership endures, whether Trump comes or goes.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — Here we go (again).
Another day, another “PM Starmer under pressure!” headline: now a young Labour MP is resigning so that popular Manchester mayor Andy Burnham can run for his seat then challenge Starmer for leadership of not just the party, but the nation. Meanwhile, a tax probe has cleared Starmer’s former deputy Angela Rayner of wrongdoing, meaning she could also challenge Starmer for the top job. (Politico)
Comment: Merits aside, it’s more demand on bandwidth the Brits can’t spare.
🇸🇧 SOLOMON ISLANDS — New leader, who dis?
Perennial opposition figure Matthew Wale has emerged as the new prime minister, a week after his predecessor fell in a no-confidence vote. Wale has previously pledged to publish — though not revoke — the secret 2022 security pact with China. (ABC)
Comment: His seemingly moderating approach to China partly reflects a more practical approach to local coalition-building, essential to any local PM’s survival.
🇹🇯 TAJIKISTAN - Good neighbours.
Just prior to Trump’s visit, Tajikistan’s President Rahmon appeared in Beijing to sign a high-level Treaty on Permanent Good-Neighborliness. (CGTN)
Comment: The move cements China’s growing dominance in Tajikistan (replacing Russia), and adds another brick to Beijing’s wall of partnerships across Central Asia.
🇱🇻 LATVIA - PM resigns.
The centre-right PM Silina has stepped down amid a political crisis triggered by wayward Ukrainian drones crashing into Latvian territory — she had fired her defence minister, prompting his Progressive party to pull its support. (BBC)
Comment: The fallout seems less about the drones, and more around the government’s failure to anticipate risks and warn residents.
🇦🇪 UAE - Who’s lying?
The UAE is flatly denying a statement from Netanyahu’s office that the Israeli PM secretly met the UAE’s president (MBZ) in the UAE at the height of the Iran war — a chat Israel said delivered an unspecified “historic breakthrough.” (Bloomberg $)
Comment: Someone’s fibbing, and it’s more likely the Emiratis here: they’re touchy about their Israel ties not just at home or in this region, but at this moment (Gaza, Iran). The more interesting question is why Israel went public: sensing Emirati hedging as the war drags on, Netanyahu probably sought to impose costs on anyone wanting it both ways. Regardless, it all exposes the limits of the Israel-Emirati rapprochement.
🇳🇮 NICARAGUA - Group project.
Russia’s Putin has signed into law a military cooperation pact with Nicaragua, promising joint training and intelligence sharing. (Americas Quarterly)
Comment: Putin is signalling that if the US meddles near Russia, Russia will meddle near the US. As for Nicaragua? One of the region’s few remaining leftist autocrats, Ortega is probably hoping to strengthen his hand before DC shifts its sights his way.
🇮🇳 INDIA - Sunken ship.
Delhi has condemned the sinking of an Indian-flagged wooden cargo ship off Oman, though has stopped short of naming names. (Independent)
Comment: The location, method (drone), and timing hint at Iranian-backed proxies.
Extra Intrigue
Three stories we couldn’t shoehorn in this week 👠
Ukrainian authorities have detained Zelensky’s former top aide Andriy Yermak on allegations around the laundering of $10.5M.
Palaeontologists have dug up a new species of dinosaur in Thailand, the largest ever found in Southeast Asia.
The price of fibre optic cable is soaring amid data centre and wartime demand.
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Court case of the day
Credits: Milka.
Chocolate is a controversial topic. Proclaim boldly (if factually) that hazelnut milk is best, and you’ll get aggressively corrected about the health benefits of the 99% cacao extra dark stuff that tastes like unsweetened regret wrapped in tree bark.
But this time, the controversy is playing out in the courts, because a judge in Germany (where else?) has ruled that Swiss-born / German-made / US-owned giant Milka misled consumers by sneakily reducing the size of its classic bars! Better choco-late than never? (we are so, so sorry about that pun)
Friday Quiz
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