Today’s briefing:
— The Xi-Putin summit: who wants what
— Something’s brewing in the Baltics
— Thanks a latte, Korea
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. There are some wild tales out there about how a diplomacy career can chase us into the next life. Here’s mine:
Early in my career, I ended up visiting a remarkable orphanage our embassy was supporting. Among the kids there was a teenager who quickly stood out with his perfect English, his sharp wit, and his easy charm that almost made you forget he’d spent virtually his entire life in this place. He was approaching his final year of high school, and I remember simultaneously hoping yet knowing this guy would find his way.
Fast-forward 15 years, and I’m now both an ex-diplomat and a new-ish dad, living 13,000km (8,000mi) away and pushing my young girls on the swing at our local park. Another father arrives with his own daughter, and we’re too busy to give the nod of dad-respect until I glimpse his face and do a double-take. The years melt away.
I walk over and ask, “do you remember me?”
He flashes a familiar grin, and simply says “Jeremy”.
These kinds of true tales give me hope that there’s some meaning to the madness of our world, particularly as we explore today’s Putin-Xi summit in Beijing.
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Title of the day
‘Taiwan Travelogue’
That’s the name of this year’s International Booker Prize winner, written by Taiwanese author Yang Shuang-zi and translator Lin King, as a kind of long-lost culinary tour of Japanese-occupied Taiwan.
Come visit, Xi said. It’ll be fun, Xi said.
Sometimes when two world leaders visit you back-to-back, the timing is mere coincidence.
Other times, one leader is suddenly showing up after the other, like the ex who heard you had company.
Today's Putin-Xi summit in Beijing falls more into category two: Putin is now paying his 25th visit to China, theoretically to mark the anniversary of the big 2001 Sino-Russia treaty.
But that 'theoretically' is doing some heavy lifting, so let's look at what these two frenemies really want, starting with...
What Putin wants:
With Putin having burnt his economy, demographics, and global standing in a failing attempt to invade his smaller neighbour, he's now realistically the junior partner in what the two infamously described as a 'no-limits' friendship shortly before Putin invaded.
So it's realistically Putin now landing in Beijing with the longer list of asks, starting with...
Reassurance: he wants visible reassurance that any Trump-Xi thaw doesn't sideline him — that "look at my powerful friends" signal is useful at home, in Ukraine, across the West, and beyond. But he also wants specific reassurance on anything Xi and Trump touched on Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, and beyond — eg, Beijing denies reports Xi said Putin might regret Ukraine. Putin also needs...
Reinforcement: he’s already had China’s steady diplomatic cover, flows of dual-use tech, and machine tools that've helped Putin's war machine keep humming amid Western sanctions. There are also now breaking reports China has covertly trained Russian troops on drone tech. And yet Putin realistically now also needs...
Revenue: He’s dreamt of a massive Sino-Russia gas pipeline for decades, though only got his first Power of Siberia pipeline delivering gas to China in late 2019. Then once Europe went ~cold-turkey on Russian gas over Ukraine, Putin revived his Xi talks for a second pipeline to double sales asap.
And yet… Xi has been stiffing Putin on every term: price, financing, flexibility, and timeline. They just signed a non-binding MOU in September, and maybe the Hormuz crisis has forced a dash of flexibility from Xi. But even if the two sign an actual commercial contract this week, no new gas will flow until well into the 2030s, which is time Putin simply doesn't have.
So who does have time...?
What Xi wants:
Xi has already got something: Putin is now the third world leader to visit in a week, and the ~12th this year (#13 is Serbia next week). The optics of that alone already point to Xi’s "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation", back to the centre of the world after its century of humiliation by meddling powers.
But what does Xi specifically want from Putin...?
Balance: Xi wants to keep Putin usefully dependent as a strategic junior partner, but he needs to balance that against a) getting dragged into Putin's mess, and b) letting their 'no-limits' friendship poison Xi's attempt to stabilise US ties. Relatedly, Xi also wants...
Ballast: As diminished as Putin may be, he's still a major nuclear and naval player with a veto on the UN Security Council. So there's value in keeping him aligned with Xi's evolving vision for a post-US-led world order, whether that means joint statements, coordinated pushback, or symbolic support. But Xi clearly also wants...
Bargains: Xi is already getting Putin's initial Siberian gas at a ~38% discount to Europe, but he wants even steeper discounts via this planned new Power of Siberia 2: ie, closer to the subsidised prices Russians pay at home, approaching a ~50% discount on Power of Siberia 1, and a ~70% discount compared to Europe!
So Xi is really screwing Putin here, and it goes beyond energy: China now supplies ~57% of all Russia's imports (!), charging massive mark-ups on critical inputs Putin can’t get elsewhere: ball-bearing prices have doubled, while prices on some other sanctioned items (like fibre optics) have even quadrupled! Any local suppliers left? They get rinsed.
So to recap? Always applaud outstanding alliteration everywhere:
Putin needs reassurance, reinforcement, and revenue, while
Xi wants balance, ballast, and bargains.
Intrigue’s Take
[This Take will soon be for Insiders only!]
That final line above (of alliterative fame) also features two distinct verbs, and not by accident: Putin needs all those things, while Xi realistically just wants his things. That’s almost the definition of leverage right there.
So while one summit aim is clearly to reaffirm their ‘no limits’ friendship, you won’t need to look too hard to still see the same limits we’ve flagged all along: and they’re Xi’s limits, in the sense they’re pushing Sino-Russian ties to the kind of tributary diplomacy the world last saw during China’s Qing dynasty.
But they’re also Putin’s limits, in the sense that this entire relationship is only sustainable as long as he stays both weak enough to need Xi, but strong enough to still be useful to him. That sweet spot is what’ll keep guiding their mutual strategy for now.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇨🇦 CANADA — US suspends defence board.
DC says it’s pausing the oldest formal Canada-US defence advisory body (founded in 1940), arguing Canada isn’t walking its defence talk. (Elbridge Colby via X)
Comment: The body (PJBD) is pretty ceremonial these days, with real cooperation happening via NORAD. So it’s a bit of political theatre to send a signal amid conflicting claims whether Canada has really hit the 2% defence spending threshold. Still, it’s a signal that’ll only fuel Canadian animosity towards Trump 2.0.
🇮🇷 IRAN — Seriously?
The NYT is reporting that the original US-Israeli war-plan was to liberate hardline former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from house arrest in Tehran, then install him as Iran’s new leader! Instead, airstrikes just injured him (or worse). (NYT $)
Comment: It’s really hard to understand what the US or Israel saw in a Holocaust-denier who famously and repeatedly yearned for Israel’s complete annihilation. The report claims Ahmadinejad himself was in on the plan, which *maybe* offers a *hint* of what’s going on: intelligence agencies sometimes seed stories in hopes of triggering or exacerbating regime infighting.
🇹🇭 THAILAND — No more visas.
The Thai government is cancelling a scheme that allowed tourists from over 90 countries to visit visa-free for up to 60 days, citing crime and insecurity. (CNN)
Comment: It was a post-Covid idea, but Thailand might be learning a lesson Bali has already publicly bemoaned: quantity of visitors is one thing, but quality matters too.
🇨🇿 CZECH REPUBLIC — Guestlist fight.
President Pavel and Prime Minister Babiš are in a public spat over who gets to represent the Czech Republic at July’s NATO meeting in Turkey. (Politico)
Comment: It’s all exposing not just the republic’s NATO faultline (pro-West Pavel vs populist Babiš), but also a constitutional one: while the president has a formal role abroad, it’s the PM who controls the purse-strings and accreditation.
🇮🇩 INDONESIA — Export supervision.
Indonesia is planning a new state agency to oversee commodity exports. (Bloomberg $)
Comment: Jakarta has a few inter-related aims here: first, it’s about cracking down on tax evasion; second, it’s about faster and fuller repatriation of export dollars to defend reserves and stabilise the plunging rupiah; but third, it’s also Prabowo centralising power (the new agency will sit under the president’s new sovereign wealth fund). Relatedly, a spicy letter by China’s local business chamber on the difficulty of doing business has now triggered a ministerial meeting with China’s local ambassador.
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA — What’s he playing at?
The Baltics keep reporting Ukrainian drones (presumably jammed) in their airspace: last week it was Latvia, yesterday it was Estonia, and today it’s been Lithuania. (LRT)
Comment: Why would Putin divert jammed Ukrainian drones towards these NATO and EU members? It’s a way to a) increase the costs of war on Ukraine’s partners, b) divide and destabilise the West, and c) potentially build pretext for some kind of escalation. It’s already working, with one government (Latvia) collapsing last week.
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — Senior diplomat leaves post.
There’s fresh turmoil at the beleaguered UK embassy in DC, after its second-most senior diplomat, James Roscoe, abruptly left without explanation. Roscoe had served as interim ambassador after the sacking of Epstein associate Peter Mandelson. (Guardian)
🇰🇪 KENYA — Strike halted.
Transport workers have halted their two-day strike over high fuel costs, to instead resume talks with the government. Nairobi is racing to contain the fallout after initial protests left four dead. (Independent)
Comment: Local diesel prices are up ~50% in just two months, yet it’s interesting how quickly the government started offering price concessions once things got deadly. Nairobi blames prices on the Iran War, while the opposition blames elite profiteering, noting landlocked Uganda gets cheaper prices despite using Kenyan ports!
Extra Intrigue
Our commodities corner is back!
Oil: Following earlier US moves, the UK has issued waivers allowing the import of Russian diesel and jet fuel refined in third countries, in a bid to ease local prices.
Nickel: Canadian mining giant Sherritt is walking back last week’s decision to dissolve its assets (like nickel) in Cuba, seemingly shifting from sanctions panic to a wait-and-see approach amid the US-Cuba standoff.
Copper: Top copper producer Chile has lowered its 2026 output estimates by 2%, citing lower-grade ores and operational constraints. Not now, Chile!
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Snafu of the day
Credits: Starbucks Korea.
Here's a reminder why you should always check the calendar.
Starbucks South Korea has issued an apology (🇰🇷) and fired the boss after its new ‘Tank Day’ promotion for huge new tumblers (like a ‘tank’ of coffee) dropped… right on the 46th anniversary of Korea’s Gwangju Massacre! That’s when South Korea’s then-dictatorship used tanks to crush pro-democracy protesters.
It’s not entirely clear whether the coffee giant’s date-choice reflected rank incompetence or calibrated insensitivity (Korea’s Starbucks tycoon Chung Yong-jin has quite the history), but the furore quickly reached the desk of President Lee himself, lamenting how the campaign tarnished the memory of the protests. It’s now all escalating into a boycott.
Couldn’t Starbucks Korea just play it safe via a big Pumpkin Spice Latte promotion?
Today’s poll
Who benefits the most from Sino-Russia ties?
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think worker strikes will help balance out the AI revolution?
🤝 Yes, it'll force companies into compromise (30%)
💸 No, it'll speed up the move away from humans (69%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
💸 D: “Strikes only reaffirm tech moguls’ deep-seated belief that machines are more reliable than humans.”
🤝 A: “If there’s no peaceful ramp to balance, one will be made forcefully.”
✍️ K.J.M: “Machines do not have voting power, so the only saving grace for a unionized organized labour movement would be to protest publicly, letter writing campaigns, and forcing bureaucrats to listen to the voter base.”