Today’s briefing:
— The war’s 4 splits to watch
— The Brits have funny storm names
— A Japanese treasure revealed
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. As this Iran war drags on, keep an eye out for the critical “told you so” phase.
Maybe it’s silent, like that smug neighbour humming past in their solar-charged EV while you now fork over another crisp Benjamin to top up your Tahoe.
Or maybe it’s (ahem) your favourite ex-diplomat smugly pointing out that, a full two days before it became Friday’s headline, I was out there noting that if Iran is hitting CIA sites in Saudi Arabia, Putin is probably helping with the targeting.
Or maybe it’s the remarkable letter dunking on (and to!) The Wall Street Journal, arguing that the Pentagon’s Elbridge Colby was right all along for warning the US simply can’t sustain a multifront war.
Wherever this leads next, someone will have told you so. So let’s just brief you on the war’s four big splits to watch ahead, shall we?
Number of the day
22
That’s how many field training manoeuvres the US and South Korea will practice at this year’s joint military drills, down from 51 last year. Authorities have declined to confirm whether the pared-down drills are linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Day 10
That’s the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamanei
As this war enters its 10th day, here are four possible splits to watch, starting with...
US and Israel?
Another alliance wedge might've now emerged amid the weekend's devastating airstrikes on Iran's oil infrastructure, sparking massive fires, acid rain, and toxic smoke across Tehran.
The split? While the US was reportedly in the loop, it's still voicing shock at the scale of this escalation towards Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure. Why? It shifts local hardship from regime-blame to US/Israel-blame, potentially prolonging both the regime and war.
But it also hints at divergence in US-Israeli aims: the Israelis have always seen this regime (of "death to Israel" fame) as an existential threat, trumping any chaos or blowback.
Yet DC's aim has more been to a) de-fang Iran and normalise Israel so the US can pivot elsewhere; plus b) Trump is now describing November's mid-terms in existential terms. And neither aim now looks easy amid the world's biggest energy shock since ~1979.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vs the rest?
Meanwhile, the regime has now confirmed Khamenei Jr is Iran’s new supreme leader: pending any Israeli assassination, that’s a classic wartime signal of unity, continuity, and even defiance, though keep in mind there's always nuance beneath the surface.
First, it arguably proves IRGC supremacy rather than regime unity: by ramming through a mid-ranked cleric like Khamenei Jr, the IRGC has side-lined old-school regime powerbrokers like the Larijani brothers (natsec Ali and clerical Sadeq), and
Second, by ramming through the ayatollah’s son, the IRGC might've breached its own revolutionary taboo against the exact kind of monarchic succession it replaced, potentially undermining whatever popular legitimacy it still retains.
So maybe this move strengthens the regime. Or maybe not.
Oil vs water?
With crude now up almost 70% in less than two weeks, recording the biggest intra-day price surge in almost half a century, oil understandably dominates the headlines.
But another liquid is rattling the region, too: Saturday’s hit on Iran's Qeshm desalination plant prompted an Iranian hit on a water desal facility in Bahrain the very next day (then just hours ago, the Iranians hit Bahrain’s main oil refinery).
The point? It looks like asymmetrical warfare against soft, high-impact targets to (say) force Iran's regime to talk, or force Bahrain (home to the US Fifth Fleet) to pressure the US.
But that's ultra-high stakes in a region where desal provides nearly all drinking water — we’re talking 90% for Kuwait, 86% for Oman, and 70% for the Saudis, for example. So if this tit-for-tat continues, you're potentially looking at mass city evacuations.
Kurd vs Kharg?
Now that Trump has ruled out a CIA-backed Kurdish op amid Turkish anger (vindicating Kurdish doubts around US reliability btw), there's a vibe shift to a Kharg Island strategy instead. The aim of using ground troops to seize Iran’s oil export terminal would be to deliver a coup de grâce that strangles the regime's cashflow and forces its capitulation.
There've also been similar "victory raid" rumours of a possible special ops mission to secure Iran's uranium, likewise enabling President Trump to declare victory and get out.
But while there are influencers out there arguing that seizing Kharg would be easy, it's the holding part that matters — just 25km (15mi) off Iran’s coast, this island is within regime artillery, missile, drone, and fast-boat range. And even if you do hold, that escalation doesn’t necessarily solve the actual problem, which is that maritime insurers are spooked.
So sure, maybe this kind of raid goes to plan, ends the war, and unblocks Hormuz. Or maybe it becomes yet another Middle East casualty and escalation trap for the US.
Intrigue’s Take
With oil now going beyond $110 a barrel while the regime merely replaces Khamenei Sr with Khamenei Jr, it’s hard to see how exactly the war is going to plan at this point.
And to be clear, these surging oil prices reflect an optimistic timeframe for ending this war — take a look at crude oil futures and you’ll see December contracts are still in the $70s!
So maybe that brings us to one last thing: right now the visible spat in the US is more within the president’s base (Tucker vs broader MAGA), but keep an eye on if (say) top cabinet members start getting blamed for their advice or execution.
But in the meantime, the US is still staring it all down, while Iran’s missile and drone capabilities further degrade with each day.
Sound even smarter:
The US State Department has ordered non-emergency diplomatic staff to leave Saudi Arabia — it’s the war’s first mandatory order for US diplomats.
Following various rival Greek deployments, Turkey is now sending six F16 fighter jets and air defence systems to northern (aka Turkish) Cyprus.
G7 finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting today (Monday) to discuss a possible coordinated release of emergency oil reserves — US oil prices have already eased back below $100 on the news.
Meanwhile, fuel-saving policies are popping up across Asia, whether Bangladesh closing its universities, or the Philippines ordering officials to cut oil usage by 10%.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇯🇵 JAPAN — Crash.
It’s been a brutal market opening across Asia, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down ~6.5%, South Korea’s Kospi down 7%, and Australia’s ASX 200 down 3%. With crude prices blowing past $110, markets fear energy costs will hit growth, while key supply nodes are sounding the Hormuz alarm: eg, Japan’s Sumitomo chemical operations out of Singapore have reportedly declared force majeure, squeezing agricultural, mining, and other clients across the region. (NYT $)
Comment: We also wonder at what point the Gulf states will hit pause on their pledges to bankroll the data centre rollout across the US and beyond. Speaking of AI, this hydrocarbon chaos is all playing out against relentless AI developments — responding to the US economy shedding an unexpected 92,000 jobs in February, the White House’s Kevin Hassett framed it as a productivity win, though the share of that win going to workers is now at its lowest since records began (1940s).
🇨🇺 CUBA — Surprise deal?
US outlets are reporting DC and Havana could be on the cusp of announcing a big economic deal. Details and timing remain TBC, but rumours include an off-ramp for Cuba’s leader (Díaz-Canel) plus the Castro family getting to stay on the island, in return for deals on ports, energy, tourism, and maybe sanctions relief. (USA Today)
Comment: In addition to Cuba wanting to avoid a Maduro 2.0, we wonder whether the current blowback on one US priority (Iran) might make DC a little more flexible to secure another (Cuba). And… while we’re in Havana, last night’s 60 Minutes featured a CIA whistle-blower arguing the infamous Havana Syndrome symptoms hitting US spies and diplomats are the result of a directed energy weapon wielded by Russia’s notorious military intelligence Unit 29155.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Still on.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi has suggested President Trump’s upcoming visit to China is still scheduled for late March despite the conflict in the Middle East. (SCMP)
Comments: There’d been speculation the US hit on one of China’s oil suppliers could derail this big Trump-Xi summit, but it’s hard to turn down the power optics of a US president coming to you, plus ultimately Xi now prioritises stabilising US ties more than (say) dunking on US actions.
🇳🇵 NEPAL — New leadership.
Rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah looks set to become Nepal’s next prime minister after his centrist-populist party crushed last week’s general elections with the biggest majority since the country’s 1990s move to democracy. It’s a rejection of the establishment after last year’s mass Gen-Z-led protests. (Guardian)
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Shield of the Americas.
President Trump has hosted 12 Latin American leaders in Miami for his new security-led anti-drug trafficking initiative, ‘Shield of the Americas’. (The Hill)
Comments: Three things jumped out at us: first, the alignment of the guestlist (all right-leaning like Argentina’s Milei, Chile’s Kast, Ecuador’s Noboa, and El Salvador’s Bukele); second, the absence of Mexico, which Trump described as the region’s cartel epicentre; and third, the classic restrained response from Mexico’s Sheinbaum (though some in her administration bristled at Trump omitting the role of US cash and arms).
🇮🇩 INDONESIA — Another social media ban.
Indonesia will ban social media for kids under 16 from 28 March. (DW)
Comments: Add Jakarta to the list of capitals now joining Australia to ban social media for kids, as governments move to reassert their sovereignty online.
🇨🇭 SWITZERLAND — Democracy manifest.
Swiss voters have passed measures to enshrine the right to cash in the country’s constitution, and to eliminate a tax structure that disadvantages working couples. Voters rejected measures to increase climate funding and reduce public broadcaster fees. (Swissinfo.ch)
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
India’s supreme court is threatening action after finding a lower court judge used fake AI-generated rulings when resolving a property dispute.
South Korea’s tax agency has apologised after inadvertently sharing the password to a stash of stolen cryptocurrency, which was swiftly then re-stolen.
The British meteorological service has unveiled some of the public’s storm name submissions, including Keir Stormer, David Blowy, and Dame Judy Drench.
A UK YouTuber has used 500 old vape batteries to power a small electric car.
And a US woman convicted of sneaking onto a NYC-Paris flight in 2024 has now been arrested for similarly sneaking over to Milan.
Mystery of the day
The submerged treasure chest in question. Credits: One Piece via YouTube.
It’s possible and even forgivable you’re not familiar with manga (Japanese comics) let alone One Piece, the best-selling manga in history: it follows the adventures of a pirate crew looking for the ultimate treasure (aka the One Piece).
Anyway, to celebrate selling 600 million copies, One Piece creator Eiichiro Oda just pulled a remarkable stunt, revealing the true identity of the elusive One Piece treasure on a piece of paper locked in a small treasure chest, only to yeet it into the depths of the ocean.
Why? The idea was to keep the truth “far beyond anyone’s reach”, but fans have analysed the video for clues to geolocate the chest, including…
The cameo by a Japanese Coast Guard vessel
The sun’s position plus a timestamp
The absence of any visible coastline when panning southwest, and
Oda’s stated depth of 651m (2,100ft).
Those and other clues have left Suruga Bay (near Tokyo) as a top fan theory.
Today’s poll
What do you think it'll take for Trump to declare victory and head home?
Last Thursday’s poll: Which incident do you think raises the temperature most?
🇱🇰 Sinking the Iranian ship near Sri Lanka (20%)
🇹🇷 Iranian missile approaching Turkey (64%)
🇦🇿 Iranian drones hitting Azerbaijan airport (12%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
🇹🇷 E.W: “Evoking NATO genuinely makes this World War III.”
🇱🇰 S: “Hitting targets so far out of the theatre feels like it broadens the scope of the war.”
✍️ W.K: “Blocking the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz will raise the temperature most. Nothing else even comes close.”