Today’s briefing:
— Guess who wants to run the UN
— Guess who’s hiring in Bógota
— Guess which brand just went black & white
Sponsored by:
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. I kicked off my career as a kind of Peace Corps volunteer with the UN, back when it was still basking in Kofi Annan’s afterglow.
Sure, I learned from some remarkable colleagues, like the kind and brilliant Solomon Islander from New York HQ who could soon be his country’s next PM (Peter Kenilorea Jr). But yikes, I also saw how the UN had the potential to suffer from humanity’s collective foibles as much as any shared strengths.
So with the post-WWII organisation now on the ropes, and a surprise fifth candidate just entering the race to become the next UN boss, it’s time we got you the latest, no?
Date of the day
August 2nd
That’s when Alaska’s northernmost town of Utqiagvik will next see a sunset, as it kicks off 84 days of non-stop sun through the summer.
Who you gonna call?
L-R: Grossi, Grynspan, Bachelet, Sall, Espinosa
Given the state of both the world (most conflicts since WWII), and the UN (risking financial collapse), you might find it surprising there are now folks fighting to be the next UN boss — it’s almost giving “let me steer the Titanic” vibes.
But Portugal's Antonio Guterres wraps his tenure on Dec 31st, so let’s look at who’s next?
First, how it works: the real game happens at the UN’s all-powerful 15-member Security Council, which typically holds secret straw-polls from July to see who clears the hurdle: nine votes in favour, zero vetoes from the permanent five (aka the ‘P5’: 🇺🇸, 🇬🇧, 🇫🇷, 🇨🇳, 🇷🇺).
The Security Council then makes a ✌️recommendation✌️ by October, for the General Assembly to rubber-stamp. The new Titanic UN captain then starts on January 1st.
So let's start with the front-runner, which is still…
🇦🇷 Rafael Grossi (~49% prediction market odds)
Argentina's 65-year-old career diplomat is no stranger to world's-toughest-jobs. Not because he was ever a crab fisherman in Alaska, but because he’s helmed the UN nuclear watchdog (IAEA) since 2019, and won unanimous re-election in 2023.
Pros
The guy has a PhD, speaks seven (7!) languages, and has spent ~40 years on this stuff. He's clearly qualified. Annoyingly so, in fact. But more importantly, his nuclear role and relentless shuttle diplomacy means he's spent years building trust with the P5 who'll realistically decide his fate. But that also brings...
Cons
His hard (if accurate) line on Iran’s nuclear program — which fed into last year’s US-Israeli strikes — has drawn criticism from Russia and China, though more directed at alleged Western scheming rather than Grossi himself. But who else is there...?
🇨🇷 Rebeca Grynspan (21%)
Costa Rica's 70-year-old ex-veep (1994-98) has stepped aside from running UNCTAD (helping poorer economies trade) to focus on her campaign, which brings us to her...
Pros
While there've been grumbles about Grossi juggling his campaign and nuke duties, Grynspan is now all-in. And while she’s also from Latin America (which by rotating tradition would get the next UN boss), Grynspan has another advantage: she's a woman.
Now, don't write us angry letters — we're just pointing out that this is a real factor for some capitals flagging it's time the UN had its first female leader. But then there's the...
Cons
Some argue the world needs a crisis-hardened operator like Grossi, though she really just needs none of the P5 to hate her, so her economist CV could be a plus! But what about…
🇨🇱 Michelle Bachelet (15%)
Chile's 74-year-old two-time president (2006-10 and 2014-18) has quite the backstory, surviving torture during Chile's Pinochet era, plus a post-presidency career running two UN agencies (Women, Human Rights). So she's clearly got major...
Pros
As Latin America's only ex-president in the mix, she brings genuine gravitas and speaks five (5!) languages, while also appealing strongly to the Global South. But...
Cons
On her final day in office, she dropped a high-stakes UN Human rights report that…
Flagged China might’ve committed crimes against humanity in Xinjiang 🔥, but…
The report didn’t fully contest China’s “vocational” framing of what the West saw as forced Uyghur internment camps 🔥.
Or to put it another way, in trying to please everyone, maybe Bachelet pleased no-one. To cap it off, her own country's new conservative leader (Kast) just yoinked support for the left-leaning Bachelet, who’s also facing similar opposition among US senators.
So that takes us to...
🇸🇳 Macky Sall (10%)
Senegal's 64-year-old ex-leader (2012-24) is a wild-card.
Pros
His deep experience, five (!) languages, and regional heft could appeal to those wanting stronger and steadier Global South representation, but...
Cons
He fails both the LatAm and gender hurdles, and while his Burundi backing (African Union chair) was meant as a tactical workaround to seek African legitimacy, it just ended up highlighting divisions instead — 20+ African nations have come out against! Oops.
So let's wrap with...
🇪🇨 Maria Fernanda Espinosa (5%)
Ecuador's ex-minister of foreign affairs (2007-08, 2018-18) and defence (2012-14) only just entered the race Tuesday via a nomination lodged by Antigua and Barbuda!
Pros?
As her country's first female UN ambassador (2008-09) and her region’s first female UN General Assembly president (2018-19), she clears key hurdles and has UN cred, but her biggest strength might just be the fact she's a relatively fresh face (61) with less baggage.
Cons
It's a late run, so she could pull a Stephen Bradbury (the Aussie ice-skater who won after the others fell), but it also means she's now got the least momentum and visibility.
The other thing is her association with Ecuador's polarising leftist ex-leader (Correa), which could be a problem for Trump 2.0 and even conservative Ecuador. That’d be one reason why she got nominated instead by Antigua, which loves her small state advocacy.
And... that's a wrap!
Intrigue’s Take
In one sense, there's nothing new above — the very first UN boss (Lie) famously described this as "the most impossible job on Earth". And that was when handing the reins to his successor (Hammarskjöld), who himself famously quipped that the UN was never created to get us to heaven, but to save us from hell.
Even the idea of a winner literally coming down to who's hated the least? Not new. Ask the producers of Love Island (zing 🥁).
Still, there are some novelties above: our polarised world means the Bradbury strategy could work (ie, a dark horse could win after the frontrunners get knocked out), but the opposite holds true too: ie, zero consensus. We've now seen it hobble the G20, APEC, COP, and beyond. There's no reason to expect the UN would be immune.
Sound even smarter:
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇲🇾 MALAYSIA - Jho Low wants a Trump pardon.
The fugitive financier at the heart of one of history’s biggest frauds (Malaysia’s 1MDB sovereign fund pillaging) has now formally applied for a US presidential pardon! He’s been on the run (likely in Shanghai) for a decade. (CNA)
Comment: Anyone who’s read Tom Wright’s brilliant ‘Billion Dollar Whale’ will know this guy belongs in jail, not on a sweetheart list circulating the White House.
🇲🇽 MEXICO - CIA’s cartel hit list?
CNN claims CIA operatives have directly participated in assassinations of mid-level cartel figures inside Mexico since last year, including a March car-bomb. (CNN)
Comment: What CNN describes here is classic deniable ops escalation in the drug war, usually calibrated to protect Mexico’s president from voter blowback. So the real question isn’t whether everyone’s furiously denying the story (they are), but whether (if true) it crosses Mexico’s secret red-lines around long-running US intel support.
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA - AI dividend for all?
An advisor to the Korean presidency has proposed instituting an AI profits tax to fund a national dividend and redistribute Korea’s epic chipmaking windfall. (Yahoo)
Comments: Korea’s government has distanced itself from the idea, but it feels like a straw in the wind — expect more capitals to follow, especially in election years.
🇨🇳 CHINA - Room for one more?
President Trump is now aboard Air Force One en route to his high-stakes summit with China’s Xi Jinping, a first since 2017. Interestingly, his accompanying phalanx of CEOs now includes Nvidia’s Jensen Huang after all — so either Bloomberg’s snub-scoop was wrong, or it prompted a last-minute White House rethink. (Guardian)
Comment: With Huang back in the mix, history might reveal a bit of tension between a) Treasury Secretary Bessent now personally vetting who gets to use Nvidia’s latest AI chips, versus b) Huang personally now hoping to sell more AI chips that China would presumably use to close the chip gap in the first place.
🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES - Hiding from the ICC.
A lawmaker has barricaded himself in Manila’s senate after police came to execute an International Criminal Court warrant over his alleged role in the deadly war on drugs waged by the former president, Rodrigo Duterte (now facing ICC charges in The Hague). (Al Jazeera)
🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION - Hit follow!
The powerful Council of the EU is planning on inviting influencers to cover its meetings in an effort to better connect Brussels with the people. (Politico)
🇳🇬 NIGERIA - Brain drain?
Nigeria has ranked third for outbound student mobility, with ~5% of all the world’s international students originating from Africa’s most populous nation. Only China (37%) and India (29%) send more abroad. (Punch)
Extra Intrigue
Intrigue’s jobs board is back
Low-Carbon Energy Division @ Ministry of Trade and Industry in Singapore
Policy Advisor @ The Royal Society in London
Finance Intern @ Red Bull in Bogotá, and obviously…
Secretary-General @ the United Nations in NYC (see above, hah).
Glow-down of the day
Credits: NHK.
In the latest confirmation that geopolitics ruins everything, Japan’s beloved snack giant Calbee has announced its iconic potato chips are getting a monochrome makeover!
Why? Switching to black-and-white, the company blames an unstable supply of ink and other packaging materials linked to the ongoing Hormuz deadlock in the Middle East.
So next time you want that late-night pack of Consommé Punch-flavoured crisps (sounds like someone spiked the vending machine but it’s a soup-style seasoning), don’t be alarmed if that 7/11 seems a little more drab than you remembered.
Today’s poll
Which UN Secretary-General candidate would you back?
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think it would take for countries to really work together?
🦠 Another pandemic (6%)
🌊 A natural disaster (8%)
🧑💼 A new generation of leaders (58%)
👽 A threat from Mars (24%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
🌊 D.S: “The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami saw a raft of countries work together to deal with a major catastrophe across several locations.”
🧑💼 A.P: “Sometimes all it takes is to find people unburdened by the long past to work towards the future.”