Today’s briefing:
— Ready, set, IPO
— Catastrophe in Nepal
— Syria goes contactless
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Ready, set, IPO
— Catastrophe in Nepal
— Syria goes contactless
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. There was once a little pre-schooler in post-war Korea called Jim Yong Kim, offering a dusty grin for the cameras when a World Bank delegation visited his village in the early 1960s. At the time, he says Korea was so poor, weak, and ruined, it didn’t even qualify for International Development Association (IDA) help — the lowest rung.
By the time South Korea did get IDA support, his family was moving to Iowa.
Now fast-forward half a century to 2012, and Jim ended up the president of the World Bank. I saw him speak at Milken in Beverly Hills a few years later, sharing the exact same pic from when the World Bank visited his childhood village.
His point? Within a couple of generations, Korea had become the rich home to ships, chips, and chaebol, while that 1960s impoverished pre-schooler was now running the World Bank.
He saw a similar future for Africa, and one of today’s big IPOs hints at it. Shall we read on?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
$18B
That’s how much Meta just agreed it’ll potentially pay to settle the landmark teen social media harm case launched by 29 US states (this deal covers 47). The pledge requires the tech giant to put guardrails on its platforms like Facebook and Instagram, including restricting how much time youths can spend scrolling content.
IP-Open for business.
Grab your pitchbooks and ring that bell Intriguer, because autumn is shaping up to be a wild season for public listings, starting with…
🇨🇳 Shein
If you thought Odysseus had a hard time actually getting where he wanted to go, wait till you hear about Shein.
Founded in 2008 by entrepreneur Xu Yangtian, China’s fast fashion giant has filed for a 1 September initial public offering in Hong Kong, where it’s hoping to raise a cool $1.8B at a~$25B valuation.
But this isn’t Shein’s first attempt. It’s not even Shein’s second!
In fact, the firm was planning a US debut back in 2023, but that broke at the seams like a $4.99 Shein polyester tuxedo, amid political pressure and forced labour jitters.
So Shein took its business to London for what seemed like the UK’s biggest-ever IPO. And much like Shein’s $8.70 leather jacket right out of the vacuum-sealed pack, it initially seemed like a great fit: support from lawmakers, the regulators, and even preliminary approval from the Financial Conduct Authority in 2025!
Buuuut the synthetic coating started to peel away once Beijing itself refused to bless the match, irked by the firm distancing itself from China, plus prospectus language that seemed to acknowledge Xinjiang suppliers needed “de-risking”.
And so it was back to square one — or Exchange Square in Hong Kong to be precise, where regulators are more forgiving and geopolitical headwinds more shielded.
But much like a $6.20 Shein hoodie that shrinks aggressively in the first wash, the firm’s valuation has now crumpled from its $100B peak in 2022 to today’s mere ~$25B. Why? The pandemic e-spending spree has tapered, Western markets are closing the de minimis tax loophole for small packages, competition from Temu has heated up (like that $5.80 fleece near an open flame), and consumer enthusiasm for fast fashion has cooled (like Shein’s $4.80 ‘thermal’ leggings in actual winter).
So are investors still hungry for Shein, or like that $8.99 Barbiecore pink mini, is it already out of fashion by the time it even arrives? We’ll know in September.
🇺🇸 Anthropic
Now over to the US, where AI darling Anthropic is gunning to dethrone SpaceX as the biggest IPO on record: $100B raise, $2T valuation (versus Elon’s $86B / $1.77T).
The pioneer is already printing $65B in annualised revenue, up 7x from last year yet somehow still a long way from a $2T market cap. It’s filling the gap with a pitch flagging its total addressable market could one day exceed… America’s entire GDP!
Fairy-tale or not, history’s biggest pure-AI listing is shaping up as a massive stress test: a soft landing risks whacking not only Anthropic’s big shareholders (think Amazon, Alphabet, Salesforce), but beyond — AI-exposed mega-caps now make up 40%+ of the S&P 500, and US stocks make up 70%+ of the MSCI World.
Maybe that’s why rival OpenAI — regulatory paperwork loaded — is happy to let someone else test the waters first? The formal investor roadshow is due imminently.
🇳🇬 Dangote Refinery
Now let’s wrap in Nigeria, where an oil refinery is planning to go public as soon as October. But as accurate as that opener is, it’s also woefully incomplete because…
The Lagos asset is already Africa’s largest crude oil processing plant
Once expanded, it’ll be the world’s largest single-train refinery, and
The ~$50B targeted valuation will eclipse every single publicly traded Sub-Saharan company outside South Africa… combined.
But even that doesn’t quite capture it: the asset is majority owned by Africa’s richest man (the eponymous Mr Dangote), who’s already helped Nigeria (an OPEC member) 7x its seaborne oil shipments since 2023! This is single-handedly helping curb the fuel-import forex drain on Africa’s most populous nation, providing the kind of macro stability you need to finance long-term development.
And he’s planning to take this show on the road, via a near-identical refinery on Kenya’s coast, offering East African governments a collective 30% stake. In addition to stumping up some cash, those capitals also commit to buying the plant’s offtake, and potentially to reject the dumping of cheap energy imports from Russia.
There are risks of course — macro, political, environmental, and project blowouts.
But the whole thing is sparking hopes of an East Asian-style development model gaining momentum across Africa: protect, scale, export, then recycle those profits into a new wave of national champions and productive assets.
Three very different bets, in three very different sectors, on three very different continents. The market gets to vote from next month.
Intrigue’s Take
Kim’s slide from Jeremy’s intro up above is really a dare…
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Intrigue’s Take
Kim’s slide from Jeremy’s intro up above is really a dare: if Korea could go from “not even IDA” to ships and chips in a generation, why see Africa differently?
And this autumn’s three big listings are arguably three different answers: Shein shows what happens when that dare crashes into rival national interests: New York says no, Beijing says no (after London says maybe), so you end up with a Hong Kong listing consolation prize at a 75% valuation discount.
Anthropic suggests maybe rich countries can keep pulling another Korea, if (yes if) enough value creation has now migrated out of the physical realm and into frontier algorithms whose role and significance we’re still fumbling through future darkness to really understand.
It’s really Dangote that sees value in Korea’s original move: pick strategic industries, wall off the dumped imports, let a national champion scale, bank the forex you’ve long burned on foreign products, then recycle it all into the next asset, and the next.
So maybe whether you’re selling cheap hoodies, pricey frontier code, or local refined diesel, your balance sheet is only ever as strong as the underlying statecraft?
Sound even smarter:
Since we’re talking IPOs… shares in China’s Unitree, a leading humanoid robot maker, slumped 45% just days after its stellar IPO saw them surge 460%. We wrote about China’s soaring robotics sector here.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇳🇵 NEPAL — Himalayan disaster.
The shocking flash floods along the Nepal-Tibet border seem to be the result of an ice-rock avalanche that dammed a Himalayan river, then failed — sending a wall of water that’s left at least 177 dead and 1,500 missing. (Stuff)
Comment: This disaster will ripple globally, not just because of the wild footage, nor the structural drivers (warmer temps have shrunk Nepal’s ice coverage by a third in three decades), but also the victims: the area was packed with international pilgrims (Hindus, Buddhists, Jains, and Bon) headed to the sacred Mount Kailash.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Nvidia’s bumper quarter.
Nvidia just posted a blowout $96B for Q2 and are guiding $108B for Q3, while forecasting ~70% sales growth next year. Flush with cash, reports then emerged it’s looking to buy AI model hub Hugging Face for $13B. (Reuters)
Comment: By acquiring the primary platform where developers share, host, and test open-source models, Nvidia is trying to further guarantee that its chips remain the default standard for the broader ecosystem. Meanwhile, those sales numbers are nicely timed for Anthropic’s impending IPO, potentially easing fears of any drop in momentum.
🇮🇸 ICELAND — Will EU join?
Icelanders will head to the polls on Saturday to vote on whether they’d like to resume negotiations to join the European Union after fishing disagreements left talks on ice for over a decade. Polls suggest a slight advantage for the 'Yes ' camp. (Arctic Today)
Comment: Supporters argue a Yes doesn’t mean Iceland has to join the EU, but signals openness to at least have the conversation. They also point out the economic and security benefits, particularly given Iceland doesn’t have a military and NATO guarantees feel less credible under Trump 2.0. But critics who oppose EU membership point to a loss of sovereignty on critical issues such as fishing, a central part of Icelandic life and culture.
🇻🇳 VIETNAM — The new surplus king.
Vietnam has officially dethroned China, Mexico, and Taiwan to record the world’s largest goods trade surplus with the United States. (The Herald Business)
Comment: The key point here is that Trump’s tariffs didn’t so much close America’s trade deficit as relocate it. But the fact this has happened even after the US started penalising re-labelling last year suggests this kind of transhipment was only ever part of the story. US giants like Apple and Nike are clearly shifting to de-risk away from US-China tensions, plus there’s an active s301 probe into the extent to which China’s overcapacity is simply bleeding into broader Southeast Asia.
🇴🇲 OMAN — Hormuz relief?
Brent crude prices have dropped to as low as $85 a barrel on hopes current Oman-Iran talks might finally reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Qatar’s prime minister is headed to Tehran today (Thursday) to encourage a new round of US-Iran talks. (NBC)
Comment: Maybe shipping CEOs didn’t get the memo, because the boss of Danish tanker group Torm is out there warning the Iran war is headed towards what he describes as a Ukraine-style stalemate. Tanker owners love to talk their own book (the wartime status quo has been lucrative for many), but we share his caution around any quick or easy off ramps here.
🇸🇿 ESWATINI — China says get out.
Beijing has issued an urgent travel advisory for its nationals to leave Eswatini “as soon as possible”, citing vague public safety risks. (BBC)
Comment: To be clear, this peaceful kingdom didn’t suddenly break out into disorder. Rather, it’s Taiwan’s last friend on the continent, and just hosted Taiwan’s leader in May. Beijing has pulled this same stunt on others that don’t do as they’re told. Meanwhile, the Pacific Island nation of Kiribati seems set to make its 2019 abandonment of Taiwan permanent, with a pro-Beijing lawmaker pushing a constitutional amendment limiting diplomatic ties to UN members only (ie, not Taiwan). The net result is China’s strategy of isolation to push a narrative of inevitability: shrink Taiwan’s map until its “return” (though the Communist Party has never controlled Taiwan) looks like mere housekeeping.
🇷🇺 RUSSIA — NATO red line?
After yesterday’s look at the CIA director’s surprise cameo in Moscow, The Wall Street Journal is now reporting his trip was to deliver a direct warning against testing NATO’s defences. Neither the White House nor the Kremlin will confirm. (WSJ $)
Comment: The folks at Bloomberg do good work, but blithely served as Putin’s mouthpiece in response to Ratcliffe’s visit, ominously reporting the words of “three people close to the Kremlin” that Putin will now escalate his attacks on Ukraine — as if his million casualties, wrecked economy, and daily missiles on random Kyiv apartments are somehow holding back. Anyway, the idea of escalating against NATO isn’t to open a front he can’t sustain, but rather to fracture the alliance and demoralise the free world against further aiding Ukraine’s self-defence.
Extra Intrigue
In other worlds…
Physics: A massive study has found that gravity behaves almost exactly as predicted across the cosmos, strengthening the case that dark matter is behind our universe’s mysterious missing mass.
Commodities: Iron ore is now trading down near a one-year-low of $95 per tonne, as China’s steel production continues its structural decline.
Art: Three decades after global artists donated works to support Sarajevo during its wartime siege, construction has now started on the city’s permanent Renzo Piano-designed Ars Aevi museum.
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Payment of the day
From the president’s socials.
🚨 BREAKING: MAN PAYS FOR COFFEE WITH CREDIT CARD!
Okay that doesn’t sound as spicy now that we read it back out-loud, but it’s a big deal: in Old Damascus, Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa just went out for coffee with his central bank governor Safwat Raslan.
But when it was time to pay, something historic happened: rather than dump a brick of local cash, Syria’s president waited for the waiter to fetch a credit card terminal, hovered his shiny Visa overhead, and history was made via a faint electronic beep.
15 years after US payments giants skipped town under fear of sanctions and conflict, they’ve started creeping back into town, and this photo op now makes it official.
It is, of course, pure theatre. One presidential latte will not a $216B wreck rebuild. But it’s a signal that one of the world’s oldest continuously inhabited capitals is now back in the world’s least sexy club (global payments networks). Beep. Approved.
Thursday Quiz
We’ll be off Friday, but back Monday! So enjoy your World Lake Day quiz 🤓