Today’s briefing:
— Is Putin losing?
— World’s sinking cities
— Don’t throw parties there
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. With the news cycle going the way it goes these days, it’s helpful to sometimes zoom out and do a quick stocktake. Today’s deep dive is one of those stories, updating you on the latest in the Russo-Ukraine conflict and how the Iran war has impacted those dynamics.
Here in DC, one of the things I hear the most is that Russia has been one of the biggest winners of the Iran war thanks largely to the rising demand for Russian oil. But how true is that, and where does Ukraine stand in all of this? We take you through some figures which can help to illustrate the state of play.
Let’s dive in.
Number of the day
$56B
That’s how much video games retailer GameStop just bid for e-commerce platform eBay.
Russia-Ukraine update
Think your week got off to a rough start?
Barely days after the Kremlin vaguely blamed the ✌️current operational situation✌️ for the ✌️truncated format✌️ of Russia’s WWII victory day parade this coming Saturday, Ukraine suggested the real reason (fear) by landing a drone-strike on a nearby luxury high-rise.
So here are four numbers shaping Putin’s fortunes right now, starting with…
$38B
That’s the extra cash Putin stands to earn this year if Russia’s Urals crude (its main export blend) averages $75 per barrel, instead of the $59 he assumed in his official 2026 budget.
The current price? Iran’s energy chaos has pushed Urals above $110, meaning maybe an extra ~$100B for Putin’s war chest if (big if) prices can stay that high the rest of the year.
Obviously that kind of windfall helps Putin sustain his war and ignore any peace talks (conveniently evaporating with the US busy elsewhere), though it’s worth keeping in mind that a) even these higher prices barely stem his bleeding (Putin’s war now eats ~40% of Russia’s entire budget), and b) Ukraine’s recent drone strikes have already cut his refining output to Russia’s lowest levels since 2009!
1,200 km
That’s the length of the Caspian Sea crossing between Russia’s Astrakhan and Iran’s Anzali, which started out as a way for Iran to send drones for Putin’s invasion. But that route dried up as Putin localised production, then it went into reverse amid the Iran war.
Within days, secret Russia-Iran talks had culminated in a Kremlin pledge to send Russian drones back to Iran as a way to prolong that war and dilute Western power.
That was until… Israel severed this link by hitting Iran’s Caspian port in March (something we pointed out a week before legacy media confirmed it 💅).
But the damage was already done… to Russia! The Emiratis are understandably livid that Putin was arming Iran against them. So if Putin ever feels confident enough to emerge from hiding, the Emiratis won’t be offering him the red carpet any time soon.
But you know who is getting that famous UAE welcome…?
10 years
That’s the duration of the new defence cooperation pacts Ukraine’s Zelensky himself had already signed with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar by late March, selling his country’s hard-won expertise in countering Putin’s drones.
But the Ukrainians are going beyond countering at this point, manufacturing ~600k drones per month and using them (including a mysterious and silent new 'Martian’ variant) to claim hits not just on Putin’s energy infrastructure, but also his fighter jets, naval vessels, and even that luxury high-rise near the Kremlin. And that’s just last week!
31.6 million
That’s how many times folks have now watched a viral video posted by Monaco-based Russian influencer Victoria Bonya. It’s a lot when you consider her message is entirely in Russian, and Instagram is banned in Russia (folks use VPNs). Titled An appeal to Vladimir Putin, from all caring Russians, it purports to focus on local Russian issues such as a bungled flood response, the environment, and even Putin’s Instagram ban.
But the intrigue is in her blunt words for Putin himself: “People are afraid of you”, she warns. “And this fear is creating a coiled spring. One day, that spring will release, and it won’t end well.”
She’s right.
Intrigue’s Take
Putin might be winning today’s oil price battle, but he risks losing the wider war. That’s because despite now having more money, he’s also got fewer options: even $100B sugar hits can’t buy back the air superiority he’s now lost, the national standing he’s now burnt, or the generation of young men he’s now sent to the grave.
That’s why this Saturday’s toned-down festivities won’t be any old parade.
Rather, Putin will reap what he’s sown in two ways: not just because a) the risk of Ukrainian strikes on downtown Moscow is a direct response to Putin’s own foolish decision to invade, but also b) Putin himself has built this parade tradition up from last century’s sporadic and solemn affair to this century’s annual chest-beating display of strength. So his humiliation is really complete when you compare the 200+ tanks and missile systems he was parading annually pre-war, to the zero we’ll likely see this Saturday.
And nothing says victory like watching a novelty-sized parade — safe only with your enemy’s blessing — while sitting with rumoured pariah attendees like Kim Jong Un.
Sound even smarter:
A second top US envoy to Ukraine has quit in just over a year, with multiple reports again citing frustration with DC’s seemingly endless patience with Putin.
Zelensky has dismissed Putin’s victory day ceasefire as an excuse for the dictator to hold a propaganda parade, and has instead announced Ukraine’s own longer ceasefire starting tonight (Tuesday): Putin either now respects Ukraine’s bigger ceasefire, or risks Ukraine raining on his parade.
Today’s briefing is presented by…
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — Ceasefire over?
We flagged that President Trump’s new Project Freedom to escort stranded ships out of Hormuz would be a game of chicken, and sure enough, at least two more commercial ships (from Korea and the UAE) have now taken hits. With the US then claiming hits on Iranian fast-boats, and the UAE reporting a presumed Iranian strike on another oil hub, the ceasefire now hangs by a thread, with Brent up 5% to $113. (Bloomberg $)
🇨🇳 CHINA — Fireworks probe.
Xi Jinping has ordered an investigation into a deadly fireworks factory explosion in central China that’s left dozens dead, adding that “those responsible must be held accountable”. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: In a familiar pattern for Xi’s China, local authorities had apparently tried to conceal the full scope of the incident to avoid condemnation.
🇦🇲 ARMENIA — EU betcha.
European leaders are in Yerevan for two back-to-back summits: the first-ever EU-Armenia summit, then a meeting of the European Political Community. (RFE/RL)
Comment: European leaders love to meet, but this is intriguing because it’s further proof of Armenia’s European pivot. Remember Armenia was technically one of Russia’s few treaty allies until Putin failed to intervene in Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive in 2023. Europe is also hoping to send a signal to everyday Armenians, who’ll use June’s elections to decide whether their country stays on a pro-EU trajectory.
🇫🇯 FIJI — Competing security deals.
Australia’s foreign minister is on another charm mission to regional hub Fiji, hoping to upgrade ties to a broader security and economic treaty. (Fiji Sun)
Comment: It’s part of Australia’s continued pushback on China’s regional influence, while China is now reportedly lobbying hard against Australia’s stalled treaty with neighbouring Vanuatu. The region’s China-West competition continues to leave strategically-located Pacific Island nations with more leverage than ever.
🇮🇳 INDIA — The local is national.
The results from four key state elections are rolling in, with Prime Minister Modi’s ruling BJP nationalists winning two states, including a longtime opposition stronghold. There’s been another surprise in the southern state of Tamil Nadu (pop ~77 million), where actor-turned-politician Vijay has pulled off a massive upset with his new party breaking the traditional duopoly to seize power. (Economic Times)
🇲🇽 MEXICO — Sinking feeling.
Mexico City is now one of the world’s fastest-sinking cities, according to new NASA data. Built atop an ancient reservoir that’s been over-pumped, the megapolis is now falling over 24cms (9in) annually. (NASA)
Comment: If you’re wondering about that sneaky “one of” above, it’s because sinking cities are weirdly common: Indonesia is moving its capital partly because Jakarta is slowly submerging, with similar challenges also facing Bangkok and Lagos.
🇿🇲 ZAMBIA — Health for minerals.
Zambia is pushing back against a US plan to tie $2B in health funding to a critical minerals deal, arguing the two should be considered separately. Authorities have also raised privacy concerns around a data-sharing clause the US wants. (Reuters)
Comment: The official reason for that US data-sharing clause is to ensure the program is using US taxpayer funds effectively, though locals also fear it’s about Big Pharma getting a strategic advantage via early access to novel pathogens.
Extra Intrigue
What people around the world are googling…
🇧🇪 Belgians looked up ‘hantavirus’ after the respiratory virus killed a Dutch couple and a German aboard a cruise-ship now off West Africa.
🇿🇦 South African Star Wars fans searched ‘May the 4th be with you’, a date now celebrated around the world.
🇧🇷 And folks in Brazil googled ‘monster truck’ after a deadly failed stunt in Colombia rattled the region.
Rave of the day
Authorities patrol the Teknival campsite. Credits: Prefet18 via Twitter
For legal reasons, we’ve never organised an illegal rave, but if we had to, we’d probably start by checking the venue wasn’t an old military firing range.
Tens of thousands of partygoers attended this weekend’s “free party” rave near the French town of Bourges, hoping to protest against proposed tough new laws against illegal raves!
To really rub it in, they picked the interior minister’s home town, but ended up settling in a field that’s served as an army firing range for over 150 years. And soon enough, police had to call in bomb disposal teams after these party animals found two unexploded shells!
Today’s poll
Do you think Putin is losing this war?
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think best explains the S&P500 hitting another record amid the Iran war?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🚀 The AI boom will outlast the war (49%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 💥 The markets are wrong (47%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
✍️ L.Z: “America doesn't have urgent regional tensions that threaten its security, and its consumers are more insulated than almost everyone else.”
💥 N.F.G: “The markets, as usual, are completely divorced from reality. But they can't evade reality forever.”