Today’s briefing:
— Putin’s victory day in five lines
— Modi’s spooky speech
— New sport just dropped
Sponsored by:
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. There’s a great passage (one of many tbh) in Moscow X, the 2023 spy thriller by former CIA officer David McCloskey:
“She’d come to think of Putin as many things all at once. An all-powerful Tsar and the cheerless manager of an unruly system larger than himself. A despot and an issuer of vague, sometimes ignored guidance. A new public idol and a private source of jokes and snickers… Like the rest of [our Russia], she thought, he is proud and insecure, aggressive and pitiable, strong and weak.”
Keep that in mind as we explore the five key lines from Putin’s victory day speech.
Quote of the day
“In the current situation, we must place great emphasis on saving foreign exchange”
That’s India’s Narendra Modi in a national address on Saturday night, urging compatriots to conserve foreign exchange, fuel, and fertiliser as the Hormuz crisis continues to hit the economy. Indian stocks and the rupee tumbled in reaction to the PM’s speech.
He said what?
While his tanks stayed away and the guest list shrank like the kids in a 1980s Rick Moranis comedy, President Putin still emerged on Moscow's historic Red Square to declare triumph at Russia's WWII victory day parade on Saturday.
So here are his five lines you need to know, starting with...
“I congratulate you on Victory Day, our sacred, inspiring and most important holiday!”
It wasn't always Russia's most important day. In fact, the Soviets only hosted four (1945, 1965, 1985, and 1990) as a more sombre affair reflecting on their 27 million WWII dead.
Rather, it was Putin (after Yeltsin) who made victory day annual, then pumped it up. Why?
First, Russia lacked a unifying story after the Soviet collapse, and tapping WWII pride offered him a way to bypass the failures of communism and the chaos of the 1990s.
But also second, it helped Putin consolidate his grip on power by projecting strength, framing himself as that heroic generation's rightful heir, and tapping patriotism to paper over today's stagnation and corruption. But...
“We will always remember the feat of the Soviet people – the fact that it was they who made the decisive contribution to the defeat of Nazism"
All leaders get selective with history, but Putin takes it further here: he honours Russia’s WWII sacrifices while dunking on Hitler’s "obedient accomplices" in Europe, all while skipping over Stalin's 1939 pact with Hitler that helped unleash WWII in the first place.
Call us naïve (someone just did, btw), but national strength eventually requires facing uncomfortable truths, not airbrushing them away. Speaking of which...
"They are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc. Despite this, our heroes are advancing.”
It’s a masterclass in reframing: "aggressive" inverts the fact it was Putin whose tanks entered Ukraine, while "entire NATO bloc" airbrushes out the collapse in US support.
But the wildest reframing is actually Putin's "advancing" word-choice, coming just days after his forces actually recorded their first monthly net territorial loss in years!
In fact, his war has now cost more soldiers than the US lost in all of WWII, and ~20 times what the Soviets lost trying to occupy Afghanistan for a decade.
Maybe that's why he later told journalists...
“I think that the matter is coming to an end"
That’s generating headlines because it's one of Putin's strongest public hints yet that his war could be entering its final phase, in a shift from earlier reiterations that he’d continue until he reaches his goals: the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.
So... is Putin close to achieving those goals? Ukraine's democratically-elected Zelensky is still not only in power, but his approval is back in the 60s. And rather than demilitarise, Ukraine is now hitting targets 1,600km (aka three Germanies end-to-end) deep into Russia.
So... how does Putin see this war ending?
“Of all European politicians, I would prefer talks with Schröder.”
LoL. Unfamiliar with Schröder's game? He was Germany's leader from 1998 until 2005, when he jumped near-instantly onto Russia's payroll via Nord Stream then Rosneft — he was earning a cool ~$1M per year at the peak from 2017 until he resigned in 2022 amid Putin's war (which he still hasn't condemned, btw).
But it’s not just cash — Schröder (82) and Putin are old pals, with Putin even attending Schröder’s 60th and 70th birthday bashes.
So suggesting peace talks with Schröder is absurd — that's like Zelensky saying he'd prefer peace talks with his own wife.
But does this offer still reveal anything? The mere hint at a possible ending arguably looks like an acknowledgement of war fatigue, while fishing around for an offramp that lets him pocket his gains. But this Schröder quip is also Putin still reiterating that any peace must be on his terms, which isn't really peace at all.
Meanwhile, by nominating a mediator that he knows no self-respecting capital could accept, he gets to again blame the West for stalling peace.
Intrigue’s Take
The gap between Putin's rhetoric and reality is getting impossible to ignore at this point. And while we've highlighted this for years, it's finally giving way to a legit vibe-shift, with more Kremlin insiders now painting a leader who's paranoid, absent, and losing his grip.
But vibes don't oust dictators. People do. That'd mean the kind of elite betrayal that ousted Khrushchev in 1964; or the kind of palace coup attempted against Gorbachev in 1991. And yet Putin has spent years fragmenting and compromising his elites to avoid this, while he's still got more than enough in the coffers to fund their loyalty.
Some of Putin’s predecessors have also lost power after military failures abroad, whether Nicholas II after WWI, or Gorbachev after Afghanistan. But even Putin's costly Ukraine debacle doesn’t yet hint at that kind of existential collapse.
So we still see more of the same ahead — a slow bleed in Ukraine, and a managed decline back home, until something breaks: whether Putin's health, or perhaps his ability to resist forced retirement off in some dacha.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — “Totally unacceptable”.
That’s how President Trump has described Iran’s weekend peace proposal, which demanded an end to the war and blockade, sanctions relief, war reparations, and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz. In return? The regime has notably refused to even discuss its nuclear or missile programs until after the war. (RFE)
Comment: It’s so one-sided, Iran’s objective might be to buy time, hoping economic and political pressure forces Trump to soften. But two remarkable new op-eds offer another theory: one is by America’s hawkish Robert Kagan, warning, “the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started.” The other is by a former Saudi spymaster and ambassador to the US (Turki), commending Saudi wisdom for staying out of this mess despite alleged ploys to pull the kingdom into the fray. Very different angles, but they both point to a regime in Iran that still holds cards, with zero rush to offer concessions.
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — Under pressure.
Keir Starmer’s ruling Labour party took a beating in local council elections over the weekend, fuelling both a) fresh calls for his resignation, and b) momentum for Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK. Meanwhile, Australia’s own populist-right One Nation party has won its first lower house seat during a by-election. (Guardian)
🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA — Another one bites the dust?
A top court has paved the way for authorities to reopen the long-running Phala Phala farm probe, rejecting attempts to suppress evidence related to the $580k found hidden at President Ramaphosa’s private farm in 2022. It’s all triggered fresh calls for his resignation, including within factions of his own party. (BBC)
🇦🇷 ARGENTINA — Rigi business.
The market darling economy minister (Caputo) has unveiled a big new investment law (Super ‘RIGI’ for its Spanish acronym) to attract funding for lithium, copper, and data centre projects — it includes a 15% corporate tax (down from 25%), 60% Year-1 depreciation, and zero export tariffs. (Rio Times)
Comment: The bill goes to Congress tomorrow (Tuesday), and has a solid chance of passing before the end of the year.
🇵🇰 PAKISTAN — First panda.
The finance minister has announced Pakistan will issue its debut Panda bond (yuan-denominated debt in China’s onshore market) as soon as this week. The initial tranche is around $250M, backed by guarantees from the Japan-led Asian Development Bank and the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. (CNA)
Comment: It’s a tiny but symbolic step, integrating Pakistan further into China’s capital markets, while helping Pakistan bolster its Hormuz-stretched forex reserves.
🇪🇸 SPAIN — Damage control.
Nearly 150 passengers and crew are now undergoing an unprecedented controlled disembarkation after the luxury MV Hondius docked in Spain’s Canary Islands yesterday (Sunday), carrying the remnants of a deadly hantavirus outbreak. Authorities are also tracing dozens of earlier passengers who disembarked in remote Saint Helena after the outbreak had already begun. (WHO)
🇨🇳 CHINA — To the summit!
Heavily armoured US Secret Service Suburbans and C-17 US transports have appeared in Beijing in recent days — pretty clear corroboration that the high-stakes Trump-Xi summit is indeed happening in Beijing this Wednesday through Friday, with an agenda likely covering Taiwan, tech, and trade — the top trade negotiators (Bessent and He) kick off their latest round of talks tomorrow (Tuesday). (SCMP)
Comment: Trump will want tangible wins ahead of the midterms — think Boeings and beef. As for Xi? He’s still prioritising predictability, while pushing for more Beijing-friendly language on Taiwan. They’ll talk about Iran too, but Xi has been pretty measured on that front. All in all, neither side wants escalation right now, though neither wants to cede meaningful ground on their real differences, so we’re not expecting any game-changers.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
Someone’s leaked a White House email demanding staffers stop leaking.
A German tourist has sued his tour operator (and won!) after he repeatedly failed to secure a sun lounge, even after waking at 6am.
A Wisconsin CPR instructor has had a heart attack while teaching CPR, only to be saved by his students.
A Titanic museum exhibit in Chicago has flooded.
And while we’re in the Windy City… the Pope himself has tried (and failed) to call his old Chicago bank and update his contact details to the Vatican.
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Sport of the day
An ad for last month’s big SpoGomi race in Nozawa Onsen
Heard about next year’s SpoGomi World Cup? Coined by a Japanese jogger back in 2008, the ‘Spo’ comes from sport, and ‘Gomi’ is Japanese for trash. And it all started when Kenichi Mamitsuka started gamifying his morning jog habit of collecting trash:
PET plastic bottle? 25 points right there.
Veteran teams also scan for trash clusters near vending machines.
But the pro move? Cigarette butts! So tiny and toxic, they each net 100 points.
So in the formal sport, teams race across town and have 50 minutes to score as many points as possible, then 20 minutes to sort it all via some kind of trash Tetris.
The next SpoGomi world cup is likely in Japan next year, and it’s not too late to start training, dear Intriguer: it’s now active across 35+ countries, and SpoGomi USA just announced its summer series will kick off in Venice Beach California, this May 30th!
Today’s poll
Do you think the Russo-Ukraine war is coming to an end as Putin suggested?
Thursday’s poll: Do you think it's time to just engage with Myanmar's junta?
🤝 Yes, 5 years of isolation haven't worked (29%)
❌ No, hold firm until they return power to the people (68%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
🤝 M.D: “With engagement comes an opportunity for influence.”
❌ A.R: “Once you start engaging, you give legitimacy and power to the autocrats.”
✍️ T.B: “Publicly recognizing the ethnic pro-democracy governments and finding ways to support them with humanitarian money will offer them legitimacy and bolster the chance of a free Myanmar in the future.”
✍️ M.M: “We recognise states, not governments.”