Today’s briefing:
— New York’s global primaries
— Your US-Israel-Iran latest
— Czech mate

Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. Someone once described New York City to me as like a river: step out onto the sidewalk, and before you know it, you’ve bumped into a friend and been swept along on some unplanned evening that spits you back out on a bank seven hours later, all bleary eyed, bewildered, still chuckling at that Britney joke, and probably full of Bengali food or whatever other hidden gem emerged.

By contrast, they described LA (another fave of mine) as a lake, where you really need to dig your oars in to explore each cove beyond the 101.

Anyway, today is a river story, taking us to today’s surprisingly international mayoral primaries in New York City. So put your floaties on, slap on some SPF50+, and join us.

Quick update: Israel-US-Iran

  • Iran’s answer. Iran responded to the weekend’s US strikes by firing at the US base in Qatar, after giving everyone a heads-up. Causing no casualties or damage, it aimed to eke out a symbolic retaliation without escalating things further.

  • Israel’s answer. Israel then hit Iran’s notorious Evin prison and its Revolutionary Guards HQ, a warning the Israelis could now go after ideological targets unless…

  • Peace at last? President Trump then announced an Israel-Iran ceasefire, but it lasted barely an hour, with Iran denying Israel’s claims that Iran breached it first.

  • Foreign friends. Meanwhile, Iranian envoy Abbas Araghchi emerged in Moscow for talks with Putin, though neither can offer much beyond words at this point.

The city that never votes red sleeps

Millions of New Yorkers head to the polls today (Tuesday) for Democratic primaries that’ll shape who ends up helming America’s biggest city and the world’s financial capital.

The frontrunners include… 

  • Andrew Cuomo, New York’s hard-charging establishment governor who resigned in 2021 amid Covid inquiries and #metoo allegations

  • Zohran Mamdani, the state assembly’s democratic socialist who’s shot to fame on a savvy social media game and Bernie-style policies like rent freezes, and

  • Eric Adams, the sitting mayor who’s not on today’s ballot but (after a foreign corruption scandal) is now running as an independent in November.

Given the city’s heavily Democratic vibes, today’s primary winner typically goes on to beat the Republican nominee to become New York’s next mayor.

But… why are ex-diplomats even covering this? Here are four reasons:

First, New York is big. If the city were a country, its economy would be the world’s ninth-largest — that’s bigger than (say) Russia, Brazil, or Mexico. The city’s police department even has a bigger budget than all UN peacekeeping.

Second, New York is global. Sure, there’s the obvious stuff like the UN headquarters, and the world’s largest capital markets (more than half the world’s stock market cap sits in the NYSE and NASDAQ). But foreign governments also contribute to the world’s largest concentration of consulates there because almost half the city’s population is foreign-born, speaking 800+ languages every day. That’s alotta passports.

Third, these candidates are global. Some quick factoids by way of example…

  • Staunchly pro-Israel Cuomo is part of the legal team defending Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu against ICC war crime charges

  • Meanwhile, staunchly pro-Palestinian Mamdani has called for Netanyahu’s arrest (and was born in Uganda to Indian parents btw), and

  • Staunchly hilarious Adams got indicted for acting as Turkey’s unregistered foreign agent last year, with a 57-page allegation that he took perks like Turkish Airlines upgrades in return for approving a non-compliant Turkish consulate in Manhattan! (prosecutors dropped the case in April amid White House pressure)

And fourth, the city’s influence is global. Everyone knows its yuuuuge role in (say) US presidential election fundraising. But it’s also, for example, a hub for espionage — many of those consulates provide legal cover for spies, leveraging the city’s open vibes, easy access to elites, crowded surveillance context, and strategic importance. Eg…

  • Soviet and later SVR (Russia’s CIA) spooks have used New York City to handle famous recruits like the CIA’s Aldrich Ames and the FBI’s Robert Hanssen, while

  • SVR intelligence officers like Evgeny Buryakov have recently posed as NYC bankers to spy on US sanctions and energy sectors, and Anya Kushchenko posed as a real estate agent while trying to infiltrate US policymaking circles.

Anyway, who’s gonna win? Limited polling suggests today could be a photo finish between Cuomo and Mamdani. But even if Cuomo loses, he’s flagged he will (like Mayor Adams) fight on as an independent through to November, which could get interesting.

But all that to say sure, the gyros are fresh, the cocktails are fire, and the pulse is unmistakable. But New York City’s primaries will also ripple globally.

Intrigue’s Take

You know what? It’s not just New York City that makes global waves right now. Arguably, it’s simply the most prominent among a trend that’s been playing out for years now.

Back in 2017, for example, Los Angeles became America’s first city to appoint a deputy mayor focused entirely on international engagement — the first appointee was actually a former US ambassador to ASEAN. Other global cities have similar posts. Why?

It started out as a way for cities to leverage their global status to drive more tourism, trade, and investment. But as our world retreats inwards, those same cities are doubling down on their global strategies:

  • Cross-border hubs like LA feel a need to nuance some of the messaging out of DC given its potential impact on the port and visitor numbers LA needs

  • Cities often also have the expertise our world needs to solve shared problems, whether it’s around urbanisation or transport infrastructure, and

  • Cities have also sought to charge ahead where countries have hit a road-block — take the C40 network of ~100 cities now leveraging their influence over 700 million residents and 25% of global GDP to tackle climate change, for example.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES - House bans WhatsApp on staffer devices.
The House has warned staffers not to use Meta-owned messaging app WhatsApp on government devices, citing privacy and security concerns. The app is already approved for official use in the Senate. (Axios)

🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION - Report finds Israel in breach.
An EU report has found indications Israel’s actions in Gaza are breaching its human rights obligations under the EU-Israel Association Agreement. (AP)

Comment: While Spain and Ireland want to suspend the pact, they’d fall short of the required unanimous support. So debate might focus on (say) ending visa-free travel for Israelis, though even that would still need a qualified majority (ie, 15 of the bloc’s 27 nations, representing at least 65% of the EU’s population).

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Voters punish ruling party.  
Tokyo voters have dunked on Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), stripping the LDP from its dominant position in the local assembly in weekend elections. It’s a setback for the LDP just weeks before a national vote for Japan’s upper house. (Straits Times)

🇳🇴 NORWAY - Buying drones from Ukraine.  
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky has announced Norway will invest $400M to help boost Ukraine’s production of drones and air defence missiles. (Kyiv Independent)

Comment: One of the many unexpected results of Putin’s decision to invade his neighbour is that Ukraine now leads the world in drone warfare. Given Putin’s increasing reliance on missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, it’s unsurprising Ukraine would now jump at the chance to master Norway’s NASAMS air defence system.

🇰🇭 CAMBODIA - Neighbourhood beef escalates.   

Cambodia’s Hun Manet has now halted all fuel imports from Thailand, as ties continue to sour after last month’s deadly border skirmish. Meanwhile, there are still calls for Thailand’s PM to resign after last week’s leaked call featuring her criticising the powerful Thai military. (Al Jazeera)

🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA - New $1.5B World Bank loan.   
South Africa hopes its new $1.5B World Bank loan might help it revive the country’s ailing transport and energy infrastructure, as years of rolling blackouts and port congestion continue to hit growth. (South Africa’s treasury)

Extra Intrigue

Here’s what people around the world are googling 

  • 🇬🇷 Greeks looked up ‘Chios’ for the latest on the island’s raging wildfires.

  • 🇭🇰 Hong Kongers googled ‘Tesla’ after news broke that the EV-maker is rolling out its long-awaited robotaxi service.

  • And 🇮🇹 Italians searched ‘Arnaldo Pomodoro’ after the renowned sculptor (known for his shiny spheres) passed away.

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Event of the day

A big thanks to our New York Intriguers who braved the heatwave to join our fabulous event with the Czech Mission to the UN last night!

In addition to the embassy’s signature Intrigue cocktail (the ‘Czech mate’) plus a warm welcome from Ambassador Kulhanek, guests also enjoyed a rockstar panel featuring Arjun, Christine, Anand, and Esther from the worlds of tech, finance, and investing. Couldn’t make it along? Here are three of their insights that really made us think:

  • Firms might not call it geopolitics, but CEOs now depend on roles like compliance, cyber, risk, and beyond, that often function like a mini government

  • Answering a question from Singapore, panellists encouraged smaller states to stick to their values rather than get caught in today’s great-power struggle, and

  • Answering a question about multinationals having to ‘take sides’, panellists noted today’s boardrooms can offer lessons for diplomacy, given some corporates provide vital services around the world, so can’t easily back out.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: How do you feel about the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites?

👍 Worth it to stop Iran from getting nukes (46%)
👎 An unlawful response to a non-imminent threat (49%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)

Your two cents:

  • 👎 M: “As a non-proliferation diplomat, I cannot stress how fragile the treaty has gotten between this and Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine. This has got to stop.”

  • 👍 L.H: “The USA must take steps to limit countries from building such weapons of mass destruction.”

  • ✍️ R.O: “If almost two thirds of Intriguers saw this coming, there's no way Tehran didn't, giving ample time to move out equipment, uranium, etc. If the strike ended up as only a flesh wound, then the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze.”

  • ✍️ A.B: “We must wait and see.”

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