🌎 Why’s everyone talking about Greenland?

Plus: Snack of the day

January 08, 2025

IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What’s going on with Greenland?
2️⃣ The Intrigue jobs board
3️⃣ Snack of the day

Hi Intriguer. It’s a big week here in Washington DC. We got a huge storm which dumped 10 inches of snow, resulting in two snow days (my first since living in DC)! The nearby park has hosted insanely wholesome scenes, with many locals braving the cold to go sledding and hold impromptu snowball fights.

The other big thing in DC this week is former US president Jimmy Carter’s funeral on Thursday, which will attract dignitaries from far and wide. His foreign policy legacy includes the Torrijos-Carter Treaties, which eventually left the Panama Canal under the control of Panama.

I’ll bet Carter would be surprised that this issue is now a thing again, with incoming President Trump’s recent remarks on the topic. But of course, Panama’s not alone — it looks like Greenland is now also re-emerging as a foreign policy issue that Trump will scrutinise. So let’s take a look in today’s top story.

PS - ¿Hablas español? ¡Check out our weekly edition in Spanish!

THE HEADLINES

China’s currency hits 16-month low.
The renminbi has hit its lowest point since September 2023, as looming Trump 2.0 tariffs add pressure to China’s sputtering economy. The selloff also reflects expectations Beijing will devalue its currency to make its exports more competitive.

Meta to swap fact-checking with ‘community notes’.
The social media giant has decided to wind down its US fact-checking program in favour of Twitter/X-style community notes. CEO Mark Zuckerberg, previously the target of Trump criticism, says the changes are due to “too many mistakes and too much censorship”.

US hits top Hungarian official with sanctions.
Washington has imposed corruption sanctions against Antal Rogán, the confidant of PM Viktor Orbán sometimes referred to as Hungary’s ‘propaganda minister’. Budapest has pledged to take up the issue with Donald Trump, who shares warm ties with Orbán.

Yoon to face second arrest attempt.
South Korea’s corruption watchdog has got an extension for Yoon’s arrest order over his short-lived attempt to impose martial law. An attempt to break through the various fortifications now surrounding Yoon’s residence could be next.

Over 30,000 evacuated in mass LA wildfires. 
Los Angeles has declared a state of emergency while at least three wildfires burn through parts of the city. Neighbouring Malibu has now urged its own residents to prepare to leave, as LA firefighters struggle against strong winds and dry conditions.

TOP STORY

Why’s everyone talking about Greenland? 

When a quiet and distant land suddenly starts popping up on the front pages of international newspapers, it's often one of three things: i) it’s won a sporting tournament, ii) there’s been some sort of disaster, or iii) someone important is talking about it.

Greenland now falls into category three, though Trump critics might suggest it’s a twofer.

As is so often the case, this story starts with a tweet, courtesy of Trump’s nomination of his next ambassador to Denmark containing a note that US “ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.” He then followed up with a similar tweet this week.

In suggesting the US take this autonomous region of Denmark (a US ally), Trump is picking up where he left off in 2019, when Danish leader Mette Frederiksen described the idea as “absurd”, prompting Trump to then cancel an upcoming state visit.

And back then, Trump was really reviving something that’s been on US minds since at least 1867, when Secretary of State Seward eyed Greenland while buying Alaska from Russia. The US later ended up buying the Virgin Islands from Denmark instead to secure the Panama Canal, and recognised full Danish sovereignty over Greenland as part of the deal.

But the idea never really disappeared: US forces held Greenland when the Nazis invaded Denmark, and Vice President Rockefeller revisited the topic in the 1970s. Meanwhile, the US and Denmark signed a treaty in 1951 entrenching the US in Greenland’s defence.

And that all begs the question… why so much US interest in Greenland? Three big reasons:

  1. Location

Home to fewer than 60,000 people, Greenland sits at the intersection of the Arctic and Atlantic oceans and (mostly) above the Arctic circle, making it ideal to:

  • a) Prevent rivals like Russia and China from dominating the Arctic (something we’ve explored recently)

  • b) Monitor and control the vast blue, including new shipping lanes opening up as Arctic icecaps melt, and

  • c) Control the airspace, which not only lies between the US and its European allies (you’ve probably flown over Greenland on a US-EU flight), but which also covers the likely path for any Russian missiles targeting the US mainland.

This all partly explains why the US has its Pituffik base there, home to missile warning sensors, space comms, surveillance, a year-round airfield, and the world’s northernmost deep water port. It’s also partly why the US opened a consulate there in 2020.

So location is really the overriding US interest here, but there’s also…

  1. Minerals

Trump’s first public musings about buying Greenland reportedly followed a White House briefing by an obscure Australian geologist who highlighted the island’s mineral wealth, which has become more apparent as surface icecaps melt more quickly than expected.

For example, Greenland has the world’s largest reserves of rare earths outside China, which now controls around 80% of this key defence and energy tech input. So as the West de-risks away from China, these kinds of resources become crucial.

China knows this (plus the above location points), which could explain why it’s become Greenland’s second-top economic partner after Denmark, though Western pressure has blocked China’s recent attempts to invest in local port and airport infrastructure.

And that all leads us to…

  1. Timing

Greenland’s leader Múte Egede delivered a remarkable New Year’s address last week, effectively hinting an independence referendum could come as soon as this April. Under a 2009 agreement with Denmark, Greenland could then declare independence.

Like the Danes, Egede has already reiterated to Trump (whose son just visited) that Greenland is “not for sale”, though the island currently depends on $500M in annual subsidies from Denmark. And Trump has now threatened Denmark with “very high” tariffs, and remarkably even just declined to rule out the use of force (ditto with Panama).

So in the above context, you might see why some folks — friend or foe — are taking a line from geopolitical mastermind Justin Bieber, who once declared, “never say never”.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

It’s worth a quick look at the ways Trump’s words are now rippling around the world.

First, the Danes have nailed it, noting simply that “Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders.” That’s smooth because it’s a) factual, b) less likely to irritate Trump, and c) builds bridges with the Greenlanders themselves, who’ll bring post-colonial frustrations into their independence debate. And in the meantime, this whole saga attracts more Greenland tourism and investor interest, plus more leverage with Copenhagen (though there’s hesitancy there to invest in a place pondering an exit).

Second, and notwithstanding any longer-term Trump strategy, US rivals like China and Russia will welcome Western divisions, and could quote Trump’s lines back at him in justifying their own expansionism.

And third, it’ll be another reminder to US allies that if long-time stalwarts like Canada and Denmark can cop Trump 2.0 surprises, anyone can.

Also worth noting:

  • Greenland is around three times the size of Texas, with ice covering ~80%.

  • While many Greenlander elites speak Danish, the official and most widely-spoken language is Greenlandic, which is closely related to Inuit languages.

PS - Join us for a candid chat on China with Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi from the Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the US and the Chinese Communist Party. It’ll be online, 10am ET on Tuesday 21 January. Register here!

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

  1. 🇯🇵 Japan: Tokyo is reportedly preparing to welcome China’s foreign minister Wang Yi to Japan next month, paving the way for a possible visit by President Xi. The news comes days after the White House blocked Nippon Steel’s takeover of US Steel on national security grounds, in a major upset for Japan (a key US ally).

  2. 🇪🇪 Estonia: Prime Minister Kristen Michal has assured his citizens that Estonia can handle any surprises as it desynchronises from the Russian electricity grid and harmonises instead with the EU. Citing national security, Estonia (with Latvia and Lithuania) will switch from Russia-Belarus to the EU grid next month.

  3. 🇳🇨 New Caledonia: The semi-autonomous French territory has elected its 18th Congress, kicking off talks to see who’ll end up as the island’s new president. Last time in 2021, the process took five months and ended up electing New Caledonia’s first pro-independence president since the post was established.

  4. 🇻🇪 Venezuela: Winning presidential candidate Edmundo González has announced that masked gunmen kidnapped his son-in-law in Caracas yesterday. The exiled González is currently on a world tour to build recognition for his victory, as long-time autocrat Nicolas Maduro prepares to re-inaugurate himself on Friday.

  5. 🇸🇩 Sudan: The US has announced sanctions on the leader of Sudan’s ‘Rapid Support Forces’ militia, after determining it’s committed genocide. The US Treasury has also imposed sanctions on various UAE companies deemed weapons suppliers or supporters of the Sudanese group and its allies.

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EXTRA INTRIGUE

Intrigue’s jobs board 💪

  • Domestic Policy Adviser @ British Embassy in Bern, Switzerland

  • Politics Editor @ CalMatters in Sacramento, California

  • Global Communications Executive @ Unilever in London, UK

  • Global Forwarding Intern @ DHL in Dubai, UAE

SNACK OF THE DAY

A Belgian city used the above pic when encouraging folks to eat their Christmas trees.

Belgium’s city of Ghent has landed itself in the crosshairs of the national food regulator after suggesting local residents consider eating their old Christmas trees to reduce holiday waste. The regulator was pretty blunt in response, declaring that “Christmas trees are not meant to end up in the food chain.”

While there are Nordic recipes featuring Christmas trees, the risk elsewhere is that some species can be poisonous, and many trees are bug-sprayed. So authorities are basically encouraging Belgians to leave those Christmas tree sandwiches to the Scandinavian pros, and maybe stick to regular ol’ frites instead.

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Trudeau's party stands a chance at this year's elections?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✅ Yes, another leader could turn things around (17%)

 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👀 No, the polling is clear (82%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)

Your two cents:

  • ✅ S.G: “People will see that Pierre Poilievre is too Trump-like for Canadian tastes.”

  • 👀 B.S: “The pendulum is swinging back to the right. But not so far as to become the 51st state!”

  • ✍️ P.P: “As more Canadians take a closer look at what the Conservatives have to offer, the less likely they are going to vote for them.“

  • 👀 P.T: “Pierre wins in a landslide.”

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