1️⃣ ASEAN summit kicks off | 2️⃣ The Intrigue jobs board | 3️⃣ Map of the day |
Hi Intriguer. There are some groupings and regions in geopolitics which are perpetually in the spotlight, embroiled in tensions, insecurity, and, at times, outright conflict. As a result, they’re nearly always heavily covered and scrutinised, warts and all.
The opposite to this, seemingly, is the steady ship of the ASEAN region. That’s the ‘Association of Southeast Asian Nations’, a geopolitical and economic grouping consisting of ten countries in the region.
To me, the significance of the ASEAN region has frequently flown under the radar, so we’ll dive more into that in our top story today.
But most importantly, my interest in the ASEAN region has recently spiked because it’s home to Moo Deng, everyone’s favourite ungovernable pygmy hippo. She’s my latest obsession / 2024 Halloween costume.
US considers breaking up Google following landmark ruling.
The justice department has said it may ask a judge to seek “structural remedies” to bring an end to what an August ruling called an illegal monopoly over internet searches. The measures could include forcing Google to divest from its Chrome browser and Android operating system. Google currently handles 90% of all US internet searches, and it plans to appeal the August ruling.
Gallant US trip postponed.
We mentioned yesterday that Israel’s defence minister (Yoav Gallant) was due in Washington today, but his visit has since been called off at the last minute. The word is his boss and political rival (Benjamin Netanyahu) axed the trip, because Bibi wants to speak with the US president first (a phone call is reportedly in the works for later today). Meanwhile, Hezbollah has reported more clashes with Israeli troops in Lebanon, as Israel sends a fourth division into the fray.
Biden cancels trips as Hurricane Milton nears.
The US president has cancelled trips to Angola and Germany so he can oversee preparations for the storm, which has now strengthened back to a category 5 hurricane again. Milton is expected to make landfall in Florida sometime between Wednesday night and early Thursday. Biden was scheduled to discuss a Ukraine peace plan in Germany with several allies and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky.
Rio Tinto announces $6.7B acquisition of lithium producer.
The British-Australian mining giant is set to become the world's third-largest lithium producer after acquiring Arcadium Lithium, a US-based lithium producer. The deal represents a 90% premium to Arcadium’s closing price when Reuters first broke the news of a possible sale last week.
Brazil lifts X/Twitter ban.
Local authorities have lifted the ban after the social media platform paid a $5M fine, blocked accounts accused of misinformation, and agreed to (re)hire a local representative. Brazil had banned X for weeks following a row between the supreme court and the platform’s owner Elon Musk.
ASEAN’s members (in the above flag order, L-R): Cambodia, Singapore, Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Brunei, Laos, and Malaysia. The raised banner in the middle is the ASEAN flag.
Laos is now hosting its neighbours for the latest ASEAN summit — that’s the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, comprising the above 10 members plus an 11th on the way (Timor Leste).
Way back when the group first emerged in ‘67, its foreign ministers called the forum ‘sports-shirt diplomacy’ as they ironed out the deets from a beach resort in sunny Bang Saen. Ah diplomacy…those were the days.
And those were the days: the bipolar (US v USSR) days of the Cold War. But we’re now moving into a multipolar world with seemingly higher and more complicated stakes. So that’s making ASEAN’s work more difficult, and its list of willing partners much longer (the US, India, China, Japan, Russia and others are all there jostling for attention this week).
So let’s take a quick look at the top challenges on ASEAN’s agenda —
Myanmar
Despite the beloved ‘ASEAN family photo’ that emerges at each summit, there’s one member who’s long been causing the ASEAN family headaches: Myanmar. It’s like the Daniel Baldwin of Southeast Asia. And like all good, loving, happy families, each ASEAN member is peeved at Myanmar for different reasons.
When the 2021 coup toppled Myanmar’s civilian government and triggered a bloody civil war, ASEAN was keen to use its diplomatic channels to help engineer a solution. And sure enough, its ‘Five-Point Consensus’ soon emerged, calling for an immediate end to the violence plus dialogue among “all parties”. But that’s where the consensus ended.
Malaysia and Singapore, for example, have since called for tougher measures against Myanmar’s junta, which has shrugged off ASEAN demands and is now proposing a lop-sided roadmap of its own (after losing control of half the country). Meanwhile, others like Thailand next door prefer a more nuanced approach given their proximity to all the chaos. Anyway, it’s all become a lingering source of tension at each ASEAN summit. Speaking of which…
South China Sea
Countries in Southeast Asia have been laying claim to parts of the resource-rich and strategically-located South China Sea for decades. But things got much spicier in 2009 when the more-distant China declared it actually owned virtually the entire sea. And rather than abide by the main UN maritime treaty, or comply with a related ruling that found China had “no legal basis” for its claims, China has opted for another route:
It’s been negotiating a ‘code of conduct’ with ASEAN members, but they’ve been divided on the details. Some (like Cambodia) are chummy with China and have no clashing claims in the sea, so they have little interest in talking tough. But others (like Vietnam and the Philippines) have much more at stake.
And meanwhile as these negotiations drag out, China has built its military, coast guard, and fishing presence throughout the disputed areas, even ramming Philippine ships within Manila’s own internationally-recognised waters. And that’s all raised questions about whether China wants to finalise the code at all.
Meanwhile, these first two agenda items are made even spicier by…
US-China competition
Neither the US nor China are full ASEAN members, but they’re both in Laos this week, with US Secretary of State Blinken promoting the vision of a "free and open Indo-Pacific" (where no one country can dominate or be dominated), while Premier Li Qiang looks to emphasise China as a source of that sweet, sweet investment and infrastructure.
This US-China competition is a little awkward for ASEAN as a whole, but it’s also a real opportunity for many ASEAN members individually who are using the sudden attention of world powers to extract help on other priorities.
So that might explain why, despite all the challenges above, when you see ASEAN’s leaders pose for the traditional family photo this week, they’ll all still be smiling.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
In a way, the mere existence of ASEAN is a miracle — when it was formed in 1967, its original five members (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) were all quarrelling with one another.
But one of the reasons they (and later members) felt comfortable was because of the relatively low stakes enshrined in the ‘ASEAN way’, which emphasises “non-interference; quiet diplomacy; no use of force; and decision-making through consensus”. That’s worthy stuff, and it’s laid the groundwork not just for (say) a free trade pact among themselves, but also pacts with others like China, India, Japan, and beyond.
But as we’ve seen above, as the stakes get higher and the issues get tougher, that same ‘ASEAN Way’ arguably risks looking less like the 11 secret herbs & spices keeping ASEAN together, and more like a recipe for continued inaction, which in this new world of ours, eventually becomes a recipe for irrelevance.
Also worth noting:
Japan’s new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba is in town as an ASEAN partner, and whispers have emerged he might pitch his ‘Asian NATO’ idea. That’s despite his own FM and defence minister suggesting otherwise, while others (like the US and India) keep casting doubt on the idea.
Malaysia will take over from Laos as ASEAN chair next year.
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🇰🇵 North Korea: South Korea’s defence minister has suggested the North is likely sending troops to fight in Ukraine alongside Russia. His comments seem to corroborate North Korean casualties being reported by Ukrainian media outlets, and come as the North continues to sell weapons to Russia.
🇪🇺 EU: After a few months of playing will-they, won't-they… China has announced it will indeed impose tariffs of up to 39% on European brandy imports. The announcement, just days after the EU voted to slap tariffs on China-made EVs, has caused shares in French beverage companies to plunge.
🇦🇺 Australia: The environment minister has announced that over 50% of Australia’s oceans will soon become a protected area. That’d push Australia well beyond the global 30% target many governments adopted back in 2022.
🇲🇽 Mexico: The mayor of a city near Acapulco in the southern state of Guerrero has been found murdered, just days after taking office. Mexico’s newly-inaugurated leader Claudia Sheinbaum has indicated she plans to stick to her predecessor’s ‘hugs not bullets’ policy against the cartels.
🇰🇪 Kenya: Remote workers making at least $55k per year will soon be able to apply for a new digital nomad visa to work and live in Kenya. Countries including Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Turkey, and Italy have implemented similar visas to attract highly-skilled and cashed-up visitors to their shores.
IT advisor @ EY in New York City
Senior associate @ Fitch Group in Dubai
Supply chain analyst @ Beavertown Brewery in London
Senior Philanthropy Officer @ Australian National University in Canberra
Image credits: CBC.
Alaska is probably America’s most famous exclave, but it isn’t the only one.
Point Roberts is a tiny ‘pene-exclave’, which is the odd term for a country’s turf when it’s only accessible via water or a foreign country (in this case, Canada). You see, Point Roberts is part of the state of Washington, but it actually hangs off the bottom of Canada.
How’d that happen? It’s all thanks to the 1846 Oregon Treaty, which set the 49th parallel as the official boundary between the US and British North America (now Canada). The tranquil US seaside town now has a population of around 1,200 souls.
Extra fun facts: there are only two traffic lights in Point Roberts, both on the same street. And when local kids graduate beyond the second grade, they continue their education over in Blaine WA, which is a 45 minute drive and two international border crossings away.
What do you think about remote worker visas? |
Yesterday’s poll: Has the state of the world made you re-think your travel choices lately?
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⛔ Yep, big time (28%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🛫 Nope, just avoid certain hotspots and you're fine (70%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
🛫 S.A.K: “There will always be conflicts in the world somewhere. Just be careful and always take precautions wherever you are and experience life. The more we see other parts of the world the better we can understand each other.”
✍️ O.R: “The sad state of polluted areas suggests we should pull back. The remaining not-so-badly-trashed areas should remain so. Travel to view and experience should be supervised, simple, and in keeping with the regions.”
⛔ K.F: “Before the pandemic, my wife and I would travel twice per year and stay 6 months per visit. Now we would not revisit most of the places we went because of social unrest, corruption, or gangs.”
✍️ M.A: “When you live on the other side of the world from your family, travelling isn't a choice but more like a necessity. It's a concern, but... Que sera, sera.”
✍️ B.E.B: “Never been much of a traveller anyway, too much hassle.”
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