Today’s briefing:
— Moscow ablaze
— UK’s new PM?
— Do not play those drums in China
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Moscow ablaze
— UK’s new PM?
— Do not play those drums in China
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. There’s a certain type of person (me?) who loves to drop Russian quotes about the raw, immovable nature of power and humanity.
Maybe they lather you up with some Catherine the Great, insisting, “I shall be an autocrat. That’s my trade. The good Lord shall forgive me — that’s His.”
Then bam, fast-forward 140 years to Lenin and his famous “Кто кого?” (“who, whom?”), distilling a zero-sum worldview rotating around who will crush whom.
But as a tireless optimist, I’ll always end with Dostoevsky — sure, he knew his homeland’s ruthless calculus of power. But it was still paired with a stubborn, almost irrational belief in redemption: “Beauty will save the world.”
So let’s look at how war is now coming home to Moscow again.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
8 points
To the extent you still want to rely on polling given Colombia’s first-round upset, that (8 points) is the lead reportedly enjoyed by populist-right celebrity lawyer Abelardo ‘El Tigre’ de la Espriella over leftist senator Iván Cepeda for this Sunday’s high-stakes run-off.
Hits closer to home.
Muscovites awoke to black rain again this morning — still staining cars, windowsills, and balconies with the vivid reminder that Ukraine's largest-ever drone counter-attack just nailed the Russian capital's largest fuel supplier, barely 15km from the Kremlin.
The result? Sure, a skyline littered with fireballs and smoke, major airports plunged into chaos, and random commuters stuck in gridlock filming overwhelmed air defence operators firing manpads from right next to soccer moms.
But the real result? Here are three quotes to consider, starting with…
"If Ukraine burns, Moscow will burn too"
That’s Ukraine's Zelensky, warning it’s a "fully justified response" to Putin's war. But he’s also been careful to avoid any hint of moral equivalence, emphasising that while Putin (the invader) hits random homes and historic monasteries, Ukraine still targets Putin's war machine.
The sharpest framing, however, might've actually come from Zelensky's foreign minister: “One of the most popular questions asked by Muscovites this morning is ‘What is going on?’ I can answer. Your country started a war of aggression against ours… Now that you know what’s going on, ask Putin when he is planning to end it.”
So... what's Putin said about all this?
[…]
That's not an editing error above. Not this time at least. The reality is Putin still hasn't said a word.
Why? Maybe because he's busy hosting ASEAN leaders in Kazan. Maybe because he follows the Tsarist pattern of letting subordinates own the failure while he plays the disappointed father. Maybe it's Maybelline. Or maybe letting his juniors speak first allows him a bit of deniability and flexibility while he actually figures out any response.
So then... what did his juniors say? Putin's long-running loyalist foreign minister (Lavrov) has pledged more escalation via "massive coordinated strikes", implicitly repeating the fiction that Moscow has somehow been ‘holding back’ all these years.
But there's not really anything Putin could say at this point to un-do the fact that his Muscovite and Petersburg elites are now exposed to the impacts of his war.
Speaking of which...
“I haven't been able to fill up for two days now”
Moscow's Kapotnya refinery has now taken big hits two days in a row. And with its crude distillation, catalytic reformer, and diesel hydrotreatment fried, it won't just flick back on.
The city’s mayor (Sobyanin) insists there's "no immediate threat" to fuel supplies, though that increasingly risks giving Baghdad Bob energy given a) Kapotnya provides ~half the capital's fuel, and b) Russia (of exporting fame) is now importing fuel from Asia.
But that third quote above actually comes from a local (via Reuters) over in occupied Crimea (pop. 2.5m) — the pain there is now even sharper after weeks of Ukraine systematically severing the peninsula’s key supply routes. The result is bottlenecks, and Ukraine is now hitting those too — a reported 50 trucks in one hit alone, just last week.
It's all now causing shortages, queues, dry pumps, and panic. And it's now turning Putin's Crimean trophy (yoinked from Ukraine in 2014) into a costly, and increasingly untenable liability.
Intrigue’s Take
That’s all intriguing, but what does it really mean? Or to put it another way, will any of this make any meaningful difference to Putin’s grip on power or his pursuit of this war? Well…
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Sound even smarter:
Remember we flagged the mysterious absence of Putin’s star central banker (Nabiullina) a couple of weeks ago? She’s still missing, and it’s getting harder to believe the Kremlin’s ‘sick leave’ story.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇮🇷 IRAN — Talks are off?
US VP Vance has cancelled plans to travel to Switzerland for the first round of post-deal Iran talks that were scheduled for today (Friday). The main issue seems to be renewed Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, which Iran is using as leverage to demand fresh guarantees. (DW)
Comment: The ink is barely dry on this deal and external factors (Israel-Hezbollah) are already testing it. It still looks like a fragile ceasefire wrapped in pageantry rather than an actual peace deal, though they’ve given themselves 60 days to iron out details their JCPOA predecessors hashed out bitterly over a decade, so for better or worse, anything could still happen.
🇳🇱 THE NETHERLANDS — $300M mystery.
Dutch lithography pioneers ASML are denying US reports that China might’ve sourced one of their ultra-advanced chipmaking machines in violation of strict export controls. (DutchNews)
Comment: The headline alone sounds very “Raiders of the Lost Ark” but it’s worth clarifying these machines can each weigh as much as (say) two Airbus A320s, rely on generations of expertise, feed on niche and traceable supply chains, and demand continued high-tech support to function. You don’t just plug one in then win. And depending on the exact type, there are maybe a couple of hundred in existence. Hence ASML insisting it knows where every single one is now located. Still, there’ve already been reports of failed attempts to reverse-engineer the tech. And any successful diversion would be another breach in the Western export wall, a real-world specimen to study, and another step towards breaking the West’s semiconductor chokehold.
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — Bye👋election.
Popular outgoing Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has won a key by-election, securing his return to parliament after nine years away. He’ll be sworn in as early as next week, and already seems to have the 81 Labour MPs (20%) needed to formally challenge Keir Starmer for leadership of both the party, and the country. (Guardian)
Comment: If this script feels familiar (maybe this fresh new face can save us!), that’s because it is — you could add Burnham to a revolving door of leaders (arguably Cameron, Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Starmer, and beyond) produced by a political system and media hooked on the idea that Britain just needs the right personality at the top. But the country’s deep structural challenges have now humbled more than one saviour.
🇳🇪 NIGER — Jihadist attack.
The Al Qaeda-linked JNIM has claimed responsibility for Thursday’s attack on Niger’s main airport and army base, its second such hit this year. (NYT $)
Comment: The region’s broader ‘coup belt’ (with Mali, Burkina Faso) is becoming a more permissive environment for transnational jihadists. Weirdly, one of the biggest roadblocks to jihadi expansionism has actually been jihadi divisions, including a vicious turf war between JNIM and ISIS-Sahel.
🇧🇷 BRAZIL — Don’t interfere.
President Lula has warned Donald Trump to stay out of Brazil’s October elections, after the US president said Brazil had become “a little rough”. It follows a Brazilian court’s Tuesday decision to sentence Eduardo Bolsonaro to four years in prison for lobbying DC to interfere in his ex-president father’s coup trial. (DW)
Comment: We’re still four months out, but Eduardo’s brother (Flavio) is trailing Lula in the polls. This all somehow makes the stakes higher — Flavio is pledging to pardon his father and presumably now his brother, who faces arrest if/when he returns from the US.
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA — Drone warfare at the World Cup?
Mexico’s military says it had to intervene to neutralise a drone above South Korea’s local training camp ahead of last night’s Mexico vs Korea FIFA face-off in Guadalajara. (Independent)
Comments: It’s hard to know if this was just a random fan, over-eager media, or something else, but you can add sports to the list of sectors now grappling with drone spillover.
🇱🇰 SRI LANKA — Unwelcome visitors.
Authorities have noticed an increase in cybercrimes committed by people entering the country as tourists. (Sri Lanka)
Comments: Sri Lanka seems to be learning a painful lesson folks already absorbed in Thailand and Cambodia — lower your barriers for any tourism and forex push, and you risk creating an unintended backdoor for organised crime. In fact, many of Sri Lanka’s new syndicates seem to be fleeing crackdowns in those same countries.
Extra Intrigue
Intrigue’s commodity corner is back
Oil: While the price of oil has now dipped back below $80 for the first time since March, some are warning the dip won’t last amid low stockpiles, damaged infrastructure, and persistent geopolitical risk.
Copper concentrate: Shipments from Rio Tinto’s giant Oyu Tolgoi mine have resumed after protesters blockaded a key truck route, demanding a greater share of revenue for Mongolia.
Coal: India’s imports of thermal coal (for power plants) have fallen to a four-year low thanks to higher domestic supply and more green energy.
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Faux pas of the day
Credits: Screenshot from a now-deleted Lululemon social media post.
Drums are objectively the coolest instrument, so as far as we’re concerned, the bigger the better. But it turns out there are exceptions, dear Intriguer.
Just ask US-Canadian activewear brand Lululemon, which organised a big tai chi event on the Great Wall featuring screen-star Zhu Yilong belting out a truly sick drum solo — the idea was to connect Lululemon with China’s own long traditions around wellness.
But oops, China’s angry netizens quickly pointed out that the Lululemon-branded drum looked more like a Japanese Taiko drum than a Chinese Dagu. And pretty soon, the surging outrage jumped the firewall from social media over to [gasp] state media!
Why? The Great Wall isn’t just a tourist site, but a potent symbol of national resistance against foreign invaders. And Japan isn’t just any ex-invader, but one whose 20th-century occupation arguably still now carries the most baggage in modern China.
So those marketing gurus at Lululemon somehow swapped appreciation for provocation? Cool pants though.
Friday Games
We’re shaking it up today. Select the odd one out.
Explanation 1: Names of ethnic tribes that are also car names.
Explanation 2: Words used to describe crude oil.
Explanation 3: Wars with animal names in them.