Today’s briefing:
— Lula vs Bolsonaro kicks off
— Oman in the firing line
— Send a (virtual) carrier pigeon
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Lula vs Bolsonaro kicks off
— Oman in the firing line
— Send a (virtual) carrier pigeon
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. It was Stefan Zweig who popularised (via his 1941 book) the idea of Brazil being “the land of the future”.
Self-deprecating Brazilians later added the wry punchline: “and it always will be.”
In today’s briefing on Brazil’s elections, however, the future somehow feels more immediate: polls have collapsed into a technical tie, and Latin America’s largest economy is about to choose between two very different next chapters. Shall we?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
44%
That’s how much copper futures (the standard price gauge) have risen over the past 12 months amid growing AI infrastructure demand. Relatedly, Australian copper giant BHP just reported a 30% yearly increase in underlying profits.
Going Brazilian.
The frontrunners for Brazil’s presidential elections just launched their campaigns on Sunday, ahead of what’s shaping up as a race tighter than your jeans after Carnival.
Yes, there’s the sheer drama of 214 million folks picking between two starkly different visions, whether via the incumbent left’s Lula or the right’s Bolsonaro Jr.
But there’s also what that all means for…
A leading source of critical minerals like niobium (infra, energy, defence)
The world’s top exporter of soybeans, coffee, beef, and sugar, and
A key swing player in this century’s East-West race for dominance.
So with that nervous throat-clearing out of the way, let’s take a look at this two-horse race, starting with…
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
President Lula launched his campaign at the Vila Euclides Stadium near Sao Paulo, and not just for its free wi-fi and convenient parking. Rather, this Onde Tudo Começou (Where Everything Began) event was a very specific flex:
It’s the spot where the former union boss helped end Brazil’s dictatorship, and
He did all that in the 80s while his younger rival was literally still in nappies.
Now asking for a fourth and final term, he’s running on a familiar pro-worker platform (shifting down to a five-day workweek!), plus the kinds of resource nationalism in vogue everywhere else (more local processing).
But he’s also framing himself as Brazil’s defender against two allied forces:
One is (in his telling) the US interventionism revived via Trump 2.0, and
The other is Brazil’s own illiberal populism revived via his rival, Bolsonaro Jr.
Strengths
Lula is pitching himself as the experienced statesman Brazil needs in today’s turbulent world, with a record of solid growth and popular social security policies.
Weaknesses
Critics say he’s too old (81 on inauguration day), has presided over a cost-of-living crisis, and is weak on security and corruption (his own son is under investigation).
And speaking of sons and investigations…
Flavio Bolsonaro
The son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (now doing 27 years for plotting a 2022 coup to stay in power), he launched his campaign on the famous Copacabana beach:
It’s his family’s political stronghold, and
His visible bullet-proof vest (a response to death threats) evoked memories of his father’s 2018 stabbing, plus broader insecurity as a campaign issue.
Anyway, Junior now has quite the balancing act ahead: convince voters he’s the heir to his father’s conservative movement, but not his father’s legal baggage.
Though on that baggage front, he’s pledging to pardon his father, grant amnesty for the 2023 storming of Brasilia, and curb the courts he accuses of overreach.
Strengths
His tough-on-crime vibes (think El Salvador-style megaprisons and jail times) are resonating with a weary electorate, while Brazil’s powerful agribusiness sector loves his pledge to liberalise the economy.
Bolsonaro Jr’s visible family dramas have also earned him a bit of voter sympathy: the Supreme Court has blocked any visits to his dad until after October’s election, while he just publicly reconciled with his step-mum (Brazil’s former first lady).
Weaknesses
Junior’s campaign really took a while to get going, whether due to the leaked tapes of him tapping a disgraced banker for cash, or the delays in finding a running mate: his low-profile internal pick hints at a failure to bring more parties into a coalition.
Plus his tight Trump ties are a mixed bag politically: folks don’t appreciate the tariffs, but some believe Bolsonaro is the ticket to simpler ties with a US giant.
So… who’s going to win? Runoff polls have narrowed sharply to a technical tie, with Lula slightly favoured in a second round. In parallel, Brazilian assets (Ibovespa, real, and bonds) are shuddering at the mix of uncertainty plus Lula favourability.
Intrigue’s Take
There are so many ways to frame all this: a soft launch for a hard choice; a mere repeat of 2022’s Jair vs Lula; or a rank referendum on the entire last decade — reward the redistribution of Lula or the liberalisation of Bolsonaro.
The two that grab our interest most are…
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Intrigue’s Take
There are so many ways to frame all this: a soft launch for a hard choice; a mere repeat of 2022’s Jair vs Lula; or a rank referendum on the entire last decade — reward the redistribution of Lula or the liberalisation of Bolsonaro.
The two that grab our interest most are via markets and capitals. Markets unsurprisingly favour Bolsonaro because he’s offering the classic conservative package of deregulation, tax cuts, and open season for agribusiness. But we still detect some market jitters around the perceived flipside risks of institutional instability, judicial conflict, and international pushback around Amazon safeguards.
The other framing is more nakedly international: Brazil now arguably represents the single largest prize for Trump 2.0’s Donroe Doctrine — it’s the region’s biggest economy and political power, led by an emblematic leftist proudly charting his own course (though still often cautious not to unnecessarily antagonise Trump). Compare that to Bolsonaro Jr, offering to join El Salvador’s Bukele, Peru’s Fujimori, Chile’s Kast, and Argentina’s Milei as another turnkey Trump ally in the region.
But to be clear, that doesn’t mean Junior will (or even can) deliver a full geopolitical realignment here: the same tycoons now cheering his deregulation pitch are also still utterly reliant on China for half their foreign beef sales, 60%+ of their iron ore exports, and 70% of their soy orders. Those three commodities alone make up ~80% of everything Brazil ships to China, which is 3x what Brazil sells to the US!
So even if we do see a Bolsonaro back in the Planalto, he’s not going to pull a Milei and ditch the BRICS (though RICS does sound funny). Rather, he’s more likely to replay his dad’s classic two-step: plenty of rhetoric to keep Trump happy, but paired with a quiet, sub-rosa diplomacy to ensure those bulk ships keep sailing to Shanghai.
Sound even smarter:
Brazil recently blocked a visit by two senior US State Department reps, citing fears they’d try to cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system.
The first round is on Sunday October 4th. A runoff (if no candidate clears 50% in the first) would be on Sunday October 25th.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇴🇲 OMAN — Trump threatens Oman.
President Trump has threatened to bomb Oman (the long-standing US security partner opposite Iran) if it “gets in the way” of an Iran deal. Trump later dialled down the rhetoric, insisting he’s not yet lost patience with Muscat, which is negotiating with Tehran to reopen Hormuz. Meanwhile, the fragile 60-day US-Iran ceasefire has now formally lapsed. (BBC)
Comment: Trump presumably feels he’s lost control of this backchannel, with Iran and Oman now reportedly working on a new transit map that’d see ships entering Hormuz via the Iranian side and exiting via the Omani side. But once you treat Oman’s neutrality as obstruction (Iran has hit it too), the backchannel tends to close. Meanwhile, each cycle of US threats risks becoming another crack in US credibility, whether for friend or foe.
🇲🇽 MEXICO — Bond cartel settles.
The Mexican banking affiliates of BoA, Santander, BBVA, Citi, Deutsche, and HSBC have agreed to pay a cool $86M to settle a long-running US lawsuit over rigging (via private chatrooms) the market for Mexican government bonds. Everyone denies wrongdoing. (Mexico Business News)
Comment: Mexico’s own antitrust probe kicked the whole thing off years ago, before US pension funds (the main plaintiffs) finished it off. JPMorgan and Barclays settled back in 2020.
🇻🇳 VIETNAM — Pixel exits China.
Google has told suppliers it’ll stop making all Pixel smartphones, watches, and earbuds in China from 2027, shifting to Vietnam and India. (Nikkei)
Comment: Google’s hardware division has been quietly shifting production south for years, but this marks the official sunset of the tech giant’s ‘Made in China’ pipeline. It’s now a familiar US Big Tech de-risking move amid China tensions, though will come with its own risks: Vietnam’s electrical grid, for example, is now struggling to meet demand.
🇬🇷 GREECE — Maritime friction rebooted.
The Greek foreign ministry has slammed Turkey’s establishment of two national marine parks which — according to Athens — infringe on Greece’s continental shelf. (The National Herald)
Comment: This is classic Aegean shadow-boxing rather than genuine concern for the seas: Turkey’s Erdogan is using environmentalism to poke back after Greece announced its own marine parks last year. Reminder: these two neighbours are technically allies, but that ‘technically’ seems to be doing some awfully heavy lifting lately.
🇨🇦 CANADA — Bracing for 50% tariffs.
The Canadians are bracing for a fresh round of 50% US tariffs due tomorrow (Wed) on a range of items from cement to hockey gear. (CBC)
Comment: There’s a bewildering array of sectors in the mix, with Trump wanting easier treatment for US dairy and auto, while Canada continues to dangle its F-35 fighter jet plans and push for timber and steel relief. The Canucks have stuck to a strategy of polite negotiation for now, but they’ve already flexed some of their leverage in this trade war, with possible implications for gas and utility bills across the US north-east.
🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Hegseth under fire?
Reports from Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post claim Pete Hegseth is “on the verge of losing his job” due to President Trump’s mounting frustration over the stalled Iran conflict and ongoing Pentagon controversies (like crew welfare aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln). (SCMP $)
Comment: There’s nothing too surprising about this rumour around a guy who rebranded the DoD as the Department of War then failed to win the very next war. What’s more intriguing is the notion of this rumour being first reported by an outlet owned by China’s Alibaba and subject to Party pressure: the SCMP piece is striking for how much praise it lavishes on the current state of US-China ties, leaving us to wonder if this is just Beijing signalling a bit of cabinet anxiety ahead of Xi’s DC visit next month.
🇿🇲 ZAMBIA — Second term locked.
President Hichilema has won a second five-year term with more than 61% of the vote, handily defeating a divided opposition in a tense election cycle marked by opposition arrests. (Al Jazeera)
Comment: HH (as he’s known) pitched himself as the best guy to maintain growth while restructuring Zambia’s crushing debt, but the real balancing act still lies ahead: DC’s single biggest infra project in Africa (the Lobito Corridor) hopes to connect Zambia’s mineral belt to Angola’s Atlantic port (bypassing China-controlled supply chains), but Beijing still remains Zambia’s single biggest creditor.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Skipping UNGA for the Oval?
President Xi is reportedly skipping next month’s annual UN General Assembly in New York, choosing instead to fly straight to DC for his next highly-anticipated summit with President Trump. (Politico)
Comment: Siri, give us the perfect example of a multilateral world rapidly collapsing into bilaterals.
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App of the day
Screenshots yoinked from the App Store
While our world races to control subsea fibre optics, ultra-fast 5G networks, and low-earth orbit constellations, all for that sweet sweet millisecond advantage, we couldn’t help but nod in respect at one new app strolling in the exact opposite direction.
Meet carrier pidge, the app that delivers texts at bird speed!
That’s right: it uses you and your friends’ GPS coordinates plus a carrier pigeon’s top speed (~110mph) to shape delivery — a text across town will be there in a few moments, whereas LA to NYC will take ~22 hours. Overseas? Try a few days.
You can track your virtual pigeon in real time, though for extra realism, 0.2% of all birds just randomly die mid-flight (permanently deleting your text pre-delivery btw).
The app freely admits it has no practical use, though in a world where scandals and crises unnecessarily spiral via social media in real time, we can see the appeal of forced 48-hour cooling-off periods between texts (not to mention texts that never even arrive).
Today’s poll
Two months out from the Brazilian election, who do you think will win?
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think these latest efforts will deliver peace between North and South Korea?
🖋️ Yes, the concessions will bring Kim to the table (6%)
🚀 No, he has no interest in negotiating (94%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
🚀 D.P: “Why should he make a deal? He is getting everything he wants at no cost.”
🖋️ S.L: “Peace would bring Kim international legitimacy.”
✍️ S.H: “Not yet! However, the concessions will invite more diplomatic discussions.”
Our (extra) two cents: We couldn’t squeeze this in yesterday, but behind Trump’s spicy tweet there is (intentional or not) seemingly now closer US-ROK alignment on a more conciliatory approach to the North. We wonder if the net result might be Kim’s eventual return to dialogue (whether or not more dialogue actually goes anywhere).