🌍 Is there a genocide in Nigeria?

President Xi has used Monday’s surprise call with President Trump to reiterate China’s territorial claims over Taiwan as an “integral part of the post-war international order”, and invite Trump to Beijing in April (the US president says he’s accepted). Meanwhile, Trump’s own read-out doesn’t mention Taiwan, instead focusing loosely on trade.

Our quick take? As the dust settles, there are several ways to view this call.

First, leaders always have domestic audiences in mind (trade for Trump, Taiwan for Xi).

Second, China’s reported initiation, last-minute timing, and read-out all paint the call as Beijing’s continued escalation in its spat with Japan over Taiwan, which we explored here.

But third, China’s read-out also goes beyond that spat du jour, calling on the US to join hands in upholding the entire post-WWII order (now implicitly threatened by Japan’s wary comments on China invading Taiwan). It hints at the kind of broader future Xi says China wants: co-existence among fellow giants (rather than joining a US-led order).

Then fourth, there’s the mystery of why Trump then promptly called Japan’s prime minister. Our best guess from that timing and relative silence afterwards is that DC neither wants nor can afford further escalation with China right now, so Trump might’ve nudged this particular US ally to cool it. We’ll keep you posted as further details emerge.

There are all kinds of reasons why Nigeria might pop up in your feed, whether as Africa’s largest democracy (230 million people), its top oil producer, or one of the continent’s biggest economies (thanks to a recent recalculation that boosted its GDP by 30% — could those same economists pls come and help us “recalculate” our revenue here at Intrigue).

But realistically, Nigeria is now hitting our feeds because of the ongoing violence (300+ more children kidnapped from a Catholic school just on Friday), and President Trump’s response (declaring some of the ongoing violence a genocide against Christians).

So… what’s going on?

With kaleidoscopic Nigeria hosting an absolute deluge of hyphens (ethnic-Fulani-Salafist-herder-nationalist-separatists!), it’s worth listening to each group’s words, starting with…

First, there are ISIS-linked groups like Boko Haram, with a name roughly translating to the catchy “Western education is a sin”. It’s a) Salafist (purist theology), b) jihadist (violent tactics), c) seeking its own hardline state in northern Nigeria, and d) ruthlessly exploiting local grievances to expand: think poverty, repression, and resource scarcity.

To be clear, the group openly targets Christians: its late founder (Yusuf) called Christians infidels deserving jihad; his successor (Shekau) vowed to “cleanse” Nigeria of Christians; and the group has still used convert-or-die ultimatums under its current leader Doro (though Niger claims it killed him in an August drone strike).

To be clear again, Boko Haram also kills vast numbers of Muslims who get in its way, variously labelling them apostates, collaborators, and/or collateral damage.

Second, there are criminal gangs (dubbed “bandits”), graduating from their earlier cattle rustling days to now carry out kidnappings, raids, and extortion across Nigeria’s north-west. Thriving in lawlessness and fuelled by arms out of Libya and the Sahel, the biggest bandit groups draw from the north’s ethnic-Fulani-Muslim-majority-herder-communities.

Absolute deluge of hyphens there, but what do these bandits themselves say?

Then third, Nigeria is also fighting long-running separatist movements, like the ethnic Igbo nationalists down south. This ‘Indigenous People of Biafra’ (IPOB) group targets state outposts in hopes of restoring the short-lived Republic of Biafra — Nigeria’s south-east is Christian-majority, though these separatists frame their hits in ethno-political terms.

Okay, then… what about President Trump’s response?

After (again) naming Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern on religious freedom, the US president has now warned Nigeria to halt persecution of Christians or he’ll deploy troops to “completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists.”

Trump’s UN ambassador also hosted rapper Nicki Minaj on this issue in New York last week. And a senior State official just told Congress there are other options in the mix, like sanctions and military engagement (seemingly now in cooperation with Nigeria).

DC’s objective? To “push the Nigerian government to take measurable steps that will improve security, accountability, and religious liberty.”

For its part, Nigeria rejects the genocide label, but says it welcomes US counter-terrorism help.

So… is there a genocide in Nigeria?

We founded Intrigue because, while some friends in the media might generate rage-clicks by pretending otherwise, smart people clearly can (and must) be able to hold multiple truths in their head at once. So we’d offer these humble truths:

First, Boko Haram itself makes clear it is genocidal. It’s weird to pretend otherwise.

Second, the West’s faith blindspot opens gaps for populists willing to use truth as red meat.

Third, there’s often a rush in the West to identify which hyphen applies to which attack, then milk the corresponding righteousness, outrage, and clicks. Yet the reality is that even crystal-clear hyphens like Boko Haram’s Salafist-jihadism leave broad-based devastation, while criminal networks carry out many of their own atrocities against anyone with cash.

And that brings us to…

Fourth, Nigeria tries to shape its responses to avoid exacerbating the hyphens — eg, it deploys mixed-ethnicity, mixed-religion units to a) promote national cohesion, and b) avoid playing into local grievances (like one group seemingly occupying the other).

But fifth, the numbers alone make clear Nigeria’s efforts just aren’t working: the bandit and jihadi toll for the first half of 2025 already exceeded the entire toll for 2024. So maybe the rest of the world just needed kidnappings, a rapper, or a rage tweet to pay attention?

Today’s newsletter is sponsored by Face Off

The U.S.–China relationship generates constant headlines, from skipped G20 meetings to negotiations that could shape Taiwan’s future. Face-Off is an award-winning podcast that cuts through the noise to deliver you the real story, with essential historical context. Hosted by Jane Perlez, longtime foreign correspondent for The New York Times, Face-Off is an inside look at the turbulent relationship between these two superpowers, the men in charge, and the vital issues that affect us all.

Tune into Season 3 today!

According to the latest Polymarket trades, there are…

Jakarta is officially the world’s most populous city (metro area), according to a newly released UN report. The sprawling Indonesian capital now comes in at a staggering ~42 million people, ahead of Dhaka’s ~40 million and Tokyo’s ~33 million. 

Interestingly, Jakarta might soon be the biggest non-capital city, too. In 2019, the Indonesian government announced plans to move the capital to Nusantara, a new location in the Borneo jungle, due to concerns linked to Jakarta’s sinking, overcrowding and pollution. Though of course, those plans are facing plenty of hurdles too.

Yesterday’s poll: If you could poach one world leader for your own government, who would you choose and why? (assuming full loyalty!)

🇨🇳 Xi Jinping (13%)
🇮🇳 Narendra Modi (4%)
🇲🇽 Claudia Sheinbaum (37%)
🇪🇺 Ursula von der Leyen (27%)
🇹🇷 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (3%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (165)

Your two cents: