Today’s briefing:
— Is the Iran war about to get worse?
— Baby Haalands everywhere
— Who wears short shorts
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Is the Iran war about to get worse?
— Baby Haalands everywhere
— Who wears short shorts
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. The confetti has settled, the flags have descended, the vuvuzelas are silent, and office attendance is stabilising: dear Intriguer, that can only mean the sun has now set on the FIFA World Cup. In stats?
Spain is now on a record 38-game winning streak
Argentina’s legendary Messi only touched the ball 54 times that final, and
Kick-off for Spain’s locals was at 9pm, perfect for a nation that (in my experience at least?) treats midnight as prime-time and sunrise as a suggestion.
Congrats to our many Spanish Intriguers, un abrazo for our Argentine friends, and a shout-out to Ferran Torres who scored Spain’s winner, then etched himself into history declaring, “this goal wasn’t just mine — it was scored by 47 million people.”
In the meantime, markets are twitchy and diplomats are tired, as the Iran war takes an ominous turn. Shall we check in?
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
943
That’s how many active wildfires are now burning in Canada, with over 100 deemed ‘out of control’. Smoke has spread across the country and into the US, prompting 20 US states to issue air quality alerts, while the White House warns of more tariffs.
Cost-and-found.
We’re now 143 days into this Iran war, with things taking a dark turn.
Here are seven numbers to understand why, starting with…
Nine
That's how many consecutive nights we've now seen the US hit Iran since talks collapsed, increasingly expanding into infrastructure: think bridges, energy, and reportedly even water. The regime's UN ambassador is labelling that shift a war crime, while the US frames it all as degrading regime command-and-control.
Either way, the broader question is how these resumed US strikes do what the first 100 days couldn't: oust the regime, or at least end this war on US-palatable terms.
17
After Iran’s shock hit on US forces in Jordan last week, that (17) is now how many US service personnel have died during this war, with hundreds more wounded. It’s relatively low for a five-month conflict, and barely a fraction of Iran's toll, which limps well into the thousands.
But the mullahs don't face midterms (or any terms), while US casualties risk slowly a) puncturing DC's narrative that this is a containable war, and thereby b) shifting Trump's strategy, whether via more escalation to flex, or just more urgency to exit.
10
That's how many US allies and partners Iran has now hit across the region, most recently frying critical energy and desal sites in Kuwait. Why? It’s still to force a regional re-think on US costs and benefits, and get allies pushing DC to back off.
Interestingly, however, Iran hasn’t directly targeted Israel in six weeks: the mullahs won't want to hand Bibi a fresh excuse, and Israeli outlets report DC doesn't want Israel directly involved given the risk of losing control or muddying US-Arab ties.
~Zero
That's how many oil and LNG-laden tankers now exit Hormuz for market, down from a daily pre-war average of ~60. In fact, the last such exit was on Wednesday (July 15th). These days, the small trickle of crossings are mostly empty and inbound in hopes the outbound bottleneck might clear by the time they finish loading.
$90+
That's where Brent now trades, up ~30% since the ceasefire collapsed. LNG doesn't have the same kind of price benchmark (freight is a bigger driver), but panicked buyers in Europe and Asia are now bidding spot prices back to four-month highs.
105
That's how many days are left until Americans hit the polls for midterms which will not only determine (say) who controls Congress, but also whether this president gets re-impeached. And realistically, the higher the US casualties and oil prices, plus the lower America’s reserves, munitions, and standing, the tougher that election looks.
But lest you think it's just the US under pressure...
6.1%
That's how much the IMF projects Iran's economy will shrink this year, though that was assuming Hormuz would now be normalising, not freezing. A 10% freefall now looks more likely, adding to triple-digit food inflation, an extra million or so unemployed, and another 44% collapse in a currency already down 99% in a decade!
So… to sum? The reality is both sides are now bleeding (albeit in different currencies), but the core wartime question remains unchanged: who blinks first.
Intrigue’s Take
We’re 143 days into this war, but 143 days is also famous for another reason:…
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Intrigue’s Take
We’re 143 days into this war, but 143 days is also famous for another reason: it’s how long it took the US to design and deliver (from scratch) its first operational jet fighter in WWII. Not an apples-to-apples comparison, and precise US munition stocks are classified, but we’re realistically now looking at years before the US can rebuild some of what it’s now burnt without dislodging this regime.
And while that defence-industrial reality might not clip President Trump’s rhetoric, it’ll inevitably shape his options.
As we’ve long warned, it’s hard to see Hormuz returning to the status quo ante without the US either a) ousting this regime, b) pacifying its Hormuz coast, or c) making some humiliating concessions (like accepting the regime’s Hormuz tolls).
With option a) looking less likely and c) demanding such an ego hit, that spikes the odds we’ll now see some White House attempt at option b), like trying to take one of Iran’s strategic islands. But those islands are all well within range of a regime drone and missile capability that’s proven pretty resilient after months of US strikes.
And yet if President Trump does go for option b), it’s hard to see how that plays out without US casualties spiking higher, particularly given how stretched US air defences now look. But if that’s where this all goes, it potentially reopens the risk of a Vietnam-style quagmire creep, as each new wartime pain-point demands another escalation to fix it, until you wake up in a situation that’s somehow even worse.
Sound even smarter:
The regime reportedly earned $6B in oil sales during the brief ceasefire.
US strategic oil reserves are now at their lowest levels since 1983.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM — Burnham in.
Newly-appointed Labour Party leader Andy Burnham will become Britain’s latest prime minister today (Monday), likely using his first speech to confront the UK’s cost-of-living squeeze and pledge some much-needed stability. (Independent)
Comment: Sure, there’s always an obligatory speech to spell out your agenda and maybe manage some expectations, but with seven leaders (including effective orators) cycling through Number 10 over the past decade, it’s really all now about execution and tough choices ahead.
🇮🇳 INDIA — Cockroach protest advances.
Thousands linked to the youth-led ‘Cockroach Janta Party’ are marching on parliament to demand the education minister’s resignation over an exam scandal, amid shock footage of police dragging a prominent hunger-striker to hospital. The striker’s wife has declared “it is not medical care, it is illegal detention”, while authorities have declared today’s protest illegal. (AP)
Comment: At this point, the whole exam-leak saga is really a lightning rod for broader youth disillusionment and frustration at elite impunity. You’d think Modi would just fire his minister at this point, and that call is only getting louder. But India’s ruling party has a history of digging in, and Modi will be loath to look weak. Yet if these protests defy the bans and keep getting bigger, there’s a risk he ends up looking weak anyway.
🇨🇺 CUBA — Dissident artist exiled.
Prominent Cuban artist and activist Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara has landed in Miami after regime authorities back home exiled him following a five-year jail stint over protest-linked performance art. (Miami Herald)
🇵🇰 PAKISTAN — Say what now?
Pakistani officials and outlets are voicing a bit of alarm after Japan — for the first time — joined India in explicitly calling out cross-border terrorism based in Pakistan. (Nikkei)
Comment: Watch for further signs of the old India-Pakistan rivalry bleeding into the old China-Japan rivalry (and vice versa). Beyond last year’s India-Pakistan war, there are already whispers, for example, of China getting involved in Pakistan’s water dispute with India.
🇵🇬 PAPUA NEW GUINEA —Taiwan office drama.
Papua New Guinea has closed the local Taipei trade office under presumed pressure from China. (Taipei Times)
Comment: It’s a familiar pattern: Beijing trying to squeeze Taiwan’s international space, while smaller players try to balance Eastern opportunity with Western security (PNG recently signed a treaty with Australia). Taiwan has flagged its vast LNG purchases from PNG could now be at risk, though that feels unlikely while the Hormuz squeeze continues. No doubt PNG factored that leverage into its own deliberations.
🇭🇰 HONG KONG — US trade privileges restored?
Beijing is hailing DC’s “positive step” in semi-restoring Hong Kong’s US trade privileges, which Trump 1.0 originally revoked amid a crackdown on the city’s mass pro-democracy demonstrations back in 2020. (NPR)
Comment: Is this US roll-back because Beijing and its Hong Kong authorities ended the crackdown that triggered Trump’s original move? Nope. To the contrary, authorities just arrested five locals over the selling and displaying of books! Rather, this is presumably a US concession in ongoing US-China talks. The rest of the world will wonder what else is negotiable.
🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION — Sanctions solidarity cracking?
Various European countries (including Greece, France, Italy, Germany, Austria, and Portugal) are reportedly pushing for carve-outs to protect their corporates from the next planned round of sanctions against Russia. (FT $)
Comment: What was meant to be a unified hammer to Putin’s war machine is again devolving into the usual Brussels negotiation marathon. We wonder whether Ukraine’s recent momentum is giving the EU the sense it can now afford to coast a little more? Lithuania’s former FM and friend of Intrigue (Landsbergis) just put it like this: “While allies discussed the impossibility of controlling the Black Sea, Ukraine took control of it. Allies bought oil, Ukraine bombed refineries. Now allies avoid sanctioning the shadow fleet, so Ukraine sinks it. Maybe we should stop pretending we are in the driving seat here.”
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
Peru’s national identity register now has 468 new baby Haalands (after Norway’s star World Cup striker).
Ontario is reminding residents not to bring live grenades to police departments.
An 86-year-old Brit has been (lightly) injured running the bulls in Pamplona.
A Florida retiree has been shocked to receive a new "SQZ A55" licence plate.
And a Minnesota grandma has managed to get happy hour reinstated at care homes.
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Fashion crime of the day
Brace yourselves, Tokyo. Unrelated old pic courtesy of Channel 4
If there’s any space left at The Hague, they should really consider a new court focused entirely on international fashion crime. We’re talking:
👖 Jorts
🧦 Socks with sandals
🩳 Cargo shorts with dress shirts
📟 Tucked-in polos with belt-holstered phones, and
🐊 Crocs.
And yet in Tokyo — birthplace of the immaculate salaryman suit — the city government just decriminalised one of the above looks: shorts in the office!
That’s right, expanding the capital’s ‘Cool Biz’ campaign, Governor Yuriko Koike says city bureaucrats can now bare some of that sweet sweet leg. Why?
With energy prices spiking and city temperatures breaking new records, why crank the AC when you can just… wear less?
No more skipping leg day and hiding those office calves, people.
Today’s poll
Where do you now think this US-Iran war ends after this latest escalation?
Thursday’s poll: Do you think the US will succeed in dismantling the ICC?
🔨 Yes, it has enormous leverage (13%)
❌ No, the court's support is too broad (84%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
❌ E.H: “Maybe this will do for the Court what Hormuz did for green energy — demonstrate that the US definitely doesn't have anyone else's interests in mind, and you better find some way to protect yourself.”
🔨N.P: “Of course, ‘dismantling’ it doesn't need to involve actually disestablishing the organisation, just rendering it too weak to function even in the limited capacity it currently does.”
✍️ B: “Who really cares? If the press didn't make a big deal out of their every proclamation, no one would know they even existed.”
✍️ P: “This is just another episode showcasing the fading relevance of international law amongst the non-middle powers.”