Today’s briefing:
— Iran’s glaring funeral absence
— Why Australia’s PM is sorry
— Hot new destination just dropped
Your Insider’s briefing:
— Iran’s glaring funeral absence
— Why Australia’s PM is sorry
— Hot new destination just dropped
Good morning {{first_name | Intriguer}}. I’ve got a new word you can slip smugly into conversation next time you’re lost for topics at that work party: ‘laminar’.
In fluid dynamics, laminar flow is the dream state — perfectly smooth, orderly, no turbulence, with every particle moving exactly where the system wants it to go.
You know when you turn on a tap and the initial chaotic splash resolves into a perfect, glassy stream that almost looks motionless? That’s laminar.
I mention this state only because I’m pretty sure it simply doesn’t exist in diplomacy. In fact, my own experience on the inside pointed towards the exact opposite: turbulent flow. Aka crossed signals, missed windows, weird eddies, full-blown splash.
That’s how you end up with Iran’s regime surviving a full US-Israel war, then mobilising millions for a historic state funeral seeking to project unbreakable unity, yet somehow still missing one key figure right at the centre of it all. Let’s dive in.
 | Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker |
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Number of the day
188,000 barrels
That’s how much OPEC+ just agreed to raise oil output from August. A modest bump amid falling prices, it’s a way to keep OPEC members happy after the UAE’s shock exit.
Frenzied farewell.
Four months after US-Israeli strikes killed him, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader finally got his funeral over the weekend. But it was less casseroles and condolences, and more a regime flex for the ages, starting with…
The timing
Iran’s regime kicked things off on Saturday, which is intriguing for two reasons.
First, Shiite tradition demands a prompt burial, but the regime opted for the politics of a delayed spectacle, over the theology of any prompt wartime rites. And lest any clerics object, this funeral also now falls in the Shiite mourning month of Muharram.
Plus second, this Saturday was obviously the same day the US celebrated its 250th July 4th — that’s realistically an intentional overlap that syncs the religious ritual with a show of defiance against the US, particularly as US-Iran talks limp on. Then let's look at...
The scale
This is not your standard black suits and finger sandwiches affair. Rather, this spectacle is...
Multi-day, stretching six straight days through Thursday
Millions deep, with the regime hoping to draw crowds totalling 30 million
Cross-border, passing over into Iraq's cities of Najaf and Karbala, and…
Multi-city, rolling through to the holy city of Qom and on until burial in his birth city of Mashhad.
The message? It's about highlighting the regime's continued power not only across Iran and the broader Shiite world, but even throughout history itself: bigger than Khomeini's 1989 mega-funeral. After a full US-Israeli war, it’s all "we're as strong as ever."
So with that big stage set, it’s time to look at…
The attendees
This was not your standard close family and frolleagues affair. Rather, attendees covered...
The regime (IRGC's Vahidi, Qaani from Quds), the Khameneis (three of his sons), civilian hardliners (Speaker Qalibaf), and figureheads (President Pezeshkian)
Senior reps from all of Iran’s neighbours (Pakistan, Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan), and...
Delegations from 100 other nations, like Russia's Medvedev (he somehow found the fuel), China's He Wei (vice-chair of China's top legislative body), and beyond.
The message? Flipping the funeral into a summit, it's really about declaring that this regime is still a) unified (factions) b) legitimate (sons), and c) far from isolated (VIPs).
So with that crowd assembled, what’d they say…?
The eulogy
The most high-profile remarks actually came from a poet, Mohammad Rasouli. Rather than drop a gentle haiku about peaceful valleys and eternal rest, he went straight for "why is the most bastard man in the world still alive?" and "Trump's killing is our duty", drawing loud cheers and "Death to America".
Iran's 97-year-old Grand Ayatollah (Sobhani) then led the traditional prayers, though he still framed Khamenei as a martyr killed in the path of god — that's standard for any deaths in conflict, elevating any single end into a source of collective resistance.
But somehow, even all the above potentially fades compared to...
The absence
The old supreme leader's successor and son, Mojtaba Khamenei, didn't actually turn up to his own father’s funeral! No photo op. No prayer. No cameo.
Why? The closest thing we have to an official explanation comes from a cleric called Hakim Elahi, now serving as Mojtaba's personal envoy (not ambassador) in India. He told Indian media the boss would skip the funeral because "security threats and surveillance risks have made it unsafe for him to appear in public."
Of course, there's precedent here: Iran’s last major state funeral (for the ex-president who died in a chopper crash) enabled Israel to assassinate the visiting leader of Hamas.
But the regime still hasn’t released a single fresh pic of Mojtaba since he supposedly succeeded his father four months ago, while other presumed top Israeli targets (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) all still attended his father’s funeral this weekend.
So at this point, Mojtaba's continued absence really fuels doubts around his health and grip on power amid rumours he’s dead, comatose, disfigured, or otherwise out of action — such a truth might undercut the 'seamless succession' narrative justifying regime rule.
In sum? Iran really threw the mother of all funerals to prove it's still strong. But all the chants, crowds, and VIPs still weren't enough to obscure the elephant in the (otherwise very crowded and highly choreographed) room: is Iran’s new leader even alive?
Intrigue’s Take
Muster all the millions and poets and chants you want, but if the heir apparent can’t safely appear at his own father’s funeral, it raises questions about…
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Sound even smarter:
President Trump agreed to pause US-Iran talks for this week’s funeral formalities.
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Meanwhile, elsewhere…
🇧🇪 BELGIUM — Red card.
Belgium’s football body (with rumoured European backing to come) has said it’s “astonished” by FIFA’s decision to suspend a red card issued against star US striker Folarin Balogun, meaning Balogun can now play in today’s critical knockout against Belgium. The New York Times is reporting FIFA suspended the red card after President Trump made a call to FIFA boss Gianni Infantino. (RBFA)
Comment: While a rarity, it’s also classic FIFA — rules are rules until a commercially key team is hit, then maybe they’re flexible. There are threats to appeal, though it’s unclear how at this point — whether FIFA’s disciplinary committee or the Court of Arbitration for Sport in Lausanne, these things take time.
🇨🇳 CHINA — Set free.
After more than 250 days in custody amid a Party crackdown on his large underground church, prominent Beijing pastor Ezra Jin has now reunited with his family in the US. His release comes a few weeks after President Trump raised the case directly with Xi Jinping in Beijing. (NYT $)
Comment: With China’s Christian community potentially surpassing the country’s ruling Communist Party in numbers (~100 million), Xi’s crackdown seems likely to continue. Btw, these last two stories point to two sides of the same transactional Trump: whether reversing a red card or freeing a pastor, it’s all about the deal.
🇸🇩 SUDAN — Another atrocity?
The UN has warned of another catastrophe unfolding in Sudan, where the country’s notorious RSF paramilitary is besieging yet another city (al-Obeid), home to half a million people. When RSF forces besieged a city last year, they massacred 6,000 locals within three days of its fall. (UN News)
Comment: There’ll (again) be no protests over a war the world has long forgotten. But al-Obeid sits on vital supply routes, and its fall could tilt the balance in the RSF’s favour across central Sudan.
🇲🇾 MALAYSIA — Not at those prices.
Kuala Lumpur has introduced new import rules that effectively block many low-cost China-made EVs from the Malaysian market. (CarNewsChina)
Comment: We’ve long flagged the way China’s overcapacity plus America’s tariffs leave markets elsewhere vulnerable to wipeout. And absent any sign of a China course-correct, you can now add Malaysia to the list of those responding with their own tariffs (Malaysia makes its own Proton cars). Meanwhile, as Germany grapples with the same historic challenge, the Journal just published a grim update on the country’s Mittelstand (midsize manufacturers now shedding jobs amid China pressure).
🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA — Interesting timing.
China has test-launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile from a submarine in the South Pacific, just hours after Australia signed a security pact with Fiji. (Independent)
Comment: That Fiji deal is another win for Australia, still repairing its regional standing after China’s shock 2022 security pact with Solomon Islands. As for China’s response? It’s hard to see it as anything other than ham-fisted, realistically validating the region’s wariness towards China.
🇮🇩 INDONESIA — Separatists kill US pilot.
Papuan separatists have claimed responsibility for the shooting of a US pilot who made an emergency landing in a remote area of Indonesia’s Papua province. (BBC)
Comment: A rare direct attack on a Westerner in one of Indonesia’s most sensitive regions, it’ll complicate Jakarta’s efforts to downplay this separatism internationally, though will also fuel its claims that toughness is warranted. The separatists themselves argue the US pilot was a mercenary helping ferry Indonesian troops.
🇹🇷 TURKEY — Pre-summit jitters.
Ahead of tomorrow’s NATO summit in Ankara, Turkish authorities have arrested 100+ protestors in an anti-NATO march led by local communists. (Reuters)
Comment: Even if these leftist groups are pretty marginal in Erdogan’s Turkey, it’s still a timely reminder of his balancing act as a NATO member playing all sides, while atop a populace only registering ~30% support for the alliance. Summit attendees will include France’s Macron, Germany’s Merz, Britain’s outgoing Starmer, America’s Trump, Ukraine’s Zelensky, and even Syria’s al-Sharaa.
Extra Intrigue
🤣 Your weekly round-up of the world’s lighter news
Australia’s newly-married prime minister has apologised after nominating popstar Kylie Minogue in a comedy podcast’s game of ‘shag, marry, date’.
US authorities have recalled ‘Dirty’ brand potato chips over a salmonella risk.
An Alaskan court has allowed Dan Sullivan to challenge Dan Sullivan in a senate election (though the DoJ is now investigating).
A Singaporean court has jailed a Malaysian national for fraud, even though his own cartel fired him for incompetence after three days.
And a missing dog has re-appeared months later, partying with World Cup fans in Mexico.
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Destination of the day
Cape Verde’s northern-most island of Santo Antão. Pic courtesy of the Cape’s tourism body
As the FIFA World Cup hurtles into its final stretch, we need a shout out for the 550,000-person island nation that just completed arguably the most charming underdog run of the tournament, barely losing to defending champs Argentina.
You’ve probably heard the greatest hits: the team recruited key players via LinkedIn, more Cape Verdeans live abroad than on the islands themselves, and their star 40-year-old keeper (from Portugal’s second division) just amassed 27 million followers overnight.
But as the Blue Sharks return to a hero’s welcome — full open-top truck treatment on independence day — keep an eye on what comes next: for a nation heavily reliant on tourism, no marketing budget on Earth could’ve matched the way this team single-handedly just got millions to switch from “wait, where is that?” to “omg let’s go.”
One Intriguer and serving G7 diplomat who’s been there described the place to us like this: “The northern most island of the archipelago, Santo Antão, is probably the most beautiful place I've ever been. Each island feels completely unique. Vamos Cabo Verde!”
Today’s poll
Why do you think Iran's supreme leader missed the funeral?
Thursday’s poll: How do you feel about America's future?
🇺🇸 The best is yet to come (27%)
🤔 I got a bad feeling about this (72%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
🤔 L.H: “The American-exceptionalist (or defeatist), anti-world paranoia transcends party lines and age groups. It is a defining feature of our current politics and will have generational impacts.”
🇺🇸 A.M.M: “I am a WWII baby and have seen this country rebel, walk on the moon, and so on. After all, this whole Republic thing is one grand experiment, 50 individual states, the freedom of movement and an extremely strong sense of self.”
✍️ E.K.H: “It's going to get better because I'm determined to make it better. I refuse to let this be the generation that inherited this incredible legacy and squandered it.”